66% MLB System (no chasing)

[xtrzor]

It's a system you can play everyday...in 2010 i haven't lost 3 days in a row, and you can use this system everyday. I had like 20 winning days in 1 month, and 10 losing one (+-2 days).

So you lost the bet, only when the favorites win for exactly 1 points(1 run..)...in 2010 if you check the stats, that favorites won for exactly 1run - it's a 13% chance.

So the bet would look like that:

Atlanta Braves -1.5 2.54 A
Milwaukee Brewers 1.9 B



Cincinnati Reds -1.5 2.35 C
Houston Astros 2.27 D


Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 2.1 E
New York Mets 2.8 F


A*C*E 2.37

A*C*F 1.78

A*D*E 2.46

A*D*F 1.84
B*C*E 3.17
B*C*F 2.38
B*D*E 3.29
B*D*F 2.46

so you have to place these 8 kombinations, and i have a special calculator which shows you how much to pay for each kombination...in this case you are risking 19.8 $ to win 10 $...this is just an example.

so have anyone of us played this system previous year(or playing this year)? just want to talk about it. i'm using it for 8 days now, and it is doing pretty well. That's the why i want to share it with you guys.

so if there is anyone interested in this system, i can take time and post all the stats and description of the system and the calculator (made in microsoft excel)...

all the comment are more than welcome. good luck

[Cannon]

I was bad in math so I am out.

[xtrzor]

i would give you everything on the plate the funnyiest thing is, that you have to go to bookmarker, get 6 odds, copy them into the excel, and place 8 parlays i takes you 10 min per day

i just counted the units i made in 1 week...its unbelievable that i made 32 units plus i just can't believe it...i know that it is almost impossible to be like it this 183 more days, but anyway...if there will be some bad luck, it should be really nice profit !!!

[and24]

i would like to see how it works.

[MrMiami]

I would like to see more.

[xtrzor]

okey guys, i will post how to play today. i'm gonna do this for one week, to explain you how to play(it's so easy and successful you won't belive it).

first of all...you have to choose 3 mlb matches, where you can get the highest average odds with dog moneyline, and favorite handicap (which is -1,5).

for today i'm playing:

New York Mets -1,5 2.5 A
Washington Nationals 2.36 B

San Francisco Giants -1,5 2.35 C
St Louis Cardinals 2.5 D

Chicago White Sox -1,5 2.5 E
Tampa Bay Rays 2.31 F

today i will be playing: risking 26 $ to win 20 $

so these parlays i had placed:

kombination 1= A C E = 3.14 $
kombination 2= A C F = 3.40 $
kombination 3= A D E = 2.95 $
kombination 4= A D F = 3.19 $
kombination 5= B C E = 3.33 $
kombination 6= B C F = 3.60 $
kombination 7= B D E = 3.13 $
kombination 8= B D F = 3.38 $

.and this is it. it may happen that we lose tonight (like i sad, it 13% chance that we lose-in case favorite win by exactly 1 point(1 run)), but i have never more than 3 times in a row...but u never know, because nothing is 100% sure, so that is the reason twhy we have to use proper MONEY MANAGEMENT! ). I will post picks everyday for one week, and if it will be good profit, i will translate the system in english. and if the odds will be changing a lot,i will post the calculator here to make this even easyier for you. if you have any question feel free to ask here or just pm me. good luck in your future bets.

ps. sory for my bad english.

[xtrzor]

giants ****** us yesterday.today is new day so i'm playing.
Ny mets -1,5 2.6 A
Was nationals 2.18 B

Sf giants -1,5 2.55 C
Stl cardinals 2,34 D

Bos red sox -1,5 2.3 E
Ny yankees 2.35 F

kombination 1= A C E = 3.24 $
kombination 2= A C F = 3.17 $
kombination 3= A D E = 3.53 $
kombination 4= A D F = 3.45 $
kombination 5= B C E = 3.86 $
kombination 6= B C F = 3.78 $
kombination 7= B D E = 4.20 $
kombination 8= B D F = 4.12 $

playing on other bookie.so today i'm risking 29.3 $ to win 20$.

[thebestthereis]

betting runline and moneyline won't work long term, lucky if you make anything but i wish you luck.

[xtrzor]

betting runline and moneyline won't work long term, lucky if you make anything but i wish you luck.

why do you think that...

Last month in mlb season in 2010, there were 391 matches played.in 44% the underdog has won, and in 70% of the matches, team has won for more then 1 run(points or whatever it is.). so in last month it was 285 matches, where one team beat opposite team for more than 1 run, whicvh is 72,% and in 180 matches, underdog has won à so that is 46%.
So the only time when we lose the bet, is when the favorites win by exactly 1 run. And for this is 13% chance.favorites has won for exactly 1 run in 13 %, and the underdogs had won for exactly 1 run in 14%...13+14=27%.
So in all the matches that favorites has won for more than 1 run is =87%. So we have to choose 3 matches from these 87%(0.87).
0.87*0.87*0.87 = 0.658 (let say it is 66%). So we have 66% chance to pick the righ 3 matches when the favorites will win. So the average odds are 1.7 and let say that we want to win/earn 100$ per day. So we have to place bets for 100/0,7=142,85$ . so we can try this is out : 142,85 * 1,7 = 242,85$.
Statisticly 66% means : 20 winning days out of 30. (it's 19.8, but let say it's 20.).
20x times we have won 100$. What is 2000$
And 10 x times we have lost 10x1142.85=-1428$
Total is +572$ in one month.

I'm sory for my bad english, and this is second time that i'm writting because when i was writting first time i closed sbr by mistake :S
So if anyone could take time and comment this, i would appreciate it.

[trevlyn1983]

I like this idea .. will keep checking up on this one .

[and24]

betting runline and moneyline won't work long term, lucky if you make anything but i wish you luck.

I agree with him. hope you luck.

[soldier1047]

I seen this idea before. But why three teams. Why not 4 or 5 teams? I do like this idea though. It is like doing covered calls in the option market.

[therizz]

Interesting approach. I have seen people playing both sides to get positive money and it usually fails in the long run. I have not seen it set up the way that you have using parlays. I have a MLB database going back 7 years or so with 19,000 or so games. I ran an analysis where I eliminated all home teams higher than -165 and higher than +155. I then eliminated all the games where the home team was -115 or less and home teams +110 or less. This left me with about 12,026 games. In 1366 games the home favorite won by exactly one run = 11.3%. With these numbers you would be pushing closer to a 70% win rate and thus more profit.

Obviously, the key is getting good + odds on each side. Good luck.

[xtrzor]

I seen this idea before. But why three teams. Why not 4 or 5 teams? I do like this idea though. It is like doing covered calls in the option market.

where have you seen it ? and what was the result ?

i don't know...i decided to go with 3 teams...i also made calculator in excel with 3 teams.

if you want guys i can post the bets i played this week when i made 32 units profit, if you don't belive me or if you are doubting.

[xtrzor]

Interesting approach. I have seen people playing both sides to get positive money and it usually fails in the long run. I have not seen it set up the way that you have using parlays. I have a MLB database going back 7 years or so with 19,000 or so games. I ran an analysis where I eliminated all home teams higher than -165 and higher than +155. I then eliminated all the games where the home team was -115 or less and home teams +110 or less. This left me with about 12,026 games. In 1366 games the home favorite won by exactly one run = 11.3%. With these numbers you would be pushing closer to a 70% win rate and thus more profit.

Obviously, the key is getting good + odds on each side. Good luck.

playing both sides? you mean sure betting ?

can you repeat the analysis and don't eliminate any teams!? and if you have time to run it for 2 years ago, and another analys for last month of mlb in 2010!?...because for this system you pick 3 RANDOM matches.

but logically the best way to pick 3 matches is :3 matches where favorites have the odds which are high enough : so you place less money on parlay, and if you lose the parlay, you lose less money.

[xtrzor]

i just hope that the parlay will hit today...so you guys won't give up on the system...because it's been really good week, and it's promising system...and the season is long good luck with your plays.

[southpaw74]

Sounds interesting...if it works I may try it

[therizz]

I got 12.4% for all games. Similar to what you were seeing in the last month. My database does not include this season.
Good luck

[xtrzor]

I got 12.4% for all games. Similar to what you were seeing in the last month. My database does not include this season.
Good luck

okey, if it's 12.4 % for all the games, the i didn't miscalculated that it's was about 13% last month.
thx for really useful information! i would throw you more points, but i'm only able to give you 2. thx and good luck

[playr101]

Another interesting system... good luck..

-playr101

[playr101]

can you post the calculator?

-playr101

[shinnman]

i bought this system last year , then got buried by it

[xtrzor]

can you post the calculator?

-playr101

can you please tell me the best way to upload it here ?

[playr101]

Don't use the quick reply box. Hit the green Post Reply button on the bottom left of the page, right above the quick reply box.
On the new page it opens... in the message area, click the little paperclip button (next to the smiley face button)...that will open another window... browse to your file and upload it...

then hit submit reply and it will be posted attached to your reply.

-playr101

[xtrzor]

i bought this system last year , then got buried by it

really ? where and how much did you paid?

what happened ???

[xtrzor]

thx for helping me upload playr101 ! )

guys before you start using this system, wait for a week,or two or more...to see how it's working...use proper money management. stay disciplined and dont be to greedy. if you are not 100% sure how to use calculator or the system, just ask. i will answer and try to help as fast as you can.

[playr101]

xtrzor... you playing this system at multiple books?

-playr101

[playr101]

that spreadsheet is set for EU odds and pounds.. err.. do you have an easy way to convert to US and dollars?

-playr101

[waterboy]

that spreadsheet is set for EU odds and pounds.. err.. do you have an easy way to convert to US and dollars?

-playr101

I have the same question here.
Can I just change the EU odds to US odds? Will the formula still works the same way?

[therizz]

Thanks for sharing the calculator. I compared picking 2 vs. 3 games and running 4 parlays as opposed to 8. It seemed there was a slightly larger profit margin picking only 2 games.... I may have miscalculated? Just wondering if you had looked into running it that way previously?
thanks again

[therizz]

calculator with US odds

[ATTACH]26467[/ATTACH]

[playr101]

Thx therizz...

I did not know the correct formulas... got it now..

-playr101

[soldier1047]

Same train of thought..2 game parlay would give you a higher % of winning. Thoughts?

[playr101]

Still wondering if this is ok to play at one book? would they frown on that?

curious

-playr101

[trevlyn1983]

has anyone converted it to US yet ?