GOLDENGREEK's 2011 MLB SEASON LONG THREAD

[chevy6]

this thread is full of shit talkers and that takes away from the main goal which is making money. night after night its the same thing...greek post his plays..the same people come in and talk shit....games over people come in to hate again ....sick of it but i started to cap my own games and been ok at it

[goldengreek]

my mistake, last 5 weeks -50 units

last 5 weeks = -50 units

last 3 months = + 370 units


for nba:

Dingleberry or whever his username is :

-70 units nba playoffs ( i think he is way off by the way )

+1200 units full nba season november to april


play with the numbers all u want

positive is positive

[goldengreek]

i will take 33-11 any day of the week. I understand you are a value bettor but if a play loses all the value is out the window and it means nothing. If a play wins at a better rate than it loses then there is value there and people should bet accordingly. I dont think your understanding the point that if the bet wins people money than its a good bet no matter how you look at it , i dont understand how the fcuk you can argue that?!?

he isnt a bettor.. Let alone a value bettor

guy is to scared to lay $ 25 on a single game

all he does is get off talking shit but has no balls to post his plays or bet any real money

[HOT WINGS]

on days I wore blue shoes this batch of favorites i've been betting is 42-13! do yourself a favor and google sample size and variance. and while you're at it a spelling class

since i've come on here and been saying you're doing nothing but throwing darts you are down over 50 units. for a month you've been telling me to look at your april performance of +450 units or whatever and i've been saying it was just variance, well here we are 2 losing months later......

There is variance in gambling Wow never knew that captain obvious Why do you care so much? What is your agenda here? Why a poster name lord and master? Do you have people(not friends because its pretty obvious you have none) that think that high of you that they call you master? or are you just an arrogant pompous SOB??? Lord and master Greek I cant believe you even respond to this clown, but it is entertaining I must say.

[Lord and Master]

[B][SIZE=5]all he does is get off talking shit but has no balls to post his plays or bet any real money

you're right i'm betting candlesticks and lollipops

Why do you care so much?

i don't, greek seems to though

What is your agenda here?

to inform the naive and slay ignorance

Why a poster name lord and master?

because that is the only title that is appropriate

-Lord and Master

[BigDofBA]

Why does that one guy keep posting the NBA playoff record??

GG was money during the regular season and NBA is over anyway.

[gv12]

good luck tomorrow GG

[HOT WINGS]

I don't, greek seems to though


Why are you here then?


to inform the naive and slay ignorance

Shouldnt your name be lord and savior then??? Slay? You a battlefield nerd or something?

because that is the only title that is appropriate

-Lord and Master

WOW

[goldengreek]

Again.... Lord of all masterbaters refuses to respond to my posts

[Lord and Master]

Again.... Lord and Master refuses to respond to my posts

what did I miss that you would like me to address?

-Lord and Master

[BigDan]

the guy never once says anything about getting the line early, just spouting out a record of how it works. after me pointing out over and over that an arbitrage does not work if you bet it after the price has corrected, he now makes a point to say bet it now. i'm glad he learned how an arbitrage actually works

In all fairness my man, ive been playing them early ever since he turned me on to them, i really dont see how it is on him when ppl play them, honestly i dont even look in here for them cause i can find them myself and bet them. Far as im concerned that works for me. Im sure others appreciate him putting them up then they can do what they choose, but bashing a guy for posting something that makes sense because you are assuming things about him is crazy.

As smart as you are i would think you would know where assumptions get you.


Ive talked to GG few times over the years about col hoops and id be pretty surprised if he wasnt betting them early, not sure why it his responsibility to hold ppls hands thru the process. Isnt it enough that he shares the info?

I mean you wont even post your brilliant moves but bashing a guy for sharing something because the way he goes about telling ppl? No disrespect but that seems a little upity, arrogant, cowardly, i dont know i couldnt put it all in one word and still got some more but you get the point i would think.

i just dont see the point here, so much time wasted when better things could be being accomplished. You could be a very solid poster if you wernt so busy assuming you were the only smart one in the room, tru there a lot of not so smart but no reason to come off the way you do. Kinda like a snot nosed college kid after his 1st semester and thinks he knows it all cause the few books he read and some shit a professor told him.

Why dont we just move past this shit and get to the business at hand.

[jbart28]

LORD of MASTERBATORS

You need to start posting your plays or STFU IMO!!!!!!!!!

Do you agree to start your own thread NOW and begin posting your picks beginning TODAY?????????

If you do not achieve a positive expectation for the month of JULY, do you agree to leave this thread forever?

I know you will not agree to this since you are weak and inferior to GG plus you have a complex regarding FAILURE-

LORD OF MASTERBATORS CHANCES OF ACCEPTING

YES -- + Paying off National Debt
No-- $ 1 Trillion Zimbabwe Dollars


You are CLOAKED IN FAILURE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTFJocQBLyE

[Lord and Master]

Do you agree to start your own thread NOW and begin posting your picks beginning TODAY?????????

No i sure don't. as i've said over and over and over, i will not give out the results of my hard work when there is nothing for me to gain. i do not care to prove anything to anyone, i do this to make money and that's all i care about. every single person on this board could be convinced that i lose every single bet and i couldn't care less. I just don't care in the slightest what people here think of my capability, that should be pretty obvious by now.

You are CLOAKED IN FAILURE

wow there is some strong emotion behind those words, lowercase wasn't enough, CAPS TOO!!! i'm amazed at how much emotion i inspire on here

-Lord and Master

[BigDan]

No i sure don't. as i've said over and over and over, i will not give out the results of my hard work when there is nothing for me to gain. i do not care to prove anything to anyone, i do this to make money and that's all i care about. every single person on this board could be convinced that i lose every single bet and i couldn't care less. I just don't care in the slightest what people here think of my capability, that should be pretty obvious by now.



-Lord and Master

Seems you really want ppl to believe you are smarter than them but you dont wanna prove anything? I mean this is kinda what the forum was always about to me, not to be a sheep and tail (no offense to the sheep), or to knock other ppl cause you got nothing better to do, or to become the man and have followers, but to actually share thoughts and opinions on a fukkin game!

If you not doing that (in all fairness i have caught you doing that once or twice, doubt in here but i dont come in this thread a lot, to much craziness and i have to post something then). then why bother post, to act like a ass? kinda sad if ya ask me.

[Lord and Master]

Im sure others appreciate him putting them up then they can do what they choose, but bashing a guy for posting something that makes sense because you are assuming things about him is crazy.

Here's the problem, i've said it a million times but apparently i wasn't clear: GREEK CLAIMS THAT THE PINNY PLAYS WILL BE PROFITABLE AFTER THE MARKET HAS CORRECTED THE ARBITRAGE. THIS IS ABSURD. it is no longer an arbitrage if the price gap has closed! jesus christ this is so simple but flying way over everyone's head. the fact that the price was once arbitrageable does not mean it will still be profitable after the price gap has closed. that's just a completely irrational notion. betting arbitrages after they are corrected is no different from throwing darts. greek does not understand that because he's claiming they are still profitable if you bet them at the corrected number. it's complete nonsense

I mean you wont even post your brilliant moves

see my post above this one

but bashing a guy for sharing something because the way he goes about telling ppl?

he's convincing people that a strategy is profitable and different from arbitrarily picking games. i'm going to repeat: Just because a game was once able to be arbitraged does not mean it will be still profitable to bet after the arbitrage has closed

if anyone is still confused please lookup the definition of arbitrage. that is what these pinny plays are supposed to be(if you want them to be profitable)

[Lord and Master]

Seems you really want ppl to believe you are smarter than them but you dont wanna prove anything?

i'll repeat, again: I do not care what people think, whether they think i'm dumb or intelligent, sharp or sqaure

but to actually share thoughts and opinions on a fukkin game!

I do this people just don't like what I have to say because I may disagree with them or what I'm saying just goes way over their head

then why bother post

i hope to one day engage in an intelligent discussion, which around here is about as likely as hitting the lottery. in the meantime i'm going to keep trying. hopefully someone learns a thing or two

to act like a ass? kinda sad if ya ask me.

you are the decider of your own perceptions

[BigDan]

Here's the problem, i've said it a million times but apparently i wasn't clear: GREEK CLAIMS THAT THE PINNY PLAYS WILL BE PROFITABLE AFTER THE MARKET HAS CORRECTED THE ARBITRAGE. THIS IS ABSURD. it is no longer an arbitrage if the price gap has closed! jesus christ this is so simple but flying way over everyone's head. the fact that the price was once arbitrageable does not mean it will still be profitable after the price gap has closed. that's just a completely irrational notion. betting arbitrages after they are corrected is no different from throwing darts. greek does not understand that because he's claiming they are still profitable if you bet them at the corrected number. it's complete nonsense



see my post above this one



he's convincing people that a strategy is profitable and different from arbitrarily picking games. i'm going to repeat: Just because a game was once able to arbitraged does not mean it will be still profitable to bet after the arbitrage has closed

if anyone is still confused please lookup the definition of arbitrage

Never saw that, like i said i try not to pay to much attention in here.


Like i said i play them ealry and not much that gets said around gambling forum world is over my head. As much as some ppl would like to believe otherwise (i like being underestimated).

GL everyone. Have fun with the e-war, hope it brings lots of satisfaction to y'all

[Lord and Master]

ok i found a good analogy. betting pinny plays after the market has corrected to the pinnacle price is no different than, for example, having inside information that apple is going to buy google, and then buying apple stock AFTER the news has become public SOLELY based on the fact that you knew apple was buying google before it was public knowledge. Your edge has evaporated because you didn't act before the news came out and you bought after the market priced in the information. That information is no longer relevant now that the market has priced in that apple is buying google. Just like the market will have adjusted to the pinnacle price. does this make it any easier to understand?

[hardball]

on days I wore blue shoes this batch of favorites i've been betting is 42-13! do yourself a favor and google sample size and variance. and while you're at it a spelling class

since i've come on here and been saying you're doing nothing but throwing darts you are down over 50 units. for a month you've been telling me to look at your april performance of +450 units or whatever and i've been saying it was just variance, well here we are 2 losing months later......

Here we go again with your community college class regurgitation...

450 units is not standard variance L & M..... that's as close to maximum absolute deviation as you can get....

If you were to decipher the probability of being up 450 units through April in an inefficient market, it's an interesting number.

Sweet Jesus, your understanding of the guiding mathematical principals is decent..... but don't blast other people based on your bachelor level understanding of your financial class.

Especially when the poster has not even come close to regressing towards the mean.

Sometime, somewhere, I'd love to debate the inefficient market of totals with you. I was on the other side of the Cardinals game tonight. Tough loss for you.

[twelvejewelz]

i'll repeat, again: I do not care what people think, whether they think i'm dumb or intelligent, sharp or sqaure I do this people just don't like what I have to say because I may disagree with them or what I'm saying just goes way over their head i hope to one day engage in an intelligent discussion, which around here is about as likely as hitting the lottery. in the meantime i'm going to keep trying. hopefully someone learns a thing or two you are the decider of your own perceptions

your like the fuckin retard back in highschool that we used to roll up in the carpet and kick and spit on but still follow everyone around trying to be friends and now you come online to cause problems because you have no life. We all know what arbitrage means and we dont care wtf you have to say that is the whole point. The fact is his pinny plays are 33-11 so no matter when you played them you would be up $$... You can take advantage of a better # at other books and you could go 11-33 right? but that is not the case they are winning bets, jesus christ.

[Broken-Ear Glen]

i hope to one day engage in an intelligent discussion, which around here is about as likely as hitting the lottery. in the meantime i'm going to keep trying. hopefully someone learns a thing or two

Well if it's as likely as hitting the lottery why don't you just join another forum because literally everyone on this site hates you. You honestly provide nothing to this thread.

[R23k]

Must have clicked the wrong thread. Thought this was a baseball thread

[Donkwin47]

Yo GG, just thought I'd chime in and say thank you for all that you do. You're a hell of a capper and I LOVE the "Pinny plays"...

I'd also like to throw it out there that for ever 1 prick that posts dumbass comments and contributes nothing, there are plenty of posters who appreciate all that you do, and for every one of those posters, there are probably 10 people who aren't registered users that check your thread all the time.. I mean look at the views..

Also, I love how you just ream the haters, straight up.. Most people ignore them (or try to) or let the haters get the best of them, get in their heads, and drive them to stop posting, ruining it for everyone else (wouldn't be shocked if they were out to help the books).. But I love how you just fire right back at em n laugh in their faces with confidence and swagger like a fuggin champion.

Keep crushin, bro.

[Lord and Master]

450 units is not standard variance L & M..... that's as close to maximum absolute deviation as you can get....

if each bet were a unit, you'd be right but that number is inflated as bets are usually 5-10 units.

If you were to decipher the probability of being up 450 units through April in an inefficient market, it's an interesting number.

does it make any difference to you, or your opinion of luck versus skill when the vehicle behind that profit is qualitative information(all of which is priced in already) that is then used to "pick a side"? versus quantifying that and coming up with a probability that a certain team will win the game and betting based on that probability that you have come up with(which greek does not)

Especially when the poster has not even come close to regressing towards the mean.

i ask you this: do you believe it's possible to be SHARPER than pinnacle by doing the following: betting 80% of games, "choosing a side" as opposed to betting based on the discrepancy between your implied probability and pinnacle's, and using information that is already priced in?

Sometime, somewhere, I'd love to debate the inefficient market of totals with you. I was on the other side of the Cardinals game tonight. Tough loss for you.

That was an interesting situation, it was more borderline than I will usually bet and Matsuz made it a little more unique. I'm still not sure whether I was right or wrong, to be honest I have no idea. I think it probably would've taken a really thorough analysis of Matusz to find the right side(if there even was one in this game) but unfortunately i don't model the games nor do that level of analysis on pitchers in his category(little ml experience combined with possibly a concrete change in mechanics or ability year to year) so that was beyond my capability. what made you take the over? do you model or was it something Matusz specific?

[thedrifter]

All I care about is reading about what the plays are for the day and discussing that. Lord Master guy is completely F'ing this thread and forum... can someone please ban him and all these other donkeys?

Making it really hard to look at this thread with all this BS.

[Lord and Master]

your like the fuckin retard back in highschool that we used to roll up in the carpet and kick and spit on but still follow everyone around trying to be friends.

awww it sounds like someone wishes that high school was a predictor was of success in life

[twelvejewelz]

I'm still not sure whether I was right or wrong, to be honest I have no idea. .... awww it sounds like someone wishes that high school was a predictor was of success in life

No i would just like to roll you up in the carpet and kick and spit on you thats all. Im quite successful owning a company at 29 making 90k since february in my sports betting hobby and alittle less than that last year betting. Your obviously a leech and a troll with no life. You must live a sad pathetic existence to have to come in here day in and day out acting like a know it all its really pathetic. You were wrong your bet lost , pick a side , the right side idiot.

[BigDan]

if each bet were a unit, you'd be right but that number is inflated as bets are usually 5-10 units.



does it make any difference to you, or your opinion of luck versus skill when the vehicle behind that profit is qualitative information(all of which is priced in already) that is then used to "pick a side"? versus quantifying that and coming up with a probability that a certain team will win the game and betting based on that probability that you have come up with(which greek does not)



i ask you this: do you believe it's possible to be SHARPER than pinnacle by doing the following: betting 80% of games, "choosing a side" as opposed to betting based on the discrepancy between your implied probability and pinnacle's, and using information that is already priced in?



That was an interesting situation, it was more borderline than I will usually bet and Matsuz made it a little more unique. I'm still not sure whether I was right or wrong, to be honest I have no idea. I think it probably would've taken a really thorough analysis of Matusz to find the right side(if there even was one in this game) but unfortunately i don't model the games nor do that level of analysis on pitchers in his category(little ml experience combined with possibly a concrete change in mechanics or ability year to year) so that was beyond my capability. what made you take the over? do you model or was it something Matusz specific?

If you couldnt see the signs that Garcia would get hit by 5th along with the fact Matusz hasnt had shit for velocity on his fastball not to mention how few holes stl lineup has right now you wouldnt even have thought about the under for long.

But you so fukkin smart, break that down into little quotes and tell me how none of that mattered.

[iGotWinners]

Okay, that's enough of this Lord and Master BS, b/c here's the solution to our L&M (he's arrogant, and doesn't prove anything, but we know he really does follow goldengreek's picks, he's just hiding it behind his smart ass posts) problem, GG and EVERYONE just add lord and master to your ignore list. I can't believe we put up with his BS for so long, and this way whatever his god like mind that he thinks he has doesn't even show up, and we'll just carry on with business without his annoying posts. And, the same thing can be done with other posters. SBR, we need the ability to ban certain posters from certain threads. GL to everyone and hopefully this is the last we hear of him, and please no one reply to lord and master who is ignored from now on.

Edit: Oh, he also goes by another ghost account named clairvoyance, and who knows how many other ghosts accts he has. Peace.

[Lord and Master]

If you couldnt see the signs that Garcia would get hit by 5th

home runs given up are luck, the vast majority of pitchers revert to the league average of % of flyballs that go for home runs(I think its about 9.5% right now). There are a few exceptions(lincecum, sabathia, mariano) but Garcia giving up a 3 run bomb does not mean he pitched bad. Things that would indicate how well he pitched would be factors that he directly controls such as strike/ball ratio, walks, strikeouts, and flyball %....Most people would think Shields didn't pitch a good game against the reds yesterday giving up 4 earned. He actually was spectacular. He was striking out batters at nearly a 13 Ks/9 rate(the league lead right now is under 12) and walking them at under 3 per 9. He also had a 66% first strike percentage, a swing strike % of over 20%, and a 2:1 strike/ball ratio. If he could do that every game he would be the best pitcher in the league

along with the fact Matusz hasnt had shit for velocity on his fastball not to mention how few holes stl lineup has right now you wouldnt even have thought about the under for long.

ok so the line was over 9 +105 and under 9 -116. That puts the true line at over 9 +110/under 9 -110. So true odds of the over hitting(+110) was 47.6%. Given those factors that you listed, what was your opinion of the true % of the over hitting? Did those factors make it 49%? 50%? Or did you just find a few things that would indicate runs will be scored easily and then just pick the over? Because the latter won't result in beating the vig

[LordCC]

Greek,

How is your mom doing?

[BigDan]

home runs given up are luck, the vast majority of pitchers revert to the league average of % of flyballs that go for home runs(I think its about 9.5% right now). There are a few exceptions(lincecum, sabathia, mariano) but Garcia giving up a 3 run bomb does not mean he pitched bad. Things that would indicate how well he pitched would be factors that he directly controls such as strike/ball ratio, walks, strikeouts, and flyball %



ok so the line was under 9 -116 and over 9 +105. That puts the true line at over 9 -110/under 9 +110. So true odds of the over hitting(-110) was 52.4%. Given those factors that you listed, what was your opinion of the true % of the over hitting? Did those factors make it 53%? 54%? Or did you just find a few things that would indicate runs will be scored easily and then just pick the over? Because the latter won't result in beating the vig

i didnt play over, couldnt because i agree with what you just said, and yes i understand the hr numbers but just dont see how you could play under with so many factors working against you. Forget the hr, it was earlier than i expected but Garcia has been showing bad signs and being terribly inefficient, no way he was getting thru 6 imo, wasnt sure what the pen would bring but in the end i stayed square and homer, played stl-1.5 when i got notes about Matusz velocity.

[Fernburn74]

thanks GG for the under pick in HOUSTON game

1000 parley payed 2600 tonight !!!!

THANK YOU and keep up the great work!!!!!

dont listen to the loser ! loser talk shit if they were winners like you they wouldnt have time to talk shit cause they would to busy winning!!!!!!

BURN BABY BURN!!!!!!

[Lord and Master]

btw i mixed up lines on over/under before you posted, i corrected them above.

yes i understand the hr numbers but just dont see how you could play under with so many factors working against you.

because all those "factors" are already priced into the line. i'm not able to quantify them better than pinnacle and be able to say that pinnacle is wrong about the over hitting 47.6% of the time. those factors that point to runs being scored easily are great, but unless they lead to me a specific probability of the game going over 9 by more than pinnacle's 47.6% of the time(plus the vig) I can't bet the over and be profitable.

Forget the hr, it was earlier than i expected but Garcia has been showing bad signs and being terribly inefficient

you need to find a way to quantify this and have it come up an expected run probability otherwise knowing this will not lead to profitable bets. i'm not in any way saying it's wrong or not relevant, just that it's useless if you are betting the over based on that opinion.

btw the point of all this being that its nice and all to think that if you do real in depth, detailed analysis of games you can win at sports betting. but in reality, if you are coming up with an opinion and then "picking a side" as opposed to coming up with a specific probability you just will not win in the long run. Being EXTREMELY knowledgable about a sport and being a winning bettor at that sport are two entirely different animals

[BigJuicy]

Hi GG im new here. what is the meaning of "number*" in your pick?