MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/20/2012
Play #1
Mets ML (+160) 1x (Locked)
I'm getting a great number here considering that Pinny is at +157. Regardless, there is value at both numbers as I have this game set at +141. Gee's advanced numbers dwarf that of Alvarez across the board by a significant margin. I think most people view Alvarez as the better young pitcher and that may prove to be true down the road, but right now Gee has the better WAR, SIERA, K%, GB/FB, FIP, xFIP, SwStr%, etc. In addition, and as we discussed the other day, the Mets are a much better hitting team against righties than lefties. With the Mets looking to avoid the sweep and coming off a shutout -- both "spots" that I like to back -- I think they get it done today against a guy like Alvarez who pitches to too much contact. I have this game set at +141 giving us a ton of value at any number in the +150's or more and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Braves/Devil Rays under (7)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)
I love this pitching matchup and so does my model. I am still skeptical of the Braves when they face lefties and they will be missing Jones. Hudson is rounding into shape and is a big time ground ball guy which is perfect for this matchup with the Rays lineup. Both pitchers are guys who will pitch deep into the game which should provide for less bullpen activity and hopefully avoid some of the tough beats on unders that have been happening of late. Culbreth is the ump and that's not a bad ump assignment. I have this game set at 5.9 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.
Play #3
Orioles/Nationals under (6.5) 1.5x (Locked)
I love this play and may add to it on the 1st five line once either of my locals release those numbers. I may just add to the game total considering both teams have solid bullpens to date. We have Drake behind the plate and the wind blowing in, both of which help this play. Both pitchers are facing the weaknesses of the opposing lineups with the Nationals struggling against lefties in the bottom 10 of the league in most categories and Balty not hitting righties as well as lefties. Strasburg's numbers are off the chart so need to even get into that and he is coming off one of his worst outting which is a nice bounce back spot with what should be added concentration. Chen has pitched well with a WAR of 0.9 already, with FIP of 3.4, tERA right at 4, SIERA at 4.3 which are respectable considering he faces the toughest offenses in baseball in his division. In addition, whenever Japanese pitchers come over, they generally have success the first time they face opponents. In this game, both pitchers have unfamiliarity working for them. I have this game set at 5.1 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I think this one screams 2-1 game and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #4
Diamondbacks ML (-120) 1x (Locked)
Here is another play that I absolutely love and may add to the stake through the ML or as a -1RL play at plus odds. I expect an easy victory by AZ today. Miley is proving to be a formidable lefty and KC is brutal against lefties coming in the bottom 10 of the league in BABPI, OPS, wRC, wRC+, wOBA, etc. Miley is proving to be a consistent all around pitcher that can strike you out with a 16% K% or get the much-needed ground balls with a 1.5 GB/FB. His advanced numbers are solid with tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at or under 4. Arizona lost yesterday in a high scoring affair which may indicate their bats are coming to life a little bit, but in any event they hit righties much better than the Royals hit lefties and Adcock does not fear me today. I really don't think that much of Adcock and I expect AZ to knock him around today. I have the Diamondbacks set at -130 and I am rolling with the AZ for 1x now and maybe more in a bit. Good luck.
Play #5
Marlins ML (+104) 1x (Locked)
Too much value to pass up here on the superior starting pitcher and lineup that has more potential than Cleveland. This is really the battle of advanced statistics versus conventional numbers when you compare Johnson to Lowe. Lowe has all the wins and fancy ERA, but Johnson is the better pitcher when you dig deeper and the margin is not even that close. Lowe is great at ground balls, but otherwise has a mediocre tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all in the 4.3 range. Johnson is around 3.5 for all and has .4 advantage in WAR. What's really interesting, however, is that the Indians have loaded their lineup with 7 left handed hitters, but Johnson's splits (at least for this year) show that he has been much more dominate against lefties than righties with a FIP of 2.9 and xFIP of 3 against lefties. In years past, Johnson dominated righties but has struggled with that a bit this season coming off the shoulder surgery. The reason I think is because he has adjusted his pitch selection and is throwing more changeups similarly to his approach in 2010 at the height of his success. His changeup moves down and away from lefties which is why he has excelled against them. When you add in the fact that Miami is very familiar with Lowe from his days in the NL but Johnson has not faced the majority of Indian's hitters and has unfamiliarity working for him, this play becomes pretty easy to make. I have Miami set at -110 faves and we're getting +104. Too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Miami for 1x. Good luck.
Play #1
Mets ML (+160) 1x (Locked)
I'm getting a great number here considering that Pinny is at +157. Regardless, there is value at both numbers as I have this game set at +141. Gee's advanced numbers dwarf that of Alvarez across the board by a significant margin. I think most people view Alvarez as the better young pitcher and that may prove to be true down the road, but right now Gee has the better WAR, SIERA, K%, GB/FB, FIP, xFIP, SwStr%, etc. In addition, and as we discussed the other day, the Mets are a much better hitting team against righties than lefties. With the Mets looking to avoid the sweep and coming off a shutout -- both "spots" that I like to back -- I think they get it done today against a guy like Alvarez who pitches to too much contact. I have this game set at +141 giving us a ton of value at any number in the +150's or more and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Braves/Devil Rays under (7)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)
I love this pitching matchup and so does my model. I am still skeptical of the Braves when they face lefties and they will be missing Jones. Hudson is rounding into shape and is a big time ground ball guy which is perfect for this matchup with the Rays lineup. Both pitchers are guys who will pitch deep into the game which should provide for less bullpen activity and hopefully avoid some of the tough beats on unders that have been happening of late. Culbreth is the ump and that's not a bad ump assignment. I have this game set at 5.9 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.
Play #3
Orioles/Nationals under (6.5) 1.5x (Locked)
I love this play and may add to it on the 1st five line once either of my locals release those numbers. I may just add to the game total considering both teams have solid bullpens to date. We have Drake behind the plate and the wind blowing in, both of which help this play. Both pitchers are facing the weaknesses of the opposing lineups with the Nationals struggling against lefties in the bottom 10 of the league in most categories and Balty not hitting righties as well as lefties. Strasburg's numbers are off the chart so need to even get into that and he is coming off one of his worst outting which is a nice bounce back spot with what should be added concentration. Chen has pitched well with a WAR of 0.9 already, with FIP of 3.4, tERA right at 4, SIERA at 4.3 which are respectable considering he faces the toughest offenses in baseball in his division. In addition, whenever Japanese pitchers come over, they generally have success the first time they face opponents. In this game, both pitchers have unfamiliarity working for them. I have this game set at 5.1 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I think this one screams 2-1 game and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #4
Diamondbacks ML (-120) 1x (Locked)
Here is another play that I absolutely love and may add to the stake through the ML or as a -1RL play at plus odds. I expect an easy victory by AZ today. Miley is proving to be a formidable lefty and KC is brutal against lefties coming in the bottom 10 of the league in BABPI, OPS, wRC, wRC+, wOBA, etc. Miley is proving to be a consistent all around pitcher that can strike you out with a 16% K% or get the much-needed ground balls with a 1.5 GB/FB. His advanced numbers are solid with tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at or under 4. Arizona lost yesterday in a high scoring affair which may indicate their bats are coming to life a little bit, but in any event they hit righties much better than the Royals hit lefties and Adcock does not fear me today. I really don't think that much of Adcock and I expect AZ to knock him around today. I have the Diamondbacks set at -130 and I am rolling with the AZ for 1x now and maybe more in a bit. Good luck.
Play #5
Marlins ML (+104) 1x (Locked)
Too much value to pass up here on the superior starting pitcher and lineup that has more potential than Cleveland. This is really the battle of advanced statistics versus conventional numbers when you compare Johnson to Lowe. Lowe has all the wins and fancy ERA, but Johnson is the better pitcher when you dig deeper and the margin is not even that close. Lowe is great at ground balls, but otherwise has a mediocre tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all in the 4.3 range. Johnson is around 3.5 for all and has .4 advantage in WAR. What's really interesting, however, is that the Indians have loaded their lineup with 7 left handed hitters, but Johnson's splits (at least for this year) show that he has been much more dominate against lefties than righties with a FIP of 2.9 and xFIP of 3 against lefties. In years past, Johnson dominated righties but has struggled with that a bit this season coming off the shoulder surgery. The reason I think is because he has adjusted his pitch selection and is throwing more changeups similarly to his approach in 2010 at the height of his success. His changeup moves down and away from lefties which is why he has excelled against them. When you add in the fact that Miami is very familiar with Lowe from his days in the NL but Johnson has not faced the majority of Indian's hitters and has unfamiliarity working for him, this play becomes pretty easy to make. I have Miami set at -110 faves and we're getting +104. Too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Miami for 1x. Good luck.
ML Parlay
Brewers ML (-225)/Arizona ML (-135) (+150) 1x (Locked)
This will be our second ML parlay of the season after losing on the first one. I've been figuring out a way to get a Brewers play in today with Greinke having such a huge advantage over Marquis, plus the Brewers needing to avoid the sweep. I can't pay -225 so I will back the Brewers by playing them with the Arizona ML considering I tragically regret not making that a 2x play when I locked in 1x at -120. This is almost a must win for the Brewers and they have their ace, so I am parlaying them with AZ for a nice +150 price at 1x. Good luck.
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. Pretty hard on yourself bro, looks like an excellent card so far. 
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