tampa vs cleveland

[ryanXL977]

garza is increidlbe at home, so how is he overrated? he does nto lose or allow runs, or baserunners, for that matter

[ArenaPlaya]

I hope Navarro doesnt beat him up

[ryanXL977]

thats a factor you need to put into capping!

[ryanXL977]

i suppose its just a coincidence that tb wins so much at home eh badbeat?

[BadBeatBodog]

Garza has a .260 BAbip at home, that's why he's so overrated at Tropicana.

[ryanXL977]

then i guess he strikes out a ton of dudes

[LT Profits]

I bet Cleveland AND the Under here, although I got the Under at -115. In what should be a low-scoring game, why not back the dog with the better starter? If Lee goes at least seven innings, it will neutralize Tampa Bay's bullpen edge.

[ryanXL977]

lee often goes less than 7 however

[LT Profits]

Oh and ryan, there IS value in getting the current favorite to win the Cy Young Award at + money, regardless of the teams.

[ryanXL977]

i agree, i did cleve as one of my best bets today
i do not , however, think that the difference between lee and garza is negated by the difference between the home team advantage AND the pen advantage.

i simply like cleve bc no crawford or bartlett

[LT Profits]

Didn't you say in this thread that TB should win today?

And by the way. Lee is AVERAGING 6.98 innings per start.

[maritime]

tamps is better than cleve
tampa is better at home than anyone
cleve has no pen

so you guys are betting cleveland solely bc of cliff lee

thats makes no sense at all
bad idea

so...betting on a team just because there playing at home makes more sense? Pretty in depth capping technique I must say. Team A has better record, team A is better at home, bet on Team A. Wow, we're all gonna make lots of $ with this new method.

[ryanXL977]

thats under 7 innings

read all my posts, i switched to lee. its probably dumb bc tampa doesnt lose at home
once i saw crawford was out i switched to cleve

[maritime]

TB is primed to lose tonight. For many reasons. Getting Lee is only a bonus.

[BadBeatBodog]

That's not what BAbip means Ryan. It's amazing that you discard it when you don't even know what it is...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#babip

While a pitcher can control how hard balls are hit off him, like he can control strike outs and walks, once the ball is hit it's out of the pitcher's control. Pitchers' BAbip, because of that, should not deviate from ~.290, and when it does, regression should be expected.

[ryanXL977]

the fact you guys think starting pitchers matter mroe than teams records is mind boggling

you can use any made up stat you want, i can win without them. i always do

[ryanXL977]

and if a regression is due, if i humor you, then you think you can pick and choose when that regression may occur? bc it sure didnt occur vs the jays and their mighty offense

[BadBeatBodog]

It doesn't happen over one game... In fact, his BAbip might not even get too close to .290 by the end of the year. But it DOES mean he most likely will not be nearly as good going forwards, which makes him a fade candidate. See my thinking?

In other words, people look at his numbers like ERA, WHIP, BAA, etc... and they all look very good. But they're bolstered by an unsustainable BAbip, which is sure to rise along with the other numbers, all of which makes him overrated.

[LT Profits]

That's not what BAbip means Ryan. It's amazing that you discard it when you don't even know what it is...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#babip

While a pitcher can control how hard balls are hit off him, like he can control strike outs and walks, once the ball is hit it's out of the pitcher's control. Pitchers' BAbip, because of that, should not deviate from ~.290, and when it does, regression should be expected.

I know what you are saying but it is not 100% ture, Pitchers that intentionally pitch to contact like Maddux in his prime know how to keep the ball off the fat part off the bat, so if they have a lower OBA on balls in play, it is not an accident.

[ryanXL977]

many pitchers like webb, lowe, aaron cook, halladay, pitch to contact

[LT Profits]

And NO, that is not the case with Garza.

[BadBeatBodog]

I know what you are saying but it is not 100% ture, Pitchers that intentionally pitch to contact like Maddux in his prime know how to keep the ball off the fat part off the bat, so if they have a lower OBA on balls in play, it is not an accident.

Yes, that's why I said pitchers CAN control how hard balls are hit.

[ryanXL977]

any game , any pitchers, any team , any hitters

i can find a stat that shows why one side should be bet over another

anybody can do it

[LT Profits]

Yes, that's why I said pitchers CAN control how hard balls are hit.

Right, but my point is that deviation from .290 is not abnormal for those type of guys and they don't necessarily revert to the mean as much as power pitchers do.

[ryanXL977]

i guess we will find out today who is better

[ryanXL977]

cliff lee, if this guy is cy young than you guys need to share your weed

ps. share your weed either way

[ertl09]

escaped the first inning after getting 2 guys with no outs

[ryanXL977]

i hope he wins, its one of my best bets

[LT Profits]

Lee would win Cy Young if season ended right now solely based on his record, but Halladay is still the best pitcher in baseball.

[Dashwood Clipper]

Lee would win Cy Young if season ended right now solely based on his record, but Halladay is still the best pitcher in baseball.

No argument here

[ryanXL977]

anyone wanna wager cliff lee wont SNIFF 7 innings today

[ryanXL977]

cliff lee,
you guys are hilarious

[ryanXL977]

asdrubals dick is on hard

[LT Profits]

cliff lee,
you guys are hilarious

What are you saying, that he would NOT win the Cy Young if the season ended right now? I say he'd be the odds-on favorite.

Now is he the best pitcher in the AL, definitely not. But that doesn't matter to the voters that put too much emphasis on W/L record.

[ryanXL977]

dont you think halladay will get it

of course i thought that about johan in 05 and they gave it to fatty colon

unreal
that was horrid
you are possibly right