Mebaran's 2011 MLB

[JR007]

No, I haven't seen or heard from him in months.

I'm not one to bash other people's plays, but you are correct, he was employing some sort of chase system. At one point, I tried going back and rating his plays by giving him a z-score or measuring how well he beat the market price, but he never posted the price he got...so that was impossible.

yeah..it did work for him for the first half of last season...after the all-star break.....he tanked

[mebaran]

No plays for today, April 12th. Couldn't get to my computer for long enough yesterday. Will most likely be back with some plays tomorrow.

today everyone.

[mebaran]

We have a FULL docket of plays for tomorrow, Wed. April 13th. I will be releasing them early (sometime in the next hour).

Hope everyone is having a good day

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/13:
White Sox -120
OAK/CHW Over 7.5 -120
Indians +145
Orioles +160
BAL/NYY Over 9.5 -115
CIN/SD Over 7 -110
Nationals +170 ()
Brewers -125
Marlins +115 (3 UNITS)...everyone will say it's a "trap", but there is sooooo much value here, I'll take this in a heartbeat for 3 smackaroos)
COL/NYM Over 7.5 -115
Dodgers +135 (2 UNITS)

[mebaran]

Notes from plays above:
1. Yes. I know Zimmerman is out of the Nat's lineup. Still value on that line.
2. There is a false favorite in the Marlins/Braves game. According to my #'s, Marlins should be the slight fave (I wouldn't be surprised if this game closes at PK)
3. I hate the Cubs pitching staff (OK, this one isn't a note about my plays above....but a man can only take so much pain from watching a baseball game....)

Let me know what you think, what you know, or what side you're on!

[bhssoccer89]

Really wish the dodgers could've pulled it off last night

[mebaran]

Tomorrow's plays will be graded tonight along with today's plays.

Today's plays:
Tiger +135
Mets (Game 1) -132
FLA/ATL Under 8 -120
Braves -126 (2 UNITS)

[mebaran]

Yesterday's Plays: 5-6-0, +0.15 units
Overall: 37-34-3, +5.26 units

Yesterday's results should be used as a lesson. I had a losing record, but ended up plus units. This goes along with my live dog approach to wagering.

For simplicity's sake, I have only been using Bookmaker's lines in my wagers. But for someone who is doing this professionally, line shopping is an absolute must. If you take yesterday's results as an example, I was only up +0.15 units (15 cents above market). I could have just as easily been up +0.50 units had I line shopped.

So if you assume that, as a bettor, you make 200 wagers during a baseball season, and you save an average of 5 cents on each by shopping, that's 10.00 extra units per season. That is a HUGE difference between sharps and consistent losers.

Enjoy today's games...and may your line shopping go without a hitch.

[mebaran]

Yesterday's plays: 1-3, -3.69 units
Overall: 38-37-3, +1.57 units

No plays today.

[Punter4Life]

As mentioned earlier, I plan on keeping an eye on you thread and have done so and will continue to check it out daily.

[mebaran]

As mentioned earlier, I plan on keeping an eye on you thread and have done so and will continue to check it out daily.

Thanks, bud. It's cool to know that some people are taking a little interest.
Again, feel free to drop any comments or questions or info you have.

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/16:
Orioles +100
TOR/BOS Over 9 -115 (3 UNITS)
Mariners -145
Pirates +165 (2 UNITS)
Padres -145
SD/HOU Under 7.5 -110
Marlins +170 (2 UNITS)
Cardinals +135 (4 UNITS....biggest play of the year so far)

All I have to say...is get on the Cardinals...my numbers indicate we have a false favorite here..

Yes, Kershaw is pitching at home, but the public is WAY overvaluing that. The Cardinals are breaking out offensively, including Pujols (who is starting to spray the ball now), and have been getting some really good starts out of the middle and bottom of their rotation. This is why I'm putting 4 units on them. Value play of the season so far.

[mebaran]

Really excited about baseball tomorrow..going to be a nice, long day of drinking, baseball, and yelling at my laptop when my Corner Infielders strikeout.

[bhssoccer89]

lets get this cards game

[mebaran]

Off topic....but hell yes Bulls! "It's a block party!"

[bhssoccer89]

what an unbelievable run to end that game i never jumped and ran around my living room more in my life than those 2 rose drives and korver 3

[mebaran]

Horrible start to the day...let's see if my luck changes a bit.

[mebaran]

Well...this may go down as the worst day I've ever had betting baseball. Cardinals win, and we'll salvage the day.

Either way, I will be taking a day off tomorrow, and will have my plays posted for Monday's games. I need to tweak my outputs a little bit...

[BeatingBaseball]

I also have the Cards. Took them 5 innings and game for equivalent money.

3 outs away from at least a split - but let's just win it and cash them both.

[mebaran]

I also have the Cards. Took them 5 innings and game for equivalent money.

3 outs away from at least a split - but let's just win it and cash them both.

That way I can just put this day behind me, and take solace in the fact that I at least was spot on this game analysis.

[mebaran]

Today's Plays: 1-6-1, -5.05 units
Overall: 39-43-4, -4.52 units

Definitely the worst day I've had in a long time. I will take extra care in capping Monday's games, and will come back recharged and ready to rock again.

Hope everyone's day went better than mine.

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/18:
Brewers +110
SF/COL Over 8 -120
Giants -135
Red Sox -132
Tigers -125

Lots of small favorites today. Hoping for a bounceback day!

[mebaran]

4-0 for the night so far, with the Tigers game pending. What a roller coaster ride this season's been so far....bankroll fluctuation is perfectly anti-correlated with my blood pressure

[mebaran]

Today's plays: 5-0, +5.10 units
Overall: 44-43-4, +0.58 units

Stuck with only a few plays today. Maybe my focusing will help my record.

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/19:
Brewers +195
D'backs +150
Red Sox +115 (2 UNITS)
Braves +105
ATL/LAD Under 7.5 -115 (2 UNITS)

[svenodds]

Today's plays: 5-0, +5.10 units Overall: 44-43-4, +0.58 units Stuck with only a few plays today. Maybe my focusing will help my record.

nice

[mebaran]

Yesterday's results: 3-2, +0.20 units
Overall: 47-45-4, +0.78 units

I don't know what to say about the ATL/LAD total other than...HOLY CANOLI! I went to bed thinkingI had 2 more units on the under and a braves win, and wake up to find out that Atlanta goes on a tear in the top of the 9th to extend to 10 runs..lol

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/20:
Red Sox +106
BOS/OAK Under 7.5 -120
Blue Jays +100
Nationals +154

[mebaran]

adding:
Angels 1st 5 innings EV

[mebaran]

Come on Papelbon...help us out a bit?

[bhssoccer89]

that is some BS

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/20:
Red Sox +106
BOS/OAK Under 7.5 -120
Blue Jays +100
Nationals +154

Just to clarify (and to be honest), the Nationals play is on the SECOND game..not the one that already finished.

[bhssoccer89]

yea i laid off cause i wasnt sure which you played. although i couldve prob figured it out if i looked at the odds but i played the cards 2x after they lost the first game

[mebaran]

Today's plays: 2-3, -1.14 units
Overall: 49-48-4, -0.36 units

Not upset with that nationals play..they had a good showing today

[mebaran]

No plays tomorrow, will be really busy at work. Coming back with plays for Friday, will be posted late Thursday night.