Just stick to your sides and forget about totals 
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gotta say im getting real close to that point. besides the neither team to score 3 prop on a few gms ive been struggling since the all star break. hope everyone took notice and faded the shit out of the ones i posted in here, if i cant hit stl totals it pretty obvious im off at the moment.Originally posted by NOREGRETSJust stick to your sides and forget about totalsComment -
MLB totals are the way. in no other sport can you get a play that finishes at 25% or 250% of the posted total. a rough week does not mean it's time to abandon, just time to re-think.Comment -
Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
oh im not a quiter bro, doesnt hurt to step back and re-evaluate tho, especially while sides have been so nice as of late.Comment -
the books have made some adjustments.....the 6.5's you used to see...are 6 now.....some back of the rotation pitchers are being priced
like aces.(.totals.).....the only constant that I see left is on getaway days ie( Angels game today) games move along when teams have planes to catch.....think time to look at some big moneyline dogs as well
remember...the trading deadline is fast approaching, teams are falling out of contention....Comment -
jrock that why in the right spots with aces i have been playing the neither team to score 3 prop, usually +450 but have hit a few at +600 (mostly interleague when totals were great and scores were low). yesterday with lad/sf i played it but also hedged with lad to score 3 1st +120 as i thought Timmy was my only concern. planned on playing that bitch on tex/laa today but got home like 3 minutes to late
...this prop has been great surprised i never really noticed it till interleague when we had tons of low scores, still in spots with the right teams it is something to look into.
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Any plays for FridayComment -
Something I found that i think is useful
I'm long overdue for a discussion of what I call "trade secrets" in sports handicapping. Trade secrets are the unpublicized nuggets of wisdom that the "experts" and "insiders" use to beat the game. There are trade secrets in many fields including stock investing, poker, and of course -- sports betting.
Trade secret usually involve trends and angles to watch for when betting games. Unfortunately, most trends and angles do not last forever. By the time they are publicized, results regress to the statistical mean (which means it was just a temporary deviation), or worse, the public starts pounding a side due to the trend and value diminishes on the wager (remind me to do an article on trends where precisely this has happened).
One angle I consistently try to exploit is betting baseball totals given a certain number of circumstances. Here are a few ideas you may want to consider when looking at baseball totals and deciding whether to play OVER or UNDER:
First, it is generally advisable to look for UNDER plays, rather than OVER plays. Most novice sports bettors tend to bet OVER the total. More knowledgeable players understand that it is usually advantageous to bet on the prospect that NOTHING will happen, versus SOMETHING will happen. This doesn't mean that there are more UNDERS than OVERS. Most seasons split 50-50 on totals (or close to it). For an OVER to occur, the pitching of both teams must break down and/or hitting must come to life. In the event just ONE of the teams has either a good night pitching, or a very bad night hitting -- the game will usually go UNDER the total.
Rules changes (a larger strike zone) have created lower scoring games in 2001 versus 2000. April statistics show that scoring is down on average about one run per game in the majors this season. It appears Las Vegas sportsbooks are just now catching on to this trend, as totals are still posted in the 9-10 range in most AL games and 8-9 in most NL games.
Remember that National League games are more inclined to go UNDER the number, rather than the American League (if given the same run total). This is because 12 percent of the hitting lineup is essentially "dead" in the National League (since pitchers hit and their averages are marginal). Since there is a 12 percent edge in the NL, this means totals should be about a run per game less on average in each NL game. This is rarely the case when you look at the totals posted in Las Vegas however -- which are oriented almost entirely towards starting pitching. NL totals remain at 9 or 9.5 in many games -- which is incomprehensible given the differences between the leagues. Exceptions of course apply to Colorado and Houston home games.
Pitching in early to mid-season games is generally much stronger (and usually more predictable) than pitching in late season games. By mid-August and September, many pitchers are worn out, most teams are out of contention, and novice pitchers are brought up from the minors to face contending teams. I tend to do a complete flip-flop in betting totals when considering games before and after the All-Star break. I start looking for lots of OVER plays in late July. Of course, a lot depends on the lineups and what is happening around the league. But, my view is that games become increasingly higher scoring as the season progresses (albeit by a small margin).
Look for situations where a team's bullpen has been stretched to the limits. Games where a team has given up double digits in a couple of recent games are prime candidates to go OVER the total in the next game (especially with a shaky starter), since these teams are desperate to give their middle and late relief pitching a rest. If the starter gets knocked out early, the bullpen is in serious trouble.
When betting UNDERS, look for home teams with strong starting pitchers, since that potentially eliminates 3 additional outs at the bottom of the ninth. Sure, the home team winning and not batting in the bottom of the ninth is "only" worth just under 6 percent to a baseball total, but every single edge counts. By contrast, look for OVERS to occur when the road team has a definite advantage with the starting pitcher. Three extra batters means the added possibility that one hitter might hit a home run, hopefully with base runners if you have an OVER.
Look for key numbers, such as OVER 8 or 8.5 and UNDER 9 or 9.5 Games that are tied 4-4 will ALWAYS go OVER the total when the number is 8/8.5. And games that are tied 4-4 will usually go UNDER the total when the number is 9.5. A total of 10 is often a good UNDER bet, since it takes 11 runs to lose the wager.
Beware of laying more than -115 on a total, unless you have a decided edge (such as a key starter, an NL game, and a home team that's favored -- for example). Laying -120 or -125 on an total is rarely a wise play. Also, almost never go UNDER in a game where the total is 7 runs. Back in the days when pitching was king, two starters would duel for 9 innings and produce a 2-1 final score. But with complete games being so rare, UNDER 7 is rarely a bet with any value -- no matter is P. Martinez or K. Brown is on the mound.
In intense rivalries (San Francisco/Los Angeles and Boston/New York, for example) be more inclined to bet UNDER the total. Teams get fired up against their rivals and often hitters are not as relaxed in the batter's box. Managers tend to exert more control over their teams and are not as willing to take chances. Although I have no statistics to support this claim, based solely on personal recollections, I believe that more "rivalry" games go UNDER than OVER. I will post a correction if anyone can prove otherwise.
Never underestimate the power of a half-run. The difference between 8 versus 8.5 and 9 versus 9.5 is monumental. I can't even begin to count the number of totals I've won by a run or half a run. Just as pro football (admittedly, my first love) prodices "key" numbers such as 3 versus 3.5 (for instance), baseball games often land on the fringes of a total. The point is -- it's a very good idea to shop around and find the best number possible.
Finally, these points should never be taken as the sole reason to make a wager. Obviously, you have to weight many factors and be as familiar with the teams as possible.
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Those are solid pillars to go by if you are going to play totals. I would also highlight the importance of the key numbers. Always watch for a move off of those key numbers. I would, however, disagree with the statement respecting the key number of 7. Perhaps in or around 2003 when that article was first written (as evidenced by the pedro and kevin brown reference) 7 was not a good number for unders. However, over the last 2-3 years, that number has been highly profitable in spots.
Nevertheless, that article does a good job of pointing out some basics rules to follow (most of the time).
Thanks for sharing!Comment -
det/min un 8.5 +105 un 4.5 ff -110....
imho there a serious overreaction going based off a few things all coming together, 1st zoolander gm goes over which always seems to get certain ppl betting the over the next day
2nd two pitchers that both got lit up last time these teams squared off which will inevitably draw over bets in.
3rd Sherzer road splits and overall lack of confidence in either starter, combined with Tigers impressive numbers against lefties.
reason #3 is certainly the hardest to get around and the only one worth talking about as it makes this a harder bet than it normally would be, 1st lets start with det and lefties as i normally feel the same way about this but in July det has saw Francis, Duffy, Zito and didnt do a whole lot against any of them, obviously the case could be made that those were all during one of their numerous little hitting funks and they have been hitting as of late. For what its worth I did hear Oak manager say that he was bringing in a lefty out of pen every time late to turn the switch hitters around and i saw him do this one of the gms with success for sure.
Not sure what it is about me that tends to like both these starters at times? Scherzer obviously has the stuff to be good but hard to trust, did seem like last season he really didnt round into form till July, he also went 9 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits against twinks at their house last sept. so i know he is capable.
Duensing has to be the concern, tigers have roughed this kid up for sure, however they did have the adv of seeing him 3 times very closely together last season, the 1st time he was respectable scattering 9 hits a walk and hit batter in 6.2 allowing 3 unearned runs. after that 1st time it has been all det no question again shelling him this season. He has stepped up as of late but not facing anywhere near the offensive force that det can be, this a big gm for twinks and i believe a lot riding on this kid to have a answer for the tigers, gotta trust this coaching staff to have him prepared and that he can execute the plan.
The fact this thing opened at 8 (just half run higher than Zoo vs Pavano) when linesmakers had to know over action would be coming in from several directions makes me believe we see a well played ball gm from both of these youngsters and a close hard earned under cashes. Or they both get blown up yet again and i look like a asshole..not sure which, either way that the play for me. GL everyone.Comment -
Thanks for the help...Comment -
Thanks BigDan you gave me an 0-2....Comment -
Anyone have any total winners please post them....Comment -
how did that topgame tail work out for you?Comment -
That was another stinko.Originally posted by God1Comment -
What is so difficult about picking totals?
My plays for Saturday are below.Comment -
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Posted Record
108-75
+144.93 Units
The Winning Continues Saturday
15 Units Bost -1 run -200
5 Units LAA-103
4 Units Phil -135
4 Units St. Louis -135
4 Units KC -106
Have a system that picks RL winners on the fade. Today I had Cubs and Texas.
These are just to see how they do not official plays
Losers tomorrow on the RL are
Atl
Mets
Mil
Det
CWS
Lets see how the fade does on the RL and ML. Might have found something good for us.
Cinn +169 and -120
Fla +161 and -126
San Fran +176 and -126
Minn +156 and -132
Clev +189 and -106[/COLOR]Comment
