LTA's MLB Plays

[Trivial]

Wow.. This over/under must be going mad. I had to catch +100. Everytime I tried to place the bet, it changed from -105, -110, +100 during the execution. Finally hit it at +100, but it wasn't easy.

+107 now. Cannot win.

[BiffTFinancial]

with you on Cards and under, LTA. BOL fellas.

[Love The Action]

Now LTA, (Strickly trying to learn here, come check in the thread for that purpose a lot), you always talk about beating the closer. I've always been curious about what happened tonight. Now you could have waited and got the Cards at +122 right now at places. Does that mean it was a bad bet on your part now (how you said your losing money in the long run)? So are bets only good if the line moves in your favor after you bet it? Thanks, again just trying to learn things here, I mean no offense. Thanks, and awesome thread.

The Cards are currently at +122. I bet them early at +115. If the Cards close at +122, then that was a bad bet on my part that would be a losing bet long term if I consistently gave up 7 cents to the closer (thankfully, I rarely do).

The total is currently at 8 with heavy, heavy juice on the over and plus odds on the under. I bet the under at +100 and can get it at +105 now. If the total closes at this same number and I lose 5 cents to the closer, then that was also a bad bet.

Whether I cash these bets or not, both of them are looking like BAD bets right now.

You asked "are bets only good if the line moves in your favor after you bet it? The answer is yes; provided, however, that the line moves in your favor and stays that way so you beat the closer.

I've been beating the closer at a 70% rate for over a month now....unfortunately, it's looking like both of these bets are in that 30% in which I won't beat the closer.

No matter how good you are at reading line movement, you won't be able to beat the closer 100% of the time.

Now, with all that said, I bet the Cardinals because I and my model view Carpenter as a superior pitcher. Throughout most of the day, my Cardinals ML bet hovered between +111 and +113 and was looking like a good bet. However, late money came in on the Rangers and pushed that up past +120. I'm not happy about it, but I'm not ripping up my ticket either.

In conclusion, if the line moves in your favor after you bet it and you beat the closer, then that is a profitable bet over time whether you cash the game or not. For tonight, I'm hoping that I get lucky and both of my "bad" bets end up cashing. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta, bol on your plays tonight

[Trivial]

Ouch. I missed it. How did tex score?

[815Sox]

Ouch. I missed it. How did tex score?

Moreland solo homer.

As was just noted by the broadcast, nice and big strike zone tonight.

[Trivial]

Moreland solo homer.

As was just noted by the broadcast, nice and big strike zone tonight.

Thanks. 2 homers then.

[Love The Action]

Moreland solo homer.

As was just noted by the broadcast, nice and big strike zone tonight.

Exactly...as I noted in another thread, Barrett has a 64.1% strike rate and has historically been an under leaning ump. Just because he has a few overs this year means nothing...that's just variance.

Good luck guys...tied 2-2 bottom of the 7th. Both teams just blew big scoring chances. Let's go Cardinals...a 4-2 winner would be nice!

[Love The Action]

Why did LaRussa take Carp out. He should have started the bottom of the 8th to face Young. He has dominated him all series. Fuking Dotel...that sucked.

[Love The Action]

Are you fuking kidding me...a double play ball right back to the Rezpcynski and he fuking mislplays it and they don't even get one out...unreal!!

What a fuking a shit way to lose...another bad beat. This fuker better not blow the under too

[Trivial]

Are you fuking kidding me...a double play ball right back to the Rezpcynski and he fuking mislplays it and they don't even get one out...unreal!!

What a fuking a shit way to lose...another bad beat. This fuker better not blow the under too

Unreal. These late beats have to end sometime.

[815Sox]

Thanks for both the plays LTA. I will take 1-1 as I did well in some NHL games. Next game should be interesting back in STL

[Trivial]

I thought about a live bet on Tex with the cards up 2-0. Did not too it. :-(

Oh well. We got the under.

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/24/11

1 - 1 = +0x

MLB 2011 Playoffs

19 - 11 = +9.182x

Should have swept Monday's game. The Reczypnski error killed us..oh well, onto Wednesday's game 6 and my picks are locked and loaded. Ready to post now. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/25/11

Play #1

Rangers (+113) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +113. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +113 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

So glad I locked this in early because right when I was writing up my play on the Rangers, the line dropped to 7.5. I only wish I went bigger on the under. Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. We have all the factors of a big game under and I may be adding this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, I´m with you on the Rangers tomorrow. Thanks for a great season

Will you bet hockey after the MLB ?

[Trivial]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/25/11

Play #1

Rangers (+113) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +113. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +113 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

So glad I locked this in early because right when I was writing up my play on the Rangers, the line dropped to 7.5. I only wish I went bigger on the under. Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. We have all the factors of a big game under and I may be adding this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

Thanks LTA. I am on both plays. Locked in at Texas +110. I also bought the extra 0.5. I normally don't do this in baseball, but felt getting under 8 instead of under 7.5 was warranted in this big game.

Good luck.

[upscope]

never saw 8 on the total @ any point in time w/ this line. That's a pretty big .5 run

[Trivial]

never saw 8 on the total @ any point in time w/ this line. That's a pretty big .5 run

Ya - I went through the history of every offshore, and you are right. They all opened up at 7.5.

One of the benefits of dealing with a local (if you can find one).

For now, I'm happy with my purchase. Got under 8 for -135. That is a lot of juice to pay, and is a whopping 15 more cents than it was when LTA got his, but what can you do.

[Love The Action]

never saw 8 on the total @ any point in time w/ this line. That's a pretty big .5 run

I agree...huge...i wish I would have unloaded. My local who follows 5d/ Pinny lines had all the future games for this series posted during the series. For game 7 he currently has texas at -110 with harrison & the cards at even money with lohse. The total is set at 9 with -120 on the over.

I got a bit lucky in that right when last nights game ended and 5d put up their lines, his website immediately switched to those lines and the total went down to 7.5. This same thing happened the other day when I bet under 10 at -115. The rest of the market had 9.5. Now in that game, the total ended going up to 10.5 before dropping back down to 9.5 before game time, but I did have an off market number for awhile. I dont think that happens in this case.

I would take the under 7.5 if I had to (my model has 6.8 btw) but I'm glad I have 8.

Good luck scope!

[Love The Action]

For those looking for action tonight, I do have an ncaaf play....good luck!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p36.html#post12044307

[Love The Action]

Did you guys here about this story out of st. louis that the bullpen phones were out of order or something and they gave LaRussa dotel when he wanted motte....

Sounds like excuses, but that is unforgivable if true. I still can't believe that missed double play on the error on reczypinski....

[No coincidences]

I agree...huge...i wish I would have unloaded. My local who follows 5d/ Pinny lines had all the future games for this series posted during the series. For game 7 he currently has texas at -110 with harrison & the cards at even money with lohse. The total is set at 9 with -120 on the over.

I got a bit lucky in that right when last nights game ended and 5d put up their lines, his website immediately switched to those lines and the total went down to 7.5. This same thing happened the other day when I bet under 10 at -115. The rest of the market had 9.5. Now in that game, the total ended going up to 10.5 before dropping back down to 9.5 before game time, but I did have an off market number for awhile. I dont think that happens in this case.

I would take the under 7.5 if I had to (my model has 6.8 btw) but I'm glad I have 8.

Good luck scope!

You have seen the weather forecast, right?

[No coincidences]

I can't believe your local gave you 8 given the fact that not only did the books open at 7.5, but the under is being juiced there. Guy must not want to be in business for long.

[Love The Action]

You have seen the weather forecast, right?

Yep....i noted the weather in my writeup. The wind is blowing cross field and its going to rain. Whats your point?

This means they will either postpone the game or if I want, I have a great middle opportunity by taking the over 7.5 at plus odds. If the game ends on 8, I would win a unit with no risk. That's why I jumped on the under at 8(-120) when I had the chance.

What is your point about the weather?
GL

[No coincidences]

Yep....i noted the weather in my writeup. The wind is blowing cross field and its going to rain. Whats your point?

This means they will either postpone the game or if I want, I have a great middle opportunity by taking the over 7.5 at plus odds. If the game ends on 8, I would win a unit with no risk. That's why I jumped on the under at 8(-120) when I had the chance.

What is your point about the weather?
GL

I just thought you're usually hesitant about making total plays when there might be delays. You typically talk about buying out of that kind of situation.

[Love The Action]

I can't believe your local gave you 8 given the fact that not only did the books open at 7.5, but the under is being juiced there. Guy must not want to be in business for long.

You are wrong on the opener. Bookmaker also opened at 8(-120). You cant see that on sbr odds, but SI confirms that. Plus, 5d opened at 7.5 with heavy juice on the over. As you know, a half run is worth roughly 25 cents. Therefore, there is no difference in price from 8(-120) and 7.5 (+105). Obviously, you are simply paying the extra juice for the protection of a push on 8. I sort of wish I went bigger bigger at 8(-120) now that the juice shifted, but I am a bit concerned about garcia in this game and dont think the the under is a slam dunk. Plus, the weather plays a role as you referenced above.

Right now, my local has the game 7 total at 9(-120) on the over with lohse and harrison. I think that is too high as well, but I'm not taking it yet. I think my local is just using the alternate lines from 5d for the future games and shading it to the public side. I bet you that once game 6 ends, he drops from 9 to 8.5 or at least adjusts the juice to be consistent with 5d and pinnys opener.

What are you playing in game 6? Do you think the game 7 total of 9 (-120) on the over is accurate or do you see value? What are your projected lines?

Good luck on your plays nc

[Love The Action]

I just thought you're usually hesitant about making total plays when there might be delays. You typically talk about buying out of that kind of situation.

For sure. I was wondering if you had a different angle I was missing.

I am not concerned about the rain in this case because (1) I am getting 8 which allows for a possible profitable hedge with no risk and (2) with this being a world series game the league will probably postpone the game until thursday rather than risk a start/stop/delay situation.

[lakerboy]

LTA i like your writeups. I like you are on texas. I dont agree with the under play though. I think texas smashes them

[ram1502]

Did you guys here about this story out of st. louis that the bullpen phones were out of order or something and they gave LaRussa dotel when he wanted motte....

Sounds like excuses, but that is unforgivable if true. I still can't believe that missed double play on the error on reczypinski....

Something had to be up here...he took out reczypinski, put in Lynn, intentionally walked the next guy then brought in motte. I was like WTF? Who knows the strategy if there was one, but I don't see why recz couldn't put the guy on himself...

[Dexter]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/25/11

Play #1

Rangers (+113) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +113. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +113 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

So glad I locked this in early because right when I was writing up my play on the Rangers, the line dropped to 7.5. I only wish I went bigger on the under. Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. We have all the factors of a big game under and I may be adding this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

damn...25x for lakerboy, you're on texas. im not liking my position.

[fitguy67]

So far this series has been Red, Black (at the wheel in the Red house), then Black, Red, Black (at the wheel in the Black house)...now back to the Red house for another spin or two...right where we started with the original home-wheel advantage to Red...

Now class...a review, but this time adding in tennis terminology...
each color has recorded a "break" on the other color's wheel which evens the set out so far, and if Red can just hold it's "serve" on spin#6...we'd be down to a "tie-break" for which Red would get to "serve" again...

What else do you guyz need to know about baseball , lol

Baccarat anyone?

[Dexter]

I can't believe your local gave you 8 given the fact that not only did the books open at 7.5, but the under is being juiced there. Guy must not want to be in business for long.

its pretty common for local bookies to jack favorites and overs....

[Love The Action]

damn...25x for lakerboy, you're on texas. im not liking my position.

I do like Texas to win game 6 and thus the series. That's not to say I would take Texas in game 7. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

The thing about Texas is that there are very few holes in their lineup. Now, certainly, they are weakened when playing in a national league park. However, Hamilton has looked better and if he is close to normal, that makes the Rangers lineup that much more dangerous. As I watched the series, I generally had my money behind the Cardinals and the under. As I watched the games, I found myself cringing with every Texas hitter that came to bat. It was like one stud right after another. I just think over a 7 game series, that talent is going to rise to the top and prevail.

In addition, the decision to back Texas in this game 6 is predicated on the Texas lineup, but also in relation to what pitchers they face. If Carpenter was fully rested -- for example if tomorrow's game gets delayed and you can get Carpenter on a full four day's rest in game 7 -- then I am more likely to back the Cards in that game.

However, in this one, I have to give the edge to Lewis in a big game over Garcia who, despite a considerable advanced stat advantage, just does not instill the confidence in me to get the job done like Lewis. Lewis did it last season and is doing it in this playoffs as well. Garcia has had some great games, but also some clunkers. I think Lewis has been more consistent.

I like the line movement so far as I am beating the current number on the ML and killing to the total. I just hope it continues.

Good luck Dex

[MasterEOD]

LTA,
Thanks for all and have enjoyed your thread for the later part of the season. Learned alot from you and your write-ups. All the best to you. I will be following your NCAAF and NFL threads also.
Respectfully,
MasterEOD