LTA's MLB Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Redscot
    SBR MVP
    • 05-16-11
    • 2571

    #7456
    Cards pen let us down, what's up with scrabble (rzypensjkimajiga) this year? Perhaps it will provide an opportunity to win by 2!

    Wow , Giants too, lets hope for the best .
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #7457
      Originally posted by Redscot
      Cards pen let us down, what's up with scrabble (rzypensjkimajiga) this year? Perhaps it will provide an opportunity to win by 2!

      Wow , Giants too, lets hope for the best .
      First the cards, and the error by Crawford which allowed Braun to go deep.
      Comment
      • Redscot
        SBR MVP
        • 05-16-11
        • 2571

        #7458
        Originally posted by Love The Action
        First the cards, and the error by Crawford which allowed Braun to go deep.
        And Houston pushed one over, Oak threatening.....time to step away for a minute, wow how the tide can change in the blink of an eye.
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #7459
          Originally posted by Redscot
          And Houston pushed one over, Oak threatening.....time to step away for a minute, wow how the tide can change in the blink of an eye.
          Crawford burying us in the Giants game. First the error and then he strikes out with the winning run at 2b in the 9th.
          Comment
          • Redscot
            SBR MVP
            • 05-16-11
            • 2571

            #7460
            Come on Angels, time to put a few on the board here. Good lord, what is up with this team .
            Comment
            • SlickRick1382
              SBR MVP
              • 10-15-11
              • 3838

              #7461
              Giants come through but this Angels team is atrocious. They can't put any type of runs on the board...
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #7462
                MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012 Recap

                3 - 2 - 2 = +1.4x


                MLB 2012 Regular Season

                98 - 95 - 14 = -0.15x

                Just gotta grind. Good luck.
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #7463
                  MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

                  Play #1

                  Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

                  I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.
                  Last edited by Love The Action; 05-22-12, 12:33 AM.
                  Comment
                  • bluevase
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 05-08-12
                    • 25

                    #7464
                    to +115 is good value to me
                    mets +110
                    atl -119

                    and I fade your rockies and taking mia -140. Marlins 10-7 at home vs. rockies 6-12 away. Either you win or I win with this one.

                    Best of luck to us all and woot to LTA for sharing.
                    Comment
                    • pacocn
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-05-10
                      • 12934

                      #7465
                      Lta, spot on with Rockies i was all over that 10 cents
                      of value as soon as the line opened up
                      Comment
                      • Redscot
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-16-11
                        • 2571

                        #7466
                        LTA, you torn between whether to back Washington or the under in Philly tonight?

                        Hochevar is probably just what the Dr. ordered for those Yankees bats, but that price is too steep.

                        Looking forward to the rest of your card my man .

                        P.S. nice day yesterday, was close to a very big day too. Garza didn't show up, unusual for him to get shelled like that, game almost held on anyway. The Angels, I am speechless, Milone is a quality arm, but they should have been able to scratch at least 3 runs off the A's.
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #7467
                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                          MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

                          Play #1

                          Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

                          I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

                          Play # 2

                          Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)


                          My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #7468
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

                            Play #1

                            Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

                            I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

                            Play # 2

                            Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)


                            My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


                            Play #3

                            Rangers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)


                            Rangers have a sizable advantage in all three phases of the game and the advanced splits do not show that Noesi is better at home like his ERA splits. The price has dropped enough to make this play worthwhile and I think the worst we do is a push. I have the rangers set at -171 on the ml so I will take a shot on the -1RL for 1x and avoid most of the juice. Good luck.
                            Comment
                            • Les_Nuts
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-01-12
                              • 931

                              #7469
                              Liking the over 9 in Zona tonight. Weather is gonna be real hot in chase field, bats will be dry and hard, balls will be light, roof is open. I think both teams explode tonight, especially the Dbacks against Harang
                              Comment
                              • CappinTerp
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-26-09
                                • 9650

                                #7470
                                This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l
                                Comment
                                • riffraff24
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-20-11
                                  • 7234

                                  #7471
                                  Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                  This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l
                                  Texas lost big yesterday. So not sure what them not winning b2b means here?
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #7472
                                    Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                    This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l
                                    Good luck buddy.

                                    However, your points are unpersuasive:

                                    1. Texas lost last night so I dont understand why them not winning two nights in a row in the last couple weeks has any significance in this game. Even if they won, that two week trend would not matter to me because the sample size is insignificant.

                                    2. Noesi is bad. I don't think he is underrated in the least. He has a -.1 WAR, an FIP over 5, a tERA, xFIP and SIERA above 4.8, he does not strike people out or miss bats with his meager 5.6 k/9 and 14% k% plus he throws way too many fly balls and line drives as evidenced by his poor 0.75 GB/FB.

                                    3. Noesi has gotten beaten up by Texas in the past who are hitting .368 with a crazy 1.237 OPS against him.

                                    Anything can happen, but I suspect Texas wins today. Why do you think Noesi is underrated?
                                    Comment
                                    • bleedtoledo
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 08-29-10
                                      • 513

                                      #7473
                                      I'm guessing Cappin has no idea what those stats you threw at him even mean! Texas bounces back today.
                                      Comment
                                      • dredmahawkus
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-26-09
                                        • 1803

                                        #7474
                                        Best team vs one of the worst teams losing 2 in a row? possible but not likely!
                                        Comment
                                        • CappinTerp
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 9650

                                          #7475
                                          Originally posted by bleedtoledo
                                          I'm guessing Cappin has no idea what those stats you threw at him even mean! Texas bounces back today.
                                          Hey buddy I suck at betting baseball and know nothing about it.!! But I do know one thing about cappin and that is that most of the time too much data is a bad thing.! If it was not for fantasy baseball a lot of these stats would not be around. You are a better man than me if you can power weight all this info. and make $ betting baseball in the long run.!.................gl
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #7476
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

                                            Play #1

                                            Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

                                            I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

                                            Play # 2

                                            Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)


                                            My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                            Play #3

                                            Rangers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)


                                            Rangers have a sizable advantage in all three phases of the game and the advanced splits do not show that Noesi is better at home like his ERA splits. The price has dropped enough to make this play worthwhile and I think the worst we do is a push. I have the rangers set at -171 on the ml so I will take a shot on the -1RL for 1x and avoid most of the juice. Good luck.


                                            Play #4

                                            Angels -1RL (-104) 1x (Locked)


                                            I expect a bounce back for Wilson against a team that struggles against lefties as bad as they do. Thankfully, the angels will be facing the righty Godfrey who will have unfamiliarity as an advantage but that is about all. At some point, the Angela will hit and with them facing a mediocre righty I think that point is tonight. I am rolling with the angels on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

                                            Play #5

                                            Royals/Yankees over (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)


                                            Although I think both Hughes and Hochevar are candidates to improve as the season progresses thereby providing us some value, in this game I think both guys struggle a bit. The Yanks have not been hitting but are familiar with Hochevar and have hit him hard. The royals are equally familiar with Hughes and are a much better hitting team against righties. The ump is Wegner with his low strike rate and the wind is blowing out softly to right with possible rain. With the Yankee bullpen a bit thin at the moment, that can only help. I have this game set at 10.6 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                                            Comment
                                            • chound
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 05-27-10
                                              • 158

                                              #7477
                                              Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                              Hey buddy I suck at betting baseball and know nothing about it.!! But I do know one thing about cappin and that is that most of the time too much data is a bad thing.! If it was not for fantasy baseball a lot of these stats would not be around. You are a better man than me if you can power weight all this info. and make $ betting baseball in the long run.!.................gl
                                              I agree with cappin Terp.............I BET ON TEXAS but have to many times in the past been burnt by a pitcher that had a once a month game or sluggers that were just off.....I'm hoping your bet is wrong terp
                                              Comment
                                              • Redscot
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-16-11
                                                • 2571

                                                #7478
                                                Zimmerman (3B) late scratch in Philadelphia, that doesn't suck for our under. GL tonight LTA
                                                Comment
                                                • Les_Nuts
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-01-12
                                                  • 931

                                                  #7479
                                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                                  Zimmerman (3B) late scratch in Philadelphia, that doesn't suck for our under. GL tonight LTA
                                                  first time I read that I thought you meant J Zim on the mound for the Nats , was worried lol
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SlickRick1382
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-15-11
                                                    • 3838

                                                    #7480
                                                    Anyone seeing what's going on in the Phillies / Nationals game? Nats break through for 5 and Carlos Ruiz gets tossed. Had Phillies tied up in some exotics. Looks like it's going to kill my night ...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hey buddy
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 02-26-10
                                                      • 362

                                                      #7481
                                                      Originally posted by SlickRick1382
                                                      Anyone seeing what's going on in the Phillies / Nationals game? Nats break through for 5 and Carlos Ruiz gets tossed. Had Phillies tied up in some exotics. Looks like it's going to kill my night ...
                                                      Halladay is off tonight, getting a lot of balls up in the zone. Ruiz was arguing over balls/strikes and got tossed. Both pitchers have a high pitch count so far so the bullpens will come in to play, not good.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #7482
                                                        MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

                                                        Play #1

                                                        Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

                                                        Play #2

                                                        Phillies -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)


                                                        Good luck.
                                                        Last edited by Love The Action; 05-22-12, 11:08 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bleedtoledo
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-29-10
                                                          • 513

                                                          #7483
                                                          Looks like Kansas is starting a MLB virgin at Yankees tomorrow
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #7484
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

                                                            Play #1

                                                            Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)
                                                            Interested to see your write-up re: this play.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bluevase
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 05-08-12
                                                              • 25

                                                              #7485
                                                              Today's best value is them dodgers.

                                                              Lilly is undefeated as a starter with an era of 1.79 and gets no respect with them odds maker.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #7486
                                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012 Recap

                                                                2 - 3 = -1.05x


                                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season

                                                                100 - 98 - 14 = -1.2x

                                                                Needed that Rockies win to get into the black, but they lose by one. We move on. Good luck.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Redscot
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                                  • 2571

                                                                  #7487
                                                                  Originally posted by bluevase
                                                                  Today's best value is them dodgers.

                                                                  Lilly is undefeated as a starter with an era of 1.79 and gets no respect with them odds maker.
                                                                  Could it have anything to do with him being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball thus far this year? .189 Babip is off the charts and leads all starters in MLB. Combine that with a 3.9% HR/FB compared to his career norms of 10.7% and you get the 1.79 era which is really an illusion. Don't get me wrong, he has pitched well, but he hasn't turned into Kershaw overnight and will gradually come back down to earth. It is no coincidence that the line has moved towards Joe Saunders, of all people.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Redscot
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-16-11
                                                                    • 2571

                                                                    #7488
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012 Recap

                                                                    2 - 3 = -1.05x


                                                                    MLB 2012 Regular Season

                                                                    100 - 98 - 14 = -1.2x

                                                                    Needed that Rockies win to get into the black, but they lose by one. We move on. Good luck.
                                                                    We'll be back in black in no time. Thanks for putting in the work and sharing . BIG game in NBA today
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #7489
                                                                      Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                      Could it have anything to do with him being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball thus far this year? .189 Babip is off the charts and leads all starters in MLB. Combine that with a 3.9% HR/FB compared to his career norms of 10.7% and you get the 1.79 era which is really an illusion. Don't get me wrong, he has pitched well, but he hasn't turned into Kershaw overnight and will gradually come back down to earth. It is no coincidence that the line has moved towards Joe Saunders, of all people.
                                                                      I would take the over if anything....
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Redscot
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                                        • 2571

                                                                        #7490
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        I would take the over if anything....
                                                                        Agreed. On another note. Wandy at home against the worst lineup Wrc+ vs. LHP. Samardzja missing bats at a ridiculius 13.3% and the Astros below average against RHP. What you think about the under there? Is 7 asking too much of them?
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...