No the games just over. LTA does a poor job of accounting for momentum but for some reason talks about it in his post. His over/under bets are pretty much a joke.
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This game's over. The cubs are now 6-21 on the road and down about $1,700 on the season
Anybody who bets on this team the rest of the season deserves to go brokeComment -
I call it the LTA joke. He throws trash bets on there. Goes 2-3.Then gets on and bitches about the bullpen, or the bottom of the order. Apparently this idiot doesnt account for things like that in all his advance math and bookreading.Comment -
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He always bets teams that just lost the day before its the due theory . 600 ,plays NBA and mlb no profit . Still better then me or 99 ,percent thoughComment -
Yeah it was such a HORRIBLE PLAY ......
Cubs lost 2-3. Clearly they had no chance to win the game and weren't even in it .....
Get a clue ...Comment -
I think you guys are missing the point.
The only good bet based on the market was my +135 CHC overnight bet. People need to pay attention as to when LTA is posting his play and bet accordingly. His ATL +127 and CHC +124 plays 3 minutes before a game starts are not high value plays. I'm suprised he does not play them at 0.5x units given how mature the market is at that point.Comment -
I said I cant do better , I am the 99 percent and so are you. Your down money because you dont get the same line as lta . That 5 to 10 cents adds upComment -
Wow you guys are halarious...i wanna see any of you clowns show a better track record over an extended period of time. Heres any idea...if you dont like it, gtfo.
Check your pants...no your dik didnt get any bigger because you trolled someone after a loss, your still the same prick dik'd fuk
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You clearly aren't familiar with the cubs, are you?
This team's bad bullpen, awful defense and lack of clutch hitting means certain death in 1 run games. Game went exactly to plan really - Samardja pitches ok, bullpen gives up game, bad defense, bad clutch hitting, Cubs are now 6-21 on the road for a reasonComment -
I don't see a point in some people laughing out after someone's loss. LTA never forces people to follow his picks. He never guarantees his plays. All he does is to provide us his predictions of the games and write-ups. He does no harm to us. And some people make fun of him just right after the game? That's not fair or nice.Comment -
He is the best I ever seen at predicting line movement. No trying to hate on him. Just shows how hard this is 600 plays and even is very good. he will start winning sooner or later .Comment -
Excellent point Taco. You are absolutely right. Just because LTA puts up a play on the overnight does not mean it should be a play right up to game time if the line moves that much. +120 for a poor road team even with a very good pitcher is a questionable play.
I made the play early and got a good line and then added when all of the love came out for the Cubbies. That second play was a mistake.
Lesson noted...lesson learned.
BOLComment -
GL LTA,
Solid capper...Comment -
stop bashing this dude, he provides solid write ups and beats the closing number consistently, was up like 40 units last season and killed the postseason...
Don't listen to clowns like brahma, lta....
Why do poster's consistently try to run good cappers off this site..Comment -
lol anyone else think hondo and brahma are the same person?Comment -
Fair enough. I agree in part and disagree in part. The idea of betting after a huge market move is a recipe for disaster and not something in which I partake. However, on those two plays that you mention, a huge market move did not occur.
First, if you are going to make a claim that "the only good bet" was your Cubs wager at +135, then you should have some independently verifiable citation as to your making that play at +135. Not to say you didn't make that wager, but this is not the first time I have seen you claim a great number without any back up. Consequently, we don't really know whether in fact those wagers were made or if you are just "Monday morning quarterbacking."
I would ask where you made that wager considering Pinny opened at +138 yesterday afternoon at 1:20 pm EST, moved to +132 at 1:28 pm, then +131 at 1:53 pm and +128 at 5pm. Ever since it moved to +128, it never got better than that number. Therefore, if you bet +135 in that 8 minute window, that was a great bet. However, I personally doubt you decided to play within 8 minutes of an afternoon opener. Considering it never hit more than +129 at 5D or Matchbook or any other reduced juice shop, I am unsure where you got +135. Consequently, unless you bet with a local, I have no idea where you locked up +135. Moreover, considering that 5D never had better than +129 on the Cubs and I bet it at +124, then it was not that bad of a wager. Had I bet it at +115, that is a different story but not at +124 when Pinny closed at +123.
Secondly, as to your other comment about the Braves play, I disagree. I do not have opening numbers available to me until the night before the next day's games when all west coast games have started. This is usually around 11 pm EST. At that time, the Braves play was below +127. It was not until near the start of that game that I was able to get such a great number. Considering that Pinny opened that game at +131 and never got higher, and considering I never had access to a better number than +127, I got the best possible number on that play that I had access to. Pinny closed at +127 and the best number available all day at any shop was +131, therefore I could argue that was a high value play because my model had it set at +120 (if I remember correctly). Consequently, assuming my model is accurate -- which it has proven over 1,000's of plays nothwithstanding my recent cold run -- that was a solid value play despite it closing at the same number as Pinny.
All in all, I think you are a very informed poster. However, I think the examples you used above to illustrate your point are poor. Neither one of those were wagers low value wagers considering that 99.9% of the market never had access to the best available prices.Last edited by Love The Action; 06-04-12, 07:39 PM.Comment -
Funny, you only make these posts when I am running cold. When I am running hot, you post the opposite. I know you are bitter about the recent losses, but hang in there it will get better. I had an unusual NBA season and tough last month of the MLB season, but I believe in my documented track record which exceeds 1,000 plays more than I worry about my last month.
Try not to be so bitter though. It really makes yourself come off with no credibility. You just seem like a troll/hater. If you have an intelligent argument to provide, I am all ears. Otherwise, I will simply have to ignore your ignorant comments in the future. They add no value.Comment -
Now you know that I don't wager based on the "due" theory. Come on Tony....
However, if I mention regression to the mean as part of a play, then I guess you can interpret it as such. Nevertheless, the due theory is not part of my model or my reasoning.
As to the profit, I am currently up $3K in NBA despite yesterday's tough loss. Say what you want, had we not seen overtime, I would be up over +17x right now in NBA.
With respect to MLB profit, I am confident I will hit between 53% and 55% on the season with over 20x in profit by October. There is plenty of time and I don't doubt my abilities for a second.
I know you too are frustrated about the recent cold streak, but the claims you make above are simply untrue. Good luck moving forward TP.Last edited by Love The Action; 06-04-12, 07:51 PM.Comment -
After reading my post again I must admit it came off kinda douchy as in "Hey look at me I'm better at finding value". I apologize for that.
I just think its fair to warn less educated followers that a 1x play 10 mins before a game starts usually does not have the same value as an overnight play (all 3 of ur overnight side plays did well today).
The +135 was at the Greek:
Jun 3 12:32pm Baseball - Loss 1000.00 to win 1350.00 -1000.00 1. Baseball - Chicago Cubs - moneyline (+135)
for the entire game held on Jun 4 at 2:45pm [loss]
J Samardzija -R must start and R Vogelsong -R must start for actionComment -
Thanks LKid...I hope all is well with you. I don't see you around as much this MLB season.
Don't worry about the criticism...that stuff does not affect me. It just comes with the territory. When you are winning, everyone loves you and when you are losing everyone hates you and knows how to do it better. That's just the nature of websites like SBR.
Thanks for the support though and good luck on your plays
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No worries. Good job jumping on that in the afternoon. Moreover, I agree with your basic premise but think that your examples were a poor illustration of the lesson you were trying to impart.
I need to get access to earlier openers. Like I said, I can't bet tomorrow's games until tonight's games all start. That means I miss the early afternoon value. However, usually it does not make as much of a difference like it did in today's Cubs games. I still thought it was a decent play at +124 though, considering I never had access to the +130's.
Good luck on the rest of your plays.Comment -
In the past you give Kershaw 3 runs and that's as close to an automatic win as you can get. Tough to see him almost laboring through after getting some run support early ...Comment -
It must really hurt when people try and bad mouth people only to receive a well constructed, intelligent, informative, supported response.
Its easy to write crap like "You suck"...It’s certainly much harder to respond to someone who doesn’t take the bait and calmly replies with educated legitimacy.
LTA - I have read many, many of your posts in a number of forums and I must say, it’s quite enjoyable reading your logic with supporting facts as opposed to people who jump on and just trash talk.
Sure, I realize this is an internet forum and people don’t know anyone so they can be keyword heroes, but you rarely lose your cool and respond in kind.
I can assure you (And I am sure you know it anyway) that logic and common sense will always prevail over those who just run off at the mouth. People like that can’t stand you responding this way because going by the way they communicate, they don’t have the intellect to reply with the same mannerism.
I am sure these same people will jump on and can me, I fully expect that. I am no LTA groupie, I don’t tail every play so I have no allegiance to anyone. I do however appreciate reading comments that are based around a little more foundation than "You are sh@t, your picks are crap".
Keep up the good work, win or lose with your plays, you show a bit of class....and to that, I thank you.Comment -
LTA, I honest to god was not trying to bash your play. We're all here to help each other out and try to win money. I don't get some sort of joy when somebody here is wrong or doesn't make money and I'm very happy when I see somebody like Hawley or Acoochy hitting 70% on their spreadsheet. That's inspiring stuff
My point to you was that "regression to the mean" with the cubs here is just not a valid theory, because them losing 10 games in a row on the road and having an absolutely brutal record/road record....well that is their mean. That's the quality of talent on the team
Rest of the season, please don't ever play the cubs again. That team is beyond brutal and you would have to be a fool to not take advantage of their likely terrible record this yearComment -
Lta if I were to bet you 600 plays ago you would of lost. Surely making all those plus plays you would be up so many units. You also won a six times play last week you forget . I hope you win your a talented guy . Its called gambling for a reason, SBR DOESNT PAY THE BILLS BY GIVING AWAY PLUS PLAYS.Comment
