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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #8156
    Originally posted by hondo5
    No the games just over. LTA does a poor job of accounting for momentum but for some reason talks about it in his post. His over/under bets are pretty much a joke.
    Originally posted by hondo5
    I call it the LTA joke. He throws trash bets on there. Goes 2-3.Then gets on and bitches about the bullpen, or the bottom of the order. Apparently this idiot doesnt account for things like that in all his advance math and bookreading.


    Thanks for the good karma Hondo....
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #8157
      Originally posted by SlickRick1382
      Any thoughts on the Tigers and Orioles for tomorrow LTA?



      Edit:
      So much for Tigers, didn't refresh before posting.
      I am playing the Tigers....see above.

      More work to do on the other game. GL
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #8158
        MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/4/2012 Recap

        4 - 1 = +4.2x


        MLB 2012 Regular Season

        135 - 126 - 17 = +3.67x

        Good luck on Monday.
        Comment
        • pacocn
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-05-10
          • 12934

          #8159
          Lta, great night my friend
          keep it going.
          Comment
          • pacocn
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-05-10
            • 12934

            #8160
            Lta, keep laying the jokes on us
            Comment
            • pacocn
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-05-10
              • 12934

              #8161
              I will laugh all the way to the bank ...............
              Comment
              • taxe91
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-16-12
                • 610

                #8162
                Originally posted by guil0000
                Can Anyone comment on Pettitte's performance so far this season? Is he playing over his head? I was initially drawn to the Rays also but I'M hesitating because of Pettitte's nice advance numbers
                Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.
                Comment
                • guil0000
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-18-11
                  • 472

                  #8163
                  Originally posted by taxe91
                  Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.
                  Thanks for the good reply. Continued success!
                  Comment
                  • brahmabull117
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 8622

                    #8164
                    Originally posted by taxe91
                    Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.

                    It's scary fading the yanks right now with how hot that offense is. They even scored 5 runs on sunday off Verlander
                    Comment
                    • pacocn
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-05-10
                      • 12934

                      #8165
                      Lta, i think there is some value with Dempster
                      tomorrow at +143(5dimes) Many of the Cubies
                      have hit Gallardo well. Although he has looked better
                      his last few outings, it seems that he is overvalued here.
                      Comment
                      • SlickRick1382
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-15-11
                        • 3838

                        #8166
                        Originally posted by brahmabull117
                        It's scary fading the yanks right now with how hot that offense is. They even scored 5 runs on sunday off Verlander
                        You know the saying. Scared money don't make money.

                        Tampa's offense has been playing a lot better than the Tigers tho. They've been struggling to put up runs. Also Hasn't NYY always hit Verlander pretty well in the past?
                        Comment
                        • brahmabull117
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 8622

                          #8167
                          Originally posted by SlickRick1382
                          You know the saying. Scared money don't make money.

                          Tampa's offense has been playing a lot better than the Tigers tho. They've been struggling to put up runs. Also Hasn't NYY always hit Verlander pretty well in the past?

                          no, Verlander had dominant numbers against the Yankees before that start. Yanks have hit James Shields hard though (0-4 last 4 starts with 4.00 era)


                          Just too many conflicting factors for me
                          Comment
                          • HarbaughTilting
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 02-29-12
                            • 13

                            #8168
                            I really like the Nationals pick. I'm considering playing this more aggressively with -2 RL.

                            I also think it's time to roll with the Orioles once again. They owe us.
                            What do you think about backing Timmy at -107?
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #8169
                              Originally posted by brahmabull117
                              no, Verlander had dominant numbers against the Yankees before that start. Yanks have hit James Shields hard though (0-4 last 4 starts with 4.00 era)


                              Just too many conflicting factors for me
                              Please stop citing to ERA in my thread. It is a meaningless statistic and I dont want beginners to be confused into thinking it matters. Shields has pitched well against this Yankee lineup limiting them to a .698 OPS and BAA under .240. The only Yankees hitting above .200 against Shields are Jeter, Cano and Arod.
                              Comment
                              • ebbearsfb1
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 12-07-08
                                • 18815

                                #8170
                                Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... or is a betterer stat era + (adjusted ball park era) where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday
                                Last edited by ebbearsfb1; 06-05-12, 08:04 AM.
                                Comment
                                • taxe91
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-16-12
                                  • 610

                                  #8171
                                  Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                  Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday
                                  If you go to fangraphs you'll find SIERA along with a lot of other good advanced stats:

                                  e.g. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...059&position=P if you scroll down to the 'Batted Ball' category you will find Shields' SIERA. enjoy
                                  Comment
                                  • ebbearsfb1
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-07-08
                                    • 18815

                                    #8172
                                    Thanks gonnna check it out
                                    Comment
                                    • guil0000
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 01-18-11
                                      • 472

                                      #8173
                                      I wouldn't say meaningless as I use it when capping to know public perception compared to true talent (SIERA, xFIP, etc).
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #8174
                                        Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                        Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... or is a betterer stat era + (adjusted ball park era) where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday
                                        ERA is a primitive statistic that does not account for all the variables that go into a pitchers results such as defense. Defense independent stats such as SIERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. have been shown to be an accurate predictor of future results because they only take into account the pitcher and eliminate everything else from the equation. Read the book Moneyball and go through the fangraps glossary and website.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #8175
                                          Originally posted by guil0000
                                          I wouldn't say meaningless as I use it when capping to know public perception compared to true talent (SIERA, xFIP, etc).
                                          Correct....but it's meaningless as used in the example provided by the rock...
                                          Comment
                                          • ebbearsfb1
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-07-08
                                            • 18815

                                            #8176
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            Correct....but it's meaningless as used in the example provided by the rock...
                                            Haha thanks for the info... and thanks for the laugh lol
                                            Comment
                                            • pacocn
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 07-05-10
                                              • 12934

                                              #8177
                                              Lta, speaking of advanced pitching stats, it looks as
                                              though Timmy's numbers pale in comaprison to last year.
                                              Siera,Fip, XFip, etc. What are your feelings of backing Bass
                                              whose sample size is small, but has better advanced numbers
                                              than Timmy?
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #8178
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

                                                Play #1

                                                Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

                                                Play #2

                                                Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

                                                Play#3

                                                Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

                                                Play #4

                                                Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

                                                Play #5

                                                Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)


                                                Play #6

                                                Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                                Good luck.
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #8179
                                                  Originally posted by pacocn
                                                  Lta, speaking of advanced pitching stats, it looks as
                                                  though Timmy's numbers pale in comaprison to last year.
                                                  Siera,Fip, XFip, etc. What are your feelings of backing Bass
                                                  whose sample size is small, but has better advanced numbers
                                                  than Timmy?
                                                  They are not up to Timmy's standards but still very good. I lean under but am waiting for a better price. GL buddy.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ebbearsfb1
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-07-08
                                                    • 18815

                                                    #8180
                                                    Think I'm gonna use siera for my next 100 plays.. thanks lta.. see how that plays out..
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #8181
                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                      MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

                                                      Play #1

                                                      Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Play #2

                                                      Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Play#3

                                                      Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Play #4

                                                      Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Play #5

                                                      Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Play #6

                                                      Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                                      Play #7

                                                      Dodgers/Phillies under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)


                                                      Good luck.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Madison
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-16-11
                                                        • 6442

                                                        #8182
                                                        No day games and 7 plays already and it's not even noon. Must of had your wheaties this morning. GL.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • CHAZ
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-09-09
                                                          • 4978

                                                          #8183
                                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                          Play#3
                                                          Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)
                                                          I know you're a pretty busy guy LTA, but I'd like to hear your opinion on this game. I liked the UNDER for a good size, but I definitely respect your opinion. Who knows maybe it could save me some money.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #8184
                                                            Crazy movement on that reds/pirates total. That's an interesting one considering both pitchers just faced these lineups last week...,
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #8185
                                                              Originally posted by CHAZ
                                                              I know you're a pretty busy guy LTA, but I'd like to hear your opinion on this game. I liked the UNDER for a good size, but I definitely respect your opinion. Who knows maybe it could save me some money.
                                                              I project both offenses to continue their recent improvement and although Beavan has a nice history against the angels, his overall numbers are poor putting him toward the bottom of my SP power rankings. Meanwhile, Richards will be starting for the first time this season and has not performed particularly well in his previous 15 innings of MLB action. Not a big sample, but he actually faced the mariners last season so the majority mariner hitters will have some familiarity with him. I expect a higher scoring game tonight. GL buddy.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #8186
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

                                                                Play #1

                                                                Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play #2

                                                                Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play#3

                                                                Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play #4

                                                                Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play #5

                                                                Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play #6

                                                                Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Play #7

                                                                Dodgers/Phillies under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Play #8

                                                                Giants/Padres under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Good luck.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Vasco
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 03-16-12
                                                                  • 315

                                                                  #8187
                                                                  Looks like I missed 7 with the Dodgers/Phillies. I may have to pass at 6.5. Thinking of taking a gamble with under 3.5 first 5. Usually don't play first 5, but thinking that may be better value than 6.5 full game. Big card today let's get on a roll!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jlee
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 07-22-11
                                                                    • 375

                                                                    #8188
                                                                    3 dogs that I like today are:

                                                                    Seattle over LAA
                                                                    Cleveland over Tigers
                                                                    Braves over Marlins

                                                                    edit: Really like the OVER on the MIN/KC game. Liriano is just horrible, facing a team that has strong numbers from the right side. Chen faced the twins earlier, allowed 6 runs in 2 innings, and he's facing a hot hitting twins team.
                                                                    Last edited by jlee; 06-05-12, 01:04 PM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jlee
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 07-22-11
                                                                      • 375

                                                                      #8189
                                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                      Crazy movement on that reds/pirates total. That's an interesting one considering both pitchers just faced these lineups last week...,
                                                                      starting lineup for the pirates released: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

                                                                      thoughts?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #8190
                                                                        Originally posted by jlee
                                                                        starting lineup for the pirates released: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

                                                                        thoughts?
                                                                        I will pass on that game. GL
                                                                        Comment
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