Monday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Cardinals/Brewers under 7.5 (-120)
3* Diamondbacks/Giants under 6 (-105)

[BigDan]

your in box is full again you popular motha fukker

obviously i like both of those

[trytrytry]

3* Diamondbacks/Giants under 6 (-105)

3-0 final likely in this one! GL

[God1]

how could you possibly not be on the astros/reds under? leadoff and 7th in the order tonight have never had a major league AB. Their 5th hitter is playing in his 2nd major league game, another guy has only played 10 games. Not one lefty in the lineup. Reds have a minor leaguer plus janish and hannigan. Norris is a stud

[Love The Action]

how could you possibly not be on the astros/reds under? leadoff and 7th in the order tonight have never had a major league AB. Their 5th hitter is playing in his 2nd major league game, another guy has only played 10 games. Not one lefty in the lineup. Reds have a minor leaguer plus janish and hannigan. Norris is a stud

For me, Bronson Arroyo is the answer with his 4.31 SIERA and over 6 tERA. Minor leaguers can hit minor league pitching and that is all arroyo is at this point. I would rather bet on Norris and the minor leaguers (plus el cabayo who has killed arroyo) on the ml than risk an under with Arroyo. Although the market agrees with you that 8.5 was too high, I still don't like arroyo here. If he is going to perform well this year, however, tonight would be the night against this joke of a lineup. I just think there are better investments on todays card and will orobably stay away from this game altogether...bol.

[God1]

For me, Bronson Arroyo is the answer with his 4.31 SIERA and over 6 tERA. Minor leaguers can hit minor league pitching and that is all arroyo is at this point.

Arroyo ranks 88th among starters in SIERA, thats good for a top #4 starter which is alot better than "minor league pitching".

I would rather bet on Norris and the minor leaguers (plus el cabayo who has killed arroyo) on the ml than risk an under with Arroyo.

Arroyo is the reason you bet the under, the triple A squad of the astros is just icing on the cake. You can make alot of money betting unders on bad or perceived to be bad pitching. The reason? Because the market sees a high ERA or a bad pitcher and automatically assumes over(as you do here) and vastly overrates the impact that he has on the number of runs scored. I make money on totals because people see a pitcher with a high ERA and bet the over, not understanding that a bad pitcher doesn't mean over, he means maybe an extra .4 runs scored in the game which is about 25 cents on a total depending on where the number is. But the public(and as you do here) doesn't think like that, they just see bad pitcher and like the over. They fail to realize that over 8 +110 might be profitable while over 8 -110 is a losing bet. To them (and you) that bet is the same, when in reality it's the difference between winning and losing

Although the market agrees with you that 8.5 was too high, I still don't like arroyo here.

7.5 is too high. This is going to be one of my biggest total bets of the year

[God1]

Also, to look at arroyo's overall SIERA or xFIP is ridiculous for this game. The Astros lineup has all right handers and 1 switch hitter. His xFIP vs righties is 3.78 which is slightly above league average and would put him around 55th in the league among starters

Also, Bud Norris' xFIP is almost a full .5 better against righties which account for most of the reds lineup, the only lefty besides votto/bruce tonight is a minor leaguer

[Ice House]

hey guy who calls him self god whats your favorite under today?

[God1]

hey guy who calls him self god whats your favorite under today?

Just look for the two best pitchers and go with that under, that's the best strategy and especially against bad hitting teams

[BigDan]

hey guy who calls him self god whats your favorite under today?

he just said ciny/hou was one of his fav unders of the year so my guess would be that is his fav of the day.

[God1]

Ice House, cincy's offense is sick and they have Bronson Arroyo going tonight 5.52 ERA don't go near that under. Stick to really good pitchers with low ERA

[BiffTFinancial]

your in box is full again you popular motha fukker

obviously i like both of those

inbox cleared.

how could you possibly not be on the astros/reds under? leadoff and 7th in the order tonight have never had a major league AB. Their 5th hitter is playing in his 2nd major league game, another guy has only played 10 games. Not one lefty in the lineup. Reds have a minor leaguer plus janish and hannigan. Norris is a stud

i wanted to like it, but i just couldn't. Arroyo has given up at least 4 ERs in each of his last 6 starts. i see no reason to trust him now, but i wish you BOL with your play.

[God1]

Arroyo has given up at least 4 ERs in each of his last 6 starts.

All the more reason to take the under

[BigDan]

Ice House, cincy's offense is sick and they have Bronson Arroyo going tonight 5.52 ERA don't go near that under. Stick to really good pitchers with low ERA

sometimes you make me laugh, others well you know. impressed you actually came out with such a strong opinion on a gm. hope it works out for you, i certainly wouldnt play it any other way.

[Ice House]

seems the Astros have just removed all good players from the roster

[Love The Action]

Arroyo ranks 88th among starters in SIERA, thats good for a top #4 starter which is alot better than "minor league pitching".



Arroyo is the reason you bet the under, the triple A squad of the astros is just icing on the cake. You can make alot of money betting unders on bad or perceived to be bad pitching. The reason? Because the market sees a high ERA or a bad pitcher and automatically assumes over(as you do here) and vastly overrates the impact that he has on the number of runs scored. I make money on totals because people see a pitcher with a high ERA and bet the over, not understanding that a bad pitcher doesn't mean over, he means maybe an extra .4 runs scored in the game which is about 25 cents on a total depending on where the number is. But the public(and as you do here) doesn't think like that, they just see bad pitcher and like the over. They fail to realize that over 8 +110 might be profitable while over 8 -110 is a losing bet. To them (and you) that bet is the same, when in reality it's the difference between winning and losing



7.5 is too high. This is going to be one of my biggest total bets of the year

Agreed...I dont discount your reasoning...plus I'm glad to see you take a stand. Good luck.

With that said, I personally don't like the under because, in addition to starting pitching, defense and bullpen play a role here. Shoddy defense and/or bullpen relief on either side could easily cost you this play. Just one missed cut off throw, one error or poor relief appearance and your big play is lost. With the astros fielding such inexperience, those errors and poor play can easily cost you a few runs tonight. The reds play top 5 D and top 15 bullpen, but the astros are at the bottom of each. My model has this at 7.5, so I do see value at the opener of 8.5, but there are too many variables at play in this one because of all the youngsters to lock it in myself. Perhaps that is square thinking on this one, but I have to trust my experience. GL...

[BigDan]

Reds d has been trash ever since Biff praised them wtf Biff????

[BiffTFinancial]

Reds d has been trash ever since Biff praised them wtf Biff????

the Reds defense crumbled under the weight of my approval. i've been money for finding unearned runs lately.

roof in Milwaukee will be open, but may close at some point due to storms. let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.

[God1]

impressed you actually came out with such a strong opinion on a gm.

today is the first day in what feels like weeks i'll be betting at least 3 totals

[t-bone]

3* Cardinals/Brewers under 7.5 (-120)
3* Diamondbacks/Giants under 6 (-105)

Nice plays Biffer, too many people on that Brewers under.......scary.

My only play tonight is the Marlins/Mets OVER 8.

Best of luck with your plays

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Marlins/Mets over 8 (-110)

updated card
3* Cardinals/Brewers under 7.5 (-120)
3* Diamondbacks/Giants under 6 (-105)
2* Marlins/Mets over 8 (-110)

BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice plays Biffer, too many people on that Brewers under.......scary.

My only play tonight is the Marlins/Mets OVER 8.

Best of luck with your plays

great minds think alike, tbone. just locked that one in when i came back and saw your pick. hear you about Brewers/Cards under, someone should make a lock thread for the over. BOL tonight.

[BigDan]

today is the first day in what feels like weeks i'll be betting at least 3 totals

would like to hear them. when you ready...makes sense tho because i think there are several solid under plays today and a few more i like but am a little scared of (prob the ones you really like)

you know the ones im on, and still a real good possibility i end up on the under in sea...flipping a coin right now on whether to jump on cincy under with you. did you consider 1st 5 in that game? id guess prob not just curious.

[God1]

would like to hear them. when you ready...makes sense tho because i think there are several solid under plays today and a few more i like but am a little scared of (prob the ones you really like)

mets/marlins under, braves/nationals under(somewhat marginal), yankees/white sox under. I don't think i've ever seen a statistic posted on this board that I thought was significant but today I saw someone post Peavy's BAA prior to 75 pitches at .220 and over 75 pitchers at something like .430 this year so i'm doing 1st five in that one. That gap is just too huge and i think logically accounted for to ignore and there's not extra juice on 1st 5 totals

[Lloyd Smuggs]

Nice plays , although I never posted them on my posts I was very close to and have bet a small wager on on Houston game going over along with Boston game , philly game , and Atlanta game all going over and I'm very confident Houston game will have at least 10 runs or more scored just my opinion .

[BigDan]

Nice plays Biffer, too many people on that Brewers under.......scary.

My only play tonight is the Marlins/Mets OVER 8.

Best of luck with your plays

t-bone i think it fair to say that certain ppl are all over the mil un because of other post they may have read.

pretty nice ump in that fla/nym gm for a over. cant decide if i want on the over or the fish.

[BigDan]

Nice plays , although I never posted them on my posts I was very close to and have bet a small wager on on Houston game going over along with Boston game , philly game , and Atlanta game all going over and I'm very confident Houston game will have at least 10 runs or more scored just my opinion .

who gonna score 10 runs in that hou gm? if so tho im sure you can get really good odds on ov 9 or 9.5...

[BigDan]

mets/marlins under, braves/nationals under(somewhat marginal), yankees/white sox under. I don't think i've ever seen a statistic posted on this board that I thought was significant but today I saw someone post Peavy's BAA prior to 75 pitches at .220 and over 75 pitchers at something like .430 this year so i'm doing 1st five in that one. That gap is just too huge and i think logically accounted for to ignore and there's not extra juice on 1st 5 totals

i agree totally with the under ff in nyy/cws. great stat by houli.

[ParlayJunkie]

Good luck on your plays today!

[God1]

Oakland has moved at least 10 cents to the upside off the close for the last 3 days now and I feel like its been going on longer but I can't remember for sure. I think it happens again tomorrow too

[No coincidences]

I like both of those plays personally Biff.

i.e., you're fvcked.

[BiffTFinancial]

mets/marlins under, braves/nationals under(somewhat marginal), yankees/white sox under. I don't think i've ever seen a statistic posted on this board that I thought was significant but today I saw someone post Peavy's BAA prior to 75 pitches at .220 and over 75 pitchers at something like .430 this year so i'm doing 1st five in that one. That gap is just too huge and i think logically accounted for to ignore and there's not extra juice on 1st 5 totals

like NYY/CWS under, particularly FF. probably play i like most of those remaining, that or Braves -1 or TT over 4.5 +105 (think Braves will hit Livan) obviously disagree on Marlins/Mets, BOL God.

[BiffTFinancial]

Konerko being out makes me like the NYY/CWS FF under 4 even more. CWS TT under 3 might be good too. CWS lineup lacks scary hitters without Konerko. Yanks might be scary against Peavy, but that pitch count stat is solid.

[God1]

Konerko being out makes me like the NYY/CWS FF under 4 even more. CWS TT under 3 might be good too. CWS lineup lacks scary hitters without Konerko. Yanks might be scary against Peavy, but that pitch count stat is solid.

Konerko being out is worth very little to the total and it's already been priced in at this point. My guess is something around 7-8 cents. Dunn playing 1B has to be worth something to the upside

[BiffTFinancial]

Konerko being out is worth very little to the total and it's already been priced in at this point. My guess is something around 6 cents. Dunn playing 1B has to be worth something to the upside

i agree that it's priced in. that said, looking at the CWS lineup, it's difficult to see how they will score. Konerko is their best hitter hands down (Quentin is the 2nd best, then big dropoff). Sabathia is looking at a pretty lame lineup that he should dominate. also, you gotta figure that Konerko was expected to be out after watching the play where he got hit yesterday, so it likely was priced in from the start.