LTA's MLB Plays

[tonyp0387]

what a stressfull lifestyle gotta start hitting the gym again to relieve this stress. My hair is turning grey as I type

[Love The Action]

LTA, I honest to god was not trying to bash your play. We're all here to help each other out and try to win money. I don't get some sort of joy when somebody here is wrong or doesn't make money and I'm very happy when I see somebody like Hawley or Acoochy hitting 70% on their spreadsheet. That's inspiring stuff


My point to you was that "regression to the mean" with the cubs here is just not a valid theory, because them losing 10 games in a row on the road and having an absolutely brutal record/road record....well that is their mean. That's the quality of talent on the team


Rest of the season, please don't ever play the cubs again. That team is beyond brutal and you would have to be a fool to not take advantage of their likely terrible record this year

I never said you were bashing. I get that you think the Cubs are crap. However, you still don't understand why I made that play. I don't care if a team loses 120 games. That still means they win 42. This play was not about regression to the mean, this play was about getting decent value at +124 for a significantly better pitcher than Vogelsong and a team that is statistically similar against right handed hitters. I use a math model based on advanced statistics to derive a fair line absent public perception. That tells me where the value lies and which way the line will move.

Bottom line is that I had a better chance to cash that play than the odds signified. As long as you make those plays when you spot them, you will win over the long term. Believe me, I understand the Cubs are dog shit. However, when dog shit has a better chance to win than the odds I am getting, I have to back the dog shit. When you consistently capture those few cents of value that the oddsmakers give you because of public perception, you will make money. Sometimes that requires backing teams like the Cubs. Today it didn't cash, but last week with Samardizja at home it did work. Because they are consistently undervalued, there is money to be made by backing them in select spots. You can't back them night in and night out, but bad teams can make you money if you know how to spot the value long term.

[Love The Action]

Lta if I were to bet you 600 plays ago you would of lost. Surely making all those plus plays you would be up so many units. You also won a six times play last week you forget . I hope you win your a talented guy . Its called gambling for a reason, SBR DOESNT PAY THE BILLS BY GIVING AWAY PLUS PLAYS.

1. I only have 250 plays this MLB season. However, at one point I was up +18x and hit a cold streak. That is the ups and downs of the season. I am confident that at the END of the season I will have a similar record as last season. Do you think my season should be measured by when I was up 18x or now when I am at 0x? To me, nothing matters until the last day of the season. Judge my record then.

2. This NBA season has been an admitted disappointment for me and I cannot make excuses. However, I was up over +20x going into the last month of the season and hit a cold streak. Because this was only a 60 game season, I did not have a full cycle to get back on the hot streak that would have seen my total units won rise back up. As far as the 6 game winner, that is more than cancelled out by the 6x loser last night because of overtime and the 4x loser I lost by 1 point in the previous round. In addition, as you very well know, we have suffered some incredibly bad beats this past season. But that's just part of the business. I am still up $3K in the NBA and I will do my best to get higher. Unfortunately, I am running out of time....

[Love The Action]

what a stressfull lifestyle gotta start hitting the gym again to relieve this stress. My hair is turning grey as I type

Life is about balance my friend. My philosophy is that you can enjoy yourself and do all the things you want, but you can't let it take over. Remember what is really important and don't forget priorities. Balance is the key to life....

[brahmabull117]

I never said you were bashing. I get that you think the Cubs are crap. However, you still don't understand why I made that play. I don't care if a team loses 120 games. That still means they win 42. This play was not about regression to the mean, this play was about getting decent value at +124 for a significantly better pitcher than Vogelsong and a team that is statistically similar against right handed hitters. I use a math model based on advanced statistics to derive a fair line absent public perception. That tells me where the value lies and which way the line will move.

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that



2)I understand that Vogelsong's advanced stats are not as good as Samardja, but did you not consider the terrible defense, relief work and offense of the cubs? Hell the cubs starting pitching was excellent in this series and they still got swept in 4 games. You just can't base a play on starting pitching alone IMO


3)The cubs stats against righties and lefties on the road is brutal though. I understand they have decent stats at home against RHP but they have been just awful against righties on the road and especially in this 10 game losing streak


4)I know you said you don't care about the 10 game losing streak, but do you not pay any attention to things like momentum and confidence? Teams on losing streaks tend to play with a big lack of confidence which is how you get nasty losing streaks like this

[Donkeys2012]

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that


2)I understand that Vogelsong's advanced stats are not as good as Samardja, but did you not consider the terrible defense, relief work and offense of the cubs? Hell the cubs starting pitching was excellent in this series and they still got swept in 4 games. You just can't base a play on starting pitching alone IMO


3)The cubs stats against righties and lefties on the road is brutal though. I understand they have decent stats at home against RHP but they have been just awful against righties on the road and especially in this 10 game losing streak


4)I know you said you don't care about the 10 game losing streak, but do you not pay any attention to things like momentum and confidence? Teams on losing streaks tend to play with a big lack of confidence which is how you get nasty losing streaks like this

You are a huge loser and need to get a life. Do you seriously just sit around all day typing this garbage. Find something better to do with your t
me nobody gives a crap what u say around here you are the 4th biggest joke on SBR.

[Catchn_Picks]

30 MLB teams times 162 games...before the playoffs! Name me another league that can compare to the number of games in a season.

I am not mathematician but I believe that it would be outside of the bounds of probability without both hot and cold streaks. The number of sheer games mandates it.

Meanwhile I am just pissed the Dodgers do everything but actually bring the runs home!

[tonyp0387]

theres never value on a last place team. there gonna be at least 25 units in the hole even if they win 60 games. Year after year the teams that win over 90 games are either close to even or are plus units and the teams in last place are almost aways negative big time . You would be up 100 units if you faded them every game the last 5 years. Were heading into the square season now in June and July when favorites rule. Just fade the bottom 2 teams in each division and make money.

[taxe91]

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that

no disrespect but i dont think many people respect what good value is in 'your view' because you play such heavily juiced favourites so often.

[Love The Action]

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that

This is not an insult, so don't take it that way. However, you have no idea about pricing baseball games as evidenced by that comment.

2)I understand that Vogelsong's advanced stats are not as good as Samardja, but did you not consider the terrible defense, relief work and offense of the cubs? Hell the cubs starting pitching was excellent in this series and they still got swept in 4 games. You just can't base a play on starting pitching alone IMO

I know that you cannot base a play off starting pitching alone. My model takes into account every available statistic including those for bullpens, defense, wind, ball parks, etc. I mention pitching in my short writeups because that is the most important factor and I don't have time to write 5 page writeups analyzing every facet of every play. If you bothered to look at the stats, you will see that the Cubs are actually rated above the Giants by a significant margin in most fielding categories (Cubs are about 14th overall and Giants 20th in my rankings). Now bullpen, you are correct. Cubs have the worst bullpen while Giants are top 5. However, all in all, the price I got on Samardizja today was worth the play.

3)The cubs stats against righties and lefties on the road is brutal though. I understand they have decent stats at home against RHP but they have been just awful against righties on the road and especially in this 10 game losing streak

You are weighting road/away splits way too heavily if that is more than a 5% factor in your capping.

4)I know you said you don't care about the 10 game losing streak, but do you not pay any attention to things like momentum and confidence? Teams on losing streaks tend to play with a big lack of confidence which is how you get nasty losing streaks like this

Again, the implied odds of the Cubs winning were better than the odds the books gave us. That is a play regardless of these "streaks." All streaks are made to be broken. If they had won today, we would not even be having this discussion. You have to play value where you find it. Sometimes that means ugly dogs. Just a reality of profitable sports investing. You can't play -200 favorites and expect to win long term.

[tonyp0387]

but if you play dogs your a sharp lol.

[EXhoosier10]

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that



2)I understand that Vogelsong's advanced stats are not as good as Samardja, but did you not consider the terrible defense, relief work and offense of the cubs? Hell the cubs starting pitching was excellent in this series and they still got swept in 4 games. You just can't base a play on starting pitching alone IMO


3)The cubs stats against righties and lefties on the road is brutal though. I understand they have decent stats at home against RHP but they have been just awful against righties on the road and especially in this 10 game losing streak


4)I know you said you don't care about the 10 game losing streak, but do you not pay any attention to things like momentum and confidence? Teams on losing streaks tend to play with a big lack of confidence which is how you get nasty losing streaks like this

In response to your assertions:
1) you're assuming that the cubs have an equal chance to win every ball game. To counterpoint that, do you believe that the Cubs will have the same record if they play 100 games against the Astros as they would if they played 100 games against the Cardinals? Another situation would be do the Cubs have an equal chance to win with Garza/Dempster pitching as they do with Volstad/Travis Wood/etc? There are clearly better situations than others for teams to win, which is why a line is set according to who is pitching in each game.

2) What defensive metrics are you using to compare the teams? UZR says the Cubs are better than the Giants defensively. If you want to use standard stats, Giants actually have the worst fielding% in the entire MLB. Defensive efficiency is definitely in the giants favor. Efficiency and errors definitely have flaws in them, so I'd say UZR is the far better choice to measure defensive performance; and that says that you are wrong again.

3) Have you adjusted for ballparks? Wrigley has historically been a hitters park (although didn't play like that last year and has been average so far this year). It shouldn't be surprising that the Cubs hit better at home than they do on the road. With regards to vs. R & vs. L, you're breaking an already smallish sample into an even smaller sample size, and basing your decision on a smaller subset with a lot more variance. You're better off using their season to date vs. Lefties than breaking it up to season to date vs lefties on the road.

4) After sweeping the padres, i'm sure they were not lacking momentum or confidence coming into this series. They have played 18 games since this 10 (now 11) game road losing streak started. I don't think players let games that occurred 3 weeks ago effect them mentally.

[Love The Action]

but if you play dogs your a sharp lol.

If you are responding to my comments, where do I say that? As you know, I play both favorites and dogs. As I mentioned earlier to you, balance is the key to life. Too much of anything will be man's downfall. I believe you need to make every play where you have a an edge, whether a favorite or dog.

[brahmabull117]

This is not an insult, so don't take it that way. However, you have no idea about pricing baseball games as evidenced by that comment.

All evidence points to the cubs likely losing about 66-70% of their road games this year. They've lost about 75-80% so far and there's absolutely no reason to believe they will be much better than that. This team has actually overachieved at certain positions (Dempster is not as good as his stats, Samardja's not as good as his stats, Lahair is not as good as his stats)


That means them facing an average team - a team with a .500 record has to be at least a + 200 or you're gonna lose money in most cases. The giants aren't an average team, they're 7 games over .500. How is a team that will likely lose 70% of their road games on the road playing a good team that is 7 games over .500 a good value at +120?

You are weighting road/away splits way too heavily if that is more than a 5% factor in your capping.

You're joking right? The brewers won 70% of their homes last year and about 48% of their road games


There are a big number of teams year in and year out that play much much much worse on the road than at home. The cubs are one of those teams


That 5% as a flat number is outrageously low. I agree it can be 5%, hell it can be 0% or even a negative number for many teams that play better on the road than at home, but a team that is 15 games under .500 on the road while only being 3 games under .500 at home can't be a negligible factor.

[tonyp0387]

no disrespect but i dont think many people respect what good value is in 'your view' because you play such heavily juiced favourites so often.

not u lta , It was this ignorant post. if u play plus 200 and lose I guess thats credibility.

[Catchn_Picks]

In response to your assertions:
1) you're assuming that the cubs have an equal chance to win every ball game. To counterpoint that, do you believe that the Cubs will have the same record if they play 100 games against the Astros as they would if they played 100 games against the Cardinals? Another situation would be do the Cubs have an equal chance to win with Garza/Dempster pitching as they do with Volstad/Travis Wood/etc? There are clearly better situations than others for teams to win, which is why a line is set according to who is pitching in each game.

2) What defensive metrics are you using to compare the teams? UZR says the Cubs are better than the Giants defensively. If you want to use standard stats, Giants actually have the worst fielding% in the entire MLB. Defensive efficiency is definitely in the giants favor. Efficiency and errors definitely have flaws in them, so I'd say UZR is the far better choice to measure defensive performance; and that says that you are wrong again.

3) Have you adjusted for ballparks? Wrigley has historically been a hitters park (although didn't play like that last year and has been average so far this year). It shouldn't be surprising that the Cubs hit better at home than they do on the road. With regards to vs. R & vs. L, you're breaking an already smallish sample into an even smaller sample size, and basing your decision on a smaller subset with a lot more variance. You're better off using their season to date vs. Lefties than breaking it up to season to date vs lefties on the road.

4) After sweeping the padres, i'm sure they were not lacking momentum or confidence coming into this series. They have played 18 games since this 10 (now 11) game road losing streak started. I don't think players let games that occurred 3 weeks ago effect them mentally.

Ah man LTA, you're taking the fun out of baseball. You make my brain hurt!

Meanwhile, if I could make the point that the Dodgers (my Dodgers, if I must be precise) just won at Philly. Dodger closer Jansen...is a beast.

Anytime you want to pick the Dodgers LTA, it is OK with me.

[brahmabull117]

In response to your assertions:
1) you're assuming that the cubs have an equal chance to win every ball game. To counterpoint that, do you believe that the Cubs will have the same record if they play 100 games against the Astros as they would if they played 100 games against the Cardinals? Another situation would be do the Cubs have an equal chance to win with Garza/Dempster pitching as they do with Volstad/Travis Wood/etc? There are clearly better situations than others for teams to win, which is why a line is set according to who is pitching in each game.

Okay agreed, but for example let's look at the past history of teams that are as bad as the cubs and what their road record was against +.500 teams on the road. The Astros of 2011, which had no less talent than the cubs of this year, lost something like 75-80% of road games against +.500 teams. Why does LTA not believe that the cubs will lose about that many this year and if he does believe that, then how in the world can +120 be a good line against an average team, much less a team that's 7 games over .500?



What system are you using where a team that is on pace for 108 losses has better than a 48% chance to win a road game against a pretty good team?

[EXhoosier10]

A system that uses more inputs than team win-loss records, that's for sure.

[brahmabull117]

A system that uses more inputs than team win-loss records, that's for sure.

the issue with these systems is that they assume any 1 run game is gonna be a coin flip and it just doesn't work that way


Even if the indicators are about equal in terms of starting pitching and offense, you have to account for the cub's terrible pen and lack of clutch hitting. They've had a terrible record in 1 run games this year and it will likely continue all season


Cubs are 6-14 in 1 run games this year BTW. Like I said - a system would say that 1 run games are a 50/50 thing and it's not true. The team with the superior intangibles (clutch hitting) and superior bullpen will those games at a higher rate than 50/50

[Catchn_Picks]

Hey gang...it starting to shape up to be a real good night!

[tonyp0387]

[QUOTE=EXhoosier10;14962016]A system that uses more inputs than team win-loss records, that's for sure.[/tQUOTE] these oddmakers play with are emotions cant you see that. how else are they able to give out cubs plus 120 give me a break SF had the value if they play this game 10 times SF would have to lose 5 times to lose money.

[taxe91]

but if you play dogs your a sharp lol.

not u lta , It was this ignorant post. if u play plus 200 and lose I guess thats credibility.

The only reason I know about brahma's bets is because they have lost. He's played Verlander and/or Kershaw in two spots I can remember where they lost. He's also been called out for deleting plays off his spreadsheet because his overall record on these favourites is in the negative.

Would you rather lose a unit on a +110 dog or laying -300 on a favourite?

[brahmabull117]

The only reason I know about brahma's bets is because they have lost. He's played Verlander and/or Kershaw in two spots I can remember where they lost. He's also been called out for deleting plays off his spreadsheet because his overall record on these favourites is in the negative.

Would you rather lose a unit on a +110 dog or laying -300 on a favourite?

I've made plenty of mistakes, I never denied that. Still I'd rather lay -130 with the giants than anything with the cubs

[daddyv]

1)If a team loses 120 games, that means they're losing about 75% of their games. Anything less than +300 in that case is terrible value. Similar thing here with the cubs, they're gonna lose a 100-108 games this year. Anything less than +200 is terrible value in my view because they will lose at least 65% of their road games and probably even more than that


2)I understand that Vogelsong's advanced stats are not as good as Samardja, but did you not consider the terrible defense, relief work and offense of the cubs? Hell the cubs starting pitching was excellent in this series and they still got swept in 4 games. You just can't base a play on starting pitching alone IMO


3)The cubs stats against righties and lefties on the road is brutal though. I understand they have decent stats at home against RHP but they have been just awful against righties on the road and especially in this 10 game losing streak


4)I know you said you don't care about the 10 game losing streak, but do you not pay any attention to things like momentum and confidence? Teams on losing streaks tend to play with a big lack of confidence which is how you get nasty losing streaks like this

yes but you dont bet every cubs game...u looks for plays that offer value n today was apparently one of those 'spots'. so you dont need +300 you just have to pick and choose where ur getting optimum value and i think thats what LTA has been talking about

[Fernburn74]

Who cares about cubs pick.

Great Dog Picks. LTA!!!!!!!

Keep up the great work!!!!!!!!!!!!

[daddyv]

haha i was out and just looked at the scores..gotta love it when the over cashes in the second....we are primed for a big day buddy barring and late innings debacles that had become a routine in may!!

[italianbandit]

Brahma - you need to re-evaluate your attitude. There is a lot to learn in this field.
"In the mind of a beginner, all things are possible...in the mind of an expert, only a few"~Suzuki

[SlickRick1382]

Looking like a nice potential 4-1 day on the night

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

Was just talking to a good friend saying Shields + money looks like a good bet. Even if it is against the Yankees. He's been one of the 5 most profitable pitchers to tail since start of the season (thusfar)

[guil0000]

Can Anyone comment on Pettitte's performance so far this season? Is he playing over his head? I was initially drawn to the Rays also but I'M hesitating because of Pettitte's nice advance numbers

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play#3

Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[brahmabull117]

Can Anyone comment on Pettitte's performance so far this season? Is he playing over his head? I was initially drawn to the Rays also but I'M hesitating because of Pettitte's nice advance numbers

I'm staying away from that play. Too many conflicting factors - Rays have played very well against the Yanks this year but the yanks are red hot



LT, you gonna fade the Phillies again tomorrow? I just don't see any reason at all why they should be laying - 180 to anybody considering their terrible home record

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play#3

Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

Any thoughts on the Tigers and Orioles for tomorrow LTA?



Edit:
So much for Tigers, didn't refresh before posting.