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Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#106Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#108Not a great start in our afternoon games. However, we didn't have a great start on the Yankees under and cashed that one. The breaks gotta start falling our way sooner or later so might as well be today.
Heading out to watch that Horrible Bosses movie with the wife in a couple hours and will be locking in the rest of today's card shortly. Let's cash these afternoon unders on the way to a big day!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#109Looks like Hamels doesn't have it today...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#110MLB 7/16/11
Play #1
Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)
Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.
Play #2
Angels/A's under (6)(+100) 2.5x (Locked)
I'm excited about this pitching matchup with Weaver v. Cahill. Weaver has been a beast all year. He is currently ranked #2 in MLB with a WHIP of .91, tERA of 2.36 and FIP of 2.4, while he is #30 in xFIP with a 3.46. Weaver has a dominating 1.86 ERA, throws over 7 strikeouts per game, has a HR/9 of .32, opponents are only hitting .192 against him, he strands a ton of runners with an LOB% of 81.2% and has held his BABIP steady at .241. He gives up too many fly balls with a FB% of 48% which provides for a poor GB/FB ratio of .71, but he limits home runs with a HR/FB of 2.7% which is tied for #1 in the league. On the other side, Cahill is young stud only in his third year but remains top 50 MLB in WHIP, FIP, xFIP and tERA. Cahill has a nice BABIP of .269 which is low enough to be good but high enough not to expect a huge regression toward the league average of .3. He holds opponents to a .235 batting average, gives up less than 1 home run per game with a .72 HR/9, and strands a ton of runners with a .77 LOB% which is top 20 MLB. With the Oakland bullpen being top 10 in the league and the Angels bullpen top 15, compared to both offenses being bottom 1/3 in the league, I think we see the under hit today. I am not at all pleased with the umpire assignments which have Dale Scott behind the plate and his low strike rate of 61.6% and his 14-6 o/u record on the year, but in games involving Weaver and Cahill, Scott has usually umped to the under. When you factor in the 8 runs these two teams scored yesterday, I think we see much less in this early game today and I'm rolling with the under for 2.5x at plus odds. Good luck!
Play #3
NYY/Toronto under (7.5)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)
All the outlets started to drop from juicing the over -120 to -115 despite 70% of all bets on the over, so I jumped on getting +105 odds when I still could. Both of my locals have since started juicing the under -105. Look, I know the Yankees have killed lefties this year. In fact, I believe they have won over 60% of their last 60 games versus left handers. However, Romero has pitched well against them this year going 13 innings and only giving up 3 earned runs. Therefore, with both ARod and Bautista out of the lineup today, I think this under sets up as a nice public fade opportunity. Sabathia has been unbelievable over his last three starts with a 0.00 ERA and .80 WHIP. However, on the year, he has been very dominant as well and I don't expect that to stop today. Sabathia is top 15 MLB in tERA with a 3.26, xFIP with a 3.09 and rated #5 MLB in FIP with a 2.5. His WHIP is top 20 material at 1.16. Sabathia has a meaty 73.7% LOB% showing he strands quite a few runners, but is not set to regress and allow more and his BABIP is right at .300 leading me to believe he will not regress as the year goes on. With Sabathia striking out almost 8 per game, but only giving up about 2 walks per game, he has as sweet 3.6 K/BB rate. Finally, Sabathia's batted ball peripherals are also top 10 MLB with a GB/FB ratio over 1.6 and a HR/FB rate of only 3.9% showing home runs are few and far between when he pitches. I look at this one a lot like the Weaver/Cahill matchup we analyzed earlier with the great vet facing the young stud. Make no mistake, Romero is a young stud. Much like Cahill, Romero is also in his third full year and also has top 50 MLB stats in WHIP, tERA, FIP and xFIP. Romero has been a bit lucky this year as evidenced by a lower BABIP of 2.72 (although this is not extremely low where a huge regression is likely) and a 79% LOB%, but he is the real deal and has been able to pitch out of jams because of his ability to get strikeouts at over 7.4 per game and a huge 1.6 GB/FB ratio good for top 30 MLB. Because he throws so many ground balls, his HR/FB ratio is high at over 11%, but that is tempered by his .96 HR/9 results which show we should only expect about 1 HR per game from him. Hopefully, if he gives up one today, it will be a solo home run. The ump in this one is Tim Tichenor who has a nice strike rate of 62.8% and is 8-12 o/u on the year and in games involving the Yankess has had 2 unders and 1 over. With both teams having top 11 bullpens in the league (Yanks #9 and Blue Jays #11) and both teams big slugger out of the lineup, I'm going to take a shot on the under here for 1.25x. Good luck!
Play #4
Philly/Mets under (7) 1.5x (Locked)
Hamels v. Niese. Much like plays 1-3, this play is based primarily on the starting pitchers. I am running short on time so I won't go into as much detail, however, it's easy to note that Hamels is having a dominant year as top 5 MLB in FIP, xFIP, WHIP and tERA. On the other side, Niese has been successful in the past against the Phillies and this year held them to 0 earned runs over 6.1 innings. However, Niese's season stats are a bit surprising as he ranks top 50 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. He is really having a nice season that projects to continue since his BABIP is over .300 and his LOB% is right at 70%. Both teams have struggled against lefties all year with batting averages (not the best stat but applicable here) around .235, but especially in the last ten games where they are both hitting around .200. With Reyes out, the Mets offense has not been as intimidating and the Mets have become a hot under team with 7 of their last 10 staying under the posted total. The Mets have an ok bullpen that was weakened by the loss of K-Rod so that does concern me and the Phillies bullpen is always a bit scary as well. The ump is Gorman, who has seen more overs hit than unders this year in his games, but he has a beautiful strike rate of 63.8% so I think his lean to the overs is an anomaly. I have this one capped at 6, so I'm going to roll with the value and take the under for 1.5x. Good luck!
Cardinals/Reds -1 RL (0.50x ML (-125) 0.50x RL (+135))
We have a huge disparity in starting pitching here. With respect to advanced stats, Carpenter is in the top 50-100 MLB, while Arroyo is bottom 100 or below 200. When you look at Arroyo's poor history against the Cardinals and his lack of success at home this year, I think you play Cardinals here or no play. I think after yesterday's walk-off loss, Albert and co. come out with big bats and run away with this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for about 1x. Good luck!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#111Just very disappointed in Hamels today. Pathetic.
Need a miracle push.Last edited by Love The Action; 07-16-11, 04:52 PM.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#112MLB 7/16/11
Play #1
Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)
Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.
Play #2
Angels/A's under (6)(+100) 2.5x (Locked)
I'm excited about this pitching matchup with Weaver v. Cahill. Weaver has been a beast all year. He is currently ranked #2 in MLB with a WHIP of .91, tERA of 2.36 and FIP of 2.4, while he is #30 in xFIP with a 3.46. Weaver has a dominating 1.86 ERA, throws over 7 strikeouts per game, has a HR/9 of .32, opponents are only hitting .192 against him, he strands a ton of runners with an LOB% of 81.2% and has held his BABIP steady at .241. He gives up too many fly balls with a FB% of 48% which provides for a poor GB/FB ratio of .71, but he limits home runs with a HR/FB of 2.7% which is tied for #1 in the league. On the other side, Cahill is young stud only in his third year but remains top 50 MLB in WHIP, FIP, xFIP and tERA. Cahill has a nice BABIP of .269 which is low enough to be good but high enough not to expect a huge regression toward the league average of .3. He holds opponents to a .235 batting average, gives up less than 1 home run per game with a .72 HR/9, and strands a ton of runners with a .77 LOB% which is top 20 MLB. With the Oakland bullpen being top 10 in the league and the Angels bullpen top 15, compared to both offenses being bottom 1/3 in the league, I think we see the under hit today. I am not at all pleased with the umpire assignments which have Dale Scott behind the plate and his low strike rate of 61.6% and his 14-6 o/u record on the year, but in games involving Weaver and Cahill, Scott has usually umped to the under. When you factor in the 8 runs these two teams scored yesterday, I think we see much less in this early game today and I'm rolling with the under for 2.5x at plus odds. Good luck!
Play #3
NYY/Toronto under (7.5)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)
All the outlets started to drop from juicing the over -120 to -115 despite 70% of all bets on the over, so I jumped on getting +105 odds when I still could. Both of my locals have since started juicing the under -105. Look, I know the Yankees have killed lefties this year. In fact, I believe they have won over 60% of their last 60 games versus left handers. However, Romero has pitched well against them this year going 13 innings and only giving up 3 earned runs. Therefore, with both ARod and Bautista out of the lineup today, I think this under sets up as a nice public fade opportunity. Sabathia has been unbelievable over his last three starts with a 0.00 ERA and .80 WHIP. However, on the year, he has been very dominant as well and I don't expect that to stop today. Sabathia is top 15 MLB in tERA with a 3.26, xFIP with a 3.09 and rated #5 MLB in FIP with a 2.5. His WHIP is top 20 material at 1.16. Sabathia has a meaty 73.7% LOB% showing he strands quite a few runners, but is not set to regress and allow more and his BABIP is right at .300 leading me to believe he will not regress as the year goes on. With Sabathia striking out almost 8 per game, but only giving up about 2 walks per game, he has as sweet 3.6 K/BB rate. Finally, Sabathia's batted ball peripherals are also top 10 MLB with a GB/FB ratio over 1.6 and a HR/FB rate of only 3.9% showing home runs are few and far between when he pitches. I look at this one a lot like the Weaver/Cahill matchup we analyzed earlier with the great vet facing the young stud. Make no mistake, Romero is a young stud. Much like Cahill, Romero is also in his third full year and also has top 50 MLB stats in WHIP, tERA, FIP and xFIP. Romero has been a bit lucky this year as evidenced by a lower BABIP of 2.72 (although this is not extremely low where a huge regression is likely) and a 79% LOB%, but he is the real deal and has been able to pitch out of jams because of his ability to get strikeouts at over 7.4 per game and a huge 1.6 GB/FB ratio good for top 30 MLB. Because he throws so many ground balls, his HR/FB ratio is high at over 11%, but that is tempered by his .96 HR/9 results which show we should only expect about 1 HR per game from him. Hopefully, if he gives up one today, it will be a solo home run. The ump in this one is Tim Tichenor who has a nice strike rate of 62.8% and is 8-12 o/u on the year and in games involving the Yankess has had 2 unders and 1 over. With both teams having top 11 bullpens in the league (Yanks #9 and Blue Jays #11) and both teams big slugger out of the lineup, I'm going to take a shot on the under here for 1.25x. Good luck!
Play #4
Philly/Mets under (7) 1.5x (Locked)
Hamels v. Niese. Much like plays 1-3, this play is based primarily on the starting pitchers. I am running short on time so I won't go into as much detail, however, it's easy to note that Hamels is having a dominant year as top 5 MLB in FIP, xFIP, WHIP and tERA. On the other side, Niese has been successful in the past against the Phillies and this year held them to 0 earned runs over 6.1 innings. However, Niese's season stats are a bit surprising as he ranks top 50 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. He is really having a nice season that projects to continue since his BABIP is over .300 and his LOB% is right at 70%. Both teams have struggled against lefties all year with batting averages (not the best stat but applicable here) around .235, but especially in the last ten games where they are both hitting around .200. With Reyes out, the Mets offense has not been as intimidating and the Mets have become a hot under team with 7 of their last 10 staying under the posted total. The Mets have an ok bullpen that was weakened by the loss of K-Rod so that does concern me and the Phillies bullpen is always a bit scary as well. The ump is Gorman, who has seen more overs hit than unders this year in his games, but he has a beautiful strike rate of 63.8% so I think his lean to the overs is an anomaly. I have this one capped at 6, so I'm going to roll with the value and take the under for 1.5x. Good luck!
Play #5
Cardinals/Reds -1 RL (0.50x ML (-125) 0.50x RL (+135))
We have a huge disparity in starting pitching here. With respect to advanced stats, Carpenter is in the top 50-100 MLB, while Arroyo is bottom 100 or below 200. When you look at Arroyo's poor history against the Cardinals and his lack of success at home this year, I think you play Cardinals here or no play. I think after yesterday's walk-off loss, Albert and co. come out with big bats and run away with this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for about 1x. Good luck!
Brewers ML (+112) 1x (Locked)
Off to the movies. I will post a play on the Mariners under and possible on Mariners ML later. Good luck to all tonight!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#113MLB 7/16/11
Plays #7 & #8
Mariners ML (+100) 1.25x (locked)
Tex/Seattle under (6) (+ 100) 1.25x (locked)
Comment -
funnymanSBR Wise Guy
- 05-06-10
- 606
#114Tough to win any unders lately.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#115Books have adjusted on the unders...they have dropped them from 6.5 to 6...on many....totals are even low for the back of the rotation pitchers......Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#116Another 2 late inning pushes yesterday cost us 3.75x in profit.
I would say that the books have made a few adjustments, but the bigger issue has been the bullpens. We have had 8 pushes over the last two weeks that should have been easy winners that end up pushing because the bullpens give up multiple runs in the last two innings. Yesterday, the seattle game was 2-1 in the 8th inning and the seattle bullpen gives up 3 runs for the push and in the angels game it was 3-2 in the 9th and the same thing happens. This same story has cost me over 27x of profit in the last two weeks and is the sole reason we are not at + 50x by now . Its unreal....how can this happen time after tim...variance has to kick in here and start giving us some winners...damn pushes.Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#117Nice to see the old Avy back LTA. I think the good karma is right around the corner. Let's turn those pushes into greenbacks today, GL man.
P.S. although at first glance to seeing too much I like today, gonna have a closer look and look forward to your opinions.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#118Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#119MLB 7/17/11
Play #1
Philly/Mets over (8) 1.5x (Locked)
I am still going through the card and will post my plays as I make them and then come back when the card is complete to give you my analysis. I don't want to miss any value as these lines blow up over the next couple hours. This is the busiest part of Sunday morning for line movement so you have to be monitoring everything. Good luck today.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#120I don't see any juicy unders out there today. I do lean under in the Angels/Oakland game but Pineiro has a poor history against that Oakland lineup and has poor defense independent stats.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#121Lots of activity on that Orioles over.....up to tenComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#122
I may play it. The only problem is that once you miss the 9.5, it takes 11 runs to win. Plus, there were a lot of runs these past three days in this series and this could be the day they stop. Not likely, but...
Both pitchers have poor stats, even in the minors where Mitch Atkins was a former Cub bust. Let's put this one on the definite maybe list.Comment -
doinSBR Sharp
- 02-27-09
- 457
#123thanks LTAComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#124Play #2
Indians/Orioles over (10) 1x (Locked)
Everyone and their mother on this play, but that doesn't mean it can't cash. We're a bit late to the party in not getting 9.5, but we'll still take a shot and try to top 10. Two pitchers with horrible stats whether in the minors or majors. More plays to come and then we'll review each of them. Good luck.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#125Leaning over in the Braves game. Also Cardinals ML in the early 1pm games.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#126
Cardinals ML (+100) 1x (Locked)
Big disparity in starting pitching. I was a huge Bailey backer at the start of the year and he rewarded me for it. However, once he was hurt, he has not been the same pitcher. Even though the Reds hit lefties well, Garcia has pitched well against them in the past and this year when he held them to 1 run over six innings in St. Louis. He has not fared as well on the road, but I just don't think Bailey gets it done against one of the better road teams in the MLB. More plays to come and then we'll swing back around to review them all.Comment -
Anthonyg7SBR MVP
- 11-27-10
- 1281
#127On the cards also.. good luck today LTAComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#128
Could be a big card today...Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#130Huge RLM just pushed the Braves total to 7.5. I should have jumped on it at 7. Not sure at 7.5. There's a huge trend to the over head to head in this series and I think Jurrjens is due to give up a few. Let's see where it ends up closing and we may still make this a play.
Could be a big card today...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
-
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#132Not too many sides I like today other than that Cardinals play. Today will be more totals...Comment -
NBA_BrosufRestricted User
- 02-14-11
- 2489
#133Digging these two
Indians/Orioles over (10) 1x (Locked) <<-- horrible starting pitchers means a fun sunday play for these two squads. It must be fans appreciation day or something. They are starting pitchers who are in desperate need of a win.
CLE: Gomez (0-1, 4.91 ERA)
BAL: Atkins (0-0, 8.22 ERA)
Yankees/Blue Jays over (9.5)(-115) 0.75x (Locked)
NYY: Hughes (0-2, 10.57 ERA)
TOR: Villanueva (5-1, 2.99 ERA)
I'm also looking at atl. It looks like it is going to be a tight tight game.
WSH: Gorzelanny (2-6, 3.94 ERA)
ATL: Jurrjens (12-3, 1.87 ERA)Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#134Agreed on Jurjjens, his numbers are exaggerated, he's been very good but his Tera, and xfip #'s suggest he has some coming down to earth to do. I think Gorzelanny is a bit underrated thus far, and don't see as big a disparity on the mound today as first glance would suggest. Tough total at 7 1/2 imo. With that much chalk I am almost inclined to put a small wager on the Nat's.
Before Gorzellany's injury, I game him more deference. Not so much since, but he just had a good outting.
The only thing holding me back is the Braves poor offense and even worse offense against lefties.
We'll see. I think a small play on the Natties might just pay, but I'm not going to make that today. Good luck if you do.
I'm still interested in that over. It was a big move for the books to go up to 7.5 with 70% on the under. Hmmm...
Good luck today!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#136
Play #5
Washington/Atlanta over (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)
I see more movement on the over here even after the books' documented move from 7 to 7.5. All this despite 70%+ on the under today. Some big money is on the over and I will follow because I see a lot of factors pointing that way. I wish I had more time for a writeup on this one because some of the advanced stats with these two pitchers are surprising. I'll take a shot on the over here at plus odds. It's not exactly plus ev to give up the hook on this one, but I'll risk 1x that we land on 8 and not 7.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#137Remaining Leans:
Brewers ML (huge disparity in starting pitching but Marcum slumping lately which is why I also like the over)
Brewers/Rockies over
Diamondbacks -1RL (huge disparity in starting pitching)
Royals ML (Paulino looks good lately)
Texas/Seattle over (although good lately, Harrisos's DIPS tell me he has been getting lucky and I am not sold on Beavan)
Boston/TB under (not sold on Niemann so probably no play, but you always have to look hard at the unders on the ESPN sunday night gow)
Possible big card (8 + plays?) today. I've actually been trying to cut back on number of plays, but I have to play every game where I find an edge of have value according to my models/capping. Plus, I do love the action...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#138I think Phil Humber has come down to earth...I expect him to regress the rest of the year for the White Sox and that is not good news for them as he has actually been the best pitcher for them the first half of the season...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#139Remaining Leans:
Brewers ML (huge disparity in starting pitching but Marcum slumping lately which is why I also like the over)
Brewers/Rockies over
Diamondbacks -1RL (huge disparity in starting pitching)
Royals ML (Paulino looks good lately)
Texas/Seattle over (although good lately, Harrisos's DIPS tell me he has been getting lucky and I am not sold on Beavan)
Boston/TB under (not sold on Niemann so probably no play, but you always have to look hard at the unders on the ESPN sunday night gow)
Possible big card (8 + plays?) today. I've actually been trying to cut back on number of plays, but I have to play every game where I find an edge of have value according to my models/capping. Plus, I do love the action...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#140Keep an eye on the Royals ML and Royals under today. I was a hair away from taking both, but just can't bring myself to do it...Comment
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