Monday, 4th of July

[HOT WINGS]

a high strand rate is pure luck. verlander has some regression to do outside of that too but can anyone explain how you significantly improve your walk rate like he has with no change in K rate? he's actually throwing balls at a career high rate

I agree that at somepoint Verlander has to regress because he cant maintain this all year, but at same time I think Dan Haren has some regressing to do as well.

[Lord and Master]

I agree that at somepoint Verlander has to regress because he cant maintain this all year, but at same time I think Dan Haren has some regressing to do as well.

ok i'll bite, in what area is haren having such luck that he's going to have any noticeable regression?

please explain how strand rate is not luck

[HOT WINGS]

ok i'll bite, in what area is haren having such luck that he's going to have any noticeable regression?

please explain how strand rate is not luck

Sorry all I have is phone right now so you can look at yourself here if you want http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...757&position=P Strand rate is not luck when you strikeout nearly half the batters you face with RISP Dont have exact numbers to prove anything right now as again I am on phone and dont have time for this now. If you disagree it wont hurt my feelings to each his own. Good luck

[Lord and Master]

Sorry all I have is phone right now so you can look at yourself here if you want http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...757&position=P

There is nothing there that would indicate anything more than a very slight regression in HR rate, but he pitches in a pitcher's park and throws mostly cutters so that 6.3% FB/HR rate has barely up to go but that's taken into account in xFIP already. strand rate and BABIP are normal, no velocity decrease.....

Strand rate is not luck when you strikeout nearly half the batters you face with RISP

But that's luck. He's striking out, apparently, more batters when there are runners on versus bases empty. That is pure luck. It's not like a pitcher has the ability to magically increase his K rate just because there's a runner on base

[figue]

i have too. yep, 7-2 +11.21u. lots of things broke my way. other than Lincecum getting lit up, pretty solid across the board.

[HOT WINGS]

There is nothing there that would indicate anything more than a very slight regression in HR rate, but he pitches in a pitcher's park and throws mostly cutters so that 6.3% FB/HR rate has barely up to go but that's taken into account in xFIP already. strand rate and BABIP are normal, no velocity decrease.....



But that's luck. He's striking out, apparently, more batters when there are runners on versus bases empty. That is pure luck. It's not like a pitcher has the ability to magically increase his K rate just because there's a runner on base

I see what your saying with the luck factor and I do tend to agree with average to less pitchers, but I think this is what makes elite pitchers. For example Rick Porcello is pitching and has runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. I would say about 90% of the time both them runners are coming home. Some pitchers cant handle the pressure of having runners on base. You seem like a computer guy or stats guy so lets say its kind of like having TPS reports overdue with your boss at your computer looking over your shoulder. You either perform under pressure or you get fired. Some pitchers get lucky with pop ups and groundballs, but skilled pitchers get K's and the real skilled pitchers get K's in high pressure situations. Right or wrong that is my take.

Like I said before the line is short so I probably wont play based on that alone. Today every stat in world indicated Phillies was play tonight, but line was too short and I laid off what would of been a square winner there just because of line. I wont play a game if I dont like all aspects of it. Its not just all stats/numbers too me.

[Lord and Master]

I see what your saying with the luck factor and I do tend to agree with average to less pitchers, but I think this is what makes elite pitchers. For example Rick Porcello is pitching and has runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. I would say about 90% of the time both them runners are coming home. Some pitchers cant handle the pressure of having runners on base.

There is ZERO proof that strand rate doesn't regress to average. You can have your opinion that certain pitchers are clutch and somehow just magically become better pitchers when the pressure is on but there is no evidence to back it up. Does Verlander just magically get an increase in velocity when runners are on? Does his curveball know that there are runners on base and gain extra spin and movement?

You seem like a computer guy or stats guy so lets say its kind of like having TPS reports overdue with your boss at your computer looking over your shoulder.

I don't know what a TPS but i'm neither a computer guy or a stats guy. I'm a "I want to see evidence behind a theory you thought up" kinda guy

Some pitchers get lucky with pop ups and groundballs

no this is wrong, GB% is skill based

but skilled pitchers get K's and the real skilled pitchers get K's in high pressure situations. Right or wrong that is my take.

wrong, absurd, and completely lacking any factual basis but ok

Today every stat in world indicated Phillies was play tonight

I didn't see one "stat" that said the Phillies were a play, quite the contrary. We won't even get into the idea that looking at a bunch of stats and then "picking a side" is better at predicting games than Pinnacle

Its not just all stats/numbers too me.

you call it stats/numbers, i call it evidence as opposed to some cockamamie theory that is easily colored by cognitive bias

[pacocn]

biff, helluva day, great job