Thursday's card

[No coincidences]

This perfectly captures how incapable you really are of understanding what vig in an efficient market means. That sentence says it ALL. christ

THE VIG IS EXACTLY THE ******* SAME WHETHER YOU BET ONE DOLLAR OR A MILLION. YOU ARE STILL LOSING X%(x is the vig) EACH TIME YOU BET! AHHHHHH!!!!

It may be the same % wise relative to your overall bankroll, but I'd be a hell of a lot more concerned with losing the vig if I bet $2000 a unit or even $200 vs. the $20 I do. It's not that I don't understand what I lose betting a bad number -- it's that it doesn't affect the bottom line of a small-time gambler like myself who does this more for fun than to make money.

Despite being down this baseball season (though I've inched a lot closer back to even in the past four days), I'm up overall both for this calendar season (with football and basketball) and in the nearly three years I've gambled, so I must be doing something right.

[Love The Action]

Yeah -- I understand that. The "rebound" that often comes late (like what happened with KC tonight, which is why I passed on adding to the bet) after heavy line movement in one direction. I'm still not sure how hitting up KC again at -102 would've been a bad play if my system says it's the right one, vs. understanding completely why I shouldn't add on if the steam pushed it to -115. Then again, I'm not a high roller $$$ wise, so the vig isn't as significant for me as it might be for a bigger bettor.

Correct. It's ultimately about picking winners -- not just reading lines.

Sort of, but beware the comment regarding the vig. It's all relative and the vig will get you regardless of wager size if you are betting into stale lines that are not better than the closing number. Just apply the same reasoning to the -102 to the -115 and ask if either price was better than the efficiency of the closing number. The answer is no and therefore they are both "bad" plays, regardless of whether one is by 2 cents and the other 15 cents. Think about long term ramifications...big picture stuff.

I think it may be beneficial to disassociate yourself from practice of "reading the lines," rlm and the like with respect to these concepts. Instead of reacting to the line movement the better practice is to anticipate the line movement.

[No coincidences]

Let me illustrate something for you...a good example from the other night. I bet the Pirates to beat Lohse and put my bet down at +124, I don't remember the closing line but I believe it was something like +137/-146 and lets just say thats what it was for argument sake. The pirates won the game.

You would see that as a winning bet. I see that as a losing bet. I was wrong. In rare circumstances the close can be wrong by a couple cents but I was 18 cents off of the true close. I lost before the game had even started

Is your top priority picking a winner based on your capping and your system or beating the closing number?

[God1]

Sort of, but beware the comment regarding the vig. It's all relative and the vig will get you regardless of wager size if you are betting into stale lines that are not better than the closing number. Just apply the same reasoning to the -102 to the -115 and ask if either price was better than the efficiency of the closing number. The answer is no and therefore they are both "bad" plays, regardless of whether one is by 2 cents and the other 15 cents. Think about long term ramifications...big picture stuff.

I think it may be beneficial to disassociate yourself from practice of "reading the lines," rlm and the like with respect to these concepts. Instead of reacting to the line movement the better practice is to anticipate the line movement.

perfectly put

[No coincidences]

I think it may be beneficial to disassociate yourself from practice of "reading the lines," rlm and the like with respect to these concepts. Instead of reacting to the line movement the better practice is to anticipate the line movement.

I make a lot of my plays the night before. Line movement is just a way for me to measure my capping vs. what the market is telling me. I don't make plays based on strictly line movement alone.

[God1]

Is your top priority picking a winner based on your capping and your system or beating the closing number?

The two are intertwined. Ideally the number you come up with is the same as the close. But of course no one in the world is that good and you can only hope that the number you are coming up is bringing you out ahead of the close more often than not

[God1]

True closes are definitely wrong here and there no doubt, but on the whole it averages out and the average true close is extremely efficient.

I'd say there's probably on average about a game or two a week where I am convinced the true close is off by at least 5 cents. Am I wrong on this? Common sense says probably. One of those games happened to be the pirates tonight. Another that stands out that I can remember was the pirates at SF against vogelsong I think morton was going at a price of +170 something

[Love The Action]

Is your top priority picking a winner based on your capping and your system or beating the closing number?

NC...stay away from the whole "picking a winner" versus "beating the closer" argument. That's not a good place to go.

Think of it this way. You bet the Cubs -105 and the closing number was +105. Regardless of whether the Cubs win, this is a bad bet because you missing out on 10 cents of value. If you are continually missing out on this ten cents of value over 500 or 1000 plays, you are getting killed long term.

Who makes more money? The 53% bettor over 100 plays who averages -110 in juice or the 53% bettor over 100 plays that averages -105?

When you play less juice by beating the efficiency of the closing line, you are a long term winner. Period.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/betting-strategy/tips/sharp-players

That link should help...

[Love The Action]

I make a lot of my plays the night before. Line movement is just a way for me to measure my capping vs. what the market is telling me. I don't make plays based on strictly line movement alone.

[No coincidences]

The two are intertwined. Ideally the number you come up with is the same as the close. But of course no one in the world is that good and you can only hope that the number you are coming up is bringing you out ahead of the close more often than not

Well obviously you'd like to be good at both, but I'm more interested in spotting winners than worrying about where a line closes. That's where, as you pointed out, you and I would differ in your PIT/StL example. You correctly had the Pirates. You picked the winner and cashed. Obviously it would've been better ideally to get the +137 than the +124, but the bottom line is that you identified a winner even when the market didn't (like Pittsburgh tonight).

[God1]

Well obviously you'd like to be good at both, but I'm more interested in spotting winners than worrying about where a line closes.

sorry man you're still just not getting it

That's where, as you pointed out, you and I would differ in your PIT/StL example. You correctly had the Pirates. You picked the winner and cashed. Obviously it would've been better ideally to get the +137 than the +124, but the bottom line is that you identified a winner even when the market didn't (like Pittsburgh tonight).

I didn't identify a winner, I identified a probability of the pirates winning that I thought was lower than the true probability. I was wrong. The market told me I was wrong.

The market doesn't identify winners or losers, it picks the probability that either team will win the game

[No coincidences]

NC...stay away from the whole "picking a winner" versus "beating the closer" argument. That's not a good place to go.

Think of it this way. You bet the Cubs -105 and the closing number was +105. Regardless of whether the Cubs win, this is a bad bet because you missing out on 10 cents of value. If you are continually missing out on this ten cents of value over 500 or 1000 plays, you are getting killed long term.

Who makes more money? The 53% bettor over 100 plays who averages -110 in juice or the 53% bettor over 100 plays that averages -105?

When you play less juice by beating the efficiency of the closing line, you are a long term winner. Period.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/betting-strategy/tips/sharp-players

That link should help...

No, I understand this LTA. I just have to believe in my system and my capping ability vs. getting hung up on what the closing number is in a game. That's why I still see value in getting a hot Royals team with a lefty starter against a lifeless White Sox squad and a badly-aging Buehrle at basically even money -- whether it's +103 or -102. If that's not the most efficient thought process, so be it.

I follow your thread -- you've beaten the closer a lot this year and been burned by some fluke performance by a shitty reliever. I can't apply exact rules to an inexact science like baseball. That may be too rough around the edges for a guy like God, but that's just the way I am. I totally get your argument and what he's saying, but I have to stay true to my system because A) as God has pointed out many times, books can be terribly inefficient with the numbers they assign to games, and B) unlike God, I refuse to take all lines and line movement from the market's reaction at true face value.

[God1]

Let me try a gambling example...roulette. The casino edge is something like 3.5% but for arguments sake lets assume its 2%.

If you bet $100 on black, you just lost $2. In reality, you will either win or lose $100 on the spot but regardless of the outcome you are losing $2 everytime you make a $100 bet. If you bet $100 on black one million times, its a near certainty that you will wind up down $2 million.

[No coincidences]

I didn't identify a winner, I identified a probability of the pirates winning that I thought was lower than the true probability. I was wrong. The market told me I was wrong.

But doesn't that go against adding on to your Houston bet the night they were in San Francisco and the line kept ballooning? Wasn't the market "telling you you were wrong" in that instance as well?

The market doesn't identify winners or losers, it picks the probability that either team will win the game

Assuming you completely and entirely trust the market and the moves books make.

[God1]

No, I understand this LTA. I just have to believe in my system and my capping ability vs. getting hung up on what the closing number is in a game. That's why I still see value in getting a hot Royals team with a lefty starter against a lifeless White Sox squad and a badly-aging Buehrle at basically even money -- whether it's +103 or -102. If that's not the most efficient thought process, so be it.

its hopeless i give up

I follow your thread -- you've beaten the closer a lot this year and been burned by some fluke performance by a shitty reliever. I can't apply exact rules to an inexact science like baseball. That may be too rough around the edges for a guy like God, but that's just the way I am. I totally get your argument and what he's saying, but I have to stay true to my system because A) as God has pointed out many times, books can be terribly inefficient with the numbers they assign to games and B) unlike God, I refuse to take all lines and line movement from the market's reaction at true face value.

sorry

[God1]

But doesn't that go against adding on to your Houston bet the night they were in San Francisco and the line kept ballooning? Wasn't the market "telling you you were wrong" in that instance as well?

Yep, but I thought they were wrong

Assuming you completely and entirely trust the market and the moves books make.

the market can be dumb and the books open dumb. but at the end of the collection of all bets and all market information on a given game(say 5 mintues before gametime) the books and the market are very efficient and very smart

[No coincidences]

If you don't mind me asking God, how much are you up on the year? And what % of bets have you hit? You talk and react like you have a foolproof approach to betting on baseball, so I would assume most nights are like tonight, where you don't miss a single bet? And if that isn't the case, why not?

[italianbandit]

Or take a poker cash game analogy. You can be putting your stack all in consistently with a 48% chance at winning (disregard folding equity, table image or implied odds for this example) and getting lucky and drawing out against opponents and winning money, but over time this is a losing play and it will catch up with you.

[No coincidences]

Yep, but I thought they were wrong

OK, so you rely on your capping first and foremost -- correct?

the market can be dumb and the books open dumb. but at the end of the collection of all bets and all market information on a given game(say 5 mintues before gametime) the books and the market are very efficient and very smart

I'm not saying reading the market isn't the most efficient and effective way to judge, but it's also far from perfect. If it was, couldn't you just bet on the team the market has "adjusted to" liking most each and every single time right before first pitch and make a killing?

[No coincidences]

the market can be dumb and the books open dumb. but at the end of the collection of all bets and all market information on a given game(say 5 mintues before gametime) the books and the market are very efficient and very smart

Do you think a posted number near close is always a holistic reaction to what the market is saying and driven by that alone, or do books compromise their integrity by setting lines or moving lines to draw more action from either the public or sharp gamblers?

[God1]

If you don't mind me asking God, how much are you up on the year? And what % of bets have you hit?

Rather not say but I'll tell you that I was not ahead on the season betting moneylines until last month, but I also missed April completely this year which would've kept me in the black all year.

You talk and react like you have a foolproof approach to betting on baseball

Dude I'm picking off edges that can be as small as a cent or two. I'm losing close to half the time as every winning bettor is, I'm just winning every so slightly more often than not.

so I would assume most nights are like tonight, where you don't miss a single bet? And if that isn't the case, why not?

This is just retarded I'm not going to bother to respond. Tonight just happened to be one of my best nights all year but that is irrelevant

I'll leave you with this, If you are winning at a 55% clip, you can sit back and spend the rest of your days shopping for yachts. The best in the world, literally, is probably hitting something 54-55%. The vast majority of winners(which even then represents probably .5% of all bettors) are beating the books by 1-2%

[God1]

Do you think a posted number near close is always a holistic reaction to what the market is saying and driven by that alone, or do books compromise their integrity by setting lines or moving lines to draw more action from either the public or sharp gamblers?

Books are market makers pure and simple. Yes, sometimes market makers are forced to take directional positions

[italianbandit]

If you don't mind me asking God, how much are you up on the year? And what % of bets have you hit? You talk and react like you have a foolproof approach to betting on baseball, so I would assume most nights are like tonight, where you don't miss a single bet? And if that isn't the case, why not?

The reason most nights are "not like tonight" is because overall even smart gamblers are mainly just betting small edges in an unpredictable game. This can lead to losing swings which is why a good sense of bankroll is important.

[italianbandit]

Sorry didn't see the previous posts, just repeated the same stuff.

[No coincidences]

Rather not say but I'll tell you that I was not ahead on the season betting moneylines until last month, but I also missed April completely this year which would've kept me in the black all year.



Dude I'm picking off edges that can be as small as a cent or two. I'm losing close to half the time as every winning bettor is, I'm just winning every so slightly more often than not.



This is just retarded I'm not going to bother to respond. Tonight just happened to be one of my best nights all year but that is irrelevant

I'll leave you with this, If you are winning at a 55% clip, you can sit back and spend the rest of your days shopping for yachts. The best in the world, literally, is probably hitting something 54-55%. The vast majority of winners(which even then represents probably .5% of all bettors) are beating the books by 1-2%

Exactly. So why is my approach to gambling so inferior to yours?

I don't doubt that you're up, I don't doubt your ability, and I don't question your talent to pick games like the Stros that one night vs. SF or Pittsburgh tonight. But for you to beat me over the head about being a "loser" when it comes to baseball just because I'm not as "advanced" in my thought process as you are and you happen to catch me during a recent cold streak (that's changed dramatically in the past few days, I might add) is just a little pretentious, don't you think? Can't we just agree to disagree on certain things and leave it at that?

[No coincidences]

I'm not saying reading the market isn't the most efficient and effective way to judge, but it's also far from perfect. If it was, couldn't you just bet on the team the market has "adjusted to" liking most each and every single time right before first pitch and make a killing?

I'd like to see what you think about this question.

[No coincidences]

To extend this conversation and include someone else, what's with the unprovoked attacks on GG all the time? Given all the horrific posters on this site who don't know their gambling ass from their elbow and who hemorrhage money from their accounts, why do you attack him? I've never understood that -- especially given the fact that, overall, he's killed baseball this year. Absolutely destroyed it.

[No coincidences]

The reason most nights are "not like tonight" is because overall even smart gamblers are mainly just betting small edges in an unpredictable game. This can lead to losing swings which is why a good sense of bankroll is important.

Exactly.

[God1]

I'd like to see what you think about this question.

The market doesn't "like" one team over another. It's picks a probability that either will win the game

[God1]

To extend this conversation and include someone else, what's with the unprovoked attacks on GG all the time? Given all the horrific posters on this site who don't know their gambling ass from their elbow and who hemorrhage money from their accounts, why do you attack him? I've never understood that -- especially given the fact that, overall, he's killed baseball this year. Absolutely destroyed it.

He doesn't know his ass from his elbow and has no doubt hemorrhaged money throughtout his "career". I'm not commenting on this again because I know you will come back "yo dude he picks winners! guy is up xx units in basebll! omg!". sorry

[No coincidences]

The market doesn't "like" one team over another. It's picks a probability that either will win the game

Fine -- poorly worded. If the number right before close is a "true" reaction to the market's response to a game and the most effective way of making that number efficient, why can't you just follow late line movement and come out way ahead?

[God1]

Fine -- poorly worded. If the number right before close is a "true" reaction to the market's response to a game and the most effective way of making that number efficient, why can't you just follow late line movement and come out way ahead?

If you can predict the true close and be out ahead of it more often than not you will come out way ahead

[God1]

I'm done in this thread, I gave it a shot. You still don't get it. good luck bud

[No coincidences]

He doesn't know his ass from his elbow and has no doubt hemorrhaged money throughtout his "career". I'm not commenting on this again because I know you will come back "yo dude he picks winners! guy is up xx units in basebll! omg!". sorry

See -- why do you have to react like that? I'm giving him credit for being able to sustain and be up over 200 units throughout the course of an entire baseball season. Why can't you do the same? Why do you have to overreact and make it sound like I'm some blind worshiper of GG?

How do you know he doesn't know his ass from his elbow? Because he has a different way of capping than you? I'm sorry, but no one can have his record in a 6-month season without knowing something about the sport they're betting on. It's impossible.

I respect you God. I really do. And I'm still learning this game, so obviously, I've learned a lot from your posts. I just wish you'd drop the holier than thou shit.

It's really too bad you can't give credit where credit is due and respect others in return. Why talk down to someone who is successful but just happens to take a different approach to gambling?

[italianbandit]

Fine -- poorly worded. If the number right before close is a "true" reaction to the market's response to a game and the most effective way of making that number efficient, why can't you just follow late line movement and come out way ahead?

Because that late line movement gives you a value in which you can lose that small edge. Think of the poker example, imagine if instead of being a 51% favorite in an all in hand, I took away 2 cards out of the reamining deck and made you a 49.5 % underdog. You would go from a winning player to a losing player. This might take years to show up.