John Morrison 2011 MLB

[GGPLAYER]

I posted the first JM systems here bright guy- 1 Post Street San Francisco Suite 2550 CA 94104 Let me know when your in town I'll buy you a drink and you can tell me in person exactly why I'm a dumbass. Thanks

I am really confused by this post. What do you mean you posted the first JM systems here? I've been on SBR for a few years now and have never seen you before till this season and JM plays have been posted here before I was ever a member. According to your side panel info you just joined this year. Guess it does not matter but I just found it to be a strange comment.

Oh I see I just went back to the first page of the thread and you posted the different versions. But like I said these plays have been here at SBR for years. Any way no big deal

[readysetgo2011]

I agree, can we all come together and make some cash money. You know guys when in doubt, check out MLB free picks section. Handicapper experts giving indept analysis advice. Their thougts broken down and compiled for sports players. I use them that's is when my pick is solid and match with theirs as well.

[pagodo]

JMD, thanks, this is awesome stuff.

Cubs are cashing tonight!
I hope the Braves will as well.

[Lucylee]

I often wondered about the o/u! thanks for the info. I think I'll do a week's worth testing beginning today and see what happens on paper. Also, do you think that the o/u might change during the 2nd 1/2 of the season, given personnel changes in the line ups due to injuries, slumps, etc, where the under might balancing out? I haven't paid much attention to o/u during the regular season so just curious.

[J.M. Disciple]

The beautiful thing about the labby is that it only needs to win 34% to show a profit. Even if the o/u drops from like 55% to like 45% it will show a profit. Just remember to keep averaging and balancing it out. I did all my back testing on simple line paper, so i am not able to share my back test with everyone here. It was just simple X's though and not actually #s. My lines almost never got bigger then 3 #s long though after the couple weeks i tested it.

I was also testing it based on ML favorites, which hasn't turned out too well based on the first 2 days that i started using this system for real money. Over / unders have done extremely well for me last 2 days though. After today im probably going to just drop the ML favorites using this strategy and just focus on over / unders. Actually there is not much to "focus" on lol.. just place your bet manage your money with this system and print money lol.

Basically anything that hits over 50% though I think should be extremely profitable with the labby. ML favorites should hit over 50% but because of the juice involved instead of using a .5% unit size i would actually use something like .25 or even .125% of a unit, so it cuts back on variance some. Often times with ML favorites you will have maybe like 20% of your bankroll on the line with so many labby lines going on.

O/U dont have much juice so .5% should be fine.

Im currently testing double exposure blackjack using 4 labby lines a long with balancing and averaging them out. Someone was nice enough from wizardofodds.com to send me 50,000 hand of a simulation from double exposure blackjack. So im testing that with $1 starting lines.

So far the results have been nice Only have a couple hundred hands tested from the simulation though. I did scroll through the excel file and start at the roughest patch around the 5,000 hand mark. Even with the roughest patch, balancing the lines and averaging the lines out, my max bet was only $20. After 200 hands I managed to win $46 which is good! basically 46 lines cleared and online blackjack if you are managing your labby on paper the same time, you should get around 100 hands / hr. so $23/hr overall. Decent money for playing a game

You higher rollers can test it at the higher stakes if you wish.

Best of Luck to everyone here today again. If anyone finishes back testing my system with the O/U or another version of it, please share the results. Im guessing it should be around 500 units per season.

[J.M. Disciple]

K i have wallco, my system, crusher, now just waiting for SSS plays, then I can sleep....

Piempee or booto going to post them? they went 0-3 yesterday, so i think today will be a much better day for them.

[analyzer]

For those that may have an interest based on JMD's posts here are the records for O/U for seasons back to 2004 (which is the farthest I can get):

393-376-45 (51.1%) - 2011 (to date thru yesterday)
1123-1214-121 (48.1%) - 2010
1107-1230-110 (47.4%) - 2009
1148-1200-109 (48.9%) - 2008
1147-1177-130 (49.4%) - 2007
1178-1164-113 (50.3%) - 2006
1103-1219-138 (47.5%) - 2005
1171-1184-107 (49.7%) - 2004

[peeiempee]

I will try for SSS. I was hoping it would be sent already, but they didn't even update their website. I have work and my work gets hectic sometimes. As some of you can see from my previous posts waiting for Wallcos plays I barely have enough time to get the bet in. I will try nonetheless

[GGPLAYER]

I will try for SSS. I was hoping it would be sent already, but they didn't even update their website. I have work and my work gets hectic sometimes. As some of you can see from my previous posts waiting for Wallcos plays I barely have enough time to get the bet in. I will try nonetheless

I also played the SSS plays yesterday although mainly because they were similiar to other ones I was already on but my real quesition is I thought they were a 2 game chase, corrrect? Does anybody know if their teams can change sort of like Wallco's? I guess I just assumed the plays today would be B bets for ChiC, Atl and Bos. Let me know if I am wrong. Hope to know soon because I already put in my bets and the games start early today. Thanks!

[dlunc3]

ughhh ... put in my cubs bet this morning at -137...now its down to -118 in a matter of 2 hours! not liking the juice on this...even betting to win .3% per unit, I am going to need to cut back if it goes to D bet... lets hope their bats show up today... unfortunately im not liking the pitching matchup to much.. I feel like houston def has the edge

[GGPLAYER]

I locked in Cubs at -125 but it's down to -117 now on my book. Tough one because yesterdays game was such big juice. That was the real killer with the 9th inning meltdown. I could have lived with the RL loss but the ML one put me in a hole. The string of loses has my accounts stressed out keeping up all these chases at the moment.

[dogs1972]

Saw this in another thread...

TODAY WE HAVE THE ASTROS MYERS WHO IS 11-3 LIFETIME VS CUBBIES . HE IS 1-4 WITH A 5.11 ERA ON THE YEAR . *** take note this is the worst pitcher so far the system has picked *** HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOT LOST 2 IN A ROW YET

DAMN IT!!!!

[kjrudemi]

I have little faith in the Cubs, but I believe in Wallco's system.

[thelimit0310]

The books see some sort of value in the Cubs this series or they would not have them as such a big fav. Don't doubt yet guys, the game hasn't even started yet!

[goodone]

@J.M. Disciple: Thanks for this system man, will definitely be checking it, was testing a system with o/u too but had too much series losses so no good.

General: guys, please stop bitching and be serious, like some other wise people saying in this thread: we're here to make some money, focus on that!

[zeusky]

Saw this in another thread...

TODAY WE HAVE THE ASTROS MYERS WHO IS 11-3 LIFETIME VS CUBBIES . HE IS 1-4 WITH A 5.11 ERA ON THE YEAR . *** take note this is the worst pitcher so far the system has picked *** HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOT LOST 2 IN A ROW YET

DAMN IT!!!!

Where did you get this one?

[goodone]

For those that may have an interest based on JMD's posts here are the records for O/U for seasons back to 2004 (which is the farthest I can get):

393-376-45 (51.1%) - 2011 (to date thru yesterday)
1123-1214-121 (48.1%) - 2010
1107-1230-110 (47.4%) - 2009
1148-1200-109 (48.9%) - 2008
1147-1177-130 (49.4%) - 2007
1178-1164-113 (50.3%) - 2006
1103-1219-138 (47.5%) - 2005
1171-1184-107 (49.7%) - 2004

Interesting stuff analyzer, did you see any patterns like long streaks or anything in your backtest?

[MARCUS]

Seems like all the underdogs covered today geez

...they cover just under 55% of the time..you go 1/1...2/2..$till make money! The public bets favorites and over.

[analyzer]

@ JMD - you state that 34% or better will show profit. Can you elaborate on how you calculated 34%? I just am curious as I went back and pulled some data and it shows NFL since 1989 the lowest season % of overs was 45.9% and the lowest for NBA since 1995 was 48.2%. Already put the MLB history in prior post.

So, if 34% is correct we'd be ahead of that on all major sports for all years of data that I have available. Thanks in advance for your response.

[J.M. Disciple]

For those that may have an interest based on JMD's posts here are the records for O/U for seasons back to 2004 (which is the farthest I can get):

393-376-45 (51.1%) - 2011 (to date thru yesterday)
1123-1214-121 (48.1%) - 2010
1107-1230-110 (47.4%) - 2009
1148-1200-109 (48.9%) - 2008
1147-1177-130 (49.4%) - 2007
1178-1164-113 (50.3%) - 2006
1103-1219-138 (47.5%) - 2005
1171-1184-107 (49.7%) - 2004

I'm guessing I should start betting Unders instead then? Or maybe do 30 lines with overs and unders and just watch them all clear?

What do you all think about running 30 lines at .25% unit size betting overs and unders and just letting the Labby take care of everything?

Also these were game totals for overs / unders or individual team totals?

[teecee]

do the cubs remain the "official" play if they become the dog? i realize it is unlikely, but there has been a precipitous decline in their number.

[J.M. Disciple]

never mind answered my own question on that one... since there is only about 2400 MLB games in a season, those would have to beat game totals for overs / unders.

Im sure betting Overs & Unders using 30 lines would work fine if you just average it and balance it every day. Its a bit tedious inputting all the #s, but tedious way to make an easy living

[teecee]

as soon as i post, it moves from -115 to -122 @ the greek.


i got in @ -128 for the m/l and +165 on the r/l. the -122 m/l is now paired w/ a +160 r/l.

[J.M. Disciple]

Off to bed... hopefully I wake up with a 20% increase to my bankroll.

[Fede_Gu]

as soon as i post, it moves from -115 to -122 @ the greek.

They're watching us.

[thelimit0310]

@ JMD - you state that 34% or better will show profit. Can you elaborate on how you calculated 34%? I just am curious as I went back and pulled some data and it shows NFL since 1989 the lowest season % of overs was 45.9% and the lowest for NBA since 1995 was 48.2%. Already put the MLB history in prior post.

So, if 34% is correct we'd be ahead of that on all major sports for all years of data that I have available. Thanks in advance for your response.

The answer to your question is in the fundamentals of Labby Lining. When you lose, you add 1 number to the end of the labby line. When you win, you cross out 2 numbers from the line. For a labby line to be successful (clear) you need a win rate of 33.3333%, JMD just rounded to 34%.

I believe the math is: 2-1 = 1. 1/3 (total) = 0.33333-repeating. Convert to percentage so 0.333333*100 = 33.333333-repeating, round up to 34%

[xanderxxx93]

never mind answered my own question on that one... since there is only about 2400 MLB games in a season, those would have to beat game totals for overs / unders.

Im sure betting Overs & Unders using 30 lines would work fine if you just average it and balance it every day. Its a bit tedious inputting all the #s, but tedious way to make an easy living

For sure that deserve to be back tested!

[analyzer]

Thanks thelimit!

[xanderxxx93]

Is red sox a B bet in SSS system?! I just ask that because the game just started.

[h00dini]

So i did some testing for this year just adding up the overs and unders and ATS for home teams

O/u = 806 wins - 744
ATS @ home = 431 - 386

*note there hasn't actually been 1550 games this season. Record appears as 806 wins and 744 losses because its each teams overall over / under record added up. Should be able to just divide it by 2 to get aprox record.

Basically im sharing this information because I have started back testing a system and currently betting the system every day. All though this is only my 3rd day betting with this system. i have tested it for the first month of MLB regular season and the results were just amazing.

Basically what you do is run 15 labby lines for the over / under and bet each game to go over. I chose 15 lines because there is usually around 15 games a day.

I usually just start with 1# on my line. My unit size right now is .5% of my bankroll or $5s for example as a starting point.

I place games in order of covers.com score board starting with all the AL teams followed by NL teams, so AL teams would be first 7 or 8 lines then NL would be the bottom 7 or 8 lines.

Another KEY POINT IS WHEN you are managing these lines its important to balance and average all the lines equally, so each bet is of equal importance. Also add a unit when each line is cleared before averaging the lines out.

Ill use 5 lines in this example
Day 1
5-6
5-6
5-6
5-6
5-6

so your betting $6 to win 5 for each line just to make the math easy... round to whole # for this example.
so after day 1 say you won 40% of your bets (2/5)

5-6 Clear replace with $5
5-6 Clear replace with $5
5-6
5-6
5-6

so your new total is $5 +$5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 6 + 6 + 6 = $43 total
so you average your 8 #s and lines equally.
avg = $5.38 which your new lines now appear as

5.38
5.38
5.38 5.38
5.38 5.38
5.38 5.38

*note you can start with more then 1# on your labby line. I just prefer one. Starting with more then 1 # on your line will make each bet equal. I suggest dividing your unit size in half if you do this though, so your betting to win 1 unit still instead of 2. Having a lot of lines will risk a big portion of your bankroll each day, so use small unit size even with the labby.

so day 2
5.38 - 6
5.38 - 6
5.38 5.38 - 11
5.38 5.38 - 11
5.38 5.38 - 11

Risking $6 or $11 to win $5.38 or $10.76. again just rounding to make it simpler math.

say you win 40% this time. (2/5)
5.38 - 6 cleared and replace with $5
5.38 - 6 cleared and replace with $5
5.38 5.38 - 11
5.38 5.38 - 11
5.38 5.38 - 11

so now you have (5.38 + 5.38 + 11) x 3 + 5 + 5 = $75.28
$75.28 (amount of $ left on the lines after cleared lines are replaced with a unit / 11 (there are 11#s left on the line)
avg = $$6.84

so now your new lines after they are balanced and averaged out 5 lines 11 #s with each # equal to $6.84

6.84 / 6.84
6.84 / 6.84
6.84 / 6.84 / 6.84
6.84 / 6.84 / 6.84
6.84 / 6.84 / 6.84

Basically AVERAGING AND BALANCING THE LINES with make you a tremendous profit long run when something hits 34% or higher. And since Overs are hitting well over 50% its basically like printing $$$$.

I know the lines are bigger then what they started out at, but you have to remember we already cleared 4 lines and replaced those lines with a new unit size.

If you do not believe this example, go through this MLB season starting at the beginning and list the 15 games a day in order with all the AL games first followed by the NL games and I can almost guarantee you will be up about 100 units or so by end of the month.

You could also do this method betting ML favorites, home ATS, or any other sports pretty much since overs / unders as well as spreads are designed to hit around 50% the labby should be crushing almost any sport.

*note its important not to make a labby line for each team unless your balancing and averaging all 30 lines equally. If you use 1 line for each team with out averaging or balancing the lines I guarantee you that some of your lines will get huge.


I hope you all enjoy my "system" and hope everyone here reads this so they can make a lot of money.

*i do not think sports books can really counter this method of betting, but if you know a way they can i suggest you do not tell them!

Enjoy the system and I would like to give a special thanks again to
Bugs on this forum for sharing his "averaging" the lines out to make each bet equal.

That led me to discover this system.

LETS MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY!


any advice on this betting system on how to improve or or critizisms are welcomed. I'm always looking to improve financially.

THANKS
JMD

now say that again, but in english this time.

[h00dini]

That is actually really funny coming from you.

hey gg.....get a life. i thought you blocked me bro?

[Valand]

JMD in your numbers you have 11 # and then when your doing a new you got 13#. So you should always ad? Like when I counted I got 13. Then i needed 2 more because my winning line should be the only one with 2# the other 4 should have 3#, so i put in 15#. Next time if I only have 3 play's how should i do then?

Thx

Go Cubs!

[thelimit0310]

np analyzer! glad to help!

[Valand]

Hey I can't even find the redsox game!

[pagodo]

xander, yes, the SSS system chases a team, so you've got three [B] bets tonight on the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves

Got money on Chicago as I've been tailing wallco's picks and also Atlanta, so fingers crossed,

And good luck everyone, tonight we cash!