LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by slikec

I am just curios how much of your bankroll is for you 1unit? For me since i play up to 6 unit plays is 0,5% and i saw you playing 4x plays i would say you probably have set 1unit-1%?

It is generally recommended that you keep your unit size between 1% of your BR in the conservative or 3% being aggressive. However, I don't have a specific BR amount that I have sitting offshore because I bet through local books. Instead, I allot a specific amount at the beginning of each market's season that is based off of profit previously won in that market and ROI estimates for the next season. So each market I play -- MLB, NBA, NCAAF and NFL has its own BR. At the end of the day, I use aggressive units for MLB that ends up between 2% and 3% of my overall MLB BR, but if you convert that to my total BR it would not be anywhere near that aggressive in scope. I also use a modified flat betting scheme that adjusts my unit size according to the overall size of that market's BR. Good luck buddy.

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

LOL @ Padres having value

3.60 runs per game on the road, worst road era in the league and a road record of 6-20. Bass is 1-3 on the road himself with a 5.00 era. That team hasn't won a single road series all season so far either

Brewers win by 2-3 runs

The Rock has convinced me! Just kidding...good luck on your plays, but I disagree and do think there is over 15 cents of value.

**errrzzx** · 06-10-12, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Tough start already in that big play under. I may have to stop playing unders altogether if this one doesn't hit for me

you're a joke. that white sox play didn't come close to hitting and neither will this one. Sanche sucks

**Trivial** · 06-10-12, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Tough start already in that big play under. I may have to stop playing unders altogether if this one doesn't hit for me

Ouch. Ouch. Homers suck with bases loaded and you are on unders.

**Rose'** · 06-10-12, 01:05 PM

Good call on the under for 4x

**brahmabull117** · 06-10-12, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

The Rock has convinced me! Just kidding...good luck on your plays, but I disagree and do think there is over 15 cents of value.

LTA, for being such a smart man, you baffle me with your lack of interest in road/home splits

There are at least 2-3 teams every year in the league where betting them home/away is literally night and day.

**errrzzx** · 06-10-12, 01:06 PM

keep pissing on Vogelsong though. the reality is that you should be pissed on

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012

Play #1

Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)

I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rays/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 4x (Locked)

This went to plus money overnight and I missed that price, but I am jumping on this at -105 as Pinny just started to juice the under from the -102 it was sitting at. Shields is in a great bounce back spot and the advanced numbers for both guys jump off the page at you. My model loves this pitching matchup, we have solid bullpens with the Rays ranked top 10 and Marlins top 14 and the defenses are not below average. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 against righties and I think this sets up nicely for a big under play with most wagers backing the over. Not sure if the roof is open or closed, but the wind is blowing in if the roof is open. Either way, I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into this game in a real "pitchers duel." The ump is Fairchild who is a neutral o/u guy but with a strike rate in the high 62.8% range lifetime. I have this game set at 5.1 and it is going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

Play #4

Dodgers ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure value play so I will not worry about the reverse line movement just like I didn't worry about it yesterday when we see the same line movement favoring Seattle. I have this game set at -114 which is very close to where Pinny opened. The line movement created this value so I will jump on it now before it the more people buy the Dodgers. I'm not sure what Seattle money sees in this game because statistically speaking this is a pretty straightforward play because despite his inconsistency, Billingsley's numbers far outshine Beavan across the board, LA is the much better hitting team with top 10 stats versus righties compared to Seattle's bottom 10 numbers and the bullpens are not even close where again we have a top 10/bottom 10 Dodger advantage. I like the numbers in this game and the line movement created the value, so I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rockies ML (-119) 1x (Locked)

The best available price for me this morning has been -115 and I regret not taking it a few hours ago. I've been waiting to see if this would drop a bit so I could get it around the -112 range, however, I think -119 is enough value to play considering I have the Rox set at -129. I know Tulo is out but we have a huge starting pitcher advantage with Friedrich who has unfamiliarity on his side over Santana who has poor numbers and has faced this Rox lineup in the past. Colorado will be looking to avoid the sweep and I expect Santana to get shelled in the thin of Colorado. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Padres ML (+153) 1x (Locked)

Too much value to pass up considering I have this set at +136. As I mentioned earlier, Bass has had three bad starts in a row giving up 4, 5 and 6 runs. However, he still has better numbers than Gallardo on the season and Gallardo just gave up 5 runs to the Cubs. Well the Padres are a better offense with the Cubs considering Quentin is back in the lineup which gives them a bat other teams must respect. When you consider that Bass has never faced the Brewers before giving him that unfamiliarity and Gallardo has actually been hit well by this Padres lineup giving up .327 BAA and OPS over .9 to this same Padres lineup in a small sample of 55 at bats. Nevertheless, this is a pure value play that I liked the more I looked into it. I like the value at +152 considering I have this set at +136 and I am rolling with the Padres for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by errrzzx

you're a joke. that white sox play didn't come close to hitting and neither will this one. Sanche sucks

Huh? You mean the -1RL play that pushed? Yeah, that wasn't close at all

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

LTA, for being such a smart man, you baffle me with your lack of interest in road/home splits

There are at least 2-3 teams every year in the league where betting them home/away is literally night and day.

I do pay attention but that's not everything. The implied odds of the Padres winning are better than the price indicates. In most instances, that is a play when it gets above 10 cents or so worth of value.

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by errrzzx

keep pissing on Vogelsong though. the reality is that you should be pissed on

Karma my friend....karma. I feel bad for you.....

**errrzzx** · 06-10-12, 01:12 PM

why not put 4 units on the padres? It's not as good the big under play? What does the model say? The truth is you're a model of failure

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Rose'

Good call on the under for 4x

Reverse jinx me Rosey!!!

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by errrzzx

why not put 4 units on the padres? It's not as good the big under play? What does the model say? The truth is you're a model of failure

Whatever.....blah, blah, blah. You've really hurt my feelings with your internet tough talk. Have a nice life ghosty.

**notoriouz** · 06-10-12, 02:35 PM

Question LTA:

You've had 21 pushes thus far, though I'm unsure how many of them were -1RL. Is it not +ev long term to be playing the ML on those -1RL or is it too much juice to play on the ML? I've seen the unlucky breaks you have had on them and just wondered would it be more profitable long term to bet the ML. I'm still trying to see how I should be betting baseball and see what works for me as this is the first year where I have followed the league closely

Good luck with your plays today as always

**Vasco** · 06-10-12, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Rose'

Good call on the under for 4x

Originally posted by errrzzx

you're a joke. that white sox play didn't come close to hitting and neither will this one. Sanche sucks

**Catchn_Picks** · 06-10-12, 02:56 PM

Yea babyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Miami under makes up for a lot of crap!!!!!

Congrats LTA for the strong play winner!

**slikec** · 06-10-12, 02:59 PM

4unit play cashes

**meader99** · 06-10-12, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by slikec

4unit play cashes

Easy winner, never in doubt, except those from the peanut gallery.

**truanswer** · 06-10-12, 03:12 PM

haha **** all the trolls in here talking shit before the game was even over, great win lta

**chound** · 06-10-12, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by errrzzx

why not put 4 units on the padres? It's not as good the big under play? What does the model say? The truth is you're a model of failure

I don't always aree with LTA's plays but I don't see you posting any?....Shouldn't you be in the newbie section douchebag

**chound** · 06-10-12, 03:14 PM

Oh wait a minute....I get it......you joined the forum.....followed him for a few days and blew your BR and now he's the failure......

**brahmabull117** · 06-10-12, 03:20 PM

LT, why did you play the Rockies instead of the Over?

This "unfamiliarity" stuff just doesn't seem to hold value consistently, especially when you have a terrible Rockies pitcher facing a red hot Angels offense in Coorsfield. I smelled a huge slugfest from the getgo

**Trivial** · 06-10-12, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by chound

Oh wait a minute....I get it......you joined the forum.....followed him for a few days and blew your BR and now he's the failure......

Awesome. Simply awesome post!

LTA - hard work and patience is paying off as we all know.

**blumpkin** · 06-10-12, 03:44 PM

love those nice an easy winners like houst/chi over! thanks lta

**Catchn_Picks** · 06-10-12, 03:59 PM

(Fair weather friend alert!)

As I have been telling you all along LTA....

I love those total plays!!!

**Primet76** · 06-10-12, 04:07 PM

Shaping up to be a good day LTA. I followed on the 4 unit. Nice work!

**jayson311** · 06-10-12, 04:21 PM

Keep your eye on the bucos for totals LTA, the have the best bull pen era in the league. I personally dont know how to cap totals. Good call today

**Derty D** · 06-10-12, 04:47 PM

Solid success and congrats on a very good day!

**CHAZ** · 06-10-12, 05:02 PM

Great day LTA! Congrats bud

**Trivial** · 06-10-12, 05:09 PM

I know it is superstition and what I am about to say has absolutely no ryhme or reason and cannot possibly be real over enough sample size. Also, I am a reasonable and sane person. But I have to vent, or at least ask people if anyone even remotely has a "luckier" sportsbook than others.

I have been keeping my own stats. I do far better at withdrawing from some vs. deposiiting more and more into others. For example, I only deposit and rarely withdraw from Pinny.

Trying to figure out why. I always go for the best value line as I learned from LTA.

How can it be that I do better or worse year after year with the same results in some sportsbooks. This is not just baseball, but NFL football which is where I do my most betting.

I only have withdrew from Pinny twice in 3 years while others I have placed 10+ withdrawals when my BR gets to a level that I want to secure my investments.

Anyone else keep stats like this?

I am starting to think of only placing wagers in winning sportsbooks. :-)

**Catchn_Picks** · 06-10-12, 05:16 PM

Trivial, I have a book that has the worst lines for most of my plays and yet the account balance keeps going up. I have never added to it. I have another that has the best lines with low juice that I constantly struggle with.

No, it is just probability. The good book should do better over time.

I agree, it is weird and a bit frustrating at times.

**slikec** · 06-10-12, 05:55 PM

Hehe same here

At pinny i had 30units 40 days ago and i busted account 5 days ago

Overall i am up this period around 10 units.

For sure mainly is just variance. I place 30-40% of bets at pinny and when i dont bet is when i get better line at other books which is when pinny started juicing to much. So there must be sth. to that also.

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

LT, why did you play the Rockies instead of the Over?

This "unfamiliarity" stuff just doesn't seem to hold value consistently, especially when you have a terrible Rockies pitcher facing a red hot Angels offense in Coorsfield. I smelled a huge slugfest from the getgo

Congrats on your win on the over. Unfortunately, this post is almost a perfect illustration of why you are almost universally considered one of the biggest d-bag trolls on this website. Had you asked this question before the game started, I would have respected it and answered. Instead, you waited until Colorado was losing and your play on the over had won to come in here and "prop" yourself up.

Your rudimentary knowledge of baseball is exposed when you call Friedrich "a terrible Rockies pitcher" when in fact he is one of the best young lefties in the game this year with the numbers to back it up, despite pitching at the worst park for pitchers. Here ya go....stop looking at ERA and get a clue http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...942&position=P

**Love The Action** · 06-10-12, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by notoriouz

Question LTA:

You've had 21 pushes thus far, though I'm unsure how many of them were -1RL. Is it not +ev long term to be playing the ML on those -1RL or is it too much juice to play on the ML? I've seen the unlucky breaks you have had on them and just wondered would it be more profitable long term to bet the ML. I'm still trying to see how I should be betting baseball and see what works for me as this is the first year where I have followed the league closely

Good luck with your plays today as always

Good question but you are missing a key element. You look at the pushes, but you fail to look at how many -1RL plays I have lost and the juice I would have incurred had I played those games on the ML. I generally don't pay for juice over the -130 range with some rare plays up to -140. I reduce the juice on plays higher than than range by using the -1RL. While I risk the push, I also avoid the heavy juice when I lose. Good luck buddy.