**Tips**

[bigboydan]

mlwitchking, in regards to your parlay being calculated. heres an easier way for you to do your figuring those out. pinnacle has a Multi-Way Calculator on there site. it's the 6th option down on the left hand side, under the change language option.

[ganchrow]

How are parlays calculated for money lines?

1. Take the product of all the decimal odds
2. Subtract 1

Example:
Parlaying two money lines of -110
Converting -110 to decimal odds gives us decimal odds of 1.91
Multiplying 1.91 x 1.91 ≈ 3.64
Subtracting 1 gives us 2.64.

This means that for every $1 bet on the parlay you'd receive $2.64 if it wins.

[mlwitchking]

question for you all:
does pinnacle offer parlays or teasers on any sport?

Edit:
I found the answer.


New question:
How are parlays for baseball calculated for money lines?

[ganchrow]

But in all liklihood, the reality is that you'll spend the night jacking off into a Kleenex.

Don't knock my hobbies.

[tacomax]

Parlays are the way to go for baseball. If the White Sox could have kept the lead, I would have won $400 yesterday betting only $100.

I've highlighted the key word for you there.

Everyday in Baseball you should put together a 5 or 6 team parlay for $50/$100 and you could win $3,000-$4,000.

And by the same reasoning, everyday you should be able to go out and pull Jessica Alba and you could end up shagging her up the arse all night.

But in all liklihood, the reality is that you'll spend the night jacking off into a Kleenex.

[imgv94]

I have no idea who flamers is?

[tacomax]

I keep waiting for the punchline....

But it was sweet of imgv94 to invite his brother to the SBR forums.

[imgv94]

maritime and ganchrow are cool!!!

[ganchrow]

Obviously there are many factors involved, none greater than the individual handicapper's ability to pick winners.

Indeed. But of course even a bettor with no actual handicapping skill might in theory still have an edge betting .

Assume a starting bank roll of $880. You bet on 2 games each day. Odds on both are -110. ... 50% chance you split (-$20)

(In the case of a split you'd of course only lose $10 ($100 win - $110 loss = $10 net loss) ... but your final values still hold.)

In the end, you lose total of $40. End bankroll is $840.

Placing 8 $110 bets, yes, your expectation is a loss of $40 ($880 * -4.55% = $40)

Now let's do parlays instead. Same bankroll of $880 ... In the end, you lose $78. End bankroll is $802.

Using true 2-team parlay odds off a -110 line set, yes your expectation placing 4 $220 parlays is a loss of about $78.

So indeed, if you're a coin flip bettor you'd do worse percentage-wise betting parlays than you would placing straight bets. (Of course if you're a coin flip bettor you'd do better still not placing ANY bets at all.)

But if you're let's say a break-even bettor, then your expectation is exactly the same whether you bet parlays or straight bets. And if you're a positive expectation bettor then you'd do better with parlays then you would with straight bets. I posted a describing this a few months back.

Now for someone like the OP who so clearly considers himself a positive expectancy bettor (as misguided as you or I might suspect him of being), it would make sense (from his perspective) to bet parlays. Of course if he's sufficiently overestimating his level of skill then he'll certainly lose more quickly using this tactic ... but at least he'd have been internally consistent in his reasoning.

Anyway though, good post ... I always do appreciate a little math.

[imgv94]

Let me show you one example, I have a parlay going tomorrow
from Seattle -4(NBA) to Blue Jays(MLB) and it is paying +208
for 1 unit. So now I only risked 1 unit to make 2 units. Sounds
good to me.

Yeah Parlays are sucker bets!! LOL!!!
NOT!!!!!!!!!

[maritime]

With all due respect maritime, this is completely untrue.

Thanks for setting me straight. I've read some of your previous posts. You seem to be a bit of a mathematician yourself. Obviously there are many factors involved, none greater than the individual handicapper's ability to pick winners.

Here is the math to which I was referring to:

Assume a starting bank roll of $880. You bet on 2 games each day. Odds on both are -110.

Doing straight bets to win 1 unit. You would bet total of $220. Disregarding handicapping skill and assuming these odds mean each team has a 50% chance of winning there are 4 possible outcomes. 25% chance you win both (+$200), 25% chance you lose both (-$220) and 50% chance you split (-$20). In the end, you lose total of $40. End bankroll is $840.

Now let's do parlays instead. Same bankroll of $880. So each parlay you bet $220. 75% chance you lose (-$660). 25% chance you win (+$582). In the end, you lose $78. End bankroll is $802.

This is what I was referring to. I can tell from your other posts you know what you're talking about. I know the math changes based on other factors. It's those "other factors" that may make parlays profitable for certain bettors.

[The Great One]

Yes that is true when they are -250 but NEVER go STRAIGHT UP, use them in a 3 team parlay, and bet $200, or $250.

A good parlay is 4-5 teams, and knock on $100

Yeah, I do that. To me, it's kind of like icing on the cake taking a heavy favorite in a small parlay. Works well in all sports. You are not having to lay Fort Knox when you do that.

[Flamers]

Yes that is true when they are -250 but NEVER go STRAIGHT UP, use them in a 3 team parlay, and bet $200, or $250.

A good parlay is 4-5 teams, and knock on $100

[The Great One]

to win at baseball i believe you must focus on underdogs.the quickest way to blow out an acct is to bet -200 etc...thats why books offering 20 cent lines will be same on favorites number but way off pinny,etc on the dogs number.also a lot of baseball sharps tune in on the total.i guess everyone has an opinion on how to win

I completely agree. I'm living proof that this is true. I've been hit hard on the Yanks in the past because once the summer starts they will be consistantly -250 and above.

[The Great One]

I agree, if you are amrt with parlays they can be your friends especially on day where there is a ton of action like weekends in the fall. There are 15 MLB games and every team in college and pro football is playing. I love doing 9-12 team moneyline parlays there.

As far as sucker bets, they are if you are doing 5 or more team parlays trying to cash in on the spread. I found out the hardway when I first started doing this that doesn't pay. But've made 9K before on big moneyline parlay.

Parlays are all subjective bets in my opinion.

[Flamers]

Parlays are the way to go for baseball. If the White Sox could have kept the lead, I would have won $400 yesterday betting only $100.

If you straight the White Sox for $500 you would have burned that much, rather I have 5 more plays coming than you.

Everyday in Baseball you should put together a 5 or 6 team parlay for $50/$100 and you could win $3,000-$4,000.

You should be able to do this twice a week.

[ganchrow]

To win over time, straight bets are your best bet. Simple mathematics & probabilities can prove this.

With all due respect maritime, this is completely untrue.

[imgv94]

parlays are far from sucker bets. Know many sharp fellas that make
tons of money betting parlays.

[hanco21]

Thats why most sportsbooks call parlay sucker bets.

[imgv94]

I have been figuring out that betting anything -200 or worse is
just not worth it. I like parlays myself, but you have to know how
2 bet them, dont have more than 25% of your money on parlays,
and do more 2 team parlays then 3 or 4 team ones. I have made
huge money betting parlays!

Let me show you one example, I have a parlay going tomorrow
from Seattle -4(NBA) to Blue Jays(MLB) and it is paying +208
for 1 unit. So now I only risked 1 unit to make 2 units. Sounds
good to me.

[Alamorich]

You have to take some shot with dogs...just can't win over the long run playing small favorites and you'll definately get killed playing big favorites. I do think parlays have a place in baseball. I never play them in football and tried a few in baskeball and got killed but I have always played them in baseball here and there. Usually on a big card you can find a couple games worth sticking together. I might put two games together and back one of them straight up and keep my fingers crossed.

[bigboydan]

well, TB and KC aren't the best teams to use for an example, but you guys are both right.

[Illusion]

I really disagree with most of your advice. What's the point betting only on moslty short priced teams that you mentioned as contenders? There is often good spot taking favorites, but IMO it's all about finding value odds and betting against big public favorites will give much better results in the long run.

Exactly, you will make more money betting teams like TB and KC than you will NYY and StL.

[imgv94]

Why does everyone say even bad handicappers win in baseball? I keep
hearing even a dummy can win betting baseball?? That
it is easy?

[juuso]

I really disagree with most of your advice. What's the point betting only on moslty short priced teams that you mentioned as contenders? There is often good spot taking favorites, but IMO it's all about finding value odds and betting against big public favorites will give much better results in the long run.

[Illusion]

Stay with the contenders. NEVER go for the upset. Like don't bet against the Yankees/Cardinals/Red Sox

I'm sorry, but this has to be the dumbest thing I have ever read. Are you serious? Do you have stats to back this? Teams like the Yankees always lose money. Please tell me you are kidding, lol.

[darkghost]

I keep waiting for the punchline....

lmao

The randomness of it all just overwhelmed me. And I think the name says it all.

[Flamers]

Total is fine, if there non divisional leaders. Right now you take the A's Mariners series. Don't take +8.5 over but go with +7.5 over for the 2nd leg of the series.

If the Yanks are playing Red Sox, the over/under should be 8.5. Take over after the first game. If it moves up, stay away.

April is tough to play total.

But when June comes along, it gets easier.

Take the Twins on the road. Santana will lose 2-3 games by mid May, guarenteed.
In June, the Twins on the road will move Santana in the rotation for road games because he starts pitching better and using more pitches when the weather gets warm, and they feel he can steal 6-7 games in the summer on the road.

So take the Twins WIN -160 road probably. Stay away from total.

[Flamers]

depending on what team. If the Yankees are playing and your in a middle of a parlay find.

THEN PLAY YANKEES

But say the White Sox are playing Orioles, and the Orioles are are at home -200. It's not worth it.

If the Yanks are home against the White Sox and are -220.

Play the Yanks.

But don't use the Yanks Straight Up. Only parlay.

[mlwitchking]

for games with very slight favorites (-130 or less), should you just pick the team you think should win instead of only underdogs??

[jumper]

to win at baseball i believe you must focus on underdogs.the quickest way to blow out an acct is to bet -200 etc...thats why books offering 20 cent lines will be same on favorites number but way off pinny,etc on the dogs number.also a lot of baseball sharps tune in on the total.i guess everyone has an opinion on how to win

[Winston Smith]

You wanna bet $500 for 3 or $1500 for 3?

If you lose one team on your parlay, you're out 1 unit.

If you lose one of your straight bets, you're still up.

Not really a difficult decision.

[Flamers]

mlwitchking. How much do you bet?

You wanna bet $500 for 3 or $1500 for 3?

You could look at it like you have 3 choices to win, during 3 different days, and if you coordinate your dates, you can get a entire series.

[mlwitchking]

i just don't understand why i should bet parlays. if i think three teams will win, shouldn't i bet straight on them?

[Winston Smith]

I keep waiting for the punchline....