LTA's MLB Plays

[Catchn_Picks]

Wendelstadt is behind the plate in TB and Randazzo is in Washington so we have decent ump assignments for our two totals....

In fact...this year:

Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt (1-5 o/u, 6.0 rpg) in Tampa Bay

[SlickRick1382]

In fact...this year:

Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt (1-5 o/u, 6.0 rpg) in Tampa Bay

Not sure why you would give that the thumbs up when we're on the over and that indicates Under lean

[Love The Action]

Two home runs for five runs given up Kuroda all with two outs....azzhole

[SlickRick1382]

Two home runs for five runs given up Kuroda all with two outs....azzhole

Was about to post the same thing. Extremely tough considering we have 2 units on this. Only positive is that since it's the Yankees, they are capable of putting up a runs at any time.

Btw, glad I stayed away from that Seattle / Indians under. Even King Felix is getting rocked (4 runs in the 1st).

[Love The Action]

In fact...this year:

Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt (1-5 o/u, 6.0 rpg) in Tampa Bay

Over his career, he's a an over leaning guy with a strike rate at or around 62%. Are you implying a 6 game sample is more indicative of a o/u lean than a career long sample?

[Love The Action]

Was about to post the same thing. Extremely tough considering we have 2 units on this. Only positive is that since it's the Yankees, they are capable of putting up a runs at any time.

Btw, glad I stayed away from that Seattle / Indians under. Even King Felix is getting rocked (4 runs in the 1st).

Not looking good, but it's a long game...

[Catchn_Picks]

Wow...my bad guys!!!

Sorry LTA and Rick.

The sound you hear is egg dripping on my face.

I played over...but I saw that and thought "Oh great that supports us!"

Gets confusing sometimes you know.

Sorry again.

[Love The Action]

Wow...my bad guys!!!

Sorry LTA and Rick.

The sound you hear is egg dripping on my face.

I played over...but I saw that and thought "Oh great that supports us!"

Gets confusing sometimes you know.

Sorry again.

There's nothing to be sorry about. I was just wondering what your point was. No worries. GL

[Love The Action]

Almost just drove off the road when I saw the Pirates score in the 7th inning on my phone....this is shaping up as a horrible night unless we get some luck. I cannot believe this shit. Sooo frustrated right now. Can't wait to get home and not think about this crap. Unreal.

[Catchn_Picks]

Drive safe LTA...yea starting to get bloody.

And the Yanks laying a hardball egg really sucks with multi units involved.

Can't believe Boston game does not have runs. Bucholtz has been a tomato can so far.

STill got STL...a big basketball game and maybe a Boston rally.

[Zacharrr]

0-3 standard.

[mstrofpigs]

Play #4

Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

I am already playing the yanks ML as Play #1 and will add to that by playing them on the -1RL to avoid the juice. Good luck.

You're good at really ruining a dude's night you schmuck

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012

Play #1

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked)

Kuroda versus Drabek in what is a very close pitching matchup. I am rolling with the better the offense at a decent price. I have the Yankees set at -130 and I am rolling with NY for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is great against lefties and these are two lefties who have come over from the AL and are pitching well this first rotation through the league. I have this game set at 5.6 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against righties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality check and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

I am already playing the yanks ML as Play #1 and will add to that by playing them on the -1RL to avoid the juice. Good luck.

Play #5

Cardinals ML (-104) 1x and (-108) 1x (Locked)

I don't make a habit of fading a pitcher like MBaum, but when he faces a similar caliber SP who has a much better offense behind him on a team that shows value, I will pull the trigger. I have the cardinals set at -113 and I am rolling with STL for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #5. Correct units denoted above.

Can't let the bad night scare me away from an aggressive play. We have a full Cards lineup against a limited Giants lineup. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

You're good at really ruining a dude's night you schmuck

Tough night piggy, tough night.

[Redscot]

Tough night piggy, tough night.

. Whaddayagonnado. We got a nice run waiting for us around the corner. Cards and OKC under would go a long way to straightening out this evening. Let's get it!

[Love The Action]

. Whaddayagonnado. We got a nice run waiting for us around the corner. Cards and OKC under would go a long way to straightening out this evening. Let's get it!

The whole goal is to ride out the bad times and keep your head above water so when you are running hot your BR is still in place to maximize the profits. To me, negative variance is just part of the business. The only hard part is when you are going bad like this, it's so much less enjoyable to the do the work that it takes to be successful. When you are running hot, it's fun and you look forward to the work. When you're running cold, there's a million things I would rather be doing. However, the next 5-0 day is right around the corner -- could be tomorrow -- so you just have to keep an even keel, approach it like a business and stick to your routine and process. At least that's my approach....

[J.M. Disciple]

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked) Lose

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)Lose
Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)Lose
Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked) Lose
Cardinals ML (-104) 1x and (-108) 1x (Locked) Pending (looking good)

[Redscot]

The whole goal is to ride out the bad times and keep your head above water so when you are running hot your BR is still in place to maximize the profits. To me, negative variance is just part of the business. The only hard part is when you are going bad like this, it's so much less enjoyable to the do the work that it takes to be successful. When you are running hot, it's fun and you look forward to the work. When you're running cold, there's a million things I would rather be doing. However, the next 5-0 day is right around the corner -- could be tomorrow -- so you just have to keep an even keel, approach it like a business and stick to your routine and process. At least that's my approach....

You hit the nail on the head man. The discipline needed in the down times is what makes or breaks us long term. And yes, the games are SO much more enjoyable when the variance is at least in the middle....these tough stretches makes one not even want to look at the scoreboard at times....get gun shy. Thank god for family and other interests, would be a tough road to hoe if gambling was the dominant force in ones life. Keep on grinding brother, I enjoy the ride and am confident in where the season is heading.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/17/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Angels under (7) 1.75x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup and so do I. Sale is already at a 1.1 WAR and Wilson at .9 only a 1.5 months into the season. The fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 against lefties and the ump is Fairchild who is fairly favorable to the under, you can start to see why this is such a strong play. I have this game set at 5.7 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.75x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (+149) 1x (Locked)

I rarely play the side and total in the same game, but in this case there is just too much value to pass up. Because the Angels are such a "public" team, they are forced to overprice them regularly, especially at home. In this case, Sale's advanced numbers are actually superior to Wilson's numbers. The offenses are similarly bad against lefties and the bullpens are also very close. I have the White Sox set at +130 even which give us almost 20 cents of value. I am rolling with the White Sox for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked) Lose

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)Lose
Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)Lose
Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked) Lose
Cardinals ML (-104) 1x and (-108) 1x (Locked) Pending (looking good)

Thanks for the update. I had no idea....

[Love The Action]

White Sox/Angels under starting to steam at Pinny...down to -114.

[Catchn_Picks]

The whole goal is to ride out the bad times and keep your head above water so when you are running hot your BR is still in place to maximize the profits. To me, negative variance is just part of the business. The only hard part is when you are going bad like this, it's so much less enjoyable to the do the work that it takes to be successful. When you are running hot, it's fun and you look forward to the work. When you're running cold, there's a million things I would rather be doing. However, the next 5-0 day is right around the corner -- could be tomorrow -- so you just have to keep an even keel, approach it like a business and stick to your routine and process. At least that's my approach....

As a guy that made book at a high level several decades ago I can tell you that baseball, unlike all other sports is absolutely known for breathtaking streaks for both players and books. Football is a ridiculously short season...basketball and hockey a little more. But baseball is a very long season with a lot of games and inherent in this are long streaks of every type. In the old days books just shut down after the BB playoffs and came back for football. But sports betting is a year round endeavor now.

Absolutely nobody gets through a season without some long, agonizing streaks. BR management is a must for any baseball bettor. It is a mathematical certainty that if you a just winging your bets and stepping up your action to catch up, you are doomed.

When reviewing just some of the recent bets...especially totals...you will find a lot of under teams and under pitchers playing very uncharacteristically. That is a good sign that we are in a weird phase and we look forward to straightening things out soon.

Meanwhile, the basketball game is on a 157 pace and we are hoping for a STL victory in the last baseball game.

[Catchn_Picks]

STL breaks it wide open baby!!!!!!!!!!!

Your multi unit win percentage in all sports is pure sickness LTA.

Let's bring it home. Good night all.

[smoovethug]

Over his career, he's a an over leaning guy with a strike rate at or around 62%. Are you implying a 6 game sample is more indicative of a o/u lean than a career long sample?

LTA first off thanks for your posts an insight behind them. I'm relatively new to the angle of factoring in umpires. Typically at what strike rate % does an umpire become over/under leaning?

[taxe91]

LTA first off thanks for your posts an insight behind them. I'm relatively new to the angle of factoring in umpires. Typically at what strike rate % does an umpire become over/under leaning?

from what ive picked up LTA refers to >62% as the 'turning point' for a 'strict' umpire. although to be honest i dont know what the league average is for that statistic

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012 Recap

1 - 4 = -2.42x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

87 - 83 - 11 = +0.88x

Brutal couple of weeks in MLB, but NBA is keeping me afloat and somehow I am still up 3x on the week overall. Time for a sustained run in baseball starting today. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Never mind.....

[Redscot]

from what ive picked up LTA refers to >62% as the 'turning point' for a 'strict' umpire. although to be honest i dont know what the league average is for that statistic

Personally I'd put 63% as closer to the mean. Compiling data since 2005 only 3 umps have an average of Str % of less than 62%. Additionally, the Lawrie incident aside, I have heard anecdotal evidence that the strike %'s are increasing slightly under heavier scrutiny of the Umps.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/17/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Angels under (7) 1.75x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup and so do I. Sale is already at a 1.1 WAR and Wilson at .9 only a 1.5 months into the season. The fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 against lefties and the ump is Fairchild who is fairly favorable to the under, you can start to see why this is such a strong play. I have this game set at 5.7 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.75x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (+149) 1x (Locked)

I rarely play the side and total in the same game, but in this case there is just too much value to pass up. Because the Angels are such a "public" team, they are forced to overprice them regularly, especially at home. In this case, Sale's advanced numbers are actually superior to Wilson's numbers. The offenses are similarly bad against lefties and the bullpens are also very close. I have the White Sox set at +130 even which give us almost 20 cents of value. I am rolling with the White Sox for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Rockies under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Would rather have this at plus odds at 9 than heavy juice at 9.5 because of the light air. Cahill is one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball and Nicasio had unreal success at Coors last season. The wind is blowing in and I am rolling with the under for 1x.

[Love The Action]

Personally I'd put 63% as closer to the mean. Compiling data since 2005 only 3 umps have an average of Str % of less than 62%. Additionally, the Lawrie incident aside, I have heard anecdotal evidence that the strike %'s are increasing slightly under heavier scrutiny of the Umps.

Historically, anything over 63% is favorable to the under while below 62% more favorable to the over. The middle part is the standard.

[LoneStar]

LTA I have faith ya! I believe you get it done today, you know who else I believe gets it done today.....? Don't laugh when I tell you this, butVolstad thats right...Volstad against Halladay! There's only ONE thing on his mind WIN OR PACK your bags.

[Love The Action]

LTA I have faith ya! I believe you get it done today, you know who else I believe gets it done today.....? Don't laugh when I tell you this, butVolstad thats right...Volstad against Halladay! There's only ONE thing on his mind WIN OR PACK your bags.

That's not a bad play and the Cubs do hold some value. Volstad's numbers are much better than his results. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/17/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Angels under (7) 1.75x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup and so do I. Sale is already at a 1.1 WAR and Wilson at .9 only a 1.5 months into the season. The fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 against lefties and the ump is Fairchild who is fairly favorable to the under, you can start to see why this is such a strong play. I have this game set at 5.7 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.75x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (+149) 1x (Locked)

I rarely play the side and total in the same game, but in this case there is just too much value to pass up. Because the Angels are such a "public" team, they are forced to overprice them regularly, especially at home. In this case, Sale's advanced numbers are actually superior to Wilson's numbers. The offenses are similarly bad against lefties and the bullpens are also very close. I have the White Sox set at +130 even which give us almost 20 cents of value. I am rolling with the White Sox for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Rockies under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Would rather have this at plus odds at 9 than heavy juice at 9.5 because of the light air. Cahill is one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball and Nicasio had unreal success at Coors last season. The wind is blowing in and I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #4

Pirates/Nationals under (6)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Love this play despite the teams' recent over streaks. These pitchers are at the top of their games right both having a WAR above 1. Porter is the ump with a nice under lean and the wind is blowing in. Zimmerman also has the unfamiliarity factor in his favor having only faced a couple of the current pirates. I have this game set at 4.92 and it's going to take a final of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[LoneStar]

that's not a bad play and the cubs do hold some value. Volstad's numbers are much better than his results. Good luck.

2 best dogs in boarder school today

chc
oak

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/17/2012

Play #1

White Sox/Angels under (7) 1.75x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup and so do I. Sale is already at a 1.1 WAR and Wilson at .9 only a 1.5 months into the season. The fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 against lefties and the ump is Fairchild who is fairly favorable to the under, you can start to see why this is such a strong play. I have this game set at 5.7 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.75x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (+149) 1x (Locked)

I rarely play the side and total in the same game, but in this case there is just too much value to pass up. Because the Angels are such a "public" team, they are forced to overprice them regularly, especially at home. In this case, Sale's advanced numbers are actually superior to Wilson's numbers. The offenses are similarly bad against lefties and the bullpens are also very close. I have the White Sox set at +130 even which give us almost 20 cents of value. I am rolling with the White Sox for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Rockies under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Would rather have this at plus odds at 9 than heavy juice at 9.5 because of the light air. Cahill is one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball and Nicasio had unreal success at Coors last season. The wind is blowing in and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Pirates/Nationals under (6)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Love this play despite the teams' recent over streaks. These pitchers are at the top of their games right both having a WAR above 1. Porter is the ump with a nice under lean and the wind is blowing in. Zimmerman also has the unfamiliarity factor in his favor having only faced a couple of the current pirates. I have this game set at 4.92 and it's going to take a final of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Reds/Mets under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Latos is improving and has pitched well against this lineup. I am going to trust Dickey's knuckle with the wind blowing in against a team that for whatever reason is not hitting righties all that well at the moment. The ump is Barry and I have this game set at 6.09. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.