LTA's MLB Plays

[pacocn]

Lta, great work, keep it going

[taxe91]

No doubting the Angels #'s against LHP this season, but it fly's in the face of reason. Their lineup is RH dominant and should start to punish LHP dearly. The Angels have been a value machine over the last 2-3 weeks, and surprisingly continue to be so imo.

You read my mind, Trout, Pujols, Trumbo should all murder southpaws. In fact im going to look deeper into their splits and see if theres more to it.

[BennyFang]

MLB Final Record for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB Final Record for 2011 Playoffs

18 - 13 = +5.182

Tough last two days of the season, but a great season overall making enough money to pay for a full year of daycare for the baby and a 10 day luxurious vacation to pretty much anywhere in the world my wife and I want to go.

Lets just say my wife is happy with my final profit numbers and that is all that matters.

Thanks for a great season!

Time to concentrate on NBA, NFL, NCAAF and some spot plays in NHL and CBB. Can't wait till next years MLB already.

This will be our thread for every badeball season that I am on SBR, so check back in around spring training or hot stove news.

Good luck!

.....from 10/29/11 in this thread. Speaks to his sustainability & diligence. Cheers...

[Love The Action]

Will be on the two early plays for tomorrow with ya LTA. The Yanks play has so much value it is almost scary (no jinx)

I like the under as well, but am always wary of Morrow when he starts to appear to be hitting his stride.

What's your thoughts on the battle for L.A.? I am not surprised in the least by Capuano's early success, his advanced stats from last year foreshadowed better results this year....yet, the Angels are really hitting their stride, whilst the Dodgers lineup continues to outperform IMO. Richards is young, dumb and full of....well you know the rest...he has the unfamiliarity angle. I think it is Statement time for the Angels in L.A. and + odds seems very tempting.

Might add to the Yanks play. What about the over in the LAA/LAD play?

[Redscot]

Might add to the Yanks play. What about the over in the LAA/LAD play?

My first thought was I just don't get where the Dodgers are getting runs from......then I saw the O/U is at 7, wow. IMO you could probably pencil the Angels in for 5 tomorrow......

edit: wrc+ 130 last 2 weeks, wrc+146 last week...it is starting to happen for the Angels, it was inevitable.....

[taxe91]

My first thought was I just don't get where the Dodgers are getting runs from......then I saw the O/U is at 7, wow. IMO you could probably pencil the Angels in for 5 tomorrow......

Coors Field was the perfect 'heater' for that offense. Still unexplainable to me why they struggle against leftys, looking through their game log the only 'elite' lefty they've faced this season is David Price. Also had a loss against Chris Sale. I'm skeptical their struggles will continue.

[taxe91]

I pulled the trigger on the Angels, Red. I got it at +110 guessing it wouldn't stay at that price (judging by other book's prices) and its down to +107 now, was even contemplating adding a play on the -1.5 run line as I love the way the Angels are hitting lately, but my book hasn't got those odds up yet (maybe for the best!). Gl to everyone

[brahmabull117]

Coors Field was the perfect 'heater' for that offense. Still unexplainable to me why they struggle against leftys, looking through their game log the only 'elite' lefty they've faced this season is David Price. Also had a loss against Chris Sale. I'm skeptical their struggles will continue.

Angels offense has been hot for a while now. It's just that scoring 5 runs at home in their ballpark for LAA is like scoring 10 runs in that sandbox of Coors Field

[That Guy]

Good work LTA - variance was our b!tch today!

[Love The Action]

Congrats on the stellar day.
Missed your plays.
We are Aussies abroad. Took my boy to our first game.
Great day.

That is what it is all about buddy....glad you had a great day!

[Redscot]

Hey Red that Angels at + money play caught my eye too, while Richards has only had one start thus far he's fairly high on the Angels depth chart as a prospect. Did very well in that one start and got stretched out nicely too. In regards to Capuano, he's gotten 'figured out' so to speak in his last two starts. 5 inning outings and 4 earned runs on both occasions. The angels have really poor offensive numbers against leftys though and to be honest thats the one thing holding me back at this stage

Getting back to Capuano taxe. I don't think it is so much "figured out" He is night and day home and away. Capuano gives up a lot of fly balls and if you take a look at his hr/9 and hr/fb ratio splits you will see a drastic difference when he is in the spacious and forgiving Dodger stadium and Citi field of last year.

What I find really impressive about Capuano is his 11.5 swinging strike %. As I stated earlier I really expected Capuano to have better results this year, in fact when I do my preseason projections he was one of the pitchers that projected greatest era improvement from last year. Still, all that being said I have him pegged for a 3.88 era this season, so there is some coming back down to earth to come most likely.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Nationals/Blue Jays under (8)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Here we have two top level pitchers this year who are both in a groove. I am concerned that Morrow through 119 pitches in his complete game shutout of the CWS on June 6th, but he is accustomed to higher pitch counts both last year and this year. However, I'm not going to sweat it too much with the value provided by these starters. When you consider their WAR are both at or above 1.4, SIERA under 3.65 and K% over 20%, you can understand why my model loves this play. Washington is bottom 10 versus righties and Morrow will be hard one to hit around now that he seems becoming more consistent. Toronto is always a formidable lineup, but they have been cool of late until exploding for 12 runs against Atlanta. Nevertheless, I don't see that happening on Monday but it should help bring more over bettors to the window. I have this game set at 6.67 and it is going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I think it stays below that number and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees ML (-109) 1.5x and (-112) 0.50x (Locked)

I love Nova in this matchup versus Delgado. Both guys have unfamiliarity working for them, but Delgado will have to face the #2 offense versus righties while Nova will be up against a middle-of-the-pack lineup against righties. New York comes in smoking hot with their offense seemingly firing on all cylinders. There is some concern as to who will be sitting under NL rules but regardless NY has more offensive weapons. I have the Yankees set at -122 giving us solid value on this play and I am rolling with the Yankees for 2x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play#2. Correct units denoted above.

I should have made the Yanks a 2x play last night. I just had to pay an extra 3 cents to add 0.50x at -112 but I think it's worth it considering I have them set at -122. I am rolling with the Yankees for 2x. Good luck.

[taxe91]

Getting back to Capuano taxe. I don't think it is so much "figured out" He is night and day home and away. Capuano gives up a lot of fly balls and if you take a look at his hr/9 and hr/fb ratio splits you will see a drastic difference when he is in the spacious and forgiving Dodger stadium and Citi field of last year.

What I find really impressive about Capuano is his 11.5 swinging strike %. As I stated earlier I really expected Capuano to have better results this year, in fact when I do my preseason projections he was one of the pitchers that projected greatest era improvement from last year. Still, all that being said I have him pegged for a 3.88 era this season, so there is some coming back down to earth to come most likely.

Great insight. I didnt even notice his fly ball % is up at a career high thus far this year. The wind is blowing out to right field though so its safe to say I'll be banking on Pujols/Trumbo and co. to launch a few opposite field line drives!

[Redscot]

So here's a little exercise for a boring Monday morning. Match the stats to the pitcher:

11.5% swinging strike, 44% GB, 93.7 avg FB,---------3.62 Siera
8.5% swinging strike, 41.4 GB, 92.9 avg FB ---------3.63 Siera

One is Morrow and the other is Jackson................

Granted the Bluejays bat's have been much hotter of late, and Clippard has pitched 3 days in a row for the Nat's. Still, +146 seems generous to me.

[taxe91]

So here's a little exercise for a boring Monday morning. Match the stats to the pitcher:

11.5% swinging strike, 44% GB, 93.7 avg FB,---------3.62 Siera
8.5% swinging strike, 41.4 GB, 92.9 avg FB ---------3.63 Siera

One is Morrow and the other is Jackson................

Granted the Bluejays bat's have been much hotter of late, and Clippard has pitched 3 days in a row for the Nat's. Still, +146 seems generous to me.

and a pitcher in morrow who is pitching more to contact this year but has a mendoza line for a BABIP. The Jays definitely have the better offense in this matchup, then again so did the Red Sox in their series against the Nats..

Did you end up making a play on the over in the LA matchup? the over has gotten juiced to -130 at my book.

[Redscot]

and a pitcher in morrow who is pitching more to contact this year but has a mendoza line for a BABIP. The Jays definitely have the better offense in this matchup, then again so did the Red Sox in their series against the Nats..

Did you end up making a play on the over in the LA matchup? the over has gotten juiced to -130 at my book.

I didn't play it, and will probably end up regretting it. 7 is a cozy number to have for that push, but that is too much juice for me.

Jays are getting even more expensive now.....hmmm....what's up with that. Nat's getting no love.

[Love The Action]

Keep your eye on the bucos for totals LTA, the have the best bull pen era in the league.

We've done quite well on Bucs unders and expect that to continue. Very similar to last season. I will be interested to see how the oddsmakers adjust to their recent hot streak. I have already seen them in the -140 range with McDonald on the mound and I suspect we will continue to see value hard to come by on the side. Although, when they play public teams is when their price will be worth a look. Pirates are definitely an interesting team moving forward.

[Love The Action]

So here's a little exercise for a boring Monday morning. Match the stats to the pitcher:

11.5% swinging strike, 44% GB, 93.7 avg FB,---------3.62 Siera
8.5% swinging strike, 41.4 GB, 92.9 avg FB ---------3.63 Siera

One is Morrow and the other is Jackson................

Granted the Bluejays bat's have been much hotter of late, and Clippard has pitched 3 days in a row for the Nat's. Still, +146 seems generous to me.

I didn't play it, and will probably end up regretting it. 7 is a cozy number to have for that push, but that is too much juice for me.

Jays are getting even more expensive now.....hmmm....what's up with that. Nat's getting no love.

It's a lazy morning small card. I don't think we will see much line movement until later in the day. I think there is there is value on Washington, but I like the under more and I'm just not sure the Nats offense can put up enough against Morrow (weak against righties and perhaps without Harper). Then again, the Jays' offense has not been as hot as some think before their 12 run game yesterday because in the preceding four games they scored 2, 3, 3 and 4 runs respectively. When you consider that Jackson has been a beast this this year, the Nats look even better at a +150 price.

I know Morrow's SwStr% has gone down and his BABIP says a regression is coming, but I think his addition of a cutter, increased use of his changeup and ability to throw strikes/avoid walks has led to his increased consistency. His BB/9 is more than 1 full run less than his career average. While he still blows up at times, they are fewer than previous seasons. I would not back him at such an expensive price and I would not back him against a top lineup, but I don't think a regression appears tonight. I think both pitchers perform well and that is why I will roll with the under and lay off the side.

After looking at the LAA/LAD game, I do agree with you and lean to the Angels. Although, any price under the +105 range makes it tough and most value is gone.

[Redscot]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/defensive-shift-and-babip/

This is not an in-depth study but it's implications are interesting nonetheless. A few weeks back I mentioned a Rays broadcast that I watched that had a sabermetrics theme. One of the comments that came out of the broadcast was the assertion that the Tampa Bay pitching staff (which led baseball in 2011 in babip) could maintain there unusually low babip numbers because they are way ahead of the curve on shifting the defense and having their pitchers pitch to the shift. This is not your grandma's run of the mill shifting. Maddon implements a variety of shifts and uses them liberally, against RHB as well:

http://thecutoffman.mlblogs.com/2012/05/02/joe-maddon-spray-charts-and-defensive-shifts-part-i/

Anyway, slow day, most people in the metrics community feel that defensive metrics are the next great breakthrough, and I think Tampa for one is blazing the trail.

[pacocn]

Red, great info

[Redscot]

I continue to be , Nats now up to +156. You can get a +1 RL on the Nats at + money and if you really liked them tonight you can get +190 + on a -1RL. Frankly the line itself has me to meow to play it.

[Redscot]

Red, great info

[TheBack]

Redscot read my thread on the nats . Let me know what u think.

[DiamondBack]

Morrow pulled after 9 pitches. Pulled something in his back it seems???

Oh well. let's hope the pen can go the distance and have a decent game. Seen stranger.

Congrats on the multi unit 4 last night LTA.

[Love The Action]

You gotta be kidding me...wtf! This is the second time in ten days one of the starters in my under play got pulled after a few pitches. This is bullshit.

[Love The Action]

So pissed. How can this keep happening and yet it never happens in our favor.

[Tofudog]

I tailed your NYY play and this under today.. You wouldn't believe my bad luck with MLB recently.. I had the Brewers -1.5 run line the other night, and after they were up 6 to 2, they almost let the Padres beat them. Lost big taking -190 Dodgers against Phillies a week ago and lost on Reds last night... horrible.. Im gonna tail you again tomorrow tho LTA so keep it up.

[Tofudog]

Now a HR for the Jays.. this will be over in 4 innings

[PickWinnerAllDay]

So pissed. How can this keep happening and yet it never happens in our favor.

I'm fukked by this too. Unreal.

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Now a HR for the Jays.. this will be over in 4 innings

Yeah. We might as well stop watching. This piece of shit Jackson is handed a gift and will probably pitch like a rooster sucking pile of shit. A HR and a walk in the first 3 batters. What a loser.

[Redscot]

Lets back down from the edge here fellas. Not ideal by any stretch of the imagination, but they still need to push across 6 more runs for us to lose this. When a pitcher goes down like this unexpectedly it sometimes opens up opportunities for the subsequent games with the BP getting run down.......

P.S. Morrow is uncanny though whenever I start to approach a comfort zone with him

[Tofudog]

I don't usually bet baseball so this is a dumb question probably. Is 8 a push or would we lose since it wouldn't be under 8?

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Lets back down from the edge here fellas. Not ideal by any stretch of the imagination, but they still need to push across 6 more runs for us to lose this. When a pitcher goes down like this unexpectedly it sometimes opens up opportunities for the subsequent games with the BP getting run down.......

P.S. Morrow is uncanny though whenever I start to approach a comfort zone with him

I appreciate the optimism, I wish I had any. In my opinion concerning the ledge, we have already jumped and already falling. Our last chance is superman swooping down and grabbing us 1 foot above the ground floor.

[Redscot]

I don't usually bet baseball so this is a dumb question probably. Is 8 a push or would we lose since it wouldn't be under 8?

It's a push.

[Tofudog]

Ah. Thanks. I wasn't sure but I was thinking it probably wouldn't be a push because that way books would clean up on bets that fall on the number. There is still hope. LTA, what do you think about Angels/Dodgers game?