Hamels, Phillies drawing big chalk against solid Red Sox
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is one of the top hurlers in the game, no doubt. But despite being at home tonight, should he be laying his much chalk to the Red Sox?
PHILLY WITH HAMELS MAY BE OVERVALUED
This seems like a bit of a big line for this matchup. The betting odds have settled in the -160s for Philly, and most of that is predicated on Phillies starter Cole Hamels’ ability to dominate.
And dominate, no doubt, he can, but he can also have his off days, and when he does, the huge odds that always accompany his starts can turn into huge losses that offset the money made from backing him on his good days. Hamels has been quite accurately priced this year; even though the Phillies are 9-5 in games he starts, his return on bets is close to even.
Boston has been a bit nicked up recently, but Manny Ramirez is not hurt too badly and will probably be back in the lineup for this one. Boston has hit well against lefties this year, and is in fact 10-2 against lefty starters on the season.
Now Hamels is no ordinary lefty starter, that is true. And it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to see that the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup. But this line is still looming large, and Boston might be the side with value here. And because of Hamels’ rep, it might creep even higher as we get closer to game time.
ANGELS HAVE TAKEN THE EARLY BETTING ACTION
The Angels are a bit of an “obvious” play in this one, and the line on the game has moved a notable amount since opening. The Mets are off a Sunday doubleheader and then cross-country travel, only to have to face Angels’ starter Jered Weaver, a guy who is usually very effective at home. I personally did jump on the Angels on the overnights, feeling confident that the line would move in LA’s direction. But I may hedge out of my personal bet on this game if the line creeps much higher.
The Angels’ lineup is not currently as strong as I like it to be when betting a team as this big of a favorite. The potential is there, but as of right now, things are not clicking terribly well. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick need to get into their respective grooves, and the power guys need to start putting it together at the same time. Now that Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews are starting to come alive, the other big bats are suddenly slumping.
Still, this is a tough spot for the Mets and for their starter Mike Pelfrey as well who has been throwing much better of late, but may be in for a downturn starting here. I think the value that existed with the opening lines is gone, but if the line moves much higher, it will appear on the side of the Mets. I doubt however, that it will move much at this point.
MARQUEE MATCHUP FOR MONDAY: VERLANDER AND LINCECUM
This is a marquee matchup that is drawing a lot of attention. However, while Giants’ starter Tim Lincecum is in the midst of a Cy Young-contending season, Detroit starter Justin Verlander is going mostly on reputation.
Verlander, though, has not pitched as poorly as his stat lines would suggest. He did have a handful of bad starts at the beginning of the year, and then a handful of unlucky starts, and that is what produced the statistical ugliness that characterizes his numbers to date for 2008.
But his velocity was always good, and for the most part his command and pitches were working. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before he would start to pitch much better, and that does appear to be happening right now. Verlander has had a very good first half of June, and that is likely to continue for the rest of the month, possibly even the rest of the season.
Now, betting on Verlander, it is true, has not been a pleasant experience so far in 2008. Out of 226 starters in 2008, Verlander ranks 226th in money won or lost on betting his starts. That’s right, there is not a single pitcher in the majors as of now you would have lost more money betting blindly on than Verlander. But that is partially due to his big rep causing him to have inflated lines, and partially due to the Tigers in general being an underachieving team this year. In this spot, at close to even money against the mediocre Giants, it may be a different story for Verlander value-wise.
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is one of the top hurlers in the game, no doubt. But despite being at home tonight, should he be laying his much chalk to the Red Sox?
PHILLY WITH HAMELS MAY BE OVERVALUED
This seems like a bit of a big line for this matchup. The betting odds have settled in the -160s for Philly, and most of that is predicated on Phillies starter Cole Hamels’ ability to dominate.
And dominate, no doubt, he can, but he can also have his off days, and when he does, the huge odds that always accompany his starts can turn into huge losses that offset the money made from backing him on his good days. Hamels has been quite accurately priced this year; even though the Phillies are 9-5 in games he starts, his return on bets is close to even.
Boston has been a bit nicked up recently, but Manny Ramirez is not hurt too badly and will probably be back in the lineup for this one. Boston has hit well against lefties this year, and is in fact 10-2 against lefty starters on the season.
Now Hamels is no ordinary lefty starter, that is true. And it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to see that the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup. But this line is still looming large, and Boston might be the side with value here. And because of Hamels’ rep, it might creep even higher as we get closer to game time.
ANGELS HAVE TAKEN THE EARLY BETTING ACTION
The Angels are a bit of an “obvious” play in this one, and the line on the game has moved a notable amount since opening. The Mets are off a Sunday doubleheader and then cross-country travel, only to have to face Angels’ starter Jered Weaver, a guy who is usually very effective at home. I personally did jump on the Angels on the overnights, feeling confident that the line would move in LA’s direction. But I may hedge out of my personal bet on this game if the line creeps much higher.
The Angels’ lineup is not currently as strong as I like it to be when betting a team as this big of a favorite. The potential is there, but as of right now, things are not clicking terribly well. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick need to get into their respective grooves, and the power guys need to start putting it together at the same time. Now that Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews are starting to come alive, the other big bats are suddenly slumping.
Still, this is a tough spot for the Mets and for their starter Mike Pelfrey as well who has been throwing much better of late, but may be in for a downturn starting here. I think the value that existed with the opening lines is gone, but if the line moves much higher, it will appear on the side of the Mets. I doubt however, that it will move much at this point.
MARQUEE MATCHUP FOR MONDAY: VERLANDER AND LINCECUM
This is a marquee matchup that is drawing a lot of attention. However, while Giants’ starter Tim Lincecum is in the midst of a Cy Young-contending season, Detroit starter Justin Verlander is going mostly on reputation.
Verlander, though, has not pitched as poorly as his stat lines would suggest. He did have a handful of bad starts at the beginning of the year, and then a handful of unlucky starts, and that is what produced the statistical ugliness that characterizes his numbers to date for 2008.
But his velocity was always good, and for the most part his command and pitches were working. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before he would start to pitch much better, and that does appear to be happening right now. Verlander has had a very good first half of June, and that is likely to continue for the rest of the month, possibly even the rest of the season.
Now, betting on Verlander, it is true, has not been a pleasant experience so far in 2008. Out of 226 starters in 2008, Verlander ranks 226th in money won or lost on betting his starts. That’s right, there is not a single pitcher in the majors as of now you would have lost more money betting blindly on than Verlander. But that is partially due to his big rep causing him to have inflated lines, and partially due to the Tigers in general being an underachieving team this year. In this spot, at close to even money against the mediocre Giants, it may be a different story for Verlander value-wise.