Bea$t Mode MLB Season Thread (Started 6/16/11)

grind4moneyz · 07-28-11, 12:52 PM

The Reds are flat out killing me as a fan and Sportsbettor. This team is underachieving so badly it makes me, as a fan, sick!

The Mets have torched all of our pitchers(Mets got plenty of help from Cincy D against Cueto).

It's a shame that a team like this is hitting their breaking point and still performs like this. Gotta say, I would make a coaching change. There is something going on because they are underachieving and it's not turning around, in fact it keeps getting worse.

Maybe I'll eat my words and they come back today, I just don't see it now though.

I guess if I start fading them I can atleast find something good regardless of the outcome

benandjerry · 07-28-11, 12:54 PM

I didnt feel too comfortable with either reds or nationals given their recent performance, needless to say my mlb knowledge doesnt exist in comparison to yours, and I guess since they were relatively small (or at least medium sized at most) bets you werent completely sold on those 2 picks either.

I felt the same thing with the red sox, I dont remember the odds pinny had but was thinking going even heavier on the red sox at -2.5 RL might not have been all that bad of a play. As you say, blowout or loss feels somewhat probable. Time will tell I guess.

bea$tmode · 07-28-11, 01:42 PM

Wow. Early Plays looking awful. Very frustrating. Rolling into the 3:30 plays, here they are. Goin dbacks and Rays (again). The Rays have to turn it around...I think. I'm going with them cause I think today is a perfect opportunity for them to get things going against Harden. They have to be pissed about the pathetic loss last night...but with the Rays, I don't even know anymore. We'll see. Here they are:

ARI -102 (6u)
TB +112 (5u)

GL. Back later with the late plays...really hoping a couple of these early games hit. I'm so frustrated right now...

cashville03 · 07-28-11, 02:13 PM

on arizona but cant take tampa i have lost all faith in them but good luck with them! harden is pretty good thoughh

cashville03 · 07-28-11, 02:16 PM

the reds are coming back nicely hopefully they can complete the comeback

grind4moneyz · 07-28-11, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by cashville03

the reds are coming back nicely hopefully they can complete the comeback

Of course they find a way to screw up a come back by allowing the insurance run

The Rays and Reds are absolutely pathetic right now. Not sure which team is worse. Since I'm a reds fan I'll go with....... REDS WORSE!

Ha Ha Ha

Oh well, can't win em all!

cashville03 · 07-28-11, 03:18 PM

id say the rays are worse buddy there already get smacked around 5-0 lol. but yeah cant believe they let up a run in top 9th with a wild pitch, all that effort wasted for nothing. pretty shitty!

grind4moneyz · 07-28-11, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by cashville03

id say the rays are worse buddy there already get smacked around 5-0 lol. but yeah cant believe they let up a run in top 9th with a wild pitch, all that effort wasted for nothing. pretty shitty!

I say Reds worse cause they give you hope by coming back, just to let you down,

Of course I'm a Reds fan so there losses bother me more also.

wade1 · 07-28-11, 03:48 PM

Same ol crap from Reds. When they pitch they can't hit and when they hit they can't pitch

benandjerry · 07-28-11, 04:03 PM

lets hope diamondbacks can help us out of tonights hole and hopefully keep the momentum going into the night to turn it around.

bea$tmode · 07-28-11, 05:33 PM

Night Plays:

SF -124 (9u)
STL -1.5 RL [+110] (5u)
TOR -1 RL [-127] (4u)
TOR -1.5 RL [+115] (3u)
MIN +139 (3u)
PIT +150 (3u)

GL. hoping to turn today around.

bea$tmode · 07-28-11, 05:33 PM

Parlay Picks:

STL
TOR
SF

wade1 · 07-28-11, 05:52 PM

Hey Beast, I remember you said you don't bet against your Phillies. But it seems lately that's all your doing. Reasoning please.

cashville03 · 07-28-11, 05:55 PM

arizona screwed us but atleast tampa came back for you. surprised they did. really liking stl and jays play but not sure if i shud continue firing tonday seeing as its been quite the shitty day for me

benandjerry · 07-28-11, 05:55 PM

How did your last nights parlays do? I know you said you wouldnt post detailed, just trying to get a hum on what success they're having now when you've just started out with them.

btw, wtf happend in that TB game, they seemed completely dead once I checked the score I couldnt believe my eyes...

bea$tmode · 07-28-11, 06:45 PM

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been on the forum much today to reply to your questions, I've been messing with my database a ton, testing a couple things out. Remember, if any of you want a raw MLB database with open and close lines, bet %s and scores, feel free to let me know. I've had one person message me. Even if you don't need it now, it may be useful in the future. It has around 5500+ games in it from the last two seasons. If you want it, just PM me and gimme ur email address and I'll send it over. I spent a ton of time putting it together, but I don't mind sharing it since you guys have all been consistent followers.

Originally posted by wade1

Hey Beast, I remember you said you don't bet against your Phillies. But it seems lately that's all your doing. Reasoning please.

I said that in the initial post, but a while back, I decided and posted that I will start making plays against the Phils if I feel that they are good plays. At the time, I was doing very well picking Phils winners and very well laying off the Phils on nights I thought they would lose. So I am posting and betting plays against them when I see it was a good play. I will not be betting against them at all in the playoffs or any big (division deciding) games or anything. But with my knowledge of the Phils, I figured my plays for them and against them should be some of my most profitable, so I figured I might as well share em with you guys.

Originally posted by benandjerry

How did your last nights parlays do? I know you said you wouldnt post detailed, just trying to get a hum on what success they're having now when you've just started out with them.

btw, wtf happend in that TB game, they seemed completely dead once I checked the score I couldnt believe my eyes...

Thanks for mentioning the parlay picks, I forgot to mention them in the recap, probably cause I was so pissed about the night before haha. The parlay picks did horribly last night (2 for 6). The night before, 5/6 hit. The parlay picks I post are the plays that I feel provide the best expected Win % for a parlay. Hitting parlays is obviously extremely difficult, so I generally put mine in Round Robins with all 2,3,4,5,6s, etc. It is more money risked, but two nights ago, I made a huge profit from the 5 of 6 hitting.

GL tonight boys. Very thankful the Rays won today. Not only for my play, but for the fact that hopefully they get back on track. I can't stand when teams are in funks. I wish every team just played like they should all the time (like the Astros never win, etc.)...

Hoping the night plays make up for a shit day. I should be by my comp most of the night so feel free to post anything you want a reply for.

GL

Beast

benandjerry · 07-28-11, 06:56 PM

I saw you were offering that DB a week or so ago, I was meaning to ask you what size and format it was in but completely forgot. Might be interesting to mess around with some time when I got time to put into it.

bea$tmode · 07-28-11, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by benandjerry

I saw you were offering that DB a week or so ago, I was meaning to ask you what size and format it was in but completely forgot. Might be interesting to mess around with some time when I got time to put into it.

It's just a huge Excel spreadsheet with Visitor team, Home team, Open and Close Favorite Lines, % bet on Visitor and Home, Visitor Score, Home Score.

Like I said, even if you have no intent to use it at all, it may eventually come in handy. I was searching for a database like this forever. I had been given ones before, but none had bet %'s which is what I really wanted. So I just dedicated the time to make my own.

Just PM me if you want it, make sure to provide your email address.

GL always,
Beast

benandjerry · 07-29-11, 05:41 AM

Thanks, will fire off a pm a little later today.

Was a nice turn of events last night having the early games recover just about all early losses, good call on the giants!

grind4moneyz · 07-29-11, 10:00 AM

Looking forward to todays picks and a big day to start the weekend series

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 10:37 AM

Here's a recap of yesterday. Night games made up for a shit day but still ended up in the red. Today, a new streak starts.

Originally posted by bea$tmode

ARI -102 (6u)
TB +112 (5u)

Originally posted by bea$tmode

SF -124 (9u)
STL -1.5 RL [+110] (5u)
TOR -1 RL [-127] (4u)
TOR -1.5 RL [+115] (3u)
MIN +139 (3u)
PIT +150 (3u)
CIN -150 (5u)
DET -132 (4u)
WAS -150 (3u)
MIL -1.5 RL [+115] (2u)

July 28: 6-6, -2.55 units
Last 3: 18-16 (52.94%), +8.37 units
Last Week: 39-41 (48.75%), +21.55 units
YTD: 256-216 (54.24%), +208.57 units
Positive Days: 65.00%
Units Peak: July 26, +229.54 units
Current Streak: 2L

I'm expecting a big day today. Back later on with the plays.

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 05:35 PM

Plays for the 7 and 8 o clock games:

NYM -120 (9u)
SF -115 (7u)
STL -135 (6u)
CWS -112 (5u)
MIL -1.5 RL [+110] (4u)
LAA +129 (4u)
TEX -133 (4u)
CLE -123 (4u)
FLA +144 (3u)

GL. Looking to bounce back tonight.

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 05:36 PM

Parlay picks:

PHI
NYM
SF
STL
MIL

I_WILL_WIN · 07-29-11, 05:38 PM

Im going with you on SF/NYM

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 06:47 PM

WTF. Two of the sites I use the most for matchups and odds (SBR Odds and Covers) both said the Reds made a pitching change to some Matt Maloney mook. Willis is pitching. Extremely frustrating...

Redscot · 07-29-11, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

WTF. Two of the sites I use the most for matchups and odds (SBR Odds and Covers) both said the Reds made a pitching change to some Matt Maloney mook. Willis is pitching. Extremely frustrating...

Yeah man, that was some bullshit. I pounded my local here that takes all bets as action based on same info. Jokes on me atm. Willis is hardly dominant keeping hope alive.

snapperman2 · 07-29-11, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

WTF. Two of the sites I use the most for matchups and odds (SBR Odds and Covers) both said the Reds made a pitching change to some Matt Maloney mook. Willis is pitching. Extremely frustrating...

There was a pitching change from Willis to Maloney, and then a second pitcher change back to Willis again. See http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...fo-vs-cin.html. If you made your bet while Maloney was scheduled to pitch, it may be cancelled now by the sportsbook.

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by snapperman2

There was a pitching change from Willis to Maloney, and then a second pitcher change back to Willis again. See http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...fo-vs-cin.html. If you made your bet while Maloney was scheduled to pitch, it may be cancelled now by the sportsbook.

I didn't, I made it about a half hour before game time. It's my fault really. I should have looked at who 5dimes had listed when I made the bet. Really stupid!

Won't be making that mistake again... Sorry guys.

risk_ay · 07-29-11, 07:54 PM

Just checked in on your season. Some really nice work. Keep it up.

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 08:14 PM

Here are my 10:00 plays. I am really liking the late games.

OAK -143 (8u)
ARI -108 (8u)
TB -105 (6u)
SD -119 (4u)

GL boys.

bea$tmode · 07-29-11, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by risk_ay

Just checked in on your season. Some really nice work. Keep it up.

Thanks bro. If you get back into betting bases, come back to the thread.

GL

benandjerry · 07-29-11, 08:43 PM

Mets better not blow this! Nice to see giants come back too, would only be fair given that pitcher switchup...

bea$tmode · 07-30-11, 10:16 AM

Here's the mlb database for anyone interested. Some people haven't been receiving it when I send it, so here it is for anyone to download who wants it.

As you can see it has visitor, home, open line, close line, % bet on visitor, % bet on home, visitor score and home score. In the “Fave” column, there is one of three values (H, A, or SWAP) H and A mean Home and Away obviously. SWAP means that the favorite changed from open to close. Next to the “Fave” column is a column with the Open Fave Team and one for the Close Fave Team.

Attached Files

RawData.xlsx (410.3 KB, 162 views)

bea$tmode · 07-30-11, 10:24 AM

Recap of an awful night.

Originally posted by bea$tmode

Plays for the 7 and 8 o clock games:

NYM -120 (9u)
SF -115 (7u)
STL -135 (6u)
CWS -112 (5u)
MIL -1.5 RL [+110] (4u)
LAA +129 (4u)
TEX -133 (4u)
CLE -123 (4u)
FLA +144 (3u)

GL. Looking to bounce back tonight.

Originally posted by bea$tmode

Here are my 10:00 plays. I am really liking the late games.

OAK -143 (8u)
ARI -108 (8u)
TB -105 (6u)
SD -119 (4u)

GL boys.

July 29: 5-8, -19.73 units
Last 3: 16-20 (44.44%), -40.7 units
Last Week: 36-44 (45.00%), -5.84 units
YTD: 261-224 (53.81%), +188.84 units
Positive Days: 63.41%
Units Peak: July 26, +229.54 units

I'm sick and tired of losing. I'm gonna win today.

On the bright side, the Parlay picks went 4/5 last night so if any of you took em in a RR, you made a profit.

BAck soon with plays.

bea$tmode · 07-30-11, 11:07 AM

1:00 play:

TEX -106 (3u)

GL