Cardinals & Padres betting on strong second halves
The St. Louis Cardinals have been a mild surprise this season, currently sitting in the catbird seat for the NL Wild Card. But they'll need to play as well or better down the stretch to continue play in October. The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, have been a huge bust as they sit 21 games below .500 in the NL West basement. Can Jake Peavy help the Pads at least play a spoiler's role?
The All-Star break is a little shorter for the eight MLB teams in action on Thursday. It might not affect their betting odds right now, but if you’re the St. Louis Cardinals you need all the help you can get to make it down the stretch and into the playoffs.
St. Louis went into the break with a 53-43 record, holding down second place in the National League Central and collecting 10.8 units of profit for Cardinals supporters. That’s still 4½ games behind the Chicago Cubs, who improved their postseason chances by acquiring Rich Harden in a trade with Oakland. The Cards also have to contend with the Milwaukee Brewers, who got C.C. Sabathia from Cleveland and sit only a half-game behind St. Louis in the standings.
A four-game set at home against the stumbling San Diego Padres (37-58, -24.21 units) could put the Cardinals right behind Chicago in a very short time. But Thursday’s series opener won’t be easy. The Padres are starting their ace, two-time All-Star and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy (2.47 ERA, 3.52 xFIP).
Peavy missed some time earlier this season with a strained elbow; however, the right-handed wizard has allowed just seven runs in six games since coming off the disabled list. His last two appearances before the break were gems; Atlanta and Arizona combined for zero runs on seven hits in 14 innings as the Padres improved to 7-8 (-4.00 units) with Peavy on the mound.
While Peavy continues to pitch at his usual Cy-worthy level, the Cardinals are getting more than they expected from Kyle Lohse (3.39 ERA, 4.52 xFIP). The journeyman righty has a personal 11-2 record and has led St. Louis to the pay window in 13 of 20 starts for a profit of 6.09 units. He’s no Peavy, but he doesn’t have to be when the Cardinals are giving him 4.70 runs of support per game compared to 4.20 for his Padres counterpart.
The Cards would cash in even more often if their bullpen wasn’t rated 25th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA, one notch below San Diego at 4.27. St. Louis relievers have an MLB-worst 22 blown saves and a 13-20 record, including 4-8 in extra innings. Injuries have held the Cardinals’ pitching staff down all season; closer Jason Isringhausen (lacerated right hand) has seen his ERA balloon from 2.48 to 5.97, easily his worst in nine years of full-time relief duty.
San Diego won’t be crying a river for the Cards. Injuries have ruined what was already a dubious 2008 season for the Fathers; most recently, catcher Michael Barrett (.571 OPS in limited duty) fouled a pitch into his own face, joining fellow catcher Josh Bard (.539 OPS, sprained ankle) and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi (.668 OPS, separated right shoulder) on the sidelines. Petco Park is partly to blame for those awful batting numbers – the Padres’ home stadium has a .848 park factor on runs scored. Yet the Pads as a team only improve from .694 OPS at home to .699 OPS on the road. They are truly awful at the plate, pushing the under to a 53-40-2 record.
The Cardinals are ranked No. 5 in the league in hitting at .779 OPS (.752 OPS at home), staying in the Central hunt despite their overall pitching woes and a run differential of +23. That translates to a pythagorean record of 51-45. The Padres, on the other hand, are right on their expected win-loss record at 37-58, having allowed 91 more runs on the season than they’ve scored.
The superior St. Louis hitting is enough to negate the effect of Peavy’s dominance on the betting line. The Cardinals are -120 favorites with a total of 7½ runs; game time is 8:15 p.m. Eastern.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been a mild surprise this season, currently sitting in the catbird seat for the NL Wild Card. But they'll need to play as well or better down the stretch to continue play in October. The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, have been a huge bust as they sit 21 games below .500 in the NL West basement. Can Jake Peavy help the Pads at least play a spoiler's role?
The All-Star break is a little shorter for the eight MLB teams in action on Thursday. It might not affect their betting odds right now, but if you’re the St. Louis Cardinals you need all the help you can get to make it down the stretch and into the playoffs.
St. Louis went into the break with a 53-43 record, holding down second place in the National League Central and collecting 10.8 units of profit for Cardinals supporters. That’s still 4½ games behind the Chicago Cubs, who improved their postseason chances by acquiring Rich Harden in a trade with Oakland. The Cards also have to contend with the Milwaukee Brewers, who got C.C. Sabathia from Cleveland and sit only a half-game behind St. Louis in the standings.
A four-game set at home against the stumbling San Diego Padres (37-58, -24.21 units) could put the Cardinals right behind Chicago in a very short time. But Thursday’s series opener won’t be easy. The Padres are starting their ace, two-time All-Star and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy (2.47 ERA, 3.52 xFIP).
Peavy missed some time earlier this season with a strained elbow; however, the right-handed wizard has allowed just seven runs in six games since coming off the disabled list. His last two appearances before the break were gems; Atlanta and Arizona combined for zero runs on seven hits in 14 innings as the Padres improved to 7-8 (-4.00 units) with Peavy on the mound.
While Peavy continues to pitch at his usual Cy-worthy level, the Cardinals are getting more than they expected from Kyle Lohse (3.39 ERA, 4.52 xFIP). The journeyman righty has a personal 11-2 record and has led St. Louis to the pay window in 13 of 20 starts for a profit of 6.09 units. He’s no Peavy, but he doesn’t have to be when the Cardinals are giving him 4.70 runs of support per game compared to 4.20 for his Padres counterpart.
The Cards would cash in even more often if their bullpen wasn’t rated 25th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA, one notch below San Diego at 4.27. St. Louis relievers have an MLB-worst 22 blown saves and a 13-20 record, including 4-8 in extra innings. Injuries have held the Cardinals’ pitching staff down all season; closer Jason Isringhausen (lacerated right hand) has seen his ERA balloon from 2.48 to 5.97, easily his worst in nine years of full-time relief duty.
San Diego won’t be crying a river for the Cards. Injuries have ruined what was already a dubious 2008 season for the Fathers; most recently, catcher Michael Barrett (.571 OPS in limited duty) fouled a pitch into his own face, joining fellow catcher Josh Bard (.539 OPS, sprained ankle) and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi (.668 OPS, separated right shoulder) on the sidelines. Petco Park is partly to blame for those awful batting numbers – the Padres’ home stadium has a .848 park factor on runs scored. Yet the Pads as a team only improve from .694 OPS at home to .699 OPS on the road. They are truly awful at the plate, pushing the under to a 53-40-2 record.
The Cardinals are ranked No. 5 in the league in hitting at .779 OPS (.752 OPS at home), staying in the Central hunt despite their overall pitching woes and a run differential of +23. That translates to a pythagorean record of 51-45. The Padres, on the other hand, are right on their expected win-loss record at 37-58, having allowed 91 more runs on the season than they’ve scored.
The superior St. Louis hitting is enough to negate the effect of Peavy’s dominance on the betting line. The Cardinals are -120 favorites with a total of 7½ runs; game time is 8:15 p.m. Eastern.
