Talking Monday bases

God1 · 08-01-11, 12:30 AM

projecting how will a player will hit in a given game by using their track record vs that pitcher is a bad move. Why judge a player based on 20 or 30 ABs when you can judge him on 1000? All it takes is one live drive or two dropping for a hit or a fly ball carrying 15 more feet ONCE to meaningfully impact those numbers

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 12:30 AM

Like Arizona a lot Bank, and I want to pound the shit out of the Dodgers with Kerfax.

NY Playa · 08-01-11, 12:43 AM

D back playing well, and motivated!

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by God1

projecting how will a player will hit in a given game by using their track record vs that pitcher is a bad move. Why judge a player based on 20 or 30 ABs when you can judge him on 1000? All it takes is one live drive or two dropping for a hit or a fly ball carrying 15 more feet ONCE to meaningfully impact those numbers

how many times have i told you im agnostic, so im pretty convinced you dont exist so i rather discuss things with ppl i feel are worth talking too.....so if you dont mind just quietly fade alll my plays and let me have a thread where i go about things my way

feel free to create your own thread and start sharing some knowledge but we know you not doing that so until then good day.

God1 · 08-01-11, 12:47 AM

You are basing "cahill owning seattle" and extrapolating that as a reason to bet on oakland when the majority of their lineup has less than 10 ABs against him and no one with even 20 ABs. It's beyond absurd to think this is even a hair relevant. Hmm lets see lets look at these 8 ABs those are pretty important, i'm going to give them alot of weight vs the other 1000 ABs this hitter has on record. makes sense!!!

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 12:51 AM

Any reason you're not interested in the Dodgers?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:52 AM

take sea then pimpin. and gtfo out of my thread and back to the stat geek section please......dont care what you think about what i say or your opinions...if you think sea is gonna light cahill up go pound their tt ov, start a thread about it with some metrics that you act like books dont factor. you lack imagination and personally i have always thought you were a Coward, why dont you proove me wrong by being a man for once and honoring my request to stay out of my threads...i didnt see you yesterday, go bash all the plays we made in there, we lucky sometimes, whatever. i thought we had a understanding that you wouldnt get involved with me and i wouldnt bother you?

shopbar picks · 08-01-11, 12:56 AM

ive have bet unders in the left coast late game this year and have made money. But 5.5 Lad/Sdp seems drastict. But love under in sea. Both teams are top 5 in ERA. and bottom 5 in hitting

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Any reason you're not interested in the Dodgers?

Originally posted by shopbar picks

ive have bet unders in the left coast late game this year and have made money. But 5.5 Lad/Sdp seems drastict. But love under in sea. Both teams are top 5 in ERA. and bottom 5 in hitting

two birds with one stone post...Nc reason im not on LAD as of yet is because 2 things, ive been riding kershaw a ton and feel like i should be selective with what i do.

but far as the total goes and the way i wanna play this game is probably to get on the neither team to score 3 prop and More than likely a bigger bet on Lad to score 3 1st..should be +450 on the neither prop then lad willl be - but shouldnt be more than -110 -115 range. best way i have found to go about these low ass totals, you protect yourself from a over while basically betting the team you team like at a better price and you get reallly nice odds if a pitching duel breaks out, it has been working well for me since interleague in right spots. seriously doubt if sd scores 3 1st that lad wins anyway.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

two birds with one stone post...Nc reason im not on LAD as of yet is because 2 things, ive been riding kershaw a ton and feel like i should be selective with what i do.

but far as the total goes and the way i wanna play this game is probably to get on the neither team to score 3 prop and More than likely a bigger bet on Lad to score 3 1st..should be +450 on the neither prop then lad willl be - but shouldnt be more than -110 -115 range. best way i have found to go about these low ass totals, you protect yourself from a over with the better team and you get reallly nice odds if a pitching duel breaks out, it has been working well for me since interleague in right spots.

Luebke's looked more ordinary lately. Adams is gone as SD's chief set-up man.

I think it's worth paying the juice and taking the Dodgers here. Kershaw's been borderline brilliant in his career at SD.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Any reason you're not interested in the Dodgers?

I will be if the Padres start the 3 minor leaguers as expected. Padres offense against lefties is night and day compared to righties(worst vs around 20th) but combined those 3 minor leaguers they are trotting out have i think only around 250 ABs combined this season so those numbers should be worse. I'm just not sure how to properly price Luebke. He goes max 6 innings. Adams going 1 inning vs replacement looks to be about .15 runs difference. There's nothing to indicate Luebke's performance so far is a fluke other than his breadth of experience only being 90 innings. So how much do you take away for his inexperience? I don't know but it looks like he's being priced almost a full run in ERA(just my guess) worse than kershaw, I don't know how fair that is. He'll get 2 ABs at an OPS of .150, Kershaw will see those with an OPS .500. That is worth alot more than most people realize(about 4 cents). I guess my answer is I just don't know

btw, nothing about luebke has looked "more ordinary lately". His xFIP in July was the best of any month so far

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Luebke's looked more ordinary lately. Adams is gone as SD's chief set-up man.

I think it's worth paying the juice and taking the Dodgers here. Kershaw's been borderline brilliant in his career at SD.

but that why you take more on LAD to score 3 1st bro. that be less than taking LAD and if sd scores 3 1st you think dodgers are coming back?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:14 AM

NC i def agree with god on that last point. you being way harsh on Leubke kid has good stuff and can handle this lineup, yea he got shook at phi but you had to expect that as he has been in a lot of pitcher friendly parks against pitcher friendly lineups before that. then yea he is young and didnt bounce back well against a hot zona team, but i gotta believe he settles back down and is comfortable against this lineup.

which is why i will also roll the dice on neither to score 3 because la offense in sd? def potential of not scoring 3 and if cy kershaw does his thing that nice payout with the lad to score 3 1st paying if they gonna win anyway imho.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by God1

btw, nothing about luebke has looked "more ordinary lately". His xFIP in July was the best of any month so far

Do you watch the games or just look at stats?

First, Luebke's only pitched in July, sans one start.

Second, he's given up 7 runs in his last 11 IP. Arizona hit 3 homers against him in 6 IP his last time out.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

NC i def agree with god on that last point. you being way harsh on Leubke kid has good stuff and can handle this lineup, yea he got shook at phi but you had to expect that as he has been in a lot of pitcher friendly parks against pitcher friendly lineups before that. then yea he is young and didnt bounce back well against a hot zona team, but i gotta believe he settles back down and is comfortable against this lineup.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher, but chances are he's going to have to be great to beat Kershaw. He didn't look good against Arizona at all to me.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

yea he got shook at phi but you had to expect that as he has been in a lot of pitcher friendly parks.

Pitcher friendly parks have no impact on how many he strikes out or walks

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by God1

Pitcher friendly parks have no impact on how many he strikes out or walks

The "pitcher friendly park" sure didn't help him vs. Arizona.

I couldn't disagree more about that statement, BTW. How do you figure? "No impact"? Are you telling me a guy would produce the same BB/K numbers @SD vs. @PHI?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:18 AM

lot better price that way and i havnt found the downside of doing it this way yet. would have worked perfect with det yesterday as well.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

First, Luebke's only pitched in July, sans one start.

He was in the pen before that. If anything you should look at it as a positive that he has been better starting than in the pen

Second, he's given up 7 runs in his last 11 IP. Arizona hit 3 homers against him in 6 IP his last time out.

Jesus really? You are talking about runs given up? That's so luck-heavy. Why not focus on the factors he can control and that are most predictive of future success: walks, Ks, and GB rate. And to talk of HRs given up in the short term gimme a break, that's even more luck. Nearly every pitcher will be league avg % of flyballs that go as HRs

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by God1

Pitcher friendly parks have no impact on how many he strikes out or walks

i in fact disagree. i think a young kid like that feel more comfortable in a park that he knows isnt a bandbox and in return making it easier for him to confidently attack the k-zone.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The "pitcher friendly park" sure didn't help him vs. Arizona.

He Ked 6 and walked 2 in 6 innings, thats a great game. HRs in the short term are almost pure luck

I couldn't disagree more about that statement, BTW. How do you figure? "No impact"? Are you telling me a guy would produce the same BB/K numbers @SD vs. @PHI?

If we are talking independent of the lineups he's facing then of course

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

i in fact disagree. i think a young kid like that feel more comfortable in a park that he knows isnt a bandbox and in return making it easier for him to confidently attack the k-zone.

First off, the catcher is the one calling the game. Second, let's paint up a scenario for you. They got some guy at the plate who they have the full scouting report on, it's a 1-2 count and the scouting report says this guy chases sliders away. Are they now going to say no, let's throw a fastball inside because we are playing at Petco and not Citizens bank? you really think that is how it goes down?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:24 AM

unless of coarse you want to argue with me that psychology is not a factor in the gm, in that case we surely have no business talking.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by God1

He was in the pen before that. If anything you should look at it as a positive that he has been better starting than in the pen

Jesus really? You are talking about runs given up? That's so luck-heavy. Why not focus on the factors he can control and that are most predictive of future success: walks, Ks, and GB rate. And to talk of HRs given up in the short term gimme a break, that's even more luck. Nearly every pitcher will be league avg % of flyballs that go as HRs

Did you watch the game or didn't you? Arizona hit him hard. Period.

I'm not saying Luebke isn't a good pitcher, but to beat Kershaw, you have to really be on your game -- especially when you have this Pads team behind you.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:26 AM

Petco not only produces more walks than the average park but it produces more Ks too http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

unless of coarse you want to argue with me that psychology is not a factor in the gm, in that case we surely have no business talking.

psychology is a huge factor. now go answer my question

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by God1

First off, the catcher is the one calling the game. Second, let's paint up a scenario for you. They got some guy at the plate who they have the full scouting report on, it's a 1-2 count and the scouting report says this guy chases sliders away. Are they now going to say no, let's throw a fastball inside because we are playing at Petco and not Citizens bank? you really think that is how it goes down?

If you don't think the park has an effect on how pitchers think and catchers call a game, thus influencing K and BB numbers, then we should just stop this discussion right now.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by God1

Petco not only produces more walks than the average park but it produces more Ks too http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L

Isn't that number skewed by the home team's trends, given how many games they play there vs. everyone else?

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Did you watch the game or didn't you? Arizona hit him hard. Period.

Ok go ahead and focus on the extreme luck aspect and not the skill aspect of this one game.

I'm not saying Luebke isn't a good pitcher, but to beat Kershaw, you have to really be on your game -- especially when you have this Pads team behind you.

Of course but all that matters is what the % chance is that kershaw beats him at petco. It's being priced around 56%

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by God1

First off, the catcher is the one calling the game. Second, let's paint up a scenario for you. They got some guy at the plate who they have the full scouting report on, it's a 1-2 count and the scouting report says this guy chases sliders away. Are they now going to say no, let's throw a fastball inside because we are playing at Petco and not Citizens bank? you really think that is how it goes down?

you are missing my point completely...i wont disrespect you by saying you are beneath me as you would do. im saying that a youngster in particular, pitching in unfamiliar surroundings, against a solid lineup, in a bandbox compared to a pitcher friendly park isnt throwing different pitches he is overthrowing or trying to be to careful because he doesnt have the same feeling that he can get a guy to make contact and keep it in play as he does in a pitcher friendly park, hence creating the same pitches called and thrown to be executed more poorly.

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by God1

Ok go ahead and focus on the extreme luck aspect and not the skill aspect of this one game.

Of course but all that matters is what the % chance is that kershaw beats him at petco. It's being priced around 56%

Arizona didn't get "lucky" that night. They hit him hard. If you'd watched the game you'd know that.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Isn't that number skewed by the home team's trends, given how many games they play there vs. everyone else?

Yes, and the Padres have awesome pitching and terrible hitting so you wouldn't expect a higher than expected walk rate

No coincidences · 08-01-11, 01:32 AM

I'm starting to think your screen name should be "Splitting Hairs" L&M.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

you are missing my point completely...i wont disrespect you by saying you are beneath me as you would do. im saying that a youngster in particular, pitching in unfamiliar surroundings against a solid lineup in a bandbox compared to a pitcher friendly park isnt throwing different pitches he is overthrowing or trying to be to careful because he doesnt have the same feeling that he can get a guy to make contact and keep it in play as he does in a pitcher friendly park, hence creating the same pitches called and thrown to be executed more poorly.

It's a nice theory, and to make it relevant, how many cents are you shaving off luebke's expected performance as a result?