Mebaran's 2011 MLB

[BeatingBaseball]

There's one thing they failed to mention in the article on the amateur scouting/drafting of Albert Pujols. The guy who was running the 1999 June draft for the Cardinals and who made the usually meaningless 402nd pick - the dumb-luckiest pick of his life - was John Mozeliak.

Mozeliak is now GM of the Cardinals. He got the job when they fired Walt Jocketty. So the 402nd pick of the '99 amateur draft actually created not one significant big league career - but two.

[bhssoccer89]

bartlett represent

i think zambrano finally gets it together. will be an all star

[mebaran]

bartlett represent

i think zambrano finally gets it together. will be an all star

B-townnation. Rep it.

As far as Zambrano being an All-Star, we will see. If he can tap into the talent he showed at the end of last year, there's no doubt in my mind he can win 14-15 games with a 3.50 ERA (I think Quade being the manager is a HUGE plus for this team. He relates to the players better than Lou Piniella did, especially the hot head Zambrano).

More likely though, he'll probably have an ERA closer to 4...

[mebaran]

Question for all fantasy players: Depending on the league and whether or not it is a keeper league, is Bryce Harper worth a throw away pick in the last round of the draft? I don't think he'll get playing time in the MLB for at least a season and a half. He's too great of an asset to not take their time with.

[VegasPlayer]

Great to see you with your own thread. I'll be checking in from time to time. Like the dog slant. Let's see how it goes. I think the O's make some noise this year too. Don't have much opinion until the games count for real. Have a great season.

[EXhoosier10]

Question for all fantasy players: Depending on the league and whether or not it is a keeper league, is Bryce Harper worth a throw away pick in the last round of the draft? I don't think he'll get playing time in the MLB for at least a season and a half. He's too great of an asset to not take their time with.

I don't think the nats will bring him up before June to save on his arb clock. With that being said, are you in a really competitive league? Is it 10, 12, 14 team? If it's competitive and above a 10 team league, then ya, I see no reason not to draft him late. I'll usually drop my last couple players anyways by mid April, so it wouldn't do that much harm. If you have a bunch of guys who are injury prone though, you're likely to need that extra spot. Did you draft a healthy team? Will I ever draft him? Probably not, but if the nats are in the playoff hunt come mid june (and harper is playing alright down in the minors), maybe the bring him up.

[mebaran]

Great to see you with your own thread. I'll be checking in from time to time. Like the dog slant. Let's see how it goes. I think the O's make some noise this year too. Don't have much opinion until the games count for real. Have a great season.

Hey VegasPlayer, nice of you to drop by! I appreciate any input any time, brotha.

I don't think the nats will bring him up before June to save on his arb clock. With that being said, are you in a really competitive league? Is it 10, 12, 14 team? If it's competitive and above a 10 team league, then ya, I see no reason not to draft him late. I'll usually drop my last couple players anyways by mid April, so it wouldn't do that much harm. If you have a bunch of guys who are injury prone though, you're likely to need that extra spot. Did you draft a healthy team? Will I ever draft him? Probably not, but if the nats are in the playoff hunt come mid june (and harper is playing alright down in the minors), maybe the bring him up.

12 team league, but it is really a tough one. Every person that drafted has a ton of baseball smarts. Should be a fun league. Excellent point about the health of the team too. That seems to be something I usually back myself into a corner in (for instance, I will probably draft Kendry Morales in every league this year).

[Punter4Life]

Just to remind you, I've been checking out your thread and like what I'm seeing.

[mebaran]

Just to remind you, I've been checking out your thread and like what I'm seeing.

I appreciate it, Punter. Like I said before, everyone is welcome to post opinions/leans and any useful info.

[mebaran]

There may or may not be plays posted in the next 6 days. I am in Florida on vacation until Sunday and getting to a computer (and my models) is a little difficult.

[mebaran]

Possible play on the Astros opening day

[mebaran]

First play of the year!

Tigers +155

[bhssoccer89]

Jeez my book had it at +137

[mebaran]

Jeez my book had it at +137

Quite surprised myself when I saw that line. Got it at bookmaker late last night...however, the game has gone haywire..

[mebaran]

Tigers 5th starter Coke has some more to prove apparently. Yanks win their billionth opening day game in a row...oh well. Still satisfied with my play and more satisfied with the number I got.

2-4 possible plays for tomorrow. to everyone for tonight's game

Today: 0-1, -1.00 units
Overall: 0-1, -1.00 units

[BeatingBaseball]

You had the right side, Meb - esp at that price.

One pitch - one swing - that FB up and over to Tex - and I think Dale Scott behind the plate had a lot to do with it. Scott misses piitches on the corners and he missed one (strike 3) to Jeter before the bomb. I think Verlander was feeling a little squeeze that forced him to use more of the plate than he would have liked to - esp with 2 men on and only 1 out.

At any rate, we made the right play. Only wish we could play it 100 times at that price.

[mebaran]

You had the right side, Meb - esp at that price.

One pitch - one swing - that FB up and over to Tex - and I think Dale Scott behind the plate had a lot to do with it. Scott misses piitches on the corners and he missed one (strike 3) to Jeter before the bomb. I think Verlander was feeling a little squeeze that forced him to use more of the plate than he would have liked to - esp with 2 men on and only 1 out.

At any rate, we made the right play. Only wish we could play it 100 times at that price.

That's why they play 162, eh?

Longgggg season, lots of opportunities to eat some of that cake...

[bhssoccer89]

hey man one loss is nothing in the long run i still believe

[mebaran]

Today's plays:

Astros +225
Blue Jays -129

What can I say? Astros at this price are worth a shot. Their best chance at winning is trying to work the count as long as they can. And for the Jays, I am a HUGE fan of Romero this year. It always seems like he flys under the radar, but he is a tough lefty for the Twins to face.

on everyone's plays today. I'll be out today, soaking up some sun on Redington Beach in the Gulf.

[mebaran]

Tigers 5th starter Coke has some more to prove apparently. Yanks win their billionth opening day game in a row...oh well. Still satisfied with my play and more satisfied with the number I got.

2-4 possible plays for tomorrow. to everyone for tonight's game

Today: 0-1, -1.00 units
Overall: 0-1, -1.00 units

Today: 1-1, +0.00 units (assuming the Jays don't blow it..)
Overall: 1-2, -1.00 units

Again, I am happy with the way the day went. Myers had a great day on the hump, only to have his pen betray him. That's two games in as many days that I have lost due to bullpen arms not being able to get outs. Let this be a lesson to everyone that you absolutely have to factor in bullpens and bullpen health into your equations...

[BeatingBaseball]

The fact that the bullpens are often so shaky has caused me to make more 5 inning bets every year, meb. Look at the White Sox today - they led 14-0 after 5 and their pen did all they could to make it interesting by giving up 10 in the last four innings.

If you look at these first two days - both Verlander and Myers at least pushed the 5 inning play. And with the Brewers yesterday I cashed the First 5 play on Gallardo before the pen spit up the full game bet bottom 9.

In a case where you like a substantially favored pitcher and have to lay a price - it's getting harder to justify laying that price for 9 inn since few bullpens are worth laying it. If you're not ahead after 5 - you're usually taking the worst of it and wouldn't want the bet anyway.

In cases like Verlander and Myers, where you like a pitcher who you feel is a live dog in the matchup - if you bet them for both 5 and 9 you have two shots at a profit - one with your starter and another against the opposition bullpen. And if you can split the two plays you turn a profit.

[mebaran]

The fact that the bullpens are often so shaky has caused me to make more 5 inning bets every year, meb. Look at the White Sox today - they led 14-0 after 5 and their pen did all they could to make it interesting by giving up 10 in the last four innings.

If you look at these first two days - both Verlander and Myers at least pushed the 5 inning play. And with the Brewers yesterday I cashed the First 5 play on Gallardo before the pen spit up the full game bet bottom 9.

In a case where you like a substantially favored pitcher and have to lay a price - it's getting harder to justify laying that price for 9 inn since few bullpens are worth laying it. If you're not ahead after 5 - you're usually taking the worst of it and wouldn't want the bet anyway.

In cases like Verlander and Myers, where you like a pitcher who you feel is a live dog in the matchup - if you bet them for both 5 and 9 you have two shots at a profit - one with your starter and another against the opposition bullpen. And if you can split the two plays you turn a profit.

Great points as usual. I haven't looked into 1st 5 inning bets in depth, mainly because I have some trouble pricing them, but will have to take a deeper look.

No plays for today, I am travelling back to Chicago today. I'll be back Sunday afternoon and may have some night game plays then.

[mebaran]

Have a few plays incoming shortly...

[mebaran]

CHW/CLE Under 9 -115

[bhssoccer89]

dam dude i already played the over. at least one of us will win

[mebaran]

dam dude i already played the over. at least one of us will win

Bud...

Might have some plays for the later games, just got back from vacation, so I'm scrambling to cap some games last minute.

[mebaran]

CHW/CLE Under 9 -115

Experimenting with some new 1st half plays (courtesy of Beating Baseball who lit a fire in the creative area of my brain):

1H Cardinals -165

[mebaran]

CHW/CLE Under 9 -115

Experimenting with some new 1st half plays (courtesy of Beating Baseball who lit a fire in the creative area of my brain):

1H Cardinals -165

Pirates +153 (TWO UNITS)

[mebaran]

First of the season, ladies and gentlemen. Last few innings of the Cubs game were a little intense, but we cash our plays.

Today: 3-0, +5.06 units
Overall: 4-2, +4.06 units

[mebaran]

A few preliminary plays that I booked last night:

Braves +100
ATL/MIL Under 9 -120
Pirates +150

[mebaran]

A few preliminary plays that I booked last night:

Braves +100
ATL/MIL Under 9 -120
Pirates +150

Also rolling with Tigers +110

[BeatingBaseball]

First of the season, ladies and gentlemen.

May it be the first of many. Nice day, Mebs.

[mebaran]

Braves +100
ATL/MIL Under 9 -120
Pirates +150

Tigers +110

Twins +150

[mebaran]

Up a unit with the Twins and Pirates left to play...

[mebaran]

Today: 3-2, +1.50 units
Overall: 7-4, +5.56 units