Adding small play on Yanks RL:
NYY -1.5 RL [-105] (3u)
GL
NYY -1.5 RL [-105] (3u)
GL
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The line movement on the Detroit game is insane. I want to up it to a 10 unit play, but I'm gonna keep it at an 8 solely for the fact that DET is facing Weaver. There has been 19 points of movement for DET with only around 59% of public consensus on DET. I think the books were expecting closer to even money or a majority on Weaver as a dog. At this point, with that last jump up 4 pts from -136 to -140, it looks like the books are begging on their hands and knees for square money on "huge value" on Weaver. I feel good on the other side. Let's go Tigers! Looking to start this day off right.
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2:00 play:
CWS -118 (7u)Comment -
4:00 Plays:
LAD -123 (8u)
SEA +115 (3u)
GL.Comment -
I was out so missed your early plays, jumped on these two.
Time to start praying mariners can string together a two straight wins streak!!
(seriously though, rays seems to have been pretty pathetic recently...)
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gotta go against you today and take arizona buddy but bol with your playsComment -
Looking like another awful day...
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Tomorrow, I am going back to basics, back to what was winning for me when I first started the thread. With the success I had initially, when I got my hands on the database, I tested all sorts of ratios and stats to try and quantify my strategy. I thought that if I could turn what I was doing into a spreadsheet that would runs stats and pick the plays, it would work better and be much more profitable. Well since I started doing that shit, I've been somewhat profitable, but not nearly how I was the first couple weeks in the thread. I'm completely scrapping the statistics I was using, and I'm going back to what succeeded for me initially. I can promise everyone in this thread that from now on, I will be only using my initial strategy and not looking at any of the shit that got us to this point.
Looking back at a lot of recent plays, I can see examples of plays I made and didn't make because my "system" (spreadsheet) gave me a different team to pick. Looking at just today's plays, I can see numerous plays I would have made differently had I been following the rules I gave myself when I started the thread. Looking just at today's plays, a lot of games I lost, I believe I would have predicted differently had I been using my original strategy and not my "system". So tonight's play and every play I post from now on will be based on the strategy that I initially used when I started the thread, not on my system. I expect to start winning again tomorrow (and in tonight's game), and no matter how well I do, I will not attempt to quantify a system or anything. I'm sick and tired of losing. I'd rather be winning or losing because of something I did right or wrong, not because I plugged some stats into my "system" and it spit out the wrong or right team. I'll have the play for tonight up in about a half hour. Gonna watch the line move a little longer.
I'm sure some of you may have even noticed me making plays on teams that I normally wouldn't have made before. I'm sure of this cause a couple of you have asked me in a message or in the thread what I think of the line movement from the game (what I based a lot of my early plays on). A lot of times, I have looked at the game in question and realized it wouldn't have been the play if I hadn't changed shit. So I'm done experimenting. I'm going to get back to winning myself and all of you money very soon.
GL always,
Beast.Comment -
Don't worry beast you/we will get back into the winning ways, your one of the better cappers here, i love seeing what you play as it gives me a good idea and makes me more confident in my plays. I trust you to rebound tomorrow and tonight. Hoping your on STL since I am playing it haha. All i know is you'll bounce back and we will make some money!!Comment -
Massive respect for the post above, a vast majority would just blame everything on bad luck or similar excuses (not saying thats not the case here (I wouldnt even know), you are :P), and never make such a post publicly. Hell you've only been losing for a few days and you're still up plenty overall, I'm confident you'll be back winning shortly.
And its indeed good no haters have found their way here. I'll keep on enjoying following your progress, best of luck.Comment -
I'm with you tonight cash, Here's the play:
STL -155 (6u)Comment -
I appreciate the support guys. I wrote that post cause I just had to get it all off my chest. The last few days have been very frustrating because I have continuously followed (or not followed) this system and lost mine and your money while doing it. I plan on making up for the last few shitty days. We will win again.
GL tonight.
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Bea$t= Dude, you don't make ANYBODY take your picks and people should realize that. I think you've done great and no matter who you are, your not going to win every day. That being said, your post shows what kind of a person you are and I for one, appreciate it. I will continue to follow this thread and I know you will get it right
I think everybody in this post is with you and it has stayed positive and will, as far as I'm concerned. We will get it! YOU will get it!
I have noticed when comparing my picks to yours. Don't sweat it.I'm sure some of you may have even noticed me making plays on teams that I normally wouldn't have made before. I'm sure of this cause a couple of you have asked me in a message or in the thread what I think of the line movement from the game (what I based a lot of my early plays on). A lot of times, I have looked at the game in question and realized it wouldn't have been the play if I hadn't changed shit. So I'm done experimenting. I'm going to get back to winning myself and all of you money very soon.Comment -
Haha, I was actually indirectly referring to you when I said some of the guys have been messaging me asking what I thought about the line movement on a certain game. The thing is, every time you messaged me and asked, I would look at the line movement, and I would realize that the play was the opposite of what I would have taken had it not been for my "system" I was plugging the games into.
I'm just glad I'm done with that shit. I'm going back to what I was doing in the beginning and don't plan on looking back at the "system". Hopefully going back to what used to work will bring the positive units back.
Hopefully that can start tonight with the Cards.
Good luck everyone.
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One more thing. Since I am going back to what was working in the beginning, I should be able to post plays earlier, like I did in the beginning. I should be able to have plays posted about 2 hours before game time, unless I need to watch the lines more (in which case, I will let you all know to keep an eye out for possible plays, and post them when I have them)...Comment -
Wow Westbrook. Big Meltdown. WTF
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Well, that's good to hear in a way, LOL. That means I am making good picks. FWIW, I had the Cards tonight too, maybe they'll come back here.Haha, I was actually indirectly referring to you when I said some of the guys have been messaging me asking what I thought about the line movement on a certain game. The thing is, every time you messaged me and asked, I would look at the line movement, and I would realize that the play was the opposite of what I would have taken had it not been for my "system" I was plugging the games into.
I'm just glad I'm done with that shit. I'm going back to what I was doing in the beginning and don't plan on looking back at the "system". Hopefully going back to what used to work will bring the positive units back.
Hopefully that can start tonight with the Cards.
Good luck everyone.Comment -
The cubs is the team that always kills me no matter which way I go on them
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It's only fitting that I lose that game tonight...nothing has gone right lately. Can't wait for tomorrow night. I'm ready to get back on track. I'm tired of this shit.
Be back tomorrow with a recap...Comment -
Yeah damn cards, westbrook was tossing a beauty up until the 6th. You could tell he was getting tired and he was only like 60 pitches in! I think hes too old lol. Today is the day we get back on track boys. Looking forward to plays, hoping for a bid night, liking the card.Comment -
The only thing I am concerned about is that you will stop posting your plays. A lot of cappers, when they go on a cold streak, will just quit and stop posting plays. I love seeing who you pick everyday and to tell you the truth, your the only capper I follow here on SBR.
Your shit is amazing and has won me more money then I can win going with anyone else here on SBR. Again, thank you for all your post and please dont stop posting!!!!!!
BOL today, today we will bounce back and win at least 60% of the games!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
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Once again, thanks for all the support guys. I expect that we will get back on track today. Here's a recap of yesterday's awful plays. Today it's back to square one. I will not even be looking at anything I have used over the past week/week and a half to make plays because it just complicates everything.
DET -136 (8u)
NYY -1.5 RL [-105] (3u)
CIN -150 (2u)
LAD -123 (8u)
CWS -118 (7u)
STL -155 (6u)
CLE -122 (5u)
TEX -105 (4u)
NYM +108 (3u)
SEA +115 (3u)
July 31: 3-7, -30.70 units
Last 3 days: 14-22 (38.89%), -60.18 units
Last Week: 35-42 (45.45%), -47.17 units
YTD: 270-238 (53.15%), +148.39 units
Units Peak: July 26, +229.54 units
Positive Days: 60.47%
Current Streak: 5L
Be back in the afternoon with today's plays. I have never been more excited for a slate of games...looking to bounce back today
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Here are the plays for the night:
MIL -128 (7u)
PHI -136 (5u)
ARI +117 (5u)
BOS -1.5 RL [+111] (4u)
OAK -116 (4u)
NYY -1.5 RL [-110] (3u)
CHC +124 (3u)
FLA +103 (3u)
CIN -124.2 (5u)(Average line of 3 units on -121 and added 2 units on -129)
GL. Hoping to get back to winning tonight.
Parlays will be up soon. Keep an eye out for em. From now on, do not plan on putting Parlay Picks into a Round Robin unless I specify. I will post a couple parlays likely every day to spread risk.
Be back soon.
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4 Team Parlay (All moneylines):
MIL
PHI
BOS
NYY
2 Team Parlay (Moneylines):
OAK
ARI
GL boysComment -
Adding a play on the Braves:
ATL -142 (5u)
GL, that's it for the night. no more plays will be added. Wanted to wait and see if the line took a small jump like I expected.Comment -
on yankees and your phils. Liking your card today may tail a few more of those picks. I am continuing to chase WSH to lose is that a smart idea? I was on mets the past two games and they blew it haha so I feel as today i can make those losses back with jurjens on the mound, but WSH plays atl well and atl has been struggling of late. I also took kershaw today love watching that kid pitch, man hes good.Comment -
oh just saw you posted your ATL play now. Glad you're on that! Lets go, big night tonight boys!!!Comment -
Upping the Braves play to a 5 unit play. Line hasn't changed (5dimes line hasn't changed, other lines jumped). Sorry about any confusion. The line has moved exactly as I expected over the last half hour so I am upgrading it.
Here is a 6 team parlay also:
BOS
MIL
ATL
PHI
NYY
OAK
GLComment -
I added a Braves play probably right as you were posting. I was waiting to see if the line jumped as I expected and it did (3pts at 5:45 and another 3 at 6:00). I already really liked Jurrjens to end the little 2 game winning streak the Nats have, I just wanted to wait and watch the line. I am leaning heavily on the Dodgers...may actually post a play later, but the lack of line movement worries me, so I will likely lay off.
GL tonight bud.
The ATL line continues to rise...rose another point as I am posting this. I am loving that play now.
Let's get it bro. I'm ready for a positive night! GL.
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GL tonight, hoping you'll have a big night.Comment -
Sorry for all the changes, but I am upgrading the Reds play to a 5 unit as well...That's the last change to the plays posted, keep an eye out for a possible Dodgers play. Reds line is currently at -129, so I will adjust it accordingly.Comment
