LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Cards pen let us down, what's up with scrabble (rzypensjkimajiga) this year? Perhaps it will provide an opportunity to win by 2!

Wow , Giants too, lets hope for the best .

[Love The Action]

Cards pen let us down, what's up with scrabble (rzypensjkimajiga) this year? Perhaps it will provide an opportunity to win by 2!

Wow , Giants too, lets hope for the best .

First the cards, and the error by Crawford which allowed Braun to go deep.

[Redscot]

First the cards, and the error by Crawford which allowed Braun to go deep.

And Houston pushed one over, Oak threatening.....time to step away for a minute, wow how the tide can change in the blink of an eye.

[Love The Action]

And Houston pushed one over, Oak threatening.....time to step away for a minute, wow how the tide can change in the blink of an eye.

Crawford burying us in the Giants game. First the error and then he strikes out with the winning run at 2b in the 9th.

[Redscot]

Come on Angels, time to put a few on the board here. Good lord, what is up with this team .

[SlickRick1382]

Giants come through but this Angels team is atrocious. They can't put any type of runs on the board...

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012 Recap

3 - 2 - 2 = +1.4x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

98 - 95 - 14 = -0.15x

Just gotta grind. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

Play #1

Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

[bluevase]

to +115 is good value to me
mets +110
atl -119

and I fade your rockies and taking mia -140. Marlins 10-7 at home vs. rockies 6-12 away. Either you win or I win with this one.

Best of luck to us all and woot to LTA for sharing.

[pacocn]

Lta, spot on with Rockies i was all over that 10 cents
of value as soon as the line opened up

[Redscot]

LTA, you torn between whether to back Washington or the under in Philly tonight?

Hochevar is probably just what the Dr. ordered for those Yankees bats, but that price is too steep.

Looking forward to the rest of your card my man .

P.S. nice day yesterday, was close to a very big day too. Garza didn't show up, unusual for him to get shelled like that, game almost held on anyway. The Angels, I am speechless, Milone is a quality arm, but they should have been able to scratch at least 3 runs off the A's.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

Play #1

Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

Play # 2

Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

Play #1

Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

Play # 2

Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rangers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Rangers have a sizable advantage in all three phases of the game and the advanced splits do not show that Noesi is better at home like his ERA splits. The price has dropped enough to make this play worthwhile and I think the worst we do is a push. I have the rangers set at -171 on the ml so I will take a shot on the -1RL for 1x and avoid most of the juice. Good luck.

[Les_Nuts]

Liking the over 9 in Zona tonight. Weather is gonna be real hot in chase field, bats will be dry and hard, balls will be light, roof is open. I think both teams explode tonight, especially the Dbacks against Harang

[CappinTerp]

This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l

[riffraff24]

This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l

Texas lost big yesterday. So not sure what them not winning b2b means here?

[Love The Action]

This Noesi guy is under rated and a good pitcher IMO. I am on Sea. at least one of us will have a winner.!! Also Texas has not won b2b for almost 2 weeks..................................g l

Good luck buddy.

However, your points are unpersuasive:

1. Texas lost last night so I dont understand why them not winning two nights in a row in the last couple weeks has any significance in this game. Even if they won, that two week trend would not matter to me because the sample size is insignificant.

2. Noesi is bad. I don't think he is underrated in the least. He has a -.1 WAR, an FIP over 5, a tERA, xFIP and SIERA above 4.8, he does not strike people out or miss bats with his meager 5.6 k/9 and 14% k% plus he throws way too many fly balls and line drives as evidenced by his poor 0.75 GB/FB.

3. Noesi has gotten beaten up by Texas in the past who are hitting .368 with a crazy 1.237 OPS against him.

Anything can happen, but I suspect Texas wins today. Why do you think Noesi is underrated?

[bleedtoledo]

I'm guessing Cappin has no idea what those stats you threw at him even mean! Texas bounces back today.

[dredmahawkus]

Best team vs one of the worst teams losing 2 in a row? possible but not likely!

[CappinTerp]

I'm guessing Cappin has no idea what those stats you threw at him even mean! Texas bounces back today.

Hey buddy I suck at betting baseball and know nothing about it.!! But I do know one thing about cappin and that is that most of the time too much data is a bad thing.! If it was not for fantasy baseball a lot of these stats would not be around. You are a better man than me if you can power weight all this info. and make $ betting baseball in the long run.!.................gl

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012

Play #1

Rockies ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at the standard home field -120/+110 set and we're getting eleven cents of value at +121 that I don't expect will last the morning. Colorado has the better statistical offense and Nicasio is outpitching Nolasco across the board. When you consider Nicasio has never faced Miami and unfamiliarity going for him plus a comparable bullpen, Colorado really becomes a solid play. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

Play # 2

Nationals/Phillies under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

My model has this game set at 5.06 and I would normally go bigger than 1x here but the Philly pen has burned me too many times not to be a little wary. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rangers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Rangers have a sizable advantage in all three phases of the game and the advanced splits do not show that Noesi is better at home like his ERA splits. The price has dropped enough to make this play worthwhile and I think the worst we do is a push. I have the rangers set at -171 on the ml so I will take a shot on the -1RL for 1x and avoid most of the juice. Good luck.

Play #4

Angels -1RL (-104) 1x (Locked)

I expect a bounce back for Wilson against a team that struggles against lefties as bad as they do. Thankfully, the angels will be facing the righty Godfrey who will have unfamiliarity as an advantage but that is about all. At some point, the Angela will hit and with them facing a mediocre righty I think that point is tonight. I am rolling with the angels on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Royals/Yankees over (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Although I think both Hughes and Hochevar are candidates to improve as the season progresses thereby providing us some value, in this game I think both guys struggle a bit. The Yanks have not been hitting but are familiar with Hochevar and have hit him hard. The royals are equally familiar with Hughes and are a much better hitting team against righties. The ump is Wegner with his low strike rate and the wind is blowing out softly to right with possible rain. With the Yankee bullpen a bit thin at the moment, that can only help. I have this game set at 10.6 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[chound]

Hey buddy I suck at betting baseball and know nothing about it.!! But I do know one thing about cappin and that is that most of the time too much data is a bad thing.! If it was not for fantasy baseball a lot of these stats would not be around. You are a better man than me if you can power weight all this info. and make $ betting baseball in the long run.!.................gl

I agree with cappin Terp.............I BET ON TEXAS but have to many times in the past been burnt by a pitcher that had a once a month game or sluggers that were just off.....I'm hoping your bet is wrong terp

[Redscot]

Zimmerman (3B) late scratch in Philadelphia, that doesn't suck for our under. GL tonight LTA

[Les_Nuts]

Zimmerman (3B) late scratch in Philadelphia, that doesn't suck for our under. GL tonight LTA

first time I read that I thought you meant J Zim on the mound for the Nats , was worried lol

[SlickRick1382]

Anyone seeing what's going on in the Phillies / Nationals game? Nats break through for 5 and Carlos Ruiz gets tossed. Had Phillies tied up in some exotics. Looks like it's going to kill my night ...

[hey buddy]

Anyone seeing what's going on in the Phillies / Nationals game? Nats break through for 5 and Carlos Ruiz gets tossed. Had Phillies tied up in some exotics. Looks like it's going to kill my night ...

Halladay is off tonight, getting a lot of balls up in the zone. Ruiz was arguing over balls/strikes and got tossed. Both pitchers have a high pitch count so far so the bullpens will come in to play, not good.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[bleedtoledo]

Looks like Kansas is starting a MLB virgin at Yankees tomorrow

[No coincidences]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (-114) 1x (Locked)

Interested to see your write-up re: this play.

[bluevase]

Today's best value is them dodgers.

Lilly is undefeated as a starter with an era of 1.79 and gets no respect with them odds maker.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -1.05x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

100 - 98 - 14 = -1.2x

Needed that Rockies win to get into the black, but they lose by one. We move on. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Today's best value is them dodgers.

Lilly is undefeated as a starter with an era of 1.79 and gets no respect with them odds maker.

Could it have anything to do with him being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball thus far this year? .189 Babip is off the charts and leads all starters in MLB. Combine that with a 3.9% HR/FB compared to his career norms of 10.7% and you get the 1.79 era which is really an illusion. Don't get me wrong, he has pitched well, but he hasn't turned into Kershaw overnight and will gradually come back down to earth. It is no coincidence that the line has moved towards Joe Saunders, of all people.

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/22/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -1.05x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

100 - 98 - 14 = -1.2x

Needed that Rockies win to get into the black, but they lose by one. We move on. Good luck.

We'll be back in black in no time. Thanks for putting in the work and sharing . BIG game in NBA today

[Love The Action]

Could it have anything to do with him being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball thus far this year? .189 Babip is off the charts and leads all starters in MLB. Combine that with a 3.9% HR/FB compared to his career norms of 10.7% and you get the 1.79 era which is really an illusion. Don't get me wrong, he has pitched well, but he hasn't turned into Kershaw overnight and will gradually come back down to earth. It is no coincidence that the line has moved towards Joe Saunders, of all people.

I would take the over if anything....

[Redscot]

I would take the over if anything....

Agreed. On another note. Wandy at home against the worst lineup Wrc+ vs. LHP. Samardzja missing bats at a ridiculius 13.3% and the Astros below average against RHP. What you think about the under there? Is 7 asking too much of them?