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down to -128 now at Pinny...
BTW, the TAM-1 is now a hair better at -107...but that's the "off the shelf" line...i "rolled my own" and got -103.68...3.22 points that would otherwise be donated to Pinny as a hidden "service fee" for the convenience of the -1 line...that's more than a 3% better line for taking a few seconds and doing it myselfLast edited by fitguy67; 05-29-12, 04:07 AM.Comment -
GL on your big play today LTA!
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GL on the Os play...my biggest play this season for 3U, its good to see we beat the closing line +122 now n going down...just hope it cashes!!!Comment -
Romero , 21 BB in his last 23 innings (4 games). GLComment -
LTA, how are you sir? if you were leaning on the pads and cubs today who would you lean on more, the pads have stults on the mound and the cubbies have Samardzija?Comment -
or the Over under at 10 and being juiced at -120 some other spots have it at 10.5 on the cubs gameComment -
Anyone considering a play on 1st 5 innings if they like the Under?Comment -
Went out on a limb and played total Runs U6 for 1st 5 and No Runs 1st. We'll see how much I lose shortly xDComment -
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What is going on with pitchers killing us with their poor fielding. Matt Garza has killed two of our unders with throwing errors to first base and now tonight Arrieta cost us a run with an error. It's infinitely more difficult to win when you are giving out free runs. Make the earn it damnit.Comment -
Yeah, but I have not heard that there is any specific reason for the high scoring like the wind tunnel effect at Arlington or whatnot. To me, that's a number that will even out as more games are played when the roof is closed. In any event, we will need at least 2 - 3 seasons worth of games with the roof closed to draw any meaningful conclusions. GLComment -
at 4:50am/EST when i hit it and a few mins before i posted...ML=-152, RL=+143, available -1RL=-107
rolling your own (risking $100 for example) involves:
ML (-152)==> risk 60.32 to win 39.68
RL (+143)==>risk 39.68 to win 56.75
Combined==>risk 100 to win 96.43 (pushing if TAM wins by 1 run)
equivalent to -103.70 to win 100
aka. -103.70
which is 3.30 points better than the "off the shelf" (what I now consider "square") -107 posted at the same time that I reported in my post...that's 3.1% less chalk laid on the identical play at the identical book at the identical time with the identical ML and RL's on the board.
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But you're right, for the example you site...ML=-152 and RL=+140...the "true" -1RL odds (ie. that are available if you take the trouble to do it yourself) is a bit worse than that...as you know, it's exactly -105 (ML=-60.32/+39.68.....RL=-39.68/+55.56===>-100/+95.24==>-105/+100)
...and at this combination, the -1RL available at Pinny (and I assume at most/all other books that offer the convenience) at the same time would have to be AT LEAST two points worse than that..cuz it was already -107 in my earlier example...so it would have adjusted to -108/-109 to make up for the lower RL in this case...in order to maintain their characteristic yet-little-known "surcharge" over the true -1RL price
my point (which I've beaten to death by now!!!) was that the only way to get the true mathematical (where "RL-win finances the ML-risk") -1RL is to do it yourself...otherwise you're being unwittingly "taxed" 2 or more points for placing your bet the easy way
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sorry i didn't state the ML and RL quotes that went along with the TAM-1, -107 when i reported it earlier today...Last edited by fitguy67; 05-29-12, 07:59 PM.Comment -
arrieta blowing it all around.poor fielding,poor pitching.baltimore has made 3 errors all ready.5-1.still early hopefuuly the o's bats will wake upComment -
Sucks....tough to predict three errors in one game. The Orioles are middle of the pack in most field stats, so there's no reason to expect three farging errors. Very frustrating. No regrets about the play, but definitely a frustrating way to lose if indeed they do not explode. Good luck.Comment -
Baltimore tonight was the underdog play of the day among serious, credible cappers. They caught fire last night, bottomed out mid day and came a bit back up. But they were on a lot of lists of people I respect.
Sometimes "fashionable" plays get a bit scary for whatever reason.
I think you released this before everyone last night LTA, but I kept cringing when I saw so many others piling on. Romero at home should have been a steam play and Balt should have been a sharp.
4 runs down is not insurmountable tho. Especially when you consider the bullpen meltdowns we've seen this year.Comment -
ah well baltimore play is pretty much finished now...still could be a break even day if the other two hitComment -
anyone see all these "questionable" calls too....I saw 2 questionable strikeouts, one of em wasnt even questionable it was obviously not a check swing by andino at his 2nd at bat, yet home plate ump called out without even checking.....and then i saw rediculous walk in the 3rd i think it was yunel escobar right before lawrie knocked in the 2.....
I turned game off but then I saw wieters got ejected? anyone see why? was he argueing a legit bad call?Comment -
Please, give me enough credit to know the difference between touts and cappers with solid records. I would never breach your thread with names of other posters. That would be silly and demeaning. I respectfully told you that I saw, rather unusually, that Baltimore was a live dog among others that I respect. Either I am lying or telling the truth based upon my review only. It could be different for others. The web is obviously big.
I also told you that these postings appeared long after you posted Balt as a 3U play, so you did not get the idea that I would ever credit you with following anyone, but rather being ahead of the curve among those that I respect.
As far as Toronto as a public play:
According to SBR (5D), Balt opened as +132, bottomed at 10:13 am at +115 and closed as +124.
Toronto opened at -142, bottomed at 10:13 at -125 and came back to -134.
This does not qualify as a public play imo.
The overall intent of my comment was to express surprise that Toronto did not pick up steam and Balt closed well below their opening number. Judging by your write-up on the game, I would have thought that you would have agreed.
No insult or mean-spirited comment was ever intended. That is not my style.
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I think we got our signals crossed bud....No worries...I was just wondering who else was on Balty that's all. Some people check all the boards like the tout boards and what not, I was just wondering if that "Lang" guy was on Balty.
As far as a "public" play, I generally define that as one where 60% of all wagers is one one side. In this case, Toronto was around 65% or more at SI, SSpy, Score/Odds, etc.
If you are going to look at line movement, forget about 5D and just follow Pinny. That's the market that really matters and 5D basically mirrors their moves.
Good luck buddy...we're going to need it.Comment -
cordero warming up! we have a chance!Comment -
Thanks LTA, I did not know the public percentages, I just followed the line move. So, truthfully I just had only a part of the story.
Overall tho, it is a very strong dog play that went against the grain of the public perceptions which is required to win over time.
Win or lose, I loved the contrarian play.
Mia under looks good right now. We are overdue on the unders.
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arrieta always screws me over..
piece of shyt, hes garbage, wont touch his games rest of the yearComment
