66% MLB System (no chasing)

[ttratter]

I was looking at taking the highest dog ml wise, but take them on the r/l and biggest chalk r/l dog.

Example:

Florida +1.5 -130
Baltimore +1.5 -225

10/15

Those are the first 2 I came across. Any input may help.

[qsilver335]

Personally I like ml dogs in baseball, but each to their own.

[soldier1047]

Papertrade. First time I heard anyone advising that. Solid advice.

[Godsmack]

gl on your plays today

[JVP3122]

I've a question for all of you wise and noble sages out there. Let's assume that this system really does work, and it's a remarkable money maker. How, then, would one implement it? By playing eight different parlays you're essentially creating your own arbitrage opportunity, so you wouldn't be able to place all eight parlays at the same book. The problem, then, obviously is that different books have different lines, so that throws a wrench into the plans. I'm actually curious as to what people on the boards would do in this situation.

[playr101]

good question..

its been said that some play all 8 parlays at the same book.. IE. Legends..

For multiple books.. pick the same 3 games.. and use those books lines in the calculator to show each individual bet.. that should work

and FYI.. last four days.. its gone 3-1 / +$67.00 (if playing to win $100)
on two days the 3-team parlays got downgraded to 2-teamers as games were postponed.

-playr101

[JVP3122]

I would think, though, that even the pro books would collar you before you make too much because of the arb opportunity you're creating for yourself. If it were straight betting I don't think there'd be a problem, but I'd think books would notice pretty quickly what you're doing.

[playr101]

ya... i agree..

i am not playing this .. just tracking it...
if I do start to play it.. (if worth it).. i would use multiple books

-playr101

[xtrzor]

i'm still playing it for very small amount of money, but i made really small profit...so i don't this it's worth playing. anyone got any research if it's for sure the last month of mlb season the lowest percentage of favorites for winning for exactly 1 run !? thx..

[donizoa]

Interesting thread. Thank you

[eddie0vedder]

I've a question for all of you wise and noble sages out there. Let's assume that this system really does work, and it's a remarkable money maker. How, then, would one implement it? By playing eight different parlays you're essentially creating your own arbitrage opportunity, so you wouldn't be able to place all eight parlays at the same book. The problem, then, obviously is that different books have different lines, so that throws a wrench into the plans. I'm actually curious as to what people on the boards would do in this situation.

its not an arbitrage opportunity as there is a way to lose every game in the bet, any book that allows pro gamblers will let you play this system no hassles. ive been playing it without success so far. ive tried so many different ways of picking teams, the 1 run wins are completely random.

[donizoa]

BOL on your plays today

[xtrzor]

its not an arbitrage opportunity as there is a way to lose every game in the bet, any book that allows pro gamblers will let you play this system no hassles. ive been playing it without success so far. ive tried so many different ways of picking teams, the 1 run wins are completely random.

did you try to play all games on board?

[Warwick44]

I'm curious...you guys are discussing this from the standpoint of constructing parlays. Whether in the context of this idea or another, have any of you spent time playing with ML/RL combinations, where toggling your wager size for each part you effectively create synthetic line values?

The most obvious one would be the 1.0 line, but i think a couple books will make 2.5 and 3.5 point RL's...which means there could be 2.0 and 3.0 combinations that might look attractive in certain instances, especially where you think the total is likely to be significantly different than what the books are making.

Comments?

[Michael Ferro]

good luck thank you for letting all of us know.

[Duby]

Thus is an interesting approach

[Beefcakes]

did anyone actually read dr. jay's infallible system? it goes into further explanation of how to pick the match ups and the 3 teams for the parlay combinations

[donizoa]

Infallible system? Impossible, sure 100%

[EasyHustlin]

did anyone actually read dr. jay's infallible system? it goes into further explanation of how to pick the match ups and the 3 teams for the parlay combinations

His math is correct but his actual figures are off. He claims that favs win by exactly one run only 13% of the time. How convenient for him, but a two second database query shows he is wrong. In the last 3 seasons 15.7% of games were won by the fav by 1 run. Seems like a small difference, but when you use this number instead of his bogus one, the edge goes away and you're left with a "system" that is barely good enough to break even.

[donizoa]

Thread dead? Any new record?

[JVP3122]

Thread dead? Any new record?

If it's true what the poster above you wrote, then it won't work. At 16%, you've only got a 52% chance of winning the overall bet.

[donizoa]

Ok, so bye bye. Good luck everyone!

[xtrzor]

i'm not checking this thread, being really busy this month...i think that procent jumps from 11 % to 15% so i think there could be a chance of making a profit, if you choose the highest odds? do you guys think that i should cap a little bit a check some stats and run some test out...and give a chance to the system ? will find time, if there is anyone of you who should help me or atleast comment my plays and so on...?

bol guys

[donizoa]

Best of luck today on your plays

[donizoa]

Today Yankees will win, They have to win!!

[donizoa]

Poor Yankees! San Diego -135 for me

[donizoa]

San Diego won, I cashed! Again San Diego -107

[donizoa]

Wow San Diego 0-6, bad loss for me

[donizoa]

gl on your plays today

[donizoa]

Good luck today .

[JVP3122]

gl on your plays today

Good luck today .

To whom are you writing? Nobody is posting in this thread anymore.

[donizoa]

You are right. Time to change!