Dolphan34's Season Long Baseball

[dolphan34]

Decided to start this thread for tracking my MLB plays. I ended last year up quite a bit and kept track of my plays in Excel. I got my best results only doing a few plays a day and keeping my unit size almost the same for all bets. I'm not a big better like some of you. I just do this for fun and try my best to pick winners. Because I'm not risking my home on a given bet I feel like I am a lot more level headed than most here.

1) Going to do my best to keep number of plays down. 1-3 on most days.
2) No juice higher than -200
3) Plays are Risk bets, never To Win
4) Rather than using units, I will be doing percentages based on my starting bankroll so it will be easier to follow instead of units, which can really mean anything.
5) I will usually bet 3% of my starting bankroll on a play, but depending on how much I like it, could go from 1%-10%
6) All of the lines I use are 5Dimes

Good luck everyone!

[dolphan34]

Favorite play is Dodgers. Best of luck all.

3/31
Dodgers -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Yankees -142 Risking 3% to win 2.11%

[dolphan34]

MLB: 2-0 +4.97%

Got the season started off well. Will post tomorrow's plays later tonight.

[dolphan34]

Gonna be playing a lot more games today then I would like, but it is early in the season and I'm excited. Favorite pick is probably Atheltics.

Rangers +111 Risking 3% to win 3.33%
Athletics -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Cubs -167 Risking 3% to win 1.79%
Twins +118 Risking 3% to win 3.54%
Royals +126 Risking 3% to win 3.78%
Rays RL +115 Risking 3% to win 3.45%

[dolphan34]

Not looking like a great day so far. 1-1 split. Going to add one for tonight.

Dodgers -120 Risking 3% to win 2.5%

[dolphan34]

Gonna be playing a lot more games today then I would like, but it is early in the season and I'm excited. Favorite pick is probably Atheltics.

Rangers +111 Risking 3% to win 3.33%
Athletics -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Cubs -167 Risking 3% to win 1.79%
Twins +118 Risking 3% to win 3.54%
Royals +126 Risking 3% to win 3.78%
Rays RL +115 Risking 3% to win 3.45%

Not looking like a great day so far. 1-1 split. Going to add one for tonight.

Dodgers -120 Risking 3% to win 2.5%

Rough day. Bet too many games.

4/1: 3-4 -2.39%

Overall: 5-4 2.58%

[dolphan34]

4/2
Mets +131 Risking 3% to win 3.93%
Rangers -111 Risking 3% to win 2.70%
Yankees RL +131 Risking 3% to win 3.93%
Cubs -175 Risking 3% to win 1.71%

[dolphan34]

Adding

Braves -127 Risking 2% to win 1.57%

[dolphan34]

4/2
Mets +131 Risking 3% to win 3.93%
Rangers -111 Risking 3% to win 2.70%
Yankees RL +131 Risking 3% to win 3.93%
Cubs -175 Risking 3% to win 1.71%

Adding

Braves -127 Risking 2% to win 1.57%

4/2: 4-1 +10.27%

Overall: 9-5 +12.85%

[dolphan34]

Really like today's games so I will probably do bad. Florida is probably my favorite pick.

4/3
Marlins -131 Risking 3% to win 2.29%
Red Sox -132 Risking 3% to win 2.27%
Royals -107 Risking 3% to win 2.81%
Rockies RL +122 Risking 3% to win 3.66%

Pirates +163 Risking 2% to win 3.26%
Tigers +148 Risking 2% to win 2.96%

[dolphan34]

Really like today's games so I will probably do bad. Florida is probably my favorite pick.

4/3
Marlins -131 Risking 3% to win 2.29%
Red Sox -132 Risking 3% to win 2.27%
Royals -107 Risking 3% to win 2.81%
Rockies RL +122 Risking 3% to win 3.66%

Pirates +163 Risking 2% to win 3.26%
Tigers +148 Risking 2% to win 2.96%

Decent day. Really disappointed in the Marlins.


4/3: 3-2 +3.03%

Overall: 12-7 +15.88%

[dolphan34]

4/4
Braves -102 Risking 2% to win 1.96%

[dolphan34]

Adding

Cubs -153 Risking 3% to win 1.96%
Rangers -1RL -111 Risking 3% to win 2.7%

[dolphan34]

Adding

Cubs -153 Risking 3% to win 1.96%
Rangers -1RL -111 Risking 3% to win 2.7%

4/4
Braves -102 Risking 2% to win 1.96%

4/4: 2-0 +3.92%


Pending: Rangers -1RL -111 Risking 3% to win 2.7%


Overall: 14-7 +19.8%

[dolphan34]

4/4
Braves -102 Risking 2% to win 1.96%

Adding

Cubs -153 Risking 3% to win 1.96%
Rangers -1RL -111 Risking 3% to win 2.7%

Good day.

4/4: 3-0 +6.62%

Overall: 15-7 +22.5%

[dolphan34]

Lot of wagers for tomorrow. Probably a bad idea. Lot of dogs that I like.

Angels -101 Risking 3% to win 2.97%
Brewers -122 Risking 2.5% to win 2.23%
Marlins -154 Risking 2% to win 1.3%
Diamondbacks +142 Risking 2% to win 2.84%
Twins +195 Risking 2% to win 3.9%
Indians +144 Risking 2% to win 2.88%
Mariners +151 Risking 2% to win 3.02%
Royals +109 Risking 2% to win 2.18%

[dolphan34]

4/5
Adding
Blue Jays RL -1 +123 Risking 2% to win 2.45%

[dolphan34]

Getting shelled. Might as well add one more.

Rockies -106 Risking 2% to win 1.89%

[dolphan34]

Getting shelled. Might as well add one more.

Rockies -106 Risking 2% to win 1.89%

4/5
Adding
Blue Jays RL -1 +123 Risking 2% to win 2.45%- PUSH

Lot of wagers for tomorrow. Probably a bad idea. Lot of dogs that I like.

Angels -101 Risking 3% to win 2.97%
Brewers -122 Risking 2.5% to win 2.23%
Marlins -154 Risking 2% to win 1.3%
Diamondbacks +142 Risking 2% to win 2.84%
Twins +195 Risking 2% to win 3.9%
Indians +144 Risking 2% to win 2.88%
Mariners +151 Risking 2% to win 3.02%
Royals +109 Risking 2% to win 2.18%

Absolute monster day. I had no business making a profit at all, but got some huge really close wins. Picking 10 games a day is a terrible idea, but I got pretty lucky. Really happy with the Twins pick at +195. Going to try a lot harder to narrow it down to 5 tops tomorrow and ideally less than that.

4/5: 7-2 +13.35%

Overall: 22-9 +35.85%

[dolphan34]

I said I would start picking fewer games after yesterday and today made it easy for me with only a couple I like. I do really like these three picks, but feel I am due for a bad day. Might add one more later on, but here is what I got now. Favorite pick is Rockies.

4/6
Rockies -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%
Royals -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Twins +147 Risking 3% to win 4.41%

[devself1]

Wow, doing great! Keep it up. Going to tail for awhile to see if I can share the profit! How do you make your picks? Do you do research or go with your gut?

[dolphan34]

Wow, doing great! Keep it up. Going to tail for awhile to see if I can share the profit! How do you make your picks? Do you do research or go with your gut?

Thanks a lot for the kind words. If you do tail, I would urge you to bet small. I think making your own picks is a lot more fun and you won't be as frustrated as you will blindly tailing someone. I would look at the games yourself first and see if there are any you really like and then compare your picks to a capper you like. If the two of you have some picks that line up definitely bet those.

I always do research. Probably same method for picking as most anyone else looking at pitchers and hot streaks. I put a lot of weight on home field and if teams are good or bad home and road teams.

Dodgers/Rockies is a good example of this. Dodgers pitcher is probably a little better, but last year Rockies had 52 wins at home and Dodgers only had 35 road wins.

Yankees are a good home team too with 52 wins, but Twins are pretty solid on the road, 41 wins. I think Twins have a much better pitcher and so if I capped this game I would maybe say Twins +120 so the line being at +147 has some good value.

Royals...I watch all their games and try to look at them objectively, but I am definitely a little biased. I know most people don't bet on their favorite team, but I bet for fun and so I have no problem with it. I have had great luck betting on them so far seeing as they are 4-1, but realistically this won't last. Tail these plays at your own risk.

Good luck.

[agrippa]

Decided to start this thread for tracking my MLB plays. I ended last year up quite a bit and kept track of my plays in Excel. I got my best results only doing a few plays a day and keeping my unit size almost the same for all bets. I'm not a big better like some of you. I just do this for fun and try my best to pick winners. Because I'm not risking my home on a given bet I feel like I am a lot more level headed than most here.

1) Going to do my best to keep number of plays down. 1-3 on most days.
2) No juice higher than -200
3) Plays are Risk bets, never To Win
4) Rather than using units, I will be doing percentages based on my starting bankroll so it will be easier to follow instead of units, which can really mean anything.
5) I will usually bet 3% of my starting bankroll on a play, but depending on how much I like it, could go from 1%-10%
6) All of the lines I use are 5Dimes

Good luck everyone!

Hello and thank you for posting your plays.
Would you mind telling what your record was last season?
Thanks in advance.

[devself1]

Yeah, I look at pitching matchups mostly. I've never looked into homefield advantage and good road teams. That's a good idea. I do bet small, so that is a good thing, but I have a parlay addiction that I can't kick, so I always lose even my small bets. haha.

The Royals? That's what I'm talking about! I'm a huge Royals and Chiefs fan. I road the Royals through Spring Training this year and am happy I did! Alex Gordon had a great spring and is having a good start to the year. I like the Melky signing and I read an article about him stating how he slimmed down, and he's taking the game seriously now. Not sure about Francouer. I'm not a big fan. We still need some pitchers, but with a week in, Crow and Collins look good from the pen. Francis had a great first start. Hopefully we can make a little noise this year and compete! Look out for Billy and Kila too. They're on my fantasy team and I think they'll have great seasons too!

[dolphan34]

Hello and thank you for posting your plays.
Would you mind telling what your record was last season?
Thanks in advance.

I don't have exact wins/losses numbers since I lost my spreadsheet, but I had a little over doubled my bankroll at one point. Ended the year at about +60% of my starting money though.

Yeah, I look at pitching matchups mostly. I've never looked into homefield advantage and good road teams. That's a good idea. I do bet small, so that is a good thing, but I have a parlay addiction that I can't kick, so I always lose even my small bets. haha.

The Royals? That's what I'm talking about! I'm a huge Royals and Chiefs fan. I road the Royals through Spring Training this year and am happy I did! Alex Gordon had a great spring and is having a good start to the year. I like the Melky signing and I read an article about him stating how he slimmed down, and he's taking the game seriously now. Not sure about Francouer. I'm not a big fan. We still need some pitchers, but with a week in, Crow and Collins look good from the pen. Francis had a great first start. Hopefully we can make a little noise this year and compete! Look out for Billy and Kila too. They're on my fantasy team and I think they'll have great seasons too!

That is awesome. Love the Chiefs too. Royals bullpen is looking strong and their free agents have been doing well. They also still have a lot of prospects developing in the minors so I am hopeful.

[agrippa]

OK, thank you dolphan34. I am going to tail you with smaller units at the beginning (like your stake divided by 4).
Best of luck!

[devself1]

Good call on the Rockies. I didn't tail the Royals. I figured they've been sliding by too close, they were due for a loss. I couldn't believe it was another close one in the end... Soria gave up some runs, I hate to see that. It's still early in the season though. Francis looked great again! I actually took the over 9 in the game. I figure both teams have been scoring quite a bit recently. I hope the Royals can keep it up. It's been an exciting first week!

[dolphan34]

I said I would start picking fewer games after yesterday and today made it easy for me with only a couple I like. I do really like these three picks, but feel I am due for a bad day. Might add one more later on, but here is what I got now. Favorite pick is Rockies.

4/6
Rockies -115 Risking 3% to win 2.61%
Royals -105 Risking 3% to win 2.86%
Twins +147 Risking 3% to win 4.41%

Twins game cancelled due to rain. Not much else to say about today. A lot of close ones went my way yesterday so I can't be mad about a close one going against me.

4/6: 1-1 -.39%

Overall: 23-10 +35.46%

Good call on the Rockies. I didn't tail the Royals. I figured they've been sliding by too close, they were due for a loss. I couldn't believe it was another close one in the end... Soria gave up some runs, I hate to see that. It's still early in the season though. Francis looked great again! I actually took the over 9 in the game. I figure both teams have been scoring quite a bit recently. I hope the Royals can keep it up. It's been an exciting first week!

Nice choice not following on the Royals. I'm happy you're making your own calls. Yea I don't think I've ever seen Soria give up 4 runs in one inning before. Hope they can keep up the momentum as well. I'll definitely take their 4-2 record.

[dolphan34]

4/7

Blue Jays -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Tough to bet against Cahill and it doesn't help that the Jays will be probably be without Bautista, but Oakland has been really unimpressive so far. On the other hand the Jays look great and are at home so for a line this low, I have to bet it.

White Sox -109 Risking 3% to win 2.75%
White Sox relievers have to be tired, but this is their home opener and the Rays have been nothing but disappointments.

Indians +167 Risking 3% to win 5.01%
It is comical that the Red Sox get a line like this. I know Carmona looked bad in his first start, but so did Lester. This is more like a pick than +167 Indians.

Mets +185 Risking 3% to win 5.55%
Yes Halladay is good, but Niese is no scrub himself. Mets proved they can beat the Phillies a couple of games ago so no hesitation at this price.

Brewers -101 Risking 3% to win 2.97%
Brewers are finally winning so it is safe to bet them now. Atlanta isn't the same team away from home. Both of these pitchers are better than what they each showed in their opening games.

Pirates -106 Risking 3% to win 2.83%
Pirates were horrendous on the road last year, but this team played incredible on the road. They were solid at home last year so hopefully their hot streak continues. Rockies are not a good road team.

[dolphan34]

Added:

Reds -135 Risking 3% to win 2.22%
An undefeated team at home vs a winless team? Pitching matchup definitely favors Astros, but you just can't ignore wins and losses here.

[dolphan34]

4/7

Blue Jays -114 Risking 3% to win 2.63%
Tough to bet against Cahill and it doesn't help that the Jays will be probably be without Bautista, but Oakland has been really unimpressive so far. On the other hand the Jays look great and are at home so for a line this low, I have to bet it.

White Sox -109 Risking 3% to win 2.75%
White Sox relievers have to be tired, but this is their home opener and the Rays have been nothing but disappointments.

Indians +167 Risking 3% to win 5.01%
It is comical that the Red Sox get a line like this. I know Carmona looked bad in his first start, but so did Lester. This is more like a pick than +167 Indians.

Mets +185 Risking 3% to win 5.55%
Yes Halladay is good, but Niese is no scrub himself. Mets proved they can beat the Phillies a couple of games ago so no hesitation at this price.

Brewers -101 Risking 3% to win 2.97%
Brewers are finally winning so it is safe to bet them now. Atlanta isn't the same team away from home. Both of these pitchers are better than what they each showed in their opening games.

Pirates -106 Risking 3% to win 2.83%
Pirates were horrendous on the road last year, but this team played incredible on the road. They were solid at home last year so hopefully their hot streak continues. Rockies are not a good road team.

Added:

Reds -135 Risking 3% to win 2.22%
An undefeated team at home vs a winless team? Pitching matchup definitely favors Astros, but you just can't ignore wins and losses here.

Wish I didn't add that Reds bet this morning. Indians hitting kept this from being a really bad day. Hope for some better luck tomorrow.

4/7: 3-4 -1.27%

Overall: 26-14 +34.19%

[devself1]

You'll make up for it tomorrow!

You should look at Baltimore tonight. Brad Penny is pitching for the Tigers and he got spanked by the yankees last time out. (I understand it was at NY, and it's a hitter's park) I didn't think he was good when he pitched for the cardinals... I'm liking the Orioles bats at home!

I didn't like the reds, or mets today (so I actually faded those ), and I don't have the balls to go with the Indians like that, but you still made a few good calls. Your record shows you know what you're talking about it. No worries about today!

GL tomorrow!

[dolphan34]

You'll make up for it tomorrow!

You should look at Baltimore tonight. Brad Penny is pitching for the Tigers and he got spanked by the yankees last time out. (I understand it was at NY, and it's a hitter's park) I didn't think he was good when he pitched for the cardinals... I'm liking the Orioles bats at home!

I didn't like the reds, or mets today (so I actually faded those ), and I don't have the balls to go with the Indians like that, but you still made a few good calls. Your record shows you know what you're talking about it. No worries about today!

GL tomorrow!

Great calls on the fades. You probably had a good day. I definitely wish I had the Reds bet back, but I would take the Mets again at that price.

Sure I'll go on the Orioles with ya. I like that they are at home and Detroit is a pretty bad road team. Main problem is you don't know what you will get out of either of these pitchers. At least I will have someone to cheer for in tonight's games.

Orioles -128 Risking 2% to win 1.56%

[dolphan34]

Great calls on the fades. You probably had a good day. I definitely wish I had the Reds bet back, but I would take the Mets again at that price.

Sure I'll go on the Orioles with ya. I like that they are at home and Detroit is a pretty bad road team. Main problem is you don't know what you will get out of either of these pitchers. At least I will have someone to cheer for in tonight's games.

Orioles -128 Risking 2% to win 1.56%

Thanks for the winner devself. Got me out of the red for the day.

4/7: 4-4 +.29%

Overall: 27-14 +35.75%

[devself1]

Glad I could help! Just trying to repay the favor!