Thursday's card

[No coincidences]

Not much to see.

Leans:

KC +103
FLA +145 (G-1)
OAK +108

SF/COL over 8.5
CLE/TEX over 9.5
FLA/PHI under 8.5 (G-1)

[guil0000]

on oak and debating Florida G1 also

[No coincidences]

on oak and debating Florida G1 also

Normally this would be an automatic play for me, but man, the Tigers just don't lose.

[thebestthereis]

quick note to people on earth. if a team has won 12 in a row and are not a -300 ml favorite you don't bet against them. good luck!

[goldengreek]

Not much to see.

Leans:

KC +103
FLA +145 (G-1)
OAK +108

SF/COL over 8.5
CLE/TEX over 9.5
FLA/PHI under 8.5 (G-1)

Love your 3 sides + TB and COLO

[815Sox]

I cannot play the Tigers, even though this looks like the game they lose. McCarthy is a good pitcher, and is the type that can beat the Tigers. I just cannot pull the trigger.

[No coincidences]

Love your 3 sides + TB and COLO

[No coincidences]

Hoping the Royals cross into - territory -- could become a 3U play for me.

[No coincidences]

Not much to see.

Leans:

KC +103
FLA +145 (G-1)
OAK +108

SF/COL over 8.5
CLE/TEX over 9.5
FLA/PHI under 8.5 (G-1)

Didn't play the FLA/PHI under (winner) or Kansas City (got busy and missed it by like 4 seconds). On the rest.

[God1]

Hoping the Royals cross into - territory -- could become a 3U play for me.

They get more expensive and that makes you want to bet more money? makes no sense

[No coincidences]

They get more expensive and that makes you want to bet more money? makes no sense

It's a significant sign if a team opens as a dog and closes as a favorite -- especially when RLM is involved.

Royals closed at +102, so it's irrelevant.

[God1]

It's a significant sign if a team opens as a dog and closes as a favorite -- especially when RLM is involved.

Royals closed at +102, so it's irrelevant.

just clueless

[No coincidences]

just clueless

So let me get this straight: if Team A opens at, say, -115, and closes at +105, even with the public is betting on Team A, you should take Team A?

[God1]

So let me get this straight: if Team A opens at, say, -115, and closes at +105, even with the public is betting on Team A, you should take Team A?

You shouldn't take either team at the close

These things like RLM and a team opening as a dog but closing as favorite nonsense is not enough to outsmart the vig period

[No coincidences]

You shouldn't take either team at the close

These things like RLM and a team opening as a dog but closing as favorite nonsense is not enough to outsmart the vig period

But I was on KC last night at the + number. I wanted to add to it because of the RLM. If it went to -115, obviously I'm not going to because it's lost its value. But had it closed at -102, I would have made it a multi-unit bet.

[God1]

But I was on KC last night at the + number. I wanted to add to it because of the RLM. If it went to -115, obviously I'm not going to because it's lost its value. But had it closed at -102, I would have made it a multi-unit bet.

Sorry dude but this is just ridiculous

[No coincidences]

Sorry dude but this is just ridiculous

It's ridiculous to take an anti-public play again at -102 when you already have them at +108? Why? You're saying the only time I should add on to a bet is if the Royals went from +108 to +120?

[No coincidences]

6-2 Royals.

[God1]

It's ridiculous to take an anti-public play again at -102 when you already have them at +108? Why? You're saying the only time I should add on to a bet is if the Royals went from +108 to +120?

Sorry dude but I'm just not going to waste anymore time arguing such an elementary concept

[No coincidences]

Sorry dude but I'm just not going to waste anymore time arguing such an elementary concept

So you're saying there's no such thing as RLM? What would make the move in the Royals' favor tonight with the public backing the White Sox?

[No coincidences]

So you're saying there's no such thing as RLM? What would make the move in the Royals' favor tonight with the public backing the White Sox?

Hello?

[God1]

...

Sorry dude but I'm just not going to waste anymore time arguing such an elementary concept

[No coincidences]

...

It's a yes or no question: is there or is there not RLM? What would move the line in favor of the Royals if the public was backing the White Sox at a significant percentage?

[God1]

It's a yes or no question: is there or is there not RLM?

If you define RLM as moving the opposite of where the public is betting then yes that of course happens. Does it mean you can make money betting after the move already happens? of course not

What would move the line in favor of the Royals if the public was backing the White Sox at a significant percentage?

Same factors that move any line: sharp money and volume of money

[No coincidences]

If you define RLM as moving the opposite of where the public is betting then yes that of course happens. Does it mean you can make money betting after the move already happens? of course not



Same factors that move any line: sharp money and volume of money

Exactly. And like I said, I took the Royals for a unit last night at plus money.

You make money with a winning bet, and this is a winning bet, as indicated by the line movement. Again, I wasn't talking about playing it at -115 when the value would be gone. If you have confidence in the play, why not add to it at -102 when you already have it at +103? Why ignore your own capping and the RLM in front of you?

[God1]

Exactly. And like I said, I took the Royals for a unit last night at plus money.

You make money with a winning bet, and this is a winning bet, as indicated by the line movement. Again, I wasn't talking about playing it at -115 when the value would be gone. If you have confidence in the play, why not add to it at -102 when you already have it at +103? Why ignore your own capping and the RLM in front of you?

holy god man you just do not understand how lines work. familiarize yourself with two concepts: "vig" and "efficient market". Seriously done now, just cannot have a discussion with someone who has a 1st grade understanding of subject matter

[God1]

I'm not surprised you are a losing baseball bettor based on this discussion. You have no chance of ever being profitable with your current understanding

[No coincidences]

I understand what you're saying about vig, but taking KC for $100 to win $103 yet passing on adding to it at $100 to win $98 because I didn't get the best line seems a little extreme to me. If I said "KC was +103 last night and now they're -115 -- I'm going to take more because of the line movement!", that wouldn't make sense.

Are you saying that, under these circumstances, KC was no longer a play at all if they moved 5-10 cents against the public and you tried betting it late? So in other words, if you don't lock a line in the night before, it's not worth betting at all?

[God1]

I understand what you're saying about vig, but taking KC for $100 to win $103 yet passing on adding to it at $100 to win $98 because I didn't get the best line seems a little extreme to me.

Dude you realize +103 could be profitable but +101 could be a losing bet???? You clearly don't understand that and therein lies the problem

If I said "KC was +103 last night and now they're -115 -- I'm going to take more because of the line movement!", that wouldn't make sense.

sorry man this is just so simple and you just don't get it i'm really done.

Are you saying that, under these circumstances, KC was no longer a play at all if they moved 5-10 cents against the public and you tried betting it late? So in other words, if you don't lock a line in the night before, it's not worth betting at all?

sry man good luck

[No coincidences]

Not much to see.

Leans:

KC +103
FLA +145 (G-1)
OAK +108

SF/COL over 8.5
CLE/TEX over 9.5
FLA/PHI under 8.5 (G-1)

Anyway, 4-1 on these with the A's pending.

[No coincidences]

Dude you realize +103 could be profitable but +101 could be a losing bet???? You clearly don't understand that and therein lies the problem



sorry man this is just so simple and you just don't get it i'm really done.



sry man good luck

I'm either not understanding what you're trying to say or not conveying what I'm trying to say accurately.

[Love The Action]

Dude you realize +103 could be profitable but +101 could be a losing bet???? You clearly don't understand that and therein lies the problem

NC...it's not that hard of a concept. When he references that +101 could be a losing bet, he is right, but only if the closing number is +102 or more. In this case, your bet on KC at -102 would not have been a good play because KC closed at +100. The idea being that over time, even though you might be winning some of these games, you are missing out and/or giving back potential profit because you are not bettering the efficiency of the closing number. This is how you get eaten up by the vig.

However, what he fails to add is how all this interplays with the efficiency of the prices you generate via your model/capping in relation to the closing number...

[No coincidences]

NC...it's not that hard of a concept. When he references that +101 could be a losing bet, he is right, but only if the closing number is +102 or more. In this case, your bet on KC at -102 would not have been a good play because KC closed at +100. The idea being that over time, even though you might be winning some of these games, you are missing out and/or giving back potential profit because you are not bettering the efficiency of the closing number. This is how you get eaten up by the vig.

Yeah -- I understand that. The "rebound" that often comes late (like what happened with KC tonight, which is why I passed on adding to the bet) after heavy line movement in one direction. I'm still not sure how hitting up KC again at -102 would've been a bad play if my system says it's the right one, vs. understanding completely why I shouldn't add on if the steam pushed it to -115. Then again, I'm not a high roller $$$ wise, so the vig isn't as significant for me as it might be for a bigger bettor.

However, what he fails to add is how all this interplays with the efficiency of the prices you generate via your model/capping in relation to the closing number...

Correct. It's ultimately about picking winners -- not just reading lines.

[God1]

Then again, I'm not a high roller $$$ wise, so the vig isn't as significant for me as it might be for a bigger bettor.

This perfectly captures how incapable you really are of understanding what vig in an efficient market means. That sentence says it ALL. christ

THE VIG IS EXACTLY THE ******* SAME WHETHER YOU BET ONE DOLLAR OR A MILLION. YOU ARE STILL LOSING X%(x is the vig) EACH TIME YOU BET! AHHHHHH!!!!

[God1]

Let me illustrate something for you...a good example from the other night. I bet the Pirates to beat Lohse and put my bet down at +124, I don't remember the closing line but I believe it was something like +137/-146 and lets just say thats what it was for argument sake. The pirates won the game.

You would see that as a winning bet. I see that as a losing bet. I was wrong. In rare circumstances the close can be wrong by a couple cents but I was 18 cents off of the true close. I lost before the game had even started