Monday

[God1]

The price on houston is getting pretty outraegous up to +128. They are giving the reds a hitting/defensive advantage pretty close to what they gave the red sox vs the mariners thats just insane. The reds.....vs a righty! and with a minor leaguer plus janish and hanigan in the lineup

[BigDan]

how fitting is it that one of your fav totals of the year is against one of topgames plays

classic...i rode with you so you prob doomed.

[God1]

how fitting is it that one of your fav totals of the year is against one of topgames plays

classic...i rode with you so you prob doomed.

It's a really really good sign for the under that the price on the reds has climbed almost 20 cents in the last hour or two and the under has gotten 5 cents cheaper. God it's just amazing how inefficient the totals markets can be at times

The reds aren't climbing in price because of some perceived explosion of offense or dearth of pitching on the astros part. It's all about that triple A lineup

[pacocn]

Biff, bol, i played that Reds under 8.5 last night when the
line came out. I may tail u on that brew play, i try and avoid those
Under 6, but that match up should be a 2-1 type game with the
Giants sqeaking it out.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, bol, i played that Reds under 8.5 last night when the
line came out. I may tail u on that brew play, i try and avoid those
Under 6, but that match up should be a 2-1 type game with the
Giants sqeaking it out.

BOL, pacocn, thinking about adding A's, did that with your Rays play yesterday and cashed.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tim McClellan behind the plate at US Cellulah Field. PASS on all under-related action.

[pacocn]

Biff, i like the A's in this spot, hope we hit

[Love The Action]

Biff, i like the A's in this spot, hope we hit

I also like Oakland tonight! Bol

[Lloyd Smuggs]

who gonna score 10 runs in that hou gm? if so tho im sure you can get really good odds on ov 9 or 9.5...

I mean between the 2 teams...not brave enough to bet on it going over 9.5 but I just got a mad crazy feeling that this game will be a high scoring one .

[BigDan]

I mean between the 2 teams...not brave enough to bet on it going over 9.5 but I just got a mad crazy feeling that this game will be a high scoring one .

i know you meant between both teams bro i still just dont see it. i mean it could go over but it really hard to find a lot of runs.

[Lloyd Smuggs]

i know you meant between both teams bro i still just dont see it. i mean it could go over but it really hard to find a lot of runs.

So far 4 runs on the table with only 3 innings gone...looks promising

[BigDan]

So far 4 runs on the table with only 3 innings gone...looks promising

yep id say you were right..

[Lloyd Smuggs]

yep id say you were right..

I no its too early to say, but so wish I went for the over 9.5 lol

[BigDan]

I no its too early to say, but so wish I went for the over 9.5 lol

ive never did this with baseball, then again ive really just gotten really involved with baseball totals the last year and a half, prob not real wise, i will shave off hooks to get plus money when i feel good about a total but that as far as ive went.

NFL on the other hand ive always loved totals and you will see me playing tons of alt lines on those for nice plus money

[BigDan]

Congrats Carp on your 1000k as a Cardinal

[Lloyd Smuggs]

ive never did this with baseball, then again ive really just gotten really involved with baseball totals the last year and a half, prob not real wise, i will shave off hooks to get plus money when i feel good about a total but that as far as ive went.

NFL on the other hand ive always loved totals and you will see me playing tons of alt lines on those for nice plus money

I love NFL totals , made so much money of that! NBA toatals are pretty good but nhl totals suck

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* A's ML (-121)

[BiffTFinancial]

updated card
3* Cardinals/Brewers under 7.5 (-120)
3* Diamondbacks/Giants under 6 (-105)
3* A's ML (-121)
2* Marlins/Mets over 8 (-110)

[God1]

Janish 2-2 with a walk and 2 doubles is about all you need to know about the reds/astros game

Dunn 0-3 with 2 Ks, only 1 LOB so call it a good night?

[No coincidences]

Janish 2-2 with a walk and 2 doubles is about all you need to know about the reds/astros game

Let me guess -- a fluke night? Since that seems to be the only way you explain away your losses....

[No coincidences]

mets/marlins under, braves/nationals under(somewhat marginal), yankees/white sox under. I don't think i've ever seen a statistic posted on this board that I thought was significant but today I saw someone post Peavy's BAA prior to 75 pitches at .220 and over 75 pitchers at something like .430 this year so i'm doing 1st five in that one. That gap is just too huge and i think logically accounted for to ignore and there's not extra juice on 1st 5 totals

Not as easy to make picks when you actually have to be held accountable, is it?

[God1]

Let me guess -- a fluke night? Since that seems to be the only way you explain away your losses....

what? not a fluke at all it's baseball. My expected ROI on that bet was somewhere around 10% which means i'm losing the bet 44% of the time. The game could end 4-3 or it could end 15-13 it would make zero difference on my opinion of whether I made a smart bet

[God1]

Not as easy to make picks when you actually have to be held accountable, is it?

LOL what? I gave out because I was asked. My totals bets are long term profitable I could give two shits if this forum thinks I lose every single bet or about being held "accountable" to a bunch of forum posters. The only thing that holds me accountable that I care about is my bank account

[BigDan]

i mean yea it doesnt look great but not like the cincy gm has went over the number as of yet.

[No coincidences]

LOL what? I gave out because I was asked. My totals bets are long term profitable I could give two shits if this forum thinks I lose every single bet or about being held "accountable" to a bunch of forum posters. The only thing that holds me accountable that I care about is my bank account

If you weren't so arrogant about it, it wouldn't be such a big deal.

I'm just saying you might want to go back to being cryptic about your picks after putting your feet to the fire tonight.

[God1]

See this is the difference in mindset between someone who is capable of winning and someone who just gets hosed by the vig: to you, the reds under was a bad bet if the game ends 10-9, but if it ended 3-0 you would think its a good bet. Short term results are nothing more than variance if your method is solid

[God1]

I'm just saying you might want to go back to being cryptic about your picks after putting your feet to the fire tonight.

Feet to the fire? . Dude this is a forum, how could you take this so seriously? Why do you care if posters think you win or not? All that matters is your bank account

[No coincidences]

Feet to the fire? . Dude this is a forum, how could you take this so seriously? Why do you care if posters think you win or not? All that matters is your bank account

Good point -- you obviously don't take things seriously around here.

[BigDan]

See this is the difference in mindset between someone who is capable of winning and someone who just gets hosed by the vig: to you, the reds under was a bad bet if the game ends 10-9, but if it ended 3-0 you would think its a good bet. Short term results are nothing more than variance if your method is solid

cant argue that. i tell everyone with college hoops (by far my strongest sport) when they want my strongest play or a "lock" that all i can say is i know if i make this play over and over i will come out ahead. that really all you can hope for. individual gms are really meaningless. Fukkk i hate when we agree...

[No coincidences]

See this is the difference in mindset between someone who is capable of winning and someone who just gets hosed by the vig: to you, the reds under was a bad bet if the game ends 10-9, but if it ended 3-0 you would think its a good bet. Short term results are nothing more than variance if your method is solid

Are you talking to me? I have no dog in this race. In fact, I would have bet the under given the public loved the over and the hook was dropped from the total. I'm just saying it's a lot more difficult to actually pick winners when you've put your plays on the table instead of leaving cryptic messages all the time.

[God1]

exactly, play of the year or lock or "unloading" just means that the expected ROI on the bet is north of what you normally see. they only win an extra 2% of the time but it's all about expectation not the results of 1 game

[No coincidences]

cant argue that. i tell everyone with college hoops (by far my strongest sport) when they want my strongest play or a "lock" that all i can say is i know if i make this play over and over i will come out ahead. that really all you can hope for. individual gms are really meaningless. Fukkk i hate when we agree...

I don't disagree with what he's saying at all, even though he's convinced I do.

I honestly think he comes to this forum to argue just for the sake of arguing.

[God1]

I'm just saying it's a lot more difficult to actually pick winners when you've put your plays on the table instead of leaving cryptic messages all the time.

No it's actually exactly the same. Whether I make a post with a pick or don't post has no impact on how the game will be played

[Love The Action]

See this is the difference in mindset between someone who is capable of winning and someone who just gets hosed by the vig: to you, the reds under was a bad bet if the game ends 10-9, but if it ended 3-0 you would think its a good bet. Short term results are nothing more than variance if your method is solid

Depends on the number you bet. Did you beat the closer in every one of your plays that lost? If yes, then what you say is true. If not....

[God1]

I honestly think he comes to this forum to argue just for the sake of arguing.

I come here for the sake of talking baseball. If I run into a bunch of idiots I'm going to speak my mind