LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/4/2012

Play #1

Dodgers ML (-118) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Rockies ML (+124) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Mariners ML (+141) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Rangers/Athletics over (7.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

It will be cold but the wind will be blowing out relatively hard. Parker has pitched well but the rangers are a more formidable opponent despite their unfamiliarity with him. I like this play because I think oakland's offense is a bit undervalued right now with Cespedes back and I expect them to score more runs than earlier in the season. I have this game set at 8.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Cubs ML (+124) 1x (Locked)

My local keeps moving up and down between +120 and +125 and I jumped on +124 although I would have preferred +130. Despite how bad the Cubs are, they are undervalued in this game because of Samardizja's advantage over Vogelsong and a comparable offense statistically against right handed hitter where both team are between 15 and 20 in significant categories. I will take a shot that Samardizja outduals Vogelsong and the Cubs put up a few runs behind him. I have the Cubs set at +115 and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

This is a joke right?


"backing the cubbies" should not be in anybody's vocabulary this year. They're 6-20 on the road for god's sake. They are this year's version of the Astros from last year


I've been a cubs fan since 2000, this team will be the worst team in the league this year

Like the value on Samardizja. Good luck on your plays.

[doogtonmai]

Isn't the GM for the Cubs the same guy that took Boston to a championship breaking the curse? Isn't this same GM whom took the Dodgers GM's philosophy and built the Boston franchise ("Moneyball")? I find it interesting to note that even in the movie, the Dodgers started off very slow. Sincerely "Die-Hard Cubs Believer."

[brahmabull117]

Like the value on Samardizja. Good luck on your plays.

...they've lost 9 straight on the road, Vogelsong has a 1.30 era at home and the cubs offense on the road is absolutely putrid anyways

[italianbandit]

Brahma, you sound like a nice guy, but you still don't understand gambling for profit.

[Love The Action]

...they've lost 9 straight on the road, Vogelsong has a 1.30 era at home and the cubs offense on the road is absolutely putrid anyways

Ok....thanks for your opinion but none of that means much. ERA is a completely meaningless stat. If you want to cite to a pitching statistic with meaning look at SIERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. In addition, when you say they have lost nine in a row, that just tells me a reverse to the mean is coming. They should win a few here and there. Finally, the only thing that truly matters is price. If this one closes around +121 or less then the cubs were a good play otherwise they were not and it has nothing to do with the outcome. As cappers, the only thing we can control is making +ev plays by getting good numbers that beat the market. The wins and losses are out of our control, but if you are getting good numbers you are making +ev plays that will see you profitable over the long term. That is what matters to me. GL

[Love The Action]

Really wanted to play the cardinals but just could not pull the trigger with Gee pitching so well right now. I also like the under but the cardinals are scary in that a breakout game is due. Will be interested to see what happens....

[brahmabull117]

In addition, when you say they have lost nine in a row, that just tells me a reverse to the mean is coming.

huh? The astros were the same quality team as this last year, they started off the season with a similar road record and finished losing almost 71% of their road games


The cubs are going to finish with a similar road record as they have now, my guess is that they will lose about 68-72% of their road games


I'm telling you this as somebody who has watched the Cubs play for a very long time, this is the worst team in the league. They're bottom 5/10 in the league in starting pitching, relief work, offense and defense. Samardja could pitch a great game and lose 6-0 because of 2/3 errors and the bullpen allowed 3 runs in bottom of the 8th inning. Anybody who puts money on the Cubs simply has no respect for their money


I just don't know how you can say +120 is good value for a road game in which the road team is arguably the worst in the league (while the hometeam is very respectable)

[Redscot]

Really wanted to play the cardinals but just could not pull the trigger with Gee pitching so well right now. I also like the under but the cardinals are scary in that a breakout game is due. Will be interested to see what happens....

Not that it is a major element in my evaluating a game, but I do believe in momentum when it comes to pitching staffs. If you ever hear pitchers commenting on a staff that is on a role or that had a great season you will inevitably here them talk about the inner-competition within the staffs. When things are going good their is a definite oneupsmanship and commitment/responsibility to keep the good thing going. Starting pitchers are a team within the team. Not a huge element, but the players are human, and psychological elements do play subtle roles.

GL on the card today bro

[chound]

Didn't the Cubs beat SF with Cain on the mound Saturday @ Sf

[brahmabull117]

Didn't the Cubs beat SF with Cain on the mound Saturday @ Sf

no, they've lost 9 straight on the road



Anytime you see the Cubs facing a decent opponent, Fade fade fade fade and then fade some more

[NittanyLionsFan]

Lol this brahmabull guy is seriously the most clueless person ever

[chound]

Your right...I had played them with the +1.5 runline

[Love The Action]

huh? The astros were the same quality team as this last year, they started off the season with a similar road record and finished losing almost 71% of their road games


The cubs are going to finish with a similar road record as they have now, my guess is that they will lose about 68-72% of their road games


I'm telling you this as somebody who has watched the Cubs play for a very long time, this is the worst team in the league. They're bottom 5/10 in the league in starting pitching, relief work, offense and defense. Samardja could pitch a great game and lose 6-0 because of 2/3 errors and the bullpen allowed 3 runs in bottom of the 8th inning. Anybody who puts money on the Cubs simply has no respect for their money


I just don't know how you can say +120 is good value for a road game in which the road team is arguably the worst in the league (while the hometeam is very respectable)

You are assuming any of that has any affect on today's game. They are all separate and independent events.

Moreover, you completely glossed over my point respecting pricing and plus ev plays. Have you ever read a book on sports investing or do you think it all comes down to wins and losses?

[brahmabull117]

You are assuming any of that has any affect on today's game. They are all separate and independent events.

the fact that they have lost 75% of their road games, a number that will likely hold up all season, is of no consequence to you?


even if you want to claim that Samardja is a little better pitcher (which I don't buy, Samardja has overachieved this year, I've seen the guy pitch and he's nowhere near as good as his numbers) what about the atrocious cubs bullpen, atrocious cubs defense and nonexistant cubs offense?


Would it surprise you if Samardja doesn't allow a single earned run and loses 5-0 because of terrible defense and relief work?


As far as your point goes about pricing and plus EV plays. Are you talking about reverse money line movements again? or are you talking about beating the closer price? I am a big believer in beating the closer price but reverse money line plays mean absolutely nothing to me

[NittanyLionsFan]

Yes, if that happens it should be a surprise to anyone. It's not probable whatsoever. You clearly don't understand probability.

[brahmabull117]

It's not probable whatsoever

huh? The cubs are dead last in the NL in runs scored on the road (about 3 per game), #26th in the league in defensive efficiency and deadlast in the league in save percentage



Maybe Samardja wins today, I just don't know how he's gonna do it. Garza pitched a near perfect game on Saturday I believe and still lost because of terrible defense (Soriano gave up a ball that he should have caught that lead to the only 2 runs for San Fran)


Hell, Wood pitched a great game yesterday and got F*cked by the same things - bad bullpen, bad defense and no offense

[NittanyLionsFan]

Do you realize that you keep repeatedly bringing up stats that are literally 95-100% meaningless? Like seriously, do you realize that? And do you realize what meaningless means?

[NittanyLionsFan]

And what do you mean "huh?"? You say "huh?" when I say it isn't probable.

I said its not probably that Samardja allows 5 unearned runs and 0 earned runs. Even if we call it the combo of 3+ unearned runs and 1 or less earned run, the probability of that is well under 10%. That mean improbable. If you don't understand that...I'm sorry but you are just plain stupid.

[brahmabull117]

Do you realize that you keep repeatedly bringing up stats that are literally 95-100% meaningless? Like seriously, do you realize that? And do you realize what meaningless means?

Yea, it makes no difference how good your defense or your bullpen is in baseball


It's not like the cubs have lost 7 or 8 games as a result of poor bullpen and that 3 of the 4 runs allowed in their last 2 games have been a result of poor defense.

[Love The Action]

As far as your point goes about pricing and plus EV plays. Are you talking about reverse money line movements again? or are you talking about beating the closer price? I am a big believer in beating the closer price but reverse money line plays mean absolutely nothing to me

RLM is meaningless to me....almost as much as all the trends you mentioned. The only thing that matters is staying ahead of the market and getting good numbers which beat the efficiency of the closer. Try reading Conquering Risk, Sharp Sports Betting and books like that. You need to better understand the math and probabilities behind this business.

[brahmabull117]

RLM is meaningless to me....almost as much as all the trends you mentioned. The only thing that matters is staying ahead of the market and getting good numbers which beat the efficiency of the closer. Try reading Conquering Risk, Sharp Sports Betting and books like that. You need to better understand the match and probabilities behind this business.

so you don't believe in handicapping at all pretty much?



What about the fact that there are 3-4 teams in every sport every year that just destroy the market in terms of money made, ATS record, etc...? Do you not believe that it's possible to detect those teams early and make money off that all year long?


Look at the Phillies and Astros last year. It was very obvious from about late April/Early May that one team would be phenomenal and the other utterly atrocious. Both teams finished the way they started really (one up a huge number of units and one down a huge number of units). The cubs are giving you the exact same symptoms of the Astros last year and you don't believe that's of any significance?



Also, I have no problem at all with what you're saying in terms of beating the market. I think it's absolutely huge to beat the closer, I just don't think that can be everything

[aznbluff]

This is confusing me a little, or is this a free money spot? Just looking for a little outside input since my brain is incapable of functioning today after the weekend.

4 dependent events:

A to win is -171
B to win is +347
C to win is +689
D to win is +1608

Is this not free money to simply bet 171 to win 100 on A. Also 50 to win 173.5 on B.

What am I missing here. You have an edge on anything 18% or under by betting like this. C corresponds to around 12% and D is negligible at around 5%.

You semi-scoop on the most probable event (A winning) and you still have a theoretical edge on the least probable event (D winning).

We should be getting around +440 for P(C) U P(D) but it seems to me like we are getting a lot more than that? Is this just a bad line from the books?

[Donkeys2012]

And what do you mean "huh?"? You say "huh?" when I say it isn't probable.

I said its not probably that Samardja allows 5 unearned runs and 0 earned runs. Even if we call it the combo of 3+ unearned runs and 1 or less earned run, the probability of that is well under 10%. That mean improbable. If you don't understand that...I'm sorry but you are just plain stupid.

Get out of this thread you Fuckin Bum

[NittanyLionsFan]

Brahma,

Look man, we all know that you lose money betting on sports (if you even bet). We also know you REALLY care about being able to profitably bet sports. So maybe you should start listening to people with thoughtful and meaningful insight and try to actually learn what they're doing. Or you can just keep denying the fact that you do in fact lose money at this stuff and not change your ways. You are lying to yourself and you're lying to a bunch of other people that know you're lying and really don't care how your results are. They're people who don't know you, never will, and will never care to.

Just a little food for thought. Good luck to you buddy.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Get out of this thread you Fuckin Bum

Haha, good reply to my post that was 100% true and is impossible to argue with.

[CHAZ]

Brahmabull, LTA looks at his betting with more math and accounting involved then just stats. His equation says this is a + money play. Just because every day stats don't agree with it doesn't mean its wrong. Big overall picture of the season in general then just whats going on at the moment.

[brahmabull117]

And what do you mean "huh?"? You say "huh?" when I say it isn't probable.

I said its not probably that Samardja allows 5 unearned runs and 0 earned runs. Even if we call it the combo of 3+ unearned runs and 1 or less earned run, the probability of that is well under 10%. That mean improbable. If you don't understand that...I'm sorry but you are just plain stupid.

I was using that as an example. Of course that particular scenario is unlikely but Samardja pitching a great game and still losing due to bad defense and hitting is not unlikely at all. It's happened 4 or 5 times in the last 6 road games for the cubs alone

[underal]

since everyone is throwing in their opinion on the cubs here I will join in. I think there is real value in them right now against righties, but I am sitting out tonight because the giants are playing really solid tight ball. I am looking to tomorrow dempster against gallardo. I give them a 52% chance of winning that and expect the line to be +120 at least.

[Donkeys2012]

Im done with Garbage ass MLB for awhile. 1-1 ******* game in the 7th and 2 errors results in two runs then these shit ass bullpens come in and its home run ******* derby time. Not to mention the decisions these dumbass managers made with regard to pitching matchups was absurd.

[SlickRick1382]

Edit;

Let me not jinx it. I'll make my comment after the game...

I liked the Cubbies last night too LTA and glad you're on them.

[brahmabull117]

this is turning into a shootout, surprisingly, wow. Both pitchers struggling



Terrible defense by Soriano there on that second hit. Should have been out

[SlickRick1382]

this is turning into a shootout, surprisingly, wow. Both pitchers struggling



Terrible defense by Soriano there on that second hit. Should have been out

The fact that the Cubbies got out of the inning only allowing 1 run is huge. That was a big strikeout ....

[tonyp0387]

This games over fade last place teams not bet them

[brahmabull117]

This games over fade last place teams not bet them

I think this game is over if the cubs can't get a run in the 8th inning. Sergio Romo is nearly untouchable