Why is Zambrano -140?

[HoulihansTX]

I'm @ a loss for words. Bud Norris is a better pitcher, on an equally horrendus team.

From an intangible perspective, I do not think Big Z cares either. His comments 1.5 months ago practically intimated him quitting. Besides he is making about 30 million combined until the end of the 2012 season. With all the factors above I can not back this guy.

Thoughts?

[jds07v]

I would almost never lay -140 on big Z

[actiondan]

Good value on Houston this weekend imho. Astros give the Cubs fits, and are a better road team. Cubs dont respect their tampon manager.

[fsfalcons]

gotta go with the stros on this one

[warriorfan707]

why are you asking this question?

The Astros are a AA team, thats why.

[EXhoosier10]

I'm already on Houston

[HoulihansTX]

why are you asking this question?

The Astros are a AA team, thats why.

What does that make the Cubs?

[chantrain]

two shitty teams, now we gotta figure out which is shittier, or less shitty?

good luck with that

[JT OZ]

They both suck, it's just the fact that the Cubs are big favorites against anyone that would give people a reason to question the line.

[doe]

Totally agree TX I cannot back big z either but to answer your question I believe the line is a result of cubs being@home + all the public remembers is how the cubs beat halladay the last series but saying all that I'll be on stros only unknown for me is the total

[MoneylineExpress]

good queston. Big Z is a gascan and should never be that big of chalk

[ShogunRua]

Don't the Cubs usually get their ass kicked on Fridays? Agree with above posters that Zambrano should never be -140...EVER.

[gohabsgo]

Betting against the cubs when they are home favorites has been a money maker since 2004.
Here's the querie:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=team%3DCubs+and+HF&submit=query

I'll def be on houston on friday

[God1]

zambrano is the best hitting pitcher in baseball that alone will add at least 4 cents to the line

[God1]

Betting against the cubs when they are home favorites has been a money maker since 2004.

why are games the cubs played 7 years ago relevant? is there even 1 player that is still on the team from then?

[gohabsgo]

why are games the cubs played 7 years ago relevant? is there even 1 player that is still on the team from then?

Ok then it's been a money maker in 2009-2010 and this year. Good enough?

2011:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=team%3DCubs+and+HF+and+season%3D2011&submit=query

2010:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=team%3DCubs+and+HF+and+season%3D2010&submit=query

2009:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=team%3DCubs+and+HF+and+season%3D2009&submit=query

[gohabsgo]

Past results are not in any way a guarantee of future results but it tells us something. They are bad at home and Zambrano is garbage so i'll bet against them in this situation any day.

[God1]

Ok then it's been a money maker in 2009-2010 and this year. Good enough?

I just thought it was hilarious you took into account games that were played 6-8 years ago.

Of course if you take the team with the 2nd worst record in the league you would've lost money betting on them that's just common sense. But wait, they are playing the worst team in baseball, the Astros! I wonder how the astros have fared in away games this season?

How about uglier:

here's this year:

http://SportsDataBase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2011+and+team%3DAstros+and+site%3Daway&submit=query

here's 2009,2010, and this season combined:

http://SportsDataBase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3E2008+and+team%3DAstros+and+site%3Daway&submit=query

Now tell me again why your cubs home numbers are more relevant than these astros away numbers?

[gohabsgo]

Astros have been money maker as away dogs in 2010:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2010+and+team%3DAstros+and+AD&submit=query

But i agree not this year so far though:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2011+and+team%3DAstros+and+AD&submit=query

[pacocn]

gentleman, Zambrano has had a lot of success against the
Astros in the past it is just that simple, i am looking into
the under in this one Wind will not be a factor the totals are
not out yet, but i don't see either team scoring much.

[God1]

Astros have been money maker as away dogs in 2010:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2010+and+team%3DAstros+and+AD&submit=query

But i agree not this year so far though:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...D&submit=query

LOL first you talked about the cubs this year, then you said last 3 years. I gave you astros as big losers this year and the last 3 years. Now you pick JUST 2010 that they made money and want to tell me that makes it an ok bet? Are you ******* retarded?

[gohabsgo]

I just thought it was hilarious you took into account games that were played 6-8 years ago.

Of course if you take the team with the 2nd worst record in the league you would've lost money betting on them that's just common sense. But wait, they are playing the worst team in baseball, the Astros! I wonder how the astros have fared in away games this season?

I don't think it's that simple, the pirates for instance have been garbage in the last few years but at the same time the best home dog money maker in the league.

[BigDofBA]

I don't think it's that simple, the pirates for instance have been garbage in the last few years but at the same time the best home dog money maker in the league.

This.

It's not that simple. Houston is the worst team in baseball. I find it funny everyone seems to like them tomorrow.

I liked the Cubs and now I like them even more.

[gohabsgo]

LOL first you talked about the cubs this year, then you said last 3 years. I gave you astros as big losers this year and the last 3 years. Now you pick JUST 2010 that they made money and want to tell me that makes it an ok bet? Are you ******* retarded?

Ok since your are the one retarded i'll do the math for you son.

Betting on the astros for the last 3 years as away dogs:

2011: -768
2010: +908
2009: -1100

Total: -960$ (Based on 100$ unit bet per game)

Betting against the cubs when the are home fav for the last 3 years:

2011: -552
2010: -1775
2009: -605

Total: -2932$

[God1]

the pirates for instance have been garbage in the last few years but at the same time the best home dog money maker in the league.

They also were one of the best home teams(relative to their overall record) in baseball the last few years so of course that will be the case. Last year they were THE BEST home team in baseball with 70% of their overall wins coming at home, tops in the league. You keep cherry picking ridiculous subsets. Why not try the Brewers at home this year? I wonder if they were profitable

why again do you think the cubs home numbers have significantly more worth than astros away numbers?

[BigDan]

Houli you know you my dawg, but the real question is why the fukk would you talk about this game?

Would you be surprised if this game went one of 12 different ways???

I didnt read one post cause honestly i just dont see how this series isnt wasting energy. both teams find ways to lose ...

GL everyone

[God1]

...

[God1]

Ok since your are the one retarded i'll do the math for you son.

Betting on the astros for the last 3 years as away dogs:

2011: -768
2010: +908
2009: -1100

Total: -960$ (Based on 100$ unit bet per game)

Betting against the cubs when the are home fav for the last 3 years:

2011: -552
2010: -1775
2009: -605

Total: -2932$

and this is definitely the way to shutdown the books...just compare home and away money line profit the last 3 years and pick the one that has yielded more. that is definitely the formula for putting pinnacle out of business!!!!!!!!!!

[gohabsgo]

They also were one of the best home teams(relative to their overall record) in baseball the last few years so of course that will be the case. You keep cherry picking ridiculous subsets. Why not try the Brewers at home this year? I wonder if they were profitable

why again do you think the cubs home numbers have significantly more worth than astros away numbers?

It's not ridiculous cherry picking subset. Did you know if you'd have bet every single home dogs games since 2004 you'd made money(82 units). Generally speaking home dogs are the best bet and aways favs obviously the worst bet.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=HD&submit=query

We are not playing the lottery where past results means nothing. I believe they mean something in sports betting.

[gohabsgo]

and this is definitely the way to shutdown the books...just compare home and away money line profit the last 3 years and pick the one that has yielded more. that is definitely the formula for putting pinnacle out of business!!!!!!!!!!

It's not a MAGIC formula, it's just an INDICATOR

[God1]

It's not ridiculous cherry picking subset.

Pirates were the best home team in baseball last year. I edited my post with the numbers: 70% of their wins coming at home. How much more ridiculous can you get?

Did you know if you'd have bet every single home dogs games since 2004 you'd made money(82 units).

did you know that the earth is round?

Generally speaking home dogs are the best bet and aways favs obviously the worst bet.

Cubs are -145

We are not playing the lottery where past results means nothing. I believe they mean something in sports betting.

They do mean something, but you need to find past results that fit into the following category. 1. the market doesn't price in, 2. the market doesn't price in, 3. the market doesn't price in, 4. large enough sample size, 5. actual predictive power 6. the market doesn't price in

got it?

are you really trying to tell me that the market is completely oblivious to these stupid trends you are passing off here?

[Rixsaw]

I believe the Cubs has won 2 consecutive Friday games. Can they win 3 in a row?

[gregm]

Ok since your are the one retarded i'll do the math for you son.

Betting on the astros for the last 3 years as away dogs:

2011: -768
2010: +908
2009: -1100

Total: -960$ (Based on 100$ unit bet per game)

Betting against the cubs when the are home fav for the last 3 years:

2011: -552
2010: -1775
2009: -605

Total: -2932$

Great post and great site Habs. Thanks for this!

[warriorfan707]

I believe the Cubs has won 2 consecutive Friday games. Can they win 3 in a row?

Irrelevant trends which are purely coincidental are not a good way to approach betting mlb

[borednaz]

Cubs have won at least the last 4.early games @home for the first game played. Each time it looked they were the easy fade, each time I lost cash.

Im taking the cubs and hedging with run in the first prop. Because Z is such a gas can one of these suck @$$ teams will score asap.