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Play #6
Royals ML (+118) 0.50x (Locked)
Play #7
Royals/Minny under (8.5) 0.50x (Locked)
I decided to take a shot with both of these plays at the last minute. Both pitchers are underrated and the late line movement in favor of both the Royals and under the cinched it for me. These are the public fades of the day since almost 90% o0 all bets are on Minny ML and the over. I'll be contrarian on this one. Good luck.Comment -
Let's get it! I decided to take both the Royals and the under for a half unit each. Good luck!
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All of a sudden Pelfrey and Kendrick are looking like aces
We beat the closer on that one too as we got 8 and it closed at 8.5. Was hoping the steam was a sign of good things to come. There's still time - about 5 innings. Let's hope both starters run out of gas and the bullpens blow it.Comment -
No play on the Brewers or Brewers over. Marcum could go either way and that total is too high.
I will be playing the Diamondbacks -1RL for sure. I am also looking hard at the Texas/Seattle over.
I lean to the Padres to defeat the Giants in a game that stays under the posted total. However, I'm not a fan of going against Cain with a weak offense and I'm not taking the juiced under 5.5.
That's about it...I'll post my final plays soon. Good luck to all today!Last edited by Love The Action; 07-17-11, 02:00 PM.Comment -
Bailey pitched well for the Reds today. Perhaps he will return to early season form.Comment -
Play #8
Arizona -1 RL (AZ ML 0.50x (-155) and AZ -1.5 RL 0.50x (+135))
Play #9
Texas/Seattle over (7.5)(+100) 0.50x (Locked)
We have a huge disparity in starters with Hudson vs. Lilly. Hudson dominates Lilly in most categories and I expect Arizona to knock him around all day for an easy win. This is for the series win and I don't see the Dodgers pulling this one off. The Diamondbacks should be pumped to establish themselves in this division against a long time rival (for an expansion team) and I expect them to win today by at least 2 runs.
We're taking a bit of a risk whenever you take a Mariners over, but I think the Rangers bats explode on Beavan and welcome him to the bigs. Although they haven't seen him before, and that usually favors the pitchers, I don't think Beavan has seen too many lineups like the Rangers. Harrison stats show he has been a bit lucky this year so the Mariners need to score at some point so why not tonight. The line moved to 7.5 so there is more than public money on this one and I'll roll with the over for 0.50x. Good luck!Comment -
Gotta get this Orioles over and avoid the push after losing by the hook with that Yankees over. That will make the difference for today as long as we don't lose both of the Royals plays.Comment -
Damn...Oakland running roughshot over Pineiro and the Angels..8-0 first inning. Should have put the house on that offensive juggernaut that is the Oakland A's.
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Will Seattle ever score again?
Pick the inning correct inning that Seattle scores and I will give you my two points for the day.
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Bosox?
Wanna close out the night laying it on the Red Sox????
Boston MLComment -
I lean a little more to the under in that one, but agree the Red Sox are probably the right play. I am not playing the under because I can't even get 8 right now as both of my locals are at 7.5 and I'm not risking the hook with Boston's offense. I probably will not lay all that juice on the BoSox ML, but let's see what happens with the AZ and Texas over. Good luck if you lock it!
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I had Texas over as one of my stronger plays today, but good-god you can't underestimate the futility of Seattle's O right now. To top it off, it almost seems like Texas took their foot off the peddle a bit after the early burst and Seattle's non threat. Kudos to Beavan though, he showed good poise today.Comment -
Yeah...line movement pointed that way as well. I knew once the Rangers didn't put any runs on the board after having bases loaded in the first that the over was not looking good -- you can't miss out on those kind of opportunities when you are playing the Mariners and that futile offense to which you refer. Thank god I only played that one for half a unit. We are 5-4 = +2.2x going into the Boston game. Good luck if you play anything tonight.Comment -
Play #10
Red Sox -1 RL (Red Sox ML 0.50x (-135) and Red Sox -1.5 RL 0.50x (+120))
Despite the public nature of this play, I can't ignore the disparity in starting pitching. Beckett is having his best statistical season and although he is due to regress towards his career averages, I don't think it happens tonight against a team he has generally dominated. The statistical numbers are too much to ignore. Beckett boasts a FIP of 3.16, xFIP of 3.71, tERA of 3.29, WHIP of 0.95, BABIP of .225, LOB% of 82.2%, while striking out almost 8 with a K/BB of 2.95. Beckett gives up too many flyballs for my taste with a GB/FB of .88 which is the worst of his career and his HR/FB% is at 10.5%, but he's only giving up .52 HR/9 so I'm not too worried especially against a lineup he has dominated in the past. Those stats are just dominating and put him top 20 to top 50 MLB in most categories and when you compare them to Niemann, you have to think the Red Sox should win by multiple runs tonight. Niemann is sporting FIP, xFIP and tERA in the 4's with a WHIP of 1.4. Plus, he shows no above average ability to get ground balls with a 1.1 GB/FB ratio which is something I look for in the underdog's pitcher. When you look at Boston having the best offense, the best defense and a top 5 bullpen against a weak offensive team with a middle of the road bullpen, I think you have to play Boston in this spot. Niemman sports an ERA over 6 against the Red Sox in his career and one over 5 at home this year so I'm rolling with the Red Sox on the -1 RL. Good luck!
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Should have played the BoSox under...damn.
At least Breaking Bad season premiere on now...best show on TV...Comment -
MLB 7/18/11
Play #1
Washington/Houston over (8) 2x (Locked)
I'm up late watching this damn Red Sox game so I used that time to begin capping tomorrow's card. The first play that stuck out to me was a play worth 2x where Marquis is facing Lyles. Marquis is an athletic guy who is one of the best hitting pitchers out there and will keep his team in the game (and maybe get a hit/RBI). However, he can also give up quite a few runs as evidenced by his 13-5 o/u record on the year. In addition, his defensive independent stats aren't the worst in the world, but they are no better than top 110 MLB stuff. Marquis has a FIP of 3.88 (ok), xFIP of 3.92 (ok) and tERA of 4.63 (poor), with a WHIP of 1.45 (poor), BABIP of .314 and LOB% of 71.7%. The one thing Marquis excels at is getting ground balls at a 53% clip for a GB/FB ration exceeding 2. However, he gives up too many hard hit balls with a LD% of 21% and too many walks at 3.3 per game for a weak K/BB of 1.76. I think the recent awakening of the Houston bats will get at least three off Marquis tomorrow, especially when you take into account his recent struggles with 2.35 WHIP and 8 ERA over his last three starts. On the other Lyles has been a gascan. Here is a guy with a FIP of 4.35, xFIP 4.18 and a tERA of 4.74 which are all bottom of the league stuff. He has a weaker WHIP of 1.38, a BABIP of .293 and a LOB% of 68.8 with even worse batted ball peripherals where he boasts a .93 GB/FB ration because of only throwing about 38% ground balls. This guy walks over 3 batters a game and that never helps. It's pretty clear that looking at the numbers on this one, you have to like the over. However, the trends are overwhelming in favor of the over.
Nationals trends in favor of the over:
- Over is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 Monday games.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Nationals last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Nationals last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-3 in Nationals last 11 games as a road favorite
- Over is 6-0 in Marquis' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Marquis' last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 10-1 in Marquis' last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Over is 8-1 in Marquis' last 9 road starts.
- Over is 12-2 in Marquis' last 14 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Over is 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 10-2 in Marquis' last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts on grass.
- Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Marquis' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Astrols trends in favor of the over:
- Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 Monday games.
- Over is 7-2 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 13-4 in Astros last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 11-4 in Astros last 15 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Plus, head to head trends favoring the over:
- Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
- Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
I think when you combing the numbers with the trends in this one, there is clear edge to the over and I'm going to lock it in now for 2x before the juice starts hitting and this one goes up to 8.5. Good luck.Comment -
MLB Recap 7/16/11 (Saturday)
3-3 = -2.1x
MLB Season
272 - 252= +21.65x
MLB 7/17/11 (Sunday)
5 - 4 = +2.35x
MLB Season 2011
277 - 256 = +24x
Note: this does not include the Red Sox play which is still going on in the top of the 14 inning as I type. I need that one for a real nice day. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the gambling gods and can give us one after taking so many away...Comment -
nice day in MLB! Good luck tomorrow!Comment -
A pretty good day.Comment -
Yeah, it was ok...profitable but disappointing as well. It could have been really big had we not lost by the hook in the Yankees over and pushed on the Red Sox -1RL. They blew so many scoring chances throughout those 16 innings -- multiple times with bases loaded...
Nevertheless, I am very excited about a new week. July has kicked my butt so far...if you combine both my WNBA and MLB, I've had three straight unprofitable weeks for the first time since I began doing this full-time back about 10 months ago. I had my best run of 11 straight profitable weeks from the start of the NBA playoffs until three weeks ago when I began this drought, so I'm looking to start a new profitable streak and hope variance is done kicking my ass. Nevertheless, I feel if just a few of those big unit pushes and bad beats hit over the last three weeks, it could have been entirely different and just goes to show how important getting the best price/number really is in MLB.
Anyway, I always appreciate yours and everyone's support so it's time to start getting back to some consistent profit and I think yesterday kick-started that process. I'm really pumped about the first play so far on the Nationals over for 2x. I also lean the White Sox ML or -1 RL. About to head for work where I will lock stuff in throughout the day. Good luck today.
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Good start to the day grabbing Cle ML, jumping on Was-Hou over 8 which should hit before the 6th inn.Comment -
good luck today, hate to bet overs in this sport...(square plays)...but at the right numbers, 8, for example
is a good percentage......that have been going overComment -
Play #2
Braves ML (+ 120) 1x (Locked)
This price is too good to pass up with one of best sinker ball pitchers which is what you need when playing in colorado. Derek Lowe has had success in Coors Field and Hammel has struggled against the Braves. When you compare stats, its clear the Braves are the right play despite their travel from tge east coast to the west coast last night. Lowe is top 50 mlb in tERA, FIP and xFIP, with a GB/FB ratio exceeding 2.7. That tells me he avoids fly balls which is perfect for colorado thin air. On the other side, Hammel is ranked in the low 100s mlb in the same categories and has a career era over 9 and WHIP over 2 in 4 career starts versus the Braves. Based on this disparity in starters, I'm rolling with the Braves ml for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Thanks...you too. I just take it day to day and take what the card gives me according to my model, research and line movement. There is no under worth taking on todays board so I will roll with some good looking overs. In todays market, I feel the whole fade the public, sharp v square thing is overrated. Public plays hit so you can't avoid a play just because its public nature. This is not the 1960s anymore....Last edited by Love The Action; 07-18-11, 04:58 PM.Comment -
I use about ten different resources and won't name them all, but espn, fangraphs, covers, teamrankings, cbsspots, yahoo sports, baseball reference, ststfox are good along with some fantasy mlb sites. There is no one place, you have to look all over. Hope that helps. Bol...Comment -
Play #3
White Sox -1 RL (0.50x ml (-125) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+ 130))
I called this play last night and then got a bit scared off by the line movement in favor of the royals despite everyone on the cws. Since that time the price on the cws went back up so im back on the davies fade train. Buehrle is the most consistent cws starter and their bats are starting to wake up a bit, so I will roll with the cws -1 rl for a little over 1x. Good luck.Comment -
TV
Breaking Bad started last night???Son of a bitch I missed it!!!!!!!Think they do a replay later in week though????Good luck on bets!!!Comment -
Pretty fickle card today LTA, I like your choices. BOL. As always tailing blindly on the chicks 
, appreciate your efforts bro.
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MLB Season 2011
277 - 256 = +24x
Here is season record going into tonight. We ended up pushing on the Red Sox -1RL game last night so there was no adjustment for that one. Good luck tonight.Comment -
Good luck...let's get that WNBA over...kind of worried though that the total dropped a half point but hopefully that's public money on the under.
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Yeah...pretty good episode too. I'm pumped about the rest of the season.
Go to your local cable/satellite AMC station and do a search. Usually they do replays late at night on Thursday nights. I was able to record the entire series that way....good luck on your plays.Comment
