Houston Astros cling to slim playoff hopes behind Roy Oswalt
Game Time: 09/25/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Willie Bee | sbrforum.com
Houston sends ace Roy Oswalt to the mound with their playoff chances on the line. Astros on the run line makes the most sense when they host the Cincinnati Reds.
I was telling someone at SBRchat the other day and told them to fade the Houston Astros until they won. Well they finally won a couple last weekend in Pittsburgh and again last night, and they’re now about to face the Reds at home in the rubber match of the series with a pitcher on the mound who has completely dominated the Reds over his career.
In my preseason sims the Astros came up around the 84-win mark for best case and 73 for the worst case. So they’re right at that top end presently. Imagine where they’d be without the slow start by Roy Oswalt and Mother Nature.
Separated at birth?
Speaking of Oswalt, he’s 22-1 lifetime against the Reds. No, my fat digits didn’t muck that stat up, 22-1. In an effort to remain krunk with the times, I think that means Cincinnati is pwned. After his slow start, Oswalt has been hotter than a $20 pistol lately and this will be his last start before being called back on short rest next Monday to make up one of those Hurricane Ike games against the Chicago Cubs. I got it on good gossip from a poster at another site who has a brother that is a Cubs fan and knows someone that used to work for a guy who knew someone that worked for the Trib, and he said the North Siders are already coming up with lame excuses not to play in that game next Monday when it’s made up in Houston.
Lance Berkman is another one who has enjoyed facing the Reds. Fat Elvis has been in a bad slump really, with just three hits since the Astros' season was interrupted by Hurricane Ike. One of those three hits came last night when he knocked one out at Arthur Andersen Memorial in Houston’s 5-0 win over the Reds. But he has feasted on Cincinnati’s starting hurler tonight, Johnny Cueto, albeit a short sampling at 4-for-7 (.571, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R).
Cueto is facing the Astros for a fourth time this season, and the Reds are 0-3. In the one start he made in Houston, he was charged with five runs in six innings, and an 8:11 grounder-to-fly ratio. He has surrendered four homers in 18 innings to the ‘Stros, with Carlos Lee, Geoff Blum and Kaz Matsui owning the other three besides Berkman’s.
Jerry Meals is expected to be behind the mask for this one, his 34th contest calling the pitches with the home team 14-19 SU so far. He is 21-12 overall on the O/U, and 0-2 O/U when the number is set at 7½ as it sits presently. If you happen to put a lot of weight on an umpire, then you probably want to take the Under with the combination of Oswalt pitching and the Astros bats in a bit of a funk.
However, if you look a little closer at the stats, the previous two 7½ totals Meals has worked came at pitchers parks in Atlanta and San Fran. This is his first game south of the plate in Houston this year; in fact, it's his first game to call balls and strikes in an Astros game period in 2008. Meals did call one of Oswalt's starts in Houston last year in September, with Roy O chunking seven innings, striking out six and giving up one unearned run before the Bayou City pen upchucked.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor with a roof on the damn stadium, but I suspect they will have the roof open with a slight wind from the RF corner to the LF corner maybe when the game starts and then dying off to a breeze. First pitch maybe around 82°F and then cooling off eventually into the mid-60s. Maybe a bit humid, but very pleasant otherwise by Houston standards.
The Astros line is in the -180s, with a few higher marks. I hate playing that much juice, being the tightwad that I am. But if Houston is going to keep playoff hpes alive, this is the biggest must-win for them of the season as the sit 3½ behind the Mets and Brewers in the wild card chase.
After last night's victory, Oswalt was the first player off the bench to get into the High 5 conga line on the field. He looked like he wanted to pitch right then. Reliever Doug Brocail also told FSN a few days ago that this team is really focused on at least forcing that make-up with the Cubs next Monday, and though the odds are long, the Astros fan inside me can't help but believe they will. I'm playing the Astros on the run line (-1½, +105).
Game Time: 09/25/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Willie Bee | sbrforum.com
Houston sends ace Roy Oswalt to the mound with their playoff chances on the line. Astros on the run line makes the most sense when they host the Cincinnati Reds.
I was telling someone at SBRchat the other day and told them to fade the Houston Astros until they won. Well they finally won a couple last weekend in Pittsburgh and again last night, and they’re now about to face the Reds at home in the rubber match of the series with a pitcher on the mound who has completely dominated the Reds over his career.
In my preseason sims the Astros came up around the 84-win mark for best case and 73 for the worst case. So they’re right at that top end presently. Imagine where they’d be without the slow start by Roy Oswalt and Mother Nature.
Separated at birth?
Speaking of Oswalt, he’s 22-1 lifetime against the Reds. No, my fat digits didn’t muck that stat up, 22-1. In an effort to remain krunk with the times, I think that means Cincinnati is pwned. After his slow start, Oswalt has been hotter than a $20 pistol lately and this will be his last start before being called back on short rest next Monday to make up one of those Hurricane Ike games against the Chicago Cubs. I got it on good gossip from a poster at another site who has a brother that is a Cubs fan and knows someone that used to work for a guy who knew someone that worked for the Trib, and he said the North Siders are already coming up with lame excuses not to play in that game next Monday when it’s made up in Houston.
Lance Berkman is another one who has enjoyed facing the Reds. Fat Elvis has been in a bad slump really, with just three hits since the Astros' season was interrupted by Hurricane Ike. One of those three hits came last night when he knocked one out at Arthur Andersen Memorial in Houston’s 5-0 win over the Reds. But he has feasted on Cincinnati’s starting hurler tonight, Johnny Cueto, albeit a short sampling at 4-for-7 (.571, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R).
Cueto is facing the Astros for a fourth time this season, and the Reds are 0-3. In the one start he made in Houston, he was charged with five runs in six innings, and an 8:11 grounder-to-fly ratio. He has surrendered four homers in 18 innings to the ‘Stros, with Carlos Lee, Geoff Blum and Kaz Matsui owning the other three besides Berkman’s.
Jerry Meals is expected to be behind the mask for this one, his 34th contest calling the pitches with the home team 14-19 SU so far. He is 21-12 overall on the O/U, and 0-2 O/U when the number is set at 7½ as it sits presently. If you happen to put a lot of weight on an umpire, then you probably want to take the Under with the combination of Oswalt pitching and the Astros bats in a bit of a funk.
However, if you look a little closer at the stats, the previous two 7½ totals Meals has worked came at pitchers parks in Atlanta and San Fran. This is his first game south of the plate in Houston this year; in fact, it's his first game to call balls and strikes in an Astros game period in 2008. Meals did call one of Oswalt's starts in Houston last year in September, with Roy O chunking seven innings, striking out six and giving up one unearned run before the Bayou City pen upchucked.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor with a roof on the damn stadium, but I suspect they will have the roof open with a slight wind from the RF corner to the LF corner maybe when the game starts and then dying off to a breeze. First pitch maybe around 82°F and then cooling off eventually into the mid-60s. Maybe a bit humid, but very pleasant otherwise by Houston standards.
The Astros line is in the -180s, with a few higher marks. I hate playing that much juice, being the tightwad that I am. But if Houston is going to keep playoff hpes alive, this is the biggest must-win for them of the season as the sit 3½ behind the Mets and Brewers in the wild card chase.
After last night's victory, Oswalt was the first player off the bench to get into the High 5 conga line on the field. He looked like he wanted to pitch right then. Reliever Doug Brocail also told FSN a few days ago that this team is really focused on at least forcing that make-up with the Cubs next Monday, and though the odds are long, the Astros fan inside me can't help but believe they will. I'm playing the Astros on the run line (-1½, +105).