Snapper's MLB

[snapperman2]

STL -122, 1.22u
ATL -133, 1.33u
LAA -126, 1.26u
CWS u8.5, +101, 1u
BAL o10.5, -113, 1.13u

[snapperman2]

OAK -104, 1.04u
MIL u7.5, -128, 1.28u
FLA -108, 1.08u
STL u7.0, -102, 1.02u
STL -122, 1.22u
ATL -133, 1.33u
LAA -126, 1.26u
CWS u8.5, +101, 1u
BAL o10.5, -113, 1.13u

Record: 150-135, +17.53u, ROI=5.4%

[snapperman2]

CUB +118, 1u
ATL -145, 1.45u
ARI +149, 1u
CIN +129, 1u
SDG +135, 1u
BOS -227, 2.27u
KC +135, 1u
LAA +103, 1u
HOU o7.0, -107, 1.07u
ATL u7.0, -116, 1.16u
CLE u7.5, -115, 1.15u
TEX u11, -105, 1.05u

[snapperman2]

CUB +118, 1u
ATL -145, 1.45u
ARI +149, 1u
CIN +129, 1u
SDG +135, 1u
BOS -227, 2.27u
KC +135, 1u
LAA +103, 1u
HOU o7.0, -107, 1.07u
ATL u7.0, -116, 1.16u
CLE u7.5, -115, 1.15u
TEX u11, -105, 1.05u

Record: 157-140, +20.37u, ROI=6.0%

[snapperman2]

MIL -150, 1.5u
CHW -142, 1.42u
SEA o7.0, -123, 1.23u

[snapperman2]

WAS -138, 1.38u
PHI +123, 1u
CLE u8.5, -108, 1.08u
PIT u7.5, -133, 1.33u
STL u8.5, -109, 1.09u

[snapperman2]

MIL -150, 1.5u WON
CHW -142, 1.42u LOST
SEA o7.0, -123, 1.23u LOST
WAS -138, 1.38u WON
PHI +123, 1u LOST
CLE u8.5, -108, 1.08u WON
PIT u7.5, -133, 1.33u LOST
STL u8.5, -109, 1.09u LOST

Record: 160-145, +17.30u, ROI=4.9%

[snapperman2]

TB +171, 2u
CLE -105, 1.05u
WAS -107, 4.28u
HOU +125, 2u
TEX -133, 2.66u
MIL -113, 2.26u
ARI +122, 1u
SEA +171, 1u
NYM +141, 5u

[fitguy67]

snapper, i see that for the first time this season, you've started varying units...is this something you usually do once you have a better "take" on the team's form...or is this something new/experimental for you in your MLB...?

[snapperman2]

I started to use a new handicapping system today. It lends itself to varying bets based on the strength of the pick. So I started doing that. The new system didn't work well today, but I'll try it for at least a week or two before I give up on it.

[snapperman2]

TB +171, 2u
CLE -105, 1.05u
WAS -107, 4.28u
HOU +125, 2u
TEX -133, 2.66u
MIL -113, 2.26u
ARI +122, 1u
SEA +171, 1u
NYM +141, 5u

Record: 165-149, +14.66u, ROI=3.9%

[snapperman2]

WAS -131, 3.93u
PIT -131, 1.31u
CLE -113, 1.13u
TB +140, 2u
HOU +134, 1u
BOS -214, 2.14u
TEX -154, 3.08u
MIN +149, 1u
MIL -132, 2.64u
ARI +118, 2u
SD +113, 3u
NYM +125, 1u

[snapperman2]

COL o8.0, -116, 1.16u
NYY u9.0, -103, 1.03u
HOU o8.0, +100, 1u
BOS u8.5, -101, 1.01u
CIN o8.0, -113, 1.13u
SEA u7, -103, 1.03u
SD o6.5, -115, 1.15u

[snapperman2]

WAS -131, 3.93u
PIT -131, 1.31u
CLE -113, 1.13u
TB +140, 2u
HOU +134, 1u
BOS -214, 2.14u
TEX -154, 3.08u
MIN +149, 1u
MIL -132, 2.64u
ARI +118, 2u
SD +113, 3u
NYM +125, 1u
COL o8.0, -116, 1.16u
NYY u9.0, -103, 1.03u
HOU o8.0, +100, 1u
BOS u8.5, -101, 1.01u
CIN o8.0, -113, 1.13u
SEA u7, -103, 1.03u
SD o6.5, -115, 1.15u

Record: 174-156, +15.38u, ROI=3.8%

[snapperman2]

TB +107, 2u
PHI -152, 1.52u
MIN +134, 2u
SD +113, 3u
CLE -105, 1.05u
WAS +102, 3u
PIT -108, 2.16u
MIL -102, 3.06u
BOS -185, 1.85u
HOU +155, 1u
ARI +131, 2u
TEX -166, 3.32u
NYM +162, 1u

[snapperman2]

SF u6.5, -116, 1.16u

[snapperman2]

TB +107, 2u
PHI -152, 1.52u
MIN +134, 2u
SD +113, 3u
CLE -105, 1.05u
WAS +102, 3u
PIT -108, 2.16u
MIL -102, 3.06u
BOS -185, 1.85u
HOU +155, 1u
ARI +131, 2u
TEX -166, 3.32u
NYM +162, 1u
SF u6.5, -116, 1.16u

Record: 177-167, -2.41u, ROI=-0.6%

[fitguy67]

ever notice how "murphy's law" takes over whenever bet sized vary markedly...the winners are the one and twosies...while the losses are the big-baggers?... (i'm talking more about Thursday, Friday, and Satrurday's results than yesterday...)...(luckily for me, my "spidey sense kicked in when i saw the change--i've been burned enough by varying betsizes in the past, so i'm very suspicious of them <it's a disguized form of chasing to my mind>--so i continued following along the old-fashioned 1-unit-per-play way...good days won't be near as sweet, but bad days not near so bitter that way, cuz Murphy'll be left out of the picture...

just my very-appreciative few pesos

[snapperman2]

I read an interesting article online recently: http://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-...etting-market/. It explains why it is so hard to beat the current sports betting market. I've tried various line movement systems and comparing the odds at Pinnacle to that of square bookmakers to try to find the sharp bets, but nothing has worked reliably so far. I think I'll take a sabattical and try to work out some angles and track them for a while to see if they work before I post here again.

[fitguy67]

Snapper, I think you were doing just fine till you changed what you were doing just a few days ago. As a matter of fact, in the smooth-ride up a 5%-ish yield-curve department, you sir, along with ApricotSinner and BobLoblaw are the cream of the crop. In 60 days of actual posting plays (from Apr04 to May06, June02&03, and June09 to July04) till your recent change...assuming very conservative 1% flat plays...you were averaging a gain of about 0.3% gain on bank DAILY.

You placed 4.75plays (ie. 4.75% of bank risked) daily (285 plays over the 60 days=4.75). Your yield was 6% of all wagers (17.53units over roughly 285 units wagered=6% net gain all action). 6% of the 4.75% you are risking daily is very close to 0.3%...how can you beat that, snap? For a more standard-sized flat wager of 2%-per-play, we're talking about 0.6% gain daily.

Summary. What you've been doing all season, up till about a week ago not only "ain't broke"...it's terrific.

No need to go back to the drawing board...just go back to what you were doing before your recent urge to tinker with varied bet-sizes.

[fitguy67]

BTW, your chugging along daily with 6% yield on 4.75 plays daily means 156% return on bank anually for a super-chicken 1%-per-play flat bettor like me, or 312% for a more agressive 2%-player...