Thursday

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 09:43 AM

would anyone happen to know if the roof will be open or closed in Milwaukee today?

rickbo528 · 07-28-11, 09:46 AM

Sometimes the Red Sox don't seem to score as much for Beckett as the other starters but over 5 team total seems reasonable.

God1 · 07-28-11, 09:50 AM

When is beckett going to come back to earth. 2nd in baseball in strand rate, 1st in BABIP, 45 ******* percent flyball rate lol with only an 11% IFFB rate. I accept a slightly better than average BABIP due to a material change in his fastball this year but that still leaves room for some serious regression

BillyGoat · 07-28-11, 09:53 AM

I like the Twins/Rangers under. Good luck today.

Ice House · 07-28-11, 09:58 AM

surprised you like the under in the rangers game and braves game....

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by rickbo528

Sometimes the Red Sox don't seem to score as much for Beckett as the other starters but over 5 team total seems reasonable.

you've got that right. in fact, the under is 14-4-1 in his games, and Sox have scored over 5 only 4 times for him. it's partially due to the fact that they don't need to score as many runs for Beckett, partially due to the fact that Beckett is often matched up against a good SP for the opposition. i don't think very much of Luke Hochevar. Royals have scored a lot of runs for him lately, which would be nice, but i don't see them hanging that many on Beckett. fortunately, the Red Sox have always knocked him around, hoping for a little more of that this afternoon.

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by God1

When is beckett going to come back to earth. 2nd in baseball in strand rate, 1st in BABIP, 45 ******* percent flyball rate lol with only an 11% IFFB rate. I accept a slightly better than average BABIP due to a material change in his fastball this year but that still leaves room for some serious regression

it's a great question. hopefully this afternoon. Royals have scored double digits for Hochevar in 3 of last 4 starts, and while that's way too much to hope for against Beckett, i'd be very happy with 4-5 from KC.

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Ice House

surprised you like the under in the rangers game and braves game....

i like the over in the Braves game. those pens are gassed, and neither of the SPs is a guy who you want to leave out there for an inning too long.

with Rangers under, there should be no wind tunnel based upon weather reports (and in fact we should have an 8-10 mph wind in from CF), and both SPs have been throwing up a lot of zeroes. Rangers lineup really looked like shit last night against Duensing and Baker is a much better pitcher. you are correct that normally i don't play unders in Arlington (and i never play them if there is a chance that the wind tunnel will be in effect).

I/O · 07-28-11, 02:27 PM

lotta peeps loving that Texas Under BTF

BOL

blackeyeshamus · 07-28-11, 02:32 PM

biff, you are the totals player specialist.
just jumped on the under in SD, and the over in OAK.
don't play totals often, but I'm trying to switch up my game.
good luck with all your plays today, I may follow you later.
thanks, and good luck. positive karma!

God1 · 07-28-11, 02:58 PM

Doin good work wade buddy put the game out of the reach in the first

edit: I spoke too soon at 3-0. gives up a bomb to make it 5-0. guy is money

God1 · 07-28-11, 03:33 PM

Just thinking.....NL MVP looks like a clear 2 man race Braun or Upton depending on who makes the playoffs. AL MVP at this point probably looks like in order Bautista, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Sabathia, Verlander. I don't expect a pitcher to win but you can make a really good case for either and they will both get votes

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:34 PM

2* Red Sox TT over 5 (-130) - LOSER

cruel tease with Crawford's drive in the 9th, looked as if we'd get the push. bah.

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by God1

Doin good work wade buddy put the game out of the reach in the first

edit: I spoke too soon at 3-0. gives up a bomb to make it 5-0. guy is money

yeah, Wade is a true fkn tomato can. hard to believe that the Rays keep trotting him out there, with a team built on pitching and defense, you'd think that they'd have a better option but apparently not.

God1 · 07-28-11, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

yeah, Wade is a true fkn tomato can. hard to believe that the Rays keep trotting him out there, with a team built on pitching and defense, you'd think that they'd have a better option but apparently not.

The most ridiculous part about it is they are using a 6 man rotation right now. This is probably wade's last start unfortunately

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by God1

Just thinking.....NL MVP looks like a clear 2 man race Braun or Upton depending on who makes the playoffs. AL MVP at this point probably looks like in order Bautista, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Sabathia, Verlander. I don't expect a pitcher to win but you can make a really good case for either and they will both get votes

no Adrian Gonzalez?

God1 · 07-28-11, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

no Adrian Gonzalez?

Not even close the guy plays 1B

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by God1

The most ridiculous part about it is they are using a 6 man rotation right now. This is probably wade's last start unfortunately

would make a bad pen even worse.

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by God1

Not even close the guy plays 1B

didn't seem to hurt Pujols, Morneau, Votto or Howard....in 2006, both MVPs were 1Bs.

God1 · 07-28-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

didn't seem to hurt Pujols, Morneau, Votto or Howard....in 2006, both MVPs were 1Bs.

Votto was 2nd in the NL in WAR by 0.2 in 2010(to pujols). Adrian is a full 2.0 behind Bautista(bigger gap by end of the season too). Bautista has significantly better offensive numbers and plays a more important position. Ellsbury has similar offensive numbers but steals 30 bases and plays a much more important position and better defense plus an additional full 1 WAR, same goes for Pedroia but a 1.5 WAR gap

Pujols was first in WAR by far in 09. 1B doesn't preclude MVP but when there are players playing much more important positions having better seasons it's a big drawback

And of course Pujols was robbed in 06 only because they gave it to him the year before they didn't want to give it to him again

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by God1

Votto was 2nd in the NL in WAR by 0.2 in 2010(to pujols). Adrian is a full 2.0 behind Bautista(bigger gap by end of the season too). Bautista has significantly better offensive numbers and plays a more important position. Ellsbury has similar offensive numbers but steals 30 bases and plays a much more important position and better defense plus an additional full 1 WAR, same goes for Pedroia but a 1.5 WAR gap

Pujols was first in WAR by far in 09. 1B doesn't preclude MVP but when there are players playing much more important positions having better seasons it's a big drawback

And of course Pujols was robbed in 06 only because they gave it to him the year before they didn't want to give it to him again

well-put. splitting the Red Sox vote with Pedroia and Ellsbury won't help Gonzalez either. if i were to bet on it, i'd bet Bautista and Pedroia to finish 1-2 in MVP voting.

God1 · 07-28-11, 04:00 PM

if you included value to team in the playoffs. It would go 1. Verlander, 2. Sabathia and no one else close

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by God1

if you included value to team in the playoffs. It would go 1. Verlander, 2. Sabathia and no one else close

yeah, but Verlander won't be in the playoffs, not after the Tribe acquired Fukudome today. word is that they're not finished, i guess they're going after the second worst OF on the market next.

God1 · 07-28-11, 04:28 PM

Wade Davis has pitched 5 innings of no hit ball after the first

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 04:33 PM

did the Rays and A's trade bullpens?

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 04:34 PM

i ******* hate betting sides.

BigDan · 07-28-11, 04:43 PM

what up everyone, just got in the door. Hope all is well.

looking at..

stl-.5 ff -125...more nervous about this Garcia ff than i have been in a while but hard to argue with 16-4. even harder to argue with what Jamie does at home. initially was a little nervous about cards not being able to score off Wandy and while i dont think they get a ton i like the bottom half of the lineup to do a little work tonight.

hou/stl u 7 +115...why pay the juice for the hook when i dont think we see more than 5 in this game anyway..Wandy some road struggles but has handled the majority of this lineup quite well, if Cards get offense it will come from bottom of the order so damage should be limited. Stros can hit lefties a little which Garcia clearly is but the kid is nails at home and Larussa has a full arsenal of bullpen for the 1st time all year so even if Jamie gets in a little trouble in the 6th the pen can do the job.

Twinks +140..gotta take this with Baker.

Tor-1 -122...Im sure Rasmus gonna all a sudden look great (for a month or 2 anyway) that what kind of bitch he is and AL prob take a minute to figure his stupid ass out, not to mention jays stroking it and have solid numbers against Bergesen.

thoughts? comments? Hate? (i know you got something God

)....

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 04:45 PM

i'm going to check out the Card FF and total. gotta pull myself together, A's have sapped my will to live.

BigDan · 07-28-11, 04:48 PM

i rarely get involved in games in oak besides totals from time to time. that team is hard for me to read and i inevitably end up on the wrong side when i try. all i had today was kc/bos u9, mil rl, and cincy (these fuks are sinking fast).

God1 · 07-28-11, 04:57 PM

Wade Davis becomes irrelevant when the bullpen gives up 8

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 05:08 PM

adding

3* Astros/Cardinals under 7.5 (-113)
1* Cards FF -1/2 (-125)

updated card
3* Pirates/Braves over 7.5 (-113)
3* Twins/Rangers under 9.5 (-109)
3* Astros/Cardinals under 7.5 (-113)
2* Red Sox TT over 5 (-130) - LOSER
2* A's ML (-124)
1* Cards FF -1/2 (-125)

BigDan · 07-28-11, 05:14 PM

i take it you liked the under?

BiffTFinancial · 07-28-11, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

i take it you liked the under?

yes. i didn't cap that game initially today because i really liked the four plays that i had, and also liked AZ/SD under. my formula has HOU/STL finishing in a range of 6.3-6.4. wherever my formula perceives more than a run of value between the line and my projection, it's pretty much an automatic 3*. it actually has a better margin than PIT/ATL over 7.5 (8.38-8.5) or MIN/TEX under 9.5 (8.22-8.76).

BigDan · 07-28-11, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

yes. i didn't cap that game initially today because i really liked the four plays that i had, and also liked AZ/SD under. my formula has HOU/STL finishing in a range of 6.3-6.4. wherever my formula perceives more than a run of value between the line and my projection, it's pretty much an automatic 3*. it actually has a better margin than PIT/ATL over 7.5 (8.38-8.5) or MIN/TEX under 9.5 (8.22-8.76).

sweet, glad you agree. always nice when the numbers back my creative genius

leaned under in sd as well but luckily didnt play it, of coarse this also the 1st gm of the series i didnt bet Pads