Talking Monday bases

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 10:50 AM

I definately think the A's should be higher here though, I'm baffled by how low they are despite how opposite Mariners are playing from the A's right now.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by miyakuza

I definately think the A's should be higher here though, I'm baffled by how low they are despite how opposite Mariners are playing from the A's right now.

yea if anything at least we can say we got a good number as it already up 5 cents from when i played it and when the late night chasers jump on them it should go up some more i would think....cant go wrong beating closing numbers

BigDan · 08-01-11, 11:08 AM

there a lot of umps i rather avoid today for either of the 2 unders i have played already. handful of over loving assholes gonna be behind some plate tonight.

bigballer891 · 08-01-11, 12:11 PM

I like oakland but I like the over better, oakland has been pounding the baseball lately, over after over, still no adjustment, at 6.5 its worth a shot.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by bigballer891

I like oakland but I like the over better, oakland has been pounding the baseball lately, over after over, still no adjustment, at 6.5 its worth a shot.

i really like the kid pitching for sea tonight and i think with the way oak been hitting this over is gonna get killed, if i get a at least neutral ump i will be seriously considering the under in this game. not sure how you can like over better than oak as if they score more than 4 you can pretty much chalk them up for a W right now. On the other hand i could easily see them winning a game that stays under.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

took oak-112, seems like line gotta go up. and im happy here. i would actually lean under with a good ump but ill worry/talk about that later.

also jumped on ..

stl/mil u 7.5 -107. .hope i get a solid ump but figure hook could easily come off and id like to have it....

lad-126. again figure this line prob goes up, not sure if i will keep it.

zona+123..wasnt sure whether or not to play now so did for half a unit in case it drops(really not sure), like spot for zona but still dont like playing against sf at home or Cain for that matter.

that all tonight, we talk more about it during the day, really need some sleep.

already talked a lot about zona and oak i believe but didnt really say much on the stl/mil un so thought id give a explanation now that ive had some sleep.

not a lot of potency after fielder/bruan in mil lineup atm, lots of holes and Carp has never had much problem with Braun. Mil under have been like gold as of late as they are winning with pitching. Cards lineup wasnt connecting much against a guy they typically have great success against last night, Grienke in good form and this has the makings of playoff intensity baseball. grabbed at un 7.5-107 cause i thought there was a chance we lost the hook or it got really juiced today. also worth mentioning that both these teams now have Plus pens and are capable of really shortening the game..there are some bad over type umps lurking tonight but had to pull trigger early as im not looking to get juiced or lose that hook that could be really important.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

couldnt sleep yet..again w/o ump

arz/sf un 6 +102...wont be plus later on.

not sure what not to like in this game. sf offense hasnt gelled since the addition of Beltran, and while it should only be a matter of time i dont see Kennedy as the guy for them to turn the corner on. SF sliding a little and Cain is a stopper so to i just cant see him not performing well in this one, zona bolstered their pen with the addition of Zegler and i would think he is available today, sf pen is top notch all day every day. another playoff type atmosphere where i feel pitching controls the game.

HoulihansTX · 08-01-11, 01:00 PM

Jake Peavy

Teams are batting .426 (29 of 68) off the right-hander after his 75th pitch compared to .220 (43 of 195) before.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:03 PM

where did you find that stat?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Jake Peavy

Teams are batting .426 (29 of 68) off the right-hander after his 75th pitch compared to .220 (43 of 195) before.

yea ive noticed he has been getting tagged at some point in 5th-6th inning as of late...great stat brother.

nyy tt ov 4.5 is really tempting to me. as well as nyy -1. cant see CC having a lot of problems with this lineup and he has been very good at US Cellular over the years with a 9-1 rec and a whip just barely over 1. Not sur how anyone can expect anything diferent from Peavy atm and then you get cws middle relief, i certainly dont see the value ppl are talking about in playing cws in ths game.

HoulihansTX · 08-01-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by God1

where did you find that stat?

Espn game previews.

God1 · 08-01-11, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

I definately think the A's should be higher here though, I'm baffled by how low they are despite how opposite Mariners are playing from the A's right now.

how low it is? really? -113 on the road for a team that has one of the 3 worst lineups in baseball and an average pitcher going?? when have you ever seen that?

BigDan · 08-01-11, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by God1

how low it is? really? -113 on the road for a team that has one of the 3 worst lineups in baseball and an average pitcher going?? when have you ever seen that?

it lower than what it will close at. for someone who preaches beating closing numbers you sure are hypocritical.

God1 · 08-01-11, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

it lower than what it will close at. for someone who preaches beating closing numbers you sure are hypocritical.

what? if it beats the true close(key here is true, not the vig close) of course it's a great bet. the guy was sounding like it's some great bargain when you are laying a serious price for one of the worst teams in baseball

and my call on the brewers was sharp once again, at -117 i said it was at least 10 cents underpriced, now at -130

BigDan · 08-01-11, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by God1

what? if it beats the true close(key here is true, not the vig close) of course it's a great bet. the guy was sounding like it's some great bargain when you are laying a serious price for one of the worst teams in baseball

and my call on the brewers was sharp once again, at -117 i said it was at least 10 cents underpriced, now at -130

no doubt you were correct with mil. i didnt doubt that one bit and never said otherwise, that why you didnt see me post anything on stl gm as i would not even have thought bout playing them at the opening number in that game, still think my un 7.5 @-107 is a good place to be on that game.

personally the more the over gets tagged in the sea/oak gm the more im thinking under is where im gonna be at. believe ppl overreacting to A's offense of late and not giving Beaven the respect he deserves.

BiffTFinancial · 08-01-11, 02:40 PM

what's up, Big Dan. i lean under in StL/MIL, AZ/SF, CHC/PIT, waiting to see if we can get an early tip as to umps.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

what's up, Big Dan. i lean under in StL/MIL, AZ/SF, CHC/PIT, waiting to see if we can get an early tip as to umps.

i hate the ump rotation for today but said fukk it on stl/mil under and zona/sf because i felt like last night was the best line i was gonna get on either of those. stl un already starting to take on juice (wouldnt be surprised if the hook got lost at some point) and the plus is gone from sf under...no opinion on scrubbies total really...

I/O · 08-01-11, 04:22 PM

Didn't read the whole thread Dan, gotta go to work tomorrow

but I hit the Snakes

BigDan · 08-01-11, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by I/O

Didn't read the whole thread Dan, gotta go to work tomorrow

but I hit the Snakes

yea it got a little cluttered with BS unfortunately, hopefully it doesnt continue to happen. always happy to be on the same side as you brother

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 04:58 PM

Hey God, its low with cahill and the powering A's. Duh. Tb came to Seattle and was favored by over 10 cents more, even though A's are playing much better ball with their ace on the mound.

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 05:01 PM

I have to agree Dan, Kennedy might outduel cain tonight.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

I have to agree Dan, Kennedy might outduel cain tonight.

and i got a sweet number

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:13 PM

adding..

nyy/cws un 4 ff -115...lots of things make me like this play, ill just throw credit to everyone that made me think this the way to go. LB trust Peavy to be sharp tonight and his splits against lefties are pretty good. Cws cant hit lefties and proved it once again yesterday with miller throwing meatballs they still couldnt put up runs. Houli's kick ass stat about Peavy before and after 75 pitches helps make ff seem more viable as we wont have to worry about him past 5 or the cws middle relief. And yes even "god" was in on me making this decision so i will give him credit as well (and of coarse all the blame if it loses

) .....just seems like a really good combinations of factors to make a play here.....

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 05:22 PM

My "sharp" plays..

Cubs (line movement)
nationals
Arizona
Florida
Cleveland

I/O · 08-01-11, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by I/O

Didn't read the whole thread Dan, gotta go to work tomorrow

but I hit the Snakes

908 Houston Astros -1½ +230*
915 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +185*

Redscot · 08-01-11, 05:27 PM

Looks like HPDerryl Cousins in Houston, not much of an angle there.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

My "sharp" plays..

Cubs (line movement)
nationals
Arizona
Florida
Cleveland

wanna play scrubbies as i have a ton of reasons ive posted in several threads that have nothing to do with line moves. But not gonna lie it scares me. cause after all it still the cubs.

you know im on zona already..

really close to taking the Fish so will prob join you..

Cle another one i tried to get behind but to worried now that there a book on Tomlin that Bosox may hit him hard.

i try to stay away from Nats gms as much as possible but dont think it a bad play....GL brother.

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 05:28 PM

Playing Seattle and Rockies for half a unit.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Looks like HPDerryl Cousins in Houston, not much of an angle there.

honestly sometimes i wish they were all neutral, even tho ive did ok with certain umps this season.

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 05:29 PM

Thanks buddy, looking for another great day today!

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by I/O

908 Houston Astros -1½ +230*
915 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +185*

ive never accused you of lack of balls brother

d-bags rrl prob does have some merit seeing how sf isnt about losing 1 run games.

miyakuza · 08-01-11, 05:31 PM

May do half on Houston.

BigDan · 08-01-11, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

Playing Seattle and Rockies for half a unit.

whoa you flipped on me in that one.

borednaz · 08-01-11, 05:33 PM

If Houston beats Cin by 3 I swear I'll give up gambling forever..I might also need someone to watch me so I dont go to Houston & hobble both teams out of principal alone.

borednaz · 08-01-11, 05:35 PM

Im not big on cin btw but to lose to houston by that margin would be insane. Maybe by 1, if they made a pact with satan maybe 2, but even he cant give them a 3 point win.