LTA's MLB Plays

**taxe91** · 05-16-12, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Here's a post I wrote a few days ago that explains the benefits of beating the closing number:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...l#post14720732 - post #6876

thanks for that. i was curious if there was more to it though, i realised that beating the closer represents paying less juice but ive wondered if there was a more intrinsic value attached to beating the final number.

for example if you beat it by xx cents if that is representing a much higher expected value for you because the probability of the event winning has increased from 55% to XX% however you still get the return that was offered when the probability was 55%. but i guess when odds start fluctuating it just represents demand so im off point

**No coincidences** · 05-16-12, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Interesting read. Surprised no one has done more work in that area in more than 5 years. May have to make a suggestion on Fan Graphs. Those 2 unders were rough, Cueto and Gee expected the other pitchers to take care of it all by themselves, they were good calls. I feel a run coming too SlickRick.

As always LTA, if you get a moment your thoughts on the following games would be appreciated. Taking a quick look at the card the Cards and Braves stand out. Redsox over and the Wsox under as well. GL today

I like the Pads, Braves and Cards Red. I already locked in SD.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 10:08 AM

Just when I was locking in the braves under, the steam hit and I couldn't get the wager in at 8. No play at 7.5....that sucked.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012

Play #1

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked)

Kuroda versus Drabek in what is a very close pitching matchup. I am rolling with the better the offense at a decent price. I have the Yankees set at -130 and I am rolling with NY for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is great against lefties and these are two lefties who have come over from the AL and are pitching well this first rotation through the league. I have this game set at 5.6 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against righties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality check and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**taxe91** · 05-16-12, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against lefties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality chech and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Buchholz is a righty, not sure if that was just a typo. Nevertheless I'm on red sox team total over so here's hoping for an implosion from hell boy.

Gl

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-16-12, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against righties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality check and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Anytime you want to go over on either Boston or Bucholtz...it is OK with me.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Buchholz is a righty, not sure if that was just a typo. Nevertheless I'm on red sox team total over so here's hoping for an implosion from hell boy.

Gl

Yes, a typo. I Fixed it. TB is #10 against righties and #7 against lefties. I expect a high scoring game. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012

Play #1

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked)

Kuroda versus Drabek in what is a very close pitching matchup. I am rolling with the better the offense at a decent price. I have the Yankees set at -130 and I am rolling with NY for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is great against lefties and these are two lefties who have come over from the AL and are pitching well this first rotation through the league. I have this game set at 5.6 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against righties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality check and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

I am already playing the yanks ML as Play #1 and will add to that by playing them on the -1RL to avoid the juice. Good luck.

**LoneStar** · 05-16-12, 02:46 PM

LTA What you think or what's your model tell you for that ARI/COL....? I think the books are hinting on the over 10.5 (-120). I see a slug-fest out in Colorado tonight.

Edit: By-the-way you got a solid card there bud! I wish you best luck tonight on that!

**No coincidences** · 05-16-12, 02:47 PM

What do you make of the pullback in the Yankees line LTA? Really surprised it's sitting at -121 right now, given what I've seen from Drabek recently.

**LoneStar** · 05-16-12, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you make of the pullback in the Yankees line LTA? Really surprised it's sitting at -121 right now, given what I've seen from Drabek recently.

It's sitting at -127 at 5D. I personally see a game time jump!

Edit: I think most people are waiting on the word for Brett Lawrie; if he'll servers a suspension for last nights act

**chief42** · 05-16-12, 03:02 PM

is there a formula to calculate the -1 run line by hand using the combination of -1.5 and the ml?

**hydrosmak** · 05-16-12, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by chief42

is there a formula to calculate the -1 run line by hand using the combination of -1.5 and the ml?

Pretty simple really. Just split a unit in half and put each half on the ML and -1.5 RL.

**Trivial** · 05-16-12, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by chief42

is there a formula to calculate the -1 run line by hand using the combination of -1.5 and the ml?

Your ML bet should win your risk amount of your RL bet. Eg:

ML 60 to win 100
RL 100 to win 300

The most important is that the amounts match in the win on moneyline and risk on run line so a 1 run win pushes. GL.

**chief42** · 05-16-12, 03:40 PM

Appreciate the help, however, I should have asked with more detail. Lets use the Yankee run line game above as an example. The money line is currently sitting at -120, while the run line is at +125. The -1 run line is at -103. All of the numbers being offered at 5 dimes. What I am trying to figure out is does the combination of the run line and money offer better vig than the -1 run line of -103? If it does or does not, how do I figure that out?

**G-manFan** · 05-16-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by chief42

Appreciate the help, however, I should have asked with more detail. Lets use the Yankee run line game above as an example. The money line is currently sitting at -120, while the run line is at +125. The -1 run line is at -103. All of the numbers being offered at 5 dimes. What I am trying to figure out is does the combination of the run line and money offer better vig than the -1 run line of -103? If it does or does not, how do I figure that out?

At five dimes you're usually better off manually placing your -1RL bet as they charge a higher Vig(most times) if you use their -1RL bet. I use a handy calculator to check which book is giving me the better deal.

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

This website is for sale! sportsobjective.com is your first and best source for all of the information you’re looking for. From general topics to more of what you would expect to find here, sportsobjective.com has it all. We hope you find what you are searching for!

**chief42** · 05-16-12, 04:11 PM

Thanks G-manFan, I do have that calculator, it looks like its +111 if I combine the money line and -1.5 run line, as opposed to -103 with just using the -1 run line. Sorry, to clog up the thread, just want to make sure I get this right. I see that using the combining to the two numbers of (updated numbers, including reduced juice on the -1.5RL) -121ml and +130RL would equate a total risk 60.50 to win 50 (using to win 100 total between the two for math sake) and 38.46 to win 50 on the RL which equals a total bet of 98.96 combining the two. The -1RL would be a total bet of 101 to win 100 (updated RL number) saving you 2 cents on vig. However, when I calculate these numbers -121 ml and +130Rl into the http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167, I am getting an new odd of 113.57 which means I should be risking appx 87.50 to win 100. Can someone explain this difference in price I am getting from the two inputs?

**G-manFan** · 05-16-12, 04:18 PM

Yea, I think it was fit-guy who pointed this out about a month ago. You can save yourself a lot of change in the long run by doing it yourself and not using their pre-packaged -1RL. BOL

**Les_Nuts** · 05-16-12, 04:25 PM

D'backs/Rockies has the feel of a 9-6 type game, loving the over 10.5 there. You see anything there LTA?

**slikec** · 05-16-12, 04:29 PM

Correct. I was manually checking that out just week ago and was shocked how big difference it was. Was doing same in soccer but there lines are as they should be only can gain some if different bookies have higher line at different lines.

**Brooklyn** · 05-16-12, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by chief42

Thanks G-manFan, I do have that calculator, it looks like its +111 if I combine the money line and -1.5 run line, as opposed to -103 with just using the -1 run line.

With ML @ -120 and -1.5 RL @ +125, the correct -1 RL synthetic odds are @ +102.

Which is still better than -103 for -1 RL.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you make of the pullback in the Yankees line LTA? Really surprised it's sitting at -121 right now, given what I've seen from Drabek recently.

That "pullback" was because they are resting Jeter today. I am still firmly behind the bombers and expect a multi run victory. GL

**faheemrob** · 05-16-12, 04:43 PM

Think I'm going to take Yankees price is right....

**Brooklyn** · 05-16-12, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by chief42

However, when I calculate these numbers -121 ml and +130Rl into the http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167, I am getting an new odd of 113.57 which means I should be risking appx 87.50 to win 100. Can someone explain this difference in price I am getting from the two inputs?

It's because this calculator is not working correct.

At -121 ML and +130 RL the correct odds for -1 RL are +104.07 and not +113.57

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

D'backs/Rockies has the feel of a 9-6 type game, loving the over 10.5 there. You see anything there LTA?

I lean over as well but will pass. My model has 10.98. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by LoneStar

LTA What you think or what's your model tell you for that ARI/COL....? I think the books are hinting on the over 10.5 (-120). I see a slug-fest out in Colorado tonight.

Edit: By-the-way you got a solid card there bud! I wish you best luck tonight on that!

Good luck dude....I like that over too, but will pass for a bunch of reasons. My model has 10.98. GL

**dlunc3** · 05-16-12, 04:59 PM

For anyone interested... seems like LAD has their #2 lineup going tonight..

1.	T. Gwynn, CF
2.	E. Herrera, 2B
3.	B. Abreu, LF
4.	A. Ethier, RF
5.	J. Sands, 1B
6.	J. Sellers, SS
7.	A. Kennedy, 3B
8.	M. Treanor, C
9.	C. Capuano, P

**SlickRick1382** · 05-16-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

For anyone interested... seems like LAD has their #2 lineup going tonight..

1.	T. Gwynn, CF
2.	E. Herrera, 2B
3.	B. Abreu, LF
4.	A. Ethier, RF
5.	J. Sands, 1B
6.	J. Sellers, SS
7.	A. Kennedy, 3B
8.	M. Treanor, C
9.	C. Capuano, P

That explains the movement on the Padres. Was at +130 or so earlier and now all the way down to -110 on some books.

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 05:14 PM

Anyone have the cardinals lineup yet? Please post if you do..

**SlickRick1382** · 05-16-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Anyone have the cardinals lineup yet? Please post if you do..

Just checked on SI and it hasn't been posted yet. Will scour and see what I come up with

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012

Play #1

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked)

Kuroda versus Drabek in what is a very close pitching matchup. I am rolling with the better the offense at a decent price. I have the Yankees set at -130 and I am rolling with NY for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is great against lefties and these are two lefties who have come over from the AL and are pitching well this first rotation through the league. I have this game set at 5.6 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Red Sox/Devil Rays over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get this at 8, but the market is starting to move so I will take this at -105 on 8.5. The rays are top ten against righties and Bucholtz has not been sharp. Hell boy is due for a reality check and Boston's top five offense should do the trick. I have this game set at 9.7 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Yankees -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

I am already playing the yanks ML as Play #1 and will add to that by playing them on the -1RL to avoid the juice. Good luck.

Play #5

Cardinals ML (-104) 1x (Locked)

I don't make a habit of fading a pitcher like MBaum, but when he faces a similar caliber SP who has a much better offense behind him on a team that shows value, I will pull the trigger. I have the cardinals set at -113 and I am rolling with STL for 1x. Good luck.

**G-manFan** · 05-16-12, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Anyone have the cardinals lineup yet? Please post if you do..

10:15pm Cardinals (J. Garcia - L) @ Giants (M. Bumgarner - L)
1. Rafael Furcal (S) SS
2. Tyler Greene (R) 2B
3. Matt Holliday (R) LF
4. Allen Craig (R) RF
5. Lance Berkman (S) 1B
6. David Freese (R) 3B
7. Shane Robinson (R) CF
8. Tony Cruz (R) C
9. Jaime Garcia (L) P

1. Gregor Blanco (L) RF
2. Charlie Culberson (R) 2B
3. Melky Cabrera (S) LF
4. Buster Posey (R) C
5. Angel Pagan (S) CF
6. Brett Pill (R) 1B
7. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
8. Madison Bumgarner (R) P
9. Emmanuel Burriss (S) 3B

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Just checked on SI and it hasn't been posted yet. Will scour and see what I come up with

Thanks....just locked up the red birds at -104. Too much value to pass up on a team that will have the much better lineup tonight regardless of whether they rest a few guys. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by G-manFan

10:15pm Cardinals (J. Garcia - L) @ Giants (M. Bumgarner - L)
1. Rafael Furcal (S) SS
2. Tyler Greene (R) 2B
3. Matt Holliday (R) LF
4. Allen Craig (R) RF
5. Lance Berkman (S) 1B
6. David Freese (R) 3B
7. Shane Robinson (R) CF
8. Tony Cruz (R) C
9. Jaime Garcia (L) P

1. Gregor Blanco (L) RF
2. Charlie Culberson (R) 2B
3. Melky Cabrera (S) LF
4. Buster Posey (R) C
5. Angel Pagan (S) CF
6. Brett Pill (R) 1B
7. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
8. Madison Bumgarner (R) P
9. Emmanuel Burriss (S) 3B

Beautiful....thanks! Love the cards lineup tonight. Might need to up the stake in that one. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 06:03 PM

Wendelstadt is behind the plate in TB and Randazzo is in Washington so we have decent ump assignments for our two totals....