LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Baseball is a funny game (not so funny sometimes), heading out for the afternoon yesterday the game I felt the best about was the Mets and the one I most worried about was K.C. with Duffy going down in the 1st. Such is life. Ain't nothing to it but to build it back up this week. Hope everyone enjoyed time with their mothers whether with them physically or in spirit.

[pacocn]

Lone star, i don't want to speak for lta, but i know he is usually
hesistant on unders when there is a 90 percent chance of rain.

[poloman]

That 's why sometimes it's good to have a "method" you play without any thinking
because games are so unpredictable... But with LTA on our side it's worth following
him.
Have a good day everyone

[Redscot]

- Gallardo may be slightly off his game but he is far superior to old man Batista. Brew crew seems to have some value at -$127 atm Pinny.

Lean under in Toronto, Baltimore and especially Wsox, would be curious to hear if you share a lean on any of those LTA.

Can Seattle slay another giant tonight? Not so sure about Vargas/Fenway mix, that doesn't seem like a good idea.

[daddyv]

looks like we pulled the trigger early with the cards/cubs...my book now has the under at 7.5(-105)

[LoneStar]

- Gallardo may be slightly off his game but he is far superior to old man Batista. Brew crew seems to have some value at -$127 atm Pinny.

Lean under in Toronto, Baltimore and especially Wsox, would be curious to hear if you share a lean on any of those LTA.

Can Seattle slay another giant tonight? Not so sure about Vargas/Fenway mix, that doesn't seem like a good idea.

Yes Vargas/Seattle Get It Done Today! Just like last year around this time/place, no different. I believe HOU +163 SEA +157 OAK+183 are getting it done today.

[rtydseed]

BOL

[LoneStar]

Lone star, i don't want to speak for lta, but i know he is usually
hesistant on unders when there is a 90 percent chance of rain.

What do you mean, you don't want to speak for him, but you already did by answering the question The rain has NO factor on the outcome of this game for me.

[Love The Action]

LTA I have a strong lean on the under 7 SD/WAS. Can I get your thoughts on it?

I have that game set at 6.87 so I think that number is fairly accurate. The rain might force rain delays which could mean an early entry for the bullpens, especially considering Stauffer is making his first start of the season. I will pass but the line movement seems to be in your favor. I wish you luck and hope you cash. GL

[Love The Action]

- Gallardo may be slightly off his game but he is far superior to old man Batista. Brew crew seems to have some value at -$127 atm Pinny.

Lean under in Toronto, Baltimore and especially Wsox, would be curious to hear if you share a lean on any of those LTA.

Can Seattle slay another giant tonight? Not so sure about Vargas/Fenway mix, that doesn't seem like a good idea.

No value left in the brewers in the -140's that is for sure.

Out of the ones you mention, I really like the white sox under. That is a strong lean and possible play. Good luck buddy!

[SlickRick1382]

Good News:

Matt Kemp, Hamstring, Doubtful - was not in the starting lineup Monday (5/14) vs. Arizona

[Les_Nuts]

Kershaw and Detweiler -1 look good. Price will rise on dodgers when kemp is confirmed out

[Love The Action]

Kershaw and Detweiler -1 look good. Price will rise on dodgers when kemp is confirmed out

I think you mean that the price will drop, however, the loss of Kemp was expected since last night when I locked in the under so I suspect that is already factored into the current number. GL

[BennyFang]

Just wanted to stop in and wish you continued success this season LTA. I was on here a decent amount last summer but just lurk every now and then so far this year. Been too busy with other responsibilities to cap games and talk bases like the good ole days.....but maybe I can get back to it in a month or two. BOL!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/14/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Cardinals under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where a 1st five inning add on may be appropriate. Both pitchers are having a great year, but the Cubs bullpen is always an issue. I have this game set at 5.79, so there is enough value here to make this 1.5x or more play and I may add more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Diamondbacks/Dodgers under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

Both starters in a bounce back spot and solid value to boot at a nice price. Kemp tweaked his hamstring and may not be 100%. I have this game set at 4.7 and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Tigers/White Sox under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Both teams are currently struggling against lefties and Smyly has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. The wind is blowing in gently and the ump is strong under guy in Cuzzie. I have this game set at 7.02 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

What happened to John Danks. It stands to reason this guy's numbers would revert to his career averages which were in line with a solid #3 guy, but he has just been complete and utter dog shit all season. He has horrible command causing him to walk way too many people and he's getting shelled tonight by a Detroit team that has been struggling and ranked #20 against lefties. I guess it's my fault for backing him on an under, but you would think he improves at some point. He had a solid outting last game only giving up 2 over 7. Our only chance is for Smyly to blank the Sox and hope Danks settles down....

[Crofta]

You a religious man LTA? We need a miracle now in the Tigers game..........

[ebbearsfb1]

Baseball is a funny game (not so funny sometimes), heading out for the afternoon yesterday the game I felt the best about was the Mets and the one I most worried about was K.C. with Duffy going down in the 1st. Such is life. Ain't nothing to it but to build it back up this week. Hope everyone enjoyed time with their mothers whether with them physically or in spirit.

sometimes baseball is the sweetest joy,, sometimes its a hated hated man...


like watching my bet on the nats tonight... is a hated hated man.... 3 run lead gone in a matter of minutes.. to then watch ian desmond do a delayed steal that was so pathetic it made it look like he has a bet on the padres.


hope you enjoyed your mothers day with your mother as well.. it was the first mothers day without my mother a live.. but i know she is up in the sky smiling down

[Love The Action]

You a religious man LTA? We need a miracle now in the Tigers game..........

God ain't sending Moses for the White Sox under

I tell you what though, last season I bet the White Sox +130 against the Tigers and they were winning 8-0 in the 9th inning and LOST. So if that can happen against me, maybe we can get lucky and the Tigers will win this one 3-2

EDIT:

Holy crap....now the Cubs of all teams just score 4 runs in the top of the 5th off Westbrook. Man oh man, when it rains it freekin pours. I really hate negative variance....just can't catch a break.

Oh well, just got home. Time to eat with the fam and forget all this crap. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

hope you enjoyed your mothers day with your mother as well.. it was the first mothers day without my mother a live.. but i know she is up in the sky smiling down

Sorry to hear about the Ebears.....I'm sure she was a great lady and was absolutely smiling down on you and your family yesterday

God bless

[ebbearsfb1]

Sorry to hear about the Ebears.....I'm sure she was a great lady and was absolutely smiling down on you and your family yesterday

God bless

Thank You Sir



one day will meet again

[ebbearsfb1]

God ain't sending Moses for the White Sox under

I tell you what though, last season I bet the White Sox +130 against the Tigers and they were winning 8-0 in the 9th inning and LOST. So if that can happen against me, maybe we can get lucky and the Tigers will win this one 3-2

EDIT:

Holy crap....now the Cubs of all teams just score 4 runs in the top of the 5th off Westbrook. Man oh man, when it rains it freekin pours. I really hate negative variance....just can't catch a break.

Oh well, just got home. Time to eat with the fam and forget all this crap. Good luck.

and you come back for more?


im still waiting for the day i get a win like this

[Donkeys2012]

These unders are a ******* joke. Im leaving baseball alone for awhile now these clown ass pitchers cant even keep a single a lineup in the cubs in check and them dempster gets a lead for the first time in 3 months and gives it right back. Total BS

[TC Woods]

Dempster the only pitcher the %$$#@ed up cubs have???

[TC Woods]

These unders are a ******* joke. Im leaving baseball alone for awhile now these clown ass pitchers cant even keep a single a lineup in the cubs in check and them dempster gets a lead for the first time in 3 months and gives it right back. Total BS

I'm with ya on "leaving baseball for awhile"

Even with proper money management, I'm still losing my ass

GL all

[brucethebear]

EDIT:
Holy crap....now the Cubs of all teams just score 4 runs in the top of the 5th off Westbrook. Man oh man, when it rains it freekin pours. I really hate negative variance....just can't catch a break.

Oh well, just got home. Time to eat with the fam and forget all this crap. Good luck.

Unbelievable. I played the FF under 4. Looked great until the top of the 5th. Of course, the scrubs runs through the cards in the bottom half. I realise it is a push and not a loss, but like you said mate, just can't catch an effing break at the moment.

[Dexter]

Sir it is almost like you are talking about a completely different subject and threads. On3 and dexters threads are down considerably. Dexters a3 plays alone are down 50u in 1.5 weeks. You need to grow up sir and learn how to communicate like a normal human being. Thanks again for your kind words.

wrong - 55units down since 5/2. but thanks for being kind.

so you really started betting them after the 4-0 start? that is horrible luck.

[SlickRick1382]

wrong - 55units down since 5/2. but thanks for being kind.

so you really started betting them after the 4-0 start? that is horrible luck.

Apparently he only gets in for the losses and misses the wins. We should pay him to tell us when he tails so we can lay off and double up when he misse the play

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/15/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays (-102) 1.25x (Locked)

Henderson Alvarez is an enigma in a lot of ways. He completely pitches to contact with an extremely low SwStr% under 5% and a K% of 7%. While he is really good at drawing ground balls with a GB/FB of 2, I just don't think he can sustain his early success considering his BABIP is .216 and his LOB% is almost 90%. He just can't sustain those numbers and he's going against a timely hitting Rays team with Price looking to bounce back from a loss to the Yanks. He has a nice history against everyone but Bautista in small samples and we all know his advanced stats are in the top 1/3 of the league. I have Tampa set at -110 and I a rolling with the Rays for 1.25x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/15/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays (-102) 1.25x (Locked)

Henderson Alvarez is an enigma in a lot of ways. He completely pitches to contact with an extremely low SwStr% under 5% and a K% of 7%. While he is really good at drawing ground balls with a GB/FB of 2, I just don't think he can sustain his early success considering his BABIP is .216 and his LOB% is almost 90%. He just can't sustain those numbers and he's going against a timely hitting Rays team with Price looking to bounce back from a loss to the Yanks. He has a nice history against everyone but Bautista in small samples and we all know his advanced stats are in the top 1/3 of the league. I have Tampa set at -110 and I a rolling with the Rays for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals/Rangers over (10) 1x (Locked)

Mazzaro is facing off against Lewis. Mazzaro has bounced around a bit mostly as a reliever and is really nothing special. He has faced Texas enough for them to be familiar with his stuff. Lewis is coming off a great strikeout game, but he gave up 6 runs and has not been sharp. Both offenses are top 10 and KC is much better against righties and have hit Lewis well in the past. Schreiber is the ump and he has a strike rate at or around 60% for his career and is not fond of calling a ton of strikes. I have this game set at 11.6 which is a ton of value. I'm not fond of playing too many overs and this will be a public play for sure, but this is too much value to pass up so I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Some highlight reel outs for LAD in the ninth to seal the multi unit winner under.

Congrats LTA. Great call.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/14/2012 Recap

1 - 2 = -0.1

MLB 2012 Regular Season

84 - 77 - 11 = +3.30x

Back to the grind....

[Vinnie Paz]

Hey man been following this thread plus your nba for some time now. Got a quick question in regards to your mlb picks...I notice that you play many unders, but is there any specific reason why overs are so rarely played? Pretty sure youve only played maybe 3/4 on the year. Just kinda curious to understand any reasoning as to why. Thanks in advance and appreciate everything.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/15/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays (-102) 1.25x (Locked)

Henderson Alvarez is an enigma in a lot of ways. He completely pitches to contact with an extremely low SwStr% under 5% and a K% of 7%. While he is really good at drawing ground balls with a GB/FB of 2, I just don't think he can sustain his early success considering his BABIP is .216 and his LOB% is almost 90%. He just can't sustain those numbers and he's going against a timely hitting Rays team with Price looking to bounce back from a loss to the Yanks. He has a nice history against everyone but Bautista in small samples and we all know his advanced stats are in the top 1/3 of the league. I have Tampa set at -110 and I a rolling with the Rays for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals/Rangers over (10) 1x (Locked)

Mazzaro is facing off against Lewis. Mazzaro has bounced around a bit mostly as a reliever and is really nothing special. He has faced Texas enough for them to be familiar with his stuff. Lewis is coming off a great strikeout game, but he gave up 6 runs and has not been sharp. Both offenses are top 10 and KC is much better against righties and have hit Lewis well in the past. Schreiber is the ump and he has a strike rate at or around 60% for his career and is not fond of calling a ton of strikes. I have this game set at 11.6 which is a ton of value. I'm not fond of playing too many overs and this will be a public play for sure, but this is too much value to pass up so I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Reds/Braves under (7) 1x (Locked)

Need to keep an eye on the weather in this game as a buyout become a possibility if it looks as though rain delays are a possibility. I have this game set at 5.89 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Brewers/Mets under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play that we may need to buy out of in the case of rainy weather. It all depends on whether they delay the start or let it start despite incoming storms. I have this game set at 5.7 which is quite a bit of value here. Hudson is making his fourth start and has improved in each one he has made. Cueto has been more consistent this season than ever before and there's no reason not to back him in this spot. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

lime light. nblove ltA