Dolphan34's Season Long Baseball

[dolphan34]

Hate betting this many games, but I couldn't decide which ones to drop.

4/8

Mets -143 Risking 3% to win 2.1%
Home opener for Mets with a better pitcher. Nationals are a weak road team.

White Sox -136 Risking 3% to win 2.21%
Maybe my least favorite play. Pitching advantage goes to Rays and Rays have been a strong road team in the past, but they show little sign of getting out of the slump they are in so gonna keep fading them.

Mariners -116 Risking 3% to win 2.59%
Significant pitching advantage to Mariners who are at home. They Ms have also been hitting well, but not really translating into a lot of runs. I'm a little surprised how low this line is, but I never overthink lines.

Braves -103 Risking 3% to win 2.91%
Braves are one, if not the, best home teams in baseball. Pitching matchup is maybe a slight edge to Philly and the bats probably favor Philly a bit, but you can't underestimate the home field.

Astros +104 Risking 3% to win 3.12%
Wandy is a really solid pitcher year in and out. Hopefully his first game was just a fluke.

Cubs +109 Risking 3% to win 3.27%
I think the Cubs have a significant pitching advantage here. They are also not too shabby on the road. The Brewers have won a couple games now, but by slim margins.

Yankees +113 Risking 3% to win 3.39%
Yankees have the better pitcher and are batting better right now then the Red Sox. Only advantage here for Sox is home field, but this is still a very easy call for me.

[dolphan34]

4/8
Mets -143 Risking 3% to win 2.1%
White Sox -136 Risking 3% to win 2.21%
Mariners -116 Risking 3% to win 2.59%
Braves -103 Risking 3% to win 2.91%
Astros +104 Risking 3% to win 3.12%
Cubs +109 Risking 3% to win 3.27%
Yankees +113 Risking 3% to win 3.39%

Not much to say. Kinda figured I was going to get buried one of these days. Hopefully now I can make myself stick to my rules of no more than 5 plays and ideally closer to 3.

4/8: 2-5 -8.82%

Overall: 29-19 +26.93%

[dolphan34]

Hopefully a bounceback is in order. Don't have time for explanations of the picks at the moment.

4/9
Pirates -108 Risking 3% to win 2.78%
Marlins -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Twins -104 Risking 3% to win 2.89%
Cardinals +139 Risking 3% to win 4.17%
Royals +163 Risking 3% to win 4.89%

[BigMama]

great day for all

[dolphan34]

Hopefully a bounceback is in order. Don't have time for explanations of the picks at the moment.

4/9
Pirates -108 Risking 3% to win 2.78%
Marlins -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Twins -104 Risking 3% to win 2.89%
Cardinals +139 Risking 3% to win 4.17%
Royals +163 Risking 3% to win 4.89%

That Cardinals loss was disgusting. Definitely the worst loss of the year for me, but there will be worse. Hope to be on the otherside sometime.

4/9: 2-3 -1.25%

Overall: 31-22 +25.68%

[dolphan34]

Going kind of big on Yankees. Very square and there is Sunday Night Baseball home team advantage, but I just can't resist.

4/10

Yankees -113 Risking 5% to win 4.43%
Braves -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Angels -1 RL -122 Risking 3% to win 2.45%
Brewers -1 RL -123 Risking 3% to win 2.43%

[dolphan34]

Adding 2% more on Yankees. If Yankees lose people will get buried, myself included, but it just seems too good to pass up.

Yankees -118 Risking 2% to win 1.69%

[dolphan34]

Going kind of big on Yankees. Very square and there is Sunday Night Baseball home team advantage, but I just can't resist.

4/10

Yankees -113 Risking 5% to win 4.43%
Braves -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Angels -1 RL -122 Risking 3% to win 2.45%
Brewers -1 RL -123 Risking 3% to win 2.43% PUSH

Adding 2% more on Yankees. If Yankees lose people will get buried, myself included, but it just seems too good to pass up.

Yankees -118 Risking 2% to win 1.69%

Got torched today and I deserved it. Went way too big on a road favorite on Sunday Night Baseball. Think it is time to rethink my strategy. Baseball has been going on for over a week now so the urge to bet a lot of games has worn off. Going to aim for 3 plays a day now.

4/10: 1-2 -7.55%

Overall: 32-24 +18.13%

[dolphan34]

4/11

Blue Jays +150 Risking 3% to win 4.5%
Astros +115 Risking 3% to win 3.45%
Diamondbacks +105 Risking 3% to win 3.15%

[dolphan34]

4/11

Blue Jays +150 Risking 3% to win 4.5%
Astros +115 Risking 3% to win 3.45%
Diamondbacks +105 Risking 3% to win 3.15%

Heartbreaking loss on Blue Jays. Just gonna stick with it doing a couple of plays a day and see what happens I suppose. After the Cardinals loss two days ago and this one, I'm feeling pretty bad.


4/11: 0-3 -9%

Overall: 32-27 +9.13%

[dolphan34]

Maybe I will start a chase system that inevitably ends in me losing my bankroll, but at least it takes the thinking out of it for me.

[dolphan34]

Like both of these a lot. Let's see what happens. Probably some decent fade material.

4/12
Nationals +113 Risking 3% to win 3.33%
Astros -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%

[dolphan34]

Like both of these a lot. Let's see what happens. Probably some decent fade material.

4/12
Nationals +113 Risking 3% to win 3.33%
Astros -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%

I needed this. Slowly gonna make my way back to where I was.

4/12: 2-0 +5.94%

Overall: 34-27 +15.07%

[dolphan34]

Not in love with either of these plays, but they seem to be the best on the board.

4/13
Diamondbacks -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Mets -112 Risking 3% to win 2.68%

[dolphan34]

Not in love with either of these plays, but they seem to be the best on the board.

4/13
Diamondbacks -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Mets -112 Risking 3% to win 2.68%

Back to the grind tomorrow.

4/13: 0-2 -6%

Overall: 34-29 +9.07%

[dolphan34]

4/14

Athletics -144 Risking 3% to win 2.09%
Nationals +1.5 RL -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%

[devself1]

Have you looked at the Pirates? I'm liking them today.
Don't worry about the recent bad luck, you'll get it all back!

[devself1]

Also, I like the Rockies in Game 2. De La Rosa vs Capuano. Rockies are 5-1 away. Mets are 1-4 home (those records are without Game 1 of the day in the books)

[devself1]

Also the Padres vs Astros, I'm liking the Padres. Just in case you're looking for some more small plays on the side...

[dolphan34]

Also, I like the Rockies in Game 2. De La Rosa vs Capuano. Rockies are 5-1 away. Mets are 1-4 home (those records are without Game 1 of the day in the books)

Good call on this one. Rockies are doing great on the road so far.

4/14

Athletics -144 Risking 3% to win 2.09%
Nationals +1.5 RL -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%

Obviously struggling bad right now. Will do one play for the remaining 3.07% gain and then evaluate tomorrow whether I want to just throw in the towel on bases and wait for football, keep doing baseball as I have been or else do some kind of absurd chase to burn up the rest of the bankroll.

4/14: 0-2 -6%

Overall: 34-31 +3.07%

[dolphan34]

4/15
Reds -167 Risking 3.07% to win 1.86%

[devself1]

Pirates can't hit at all... I thought for sure they could pull it out. I should have played the under on that one. The padres was one that looked good, but I should have known better.

The Reds I'm not sure about. Arroyo gives up hits. I understand the Pirates can't hit, but Arroyo gave up 6 hits to Mil and 8 hits to Ariz. Pit's pitcher, Morton, gave up 3 hits to the Cardinals, and 5 to Col. So if anything it will be a very close game, and I can see Pit possibly pulling it off. Too close for me to bet on.

I like the Angels today with Weaver against the White Sox. Weaver is 3-0 with 0.87 ERA. He's facing Phillip Humber who isn't a bad pitcher himself, but hasn't started too many games in his career and the Angels have some bats. Weaver is too strong and I expect another low scoring game here.

I also like the Tigers and A's over 8 (that's what I got the line at last night), Brewers to win behind Narveson and facing Gorzelanny (8.44 ERA), O's and Indians UNDER 8 in a pitching matchup, and the Phillies. I actually took all of them in a parlay and laid a $1.91 to win $28.20. Not too bad if it hits, and not a bad loss if it doesn't...