Mebaran's 2011 MLB

[mebaran]

Welcome welcome welcome. This will be my first season-long attempt at betting baseball.

My general approach to this year's season will be to mainly attack underdogs with some totals sprinkled in the mix. My cards for each day may also include up to 6-8 plays. If this isn't your cup of tea, that's fine, but I encourage all to put forth their opinions. I want this to be an open thread with plenty of banter (500 heads are definitely better than 1).

That being said, here's how my games will be bet unless otherwise noted:

All underdogs are risk 1 unit
All favorites/totals are to win 1 unit

Again, I welcome all to speak their piece and contribute.

Food for thought: Orioles have signed Vlad Guererro to a one year, $8 million contract as of Friday. He will presumably take over as their DH and #4 hitter. He, again, has a legitimate shot at 25 HRs and 100 RBIs, and I feel like he was one of the best offseason pick ups this year. Fantastic fit for the O's, and their fans are probably really excited (as am I....underdog opportunities galore).

[BeatingBaseball]

Let me be the first to wish you luck, Mebaran.

Just remember, it's a long year. There are going to be incredible ups and downs. When you hit a bad run, keep to your discipined money management and don't blow up your bankroll. Even if you get way down in units, you can make up tremendous ground once you get hot without ever pressing up you bets.

[mebaran]

Let me be the first to wish you luck, Mebaran.

Just remember, it's a long year. There are going to be incredible ups and downs. When you hit a bad run, keep to your discipined money management and don't blow up your bankroll. Even if you get way down in units, you can make up tremendous ground once you get hot without ever pressing up you bets.

Thanks BB, I appreciate the kind words. You bring up a fantastic point about money management. If you cannot manage your bet sizes to stay under 2% of your entire bankroll, then you shouldn't be betting in the first place (if your goal is to make money). I also want to stress the unimportance of W/L records (even though I'll be tracking mine). When all is said and done this year, I will be picking right around 50%. Since I will be focusing on dogs, a target win rate of 50% should yield a nice profit.

[svenodds]

BOL this season

[Terrapin Station]

Good luck, I'll be keeping an eye on this thread.

[mebaran]

BOL this season

Good luck, I'll be keeping an eye on this thread.

Thank you, both. Like I said before, feel free to drop in some knowledge from time to time or just take a look.

[mebaran]

Interesting projections from Fangraphs:
Highest projected WAR position players:

Albert Pujols
Evan Longoria
Chase Utley
Troy Tulowitzki
Joey Votto
Ryan Zimmerman
Kevin Youkilis
Hanley Ramirez
Dustin Pedroia
Miguel Cabrera
Joe Mauer
Adrian Gonzalez
Carl Crawford
Matt Holliday
Shin-Soo Choo
David Wright
Jason Heyward
Buster Posey
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Santana

Look how many young names are on this list! Carlos Santana, Posey, Heyward. That is amazing to me that they are already contributing heavily to their teams' success.

[mebaran]

Going along with yesterday's post about position player WAR rankings, here are the 2011 Fangraphs projections for the top 20 WAR pitchers:


Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Adam Wainwright
Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez
Justin Verlander
Zack Greinke
Josh Johnson
Jon Lester
Francisco Liriano
Ubaldo Jimenez
Clayton Kershaw
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Mat Latos
Tommy Hanson
CC Sabathia
Chad Billingsley
David Price
Yovani Gallardo

Kind of surprised by Tommy Hanson and Yovani Gallardo, but they did both have really good stats last year and are both on good offensive teams this year, so they'll get some wins.

[EXhoosier10]

Kind of surprised by Tommy Hanson and Yovani Gallardo, but they did both have really good stats last year and are both on good offensive teams this year, so they'll get some wins.

Firstly, pitching WAR mainly relies on a pitchers FIP, so the team they are on doesn't have much of a factor on WAR (AL/NL and park adjustments need to be done, so a slight adjustment is made based on team).

Secondly, Gallardo's peripherals look great. He's a career 3.7 xFIP pitcher. Last year, his BABIP was .324 last year, LOB-69.8%, and K/9-9.73. His LD% was a ML worst 24%, which was a driving force in that high BABIP. His big downside is his control; his BB/9 in 2009-4.56 and in 2010-3.65. His splits show that he definitely honed is control as the year went on (Small sample size, but bb/9 of 4.36 in Mar-May and 3.23 the rest of the way). At some point in the near future, he is bound to get a little lucky and "break out", even though he is already a good pitcher. Personally, if I were to have to pick who will have the best year in Milwaukee, I'd put my money on Gallardo and will be sure I have him on every one of my fantasy teams this year.

[mebaran]

Firstly, pitching WAR mainly relies on a pitchers FIP, so the team they are on doesn't have much of a factor on WAR (AL/NL and park adjustments need to be done, so a slight adjustment is made based on team).

Secondly, Gallardo's peripherals look great. He's a career 3.7 xFIP pitcher. Last year, his BABIP was .324 last year, LOB-69.8%, and K/9-9.73. His LD% was a ML worst 24%, which was a driving force in that high BABIP. His big downside is his control; his BB/9 in 2009-4.56 and in 2010-3.65. His splits show that he definitely honed is control as the year went on (Small sample size, but bb/9 of 4.36 in Mar-May and 3.23 the rest of the way). At some point in the near future, he is bound to get a little lucky and "break out", even though he is already a good pitcher. Personally, if I were to have to pick who will have the best year in Milwaukee, I'd put my money on Gallardo and will be sure I have him on every one of my fantasy teams this year.

Good call on owning him in fantasy, of course it depends on where he falls in the draft.

And yeah, I'm doing my fantasy calculations and my sports betting calculations on the same spreadsheet, so I'm getting my numbers messed up. I feel like WAR and xFIP, when used together, help predict a team's pitching prowess.

[EXhoosier10]

Good call on owning him in fantasy, of course it depends on where he falls in the draft.

And yeah, I'm doing my fantasy calculations and my sports betting calculations on the same spreadsheet, so I'm getting my numbers messed up. I feel like WAR and xFIP, when used together, help predict a team's pitching prowess.

Agreed. Everything is always based on the value you can obtain a player/team at, whether it's fantasy or betting. Looks like ESPN and Yahoo both have Greinke around #42 and Gallardo #80. Unfortunately, I will have to pass on my favorite player in Greinke at that price and stick with Gallardo as my #1 pitcher.

[mebaran]

What worries me, and has since the end of the 2009 season, is that Greinke has had a history of "mental health" problems. He apparently suffers from anxiety attacks and takes medication for it. That always made me wonder about the consistency of his numbers.

Gallardo seems like a horse to me, I have a feeling they will be ramping up his innings this year.

[BeatingBaseball]

The psychological/mental health question surrounding Greinke is probably the primary reason he is not with the Yankees right now. The media demands and overall pressure in NY are a logarithm above anything in KC or Milwaukee.

Hopefully he has a great year - I like the Brewers' chances if he does.

[mebaran]

The psychological/mental health question surrounding Greinke is probably the primary reason he is not with the Yankees right now. The media demands and overall pressure in NY are a logarithm above anything in KC or Milwaukee.

Hopefully he has a great year - I like the Brewers' chances if he does.

True. The Brewers are the dark horse in the NL this year. Come July, they may be making some serious noise.

[mebaran]

If anyone is interested in World Series Futures, here are a couple of plays I'm looking at right now (odds are pulled off SBR's book because I'm lazy):

Angels +2450
Cardinals +1850
Braves +1900
Rockies +1900

First of all, I am eliminating the AL East from any futures plays because I feel like that division is the hardest to predict. There is so much risk for each of them to knock the other out of the playoff picture.

Also, the NL Central is tough too, but since I feel like the Cardinals are still the best team, laying that price may be a bargain for an almost sure postseason appearance.

I also eliminated the Phillies completely because the price just won't be good enough. I've always had a general rule of thumb, and that is to NEVER make a futures bet on the world series favorite at the beginning of the year. I think a fair price on them winning the whole thing would be somewhere near the +400 to +500 range, and you're probably not going to find that unless your local is a crackhead.

Depending on how their pitching performs, I think the Braves are actually in contention for a wild card spot in the NL.

But my favorite play out of them all is the Angels. I know the wildcard in AL is tough to get because there are 3 teams in the East capable, but I think the Angels have a legitimate shot at either a wildcard or (and this is more likely) beating Texas out for the Division title. You got Kendry Morales back from an injury, a veteran outfield including perennial gold-glover Torri Hunter, and you also have a savvy starting rotation including Dan Haren. AND Mike Scioscia has been there before.

Let me know what you think, any odds you find, live or otherwise (I'm talking to you BeatingBaseball and 5's, I know you're creeping in Vegas ). Also want to hear about win totals if/when you see them...

Spring training is here, gentlemen! Time to oil your gloves, strap on your spikes and dig in to the batter's box!

[mebaran]

About to be my favorite time of the year! If you like sports, March is the best month of the year. NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB all going at once. Gahhhhh!

Gearing up, lot's of stories in JUST baseball alone.

[BeatingBaseball]

These are the South Point World Series futures on your 4 clubs:

Angels - Opened at +2200 now out to +2500
Cards - Opened at +1500 now out to +2000
Braves - Opened at +1600 now out to +2100
Rocks - Opened at +1900 now down to +1800

I think the Braves have become the best value of there - agree they have a strong wild card shot (their pitchiing).

[Punter4Life]

Depending on the value of the dogs you play, one could be succesful with as low as a 47% win rate.

[Punter4Life]

Oh yea, good luck this season and I'll try to read your thread daily.

[mebaran]

Oh yea, good luck this season and I'll try to read your thread daily.

Thank you, sir. The more the merrier.

[Punter4Life]

First year threads are either really good or bad - either way it's money in the bank.

[mebaran]

First year threads are either really good or bad - either way it's money in the bank.

Um...thank you? haha, I'll take that as a compliment.

My goal is to beat closing lines and make some money. We'll see how I do.

[mebaran]

Spring training games start on Friday. Will probably not be betting on them unless something pops out at me, but will be watching intently. A lot can be learned about certain players and teams. Pay attention.

[BeatingBaseball]

Spring training games start on Friday. Will probably not be betting on them unless something pops out at me, but will be watching intently. A lot can be learned about certain players and teams. Pay attention.

Although stats coming out of spring training are for the most part worthless, the valuable thing you can get a handle on by watching is the physical status of pitchers and key position players - esp aging veterans and guys coming off injury years. We just saw the Cards' Jim Edmonds as an extreme example and first casualty in that regard - not to mention Adam Wainwright.

The Dodgers' Padilla spent significant time on the shelf last year and it now looks like he may be breaking down completely.

This Joe Mauer thing should already have our attention as well.

[mebaran]

Although stats coming out of spring training are for the most part worthless, the valuable thing you can get a handle on by watching is the physical status of pitchers and key position players - esp aging veterans and guys coming off injury years. We just saw the Cards' Jim Edmonds as an extreme example and first casualty in that regard - not to mention Adam Wainwright.

The Dodgers' Padilla spent significant time on the shelf last year and it now looks like he may be breaking down completely.

This Joe Mauer thing should already have our attention as well.

Poor Wainwright. He is one of my favorites in the NL every year...

Agreed on all of your assessments, but my FAVORITE thing to pick up on during spring training is seeing what kinds of lineups managers are toying with. Also, the fact that I am an avid fantasy baseball player means that paying attention to who has a hot spring training, and who has a cold one matters a lot. Players that tend to have a cold start in training also tend to start the season of fairly slow. If it DOES carry on into the actual season, I will more closely scrutinize any involved bet calculations.

Food for thought: Someone I am really keying in on this spring is Jose Bautista. Will be very interesting to see any changes he's made at the plate, and what position they will be playing him at this year.

[Punter4Life]

I take it you had nothing for today.

[mebaran]

I take it you had nothing for today.

No, sir.

[mebaran]

Miguel Cabrera is supposedly playing tomorrow as a DH. Should be interesting to see how he does. Apparently he has been swinging the bat very well, but he weighs 270 this year, which is a big jump from last year, and also this looming alcohol problem is a big concern.

[EXhoosier10]

Poor Wainwright. He is one of my favorites in the NL every year...

Agreed on all of your assessments, but my FAVORITE thing to pick up on during spring training is seeing what kinds of lineups managers are toying with. Also, the fact that I am an avid fantasy baseball player means that paying attention to who has a hot spring training, and who has a cold one matters a lot. Players that tend to have a cold start in training also tend to start the season of fairly slow. If it DOES carry on into the actual season, I will more closely scrutinize any involved bet calculations.

Food for thought: Someone I am really keying in on this spring is Jose Bautista. Will be very interesting to see any changes he's made at the plate, and what position they will be playing him at this year.

Do you have any stats or links to prove this? I might have to pay a lot more attention to ST if there is some proof of this phenomenon.

[mebaran]

Do you have any stats or links to prove this? I might have to pay a lot more attention to ST if there is some proof of this phenomenon.

This was meant to be merely a guideline. I don't have any statistical evidence, but a lot of watching spring training is common sense. Like if a guy hits .100 in spring training and he is a career .300 hitter, there is obviously something to worry about. Likewise, if a pitcher is striking out more than normal, or is doing badly, you can infer that he will carry that into the season. Last year, a good example was Fransisco Liriano. He had 30 strikeouts in spring training (I believe the most out of any pitcher). He started the season with a no decision and then 4 straight wins.

Baseball is a numbers game, but it's also full of streaks. If someone is "in the zone", you can just see it. Like I said, I don't really have any statistical proof, but it's more of a "feel" thing anyways.

[BeatingBaseball]

After half a century of following this game, I'll have to stick with this -

Although stats coming out of spring training are for the most part worthless, the valuable thing you can get a handle on by watching is the physical status of pitchers and key position players - esp aging veterans and guys coming off injury years.

The same applies to W-L records.

[EXhoosier10]

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to agree with BB here. Here's an article recounting 2009 spring training and the results in the following season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/spring-training-stats/

Obviously some people do well, but I think this phenomenon seems real because by the end of the season, you only are following 1 or 2 players who have performed well since spring training while forgetting about all the ones who started out hot and didn't finish strong. Liriano dominated in winter ball even before spring training, and the fact that he went into ST with a couple months of live pitching already probably gave him a leg up over some of the hitters and other pitchers.

I'm not going to say you're wrong, but I personally don't use it as any part of my analysis.

[mebaran]

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to agree with BB here. Here's an article recounting 2009 spring training and the results in the following season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/spring-training-stats/

Obviously some people do well, but I think this phenomenon seems real because by the end of the season, you only are following 1 or 2 players who have performed well since spring training while forgetting about all the ones who started out hot and didn't finish strong. Liriano dominated in winter ball even before spring training, and the fact that he went into ST with a couple months of live pitching already probably gave him a leg up over some of the hitters and other pitchers.

I'm not going to say you're wrong, but I personally don't use it as any part of my analysis.

I think you are missing my point. I'm not saying if someone has a good spring training, they have a good year, and I'm not saying that it holds true in all cases. I'm also not saying I use spring training in my analysis either. What I AM saying is if a player has a good spring training, they will most likely play well for the first few weeks of the season (if you are seeing the ball well, you are seeing the ball well).

As far as that article goes...the author is guilty of singling out players too! He only picks players that had good numbers and played badly instead of looking at the whole league (Eckstein is used in the article, but is another good example of my point. He batted over .400 in spring training and started the year with a .299 average through April).

Also, if a guy has a 1.000 average through 8 spring training at-bats..we obviously wouldn't count on him to replicate those results throughout an entire season...

On a side note...pitching stats in spring training ARE pretty worthless. Most of the time, a starter will go 3 innings or so and then be taken out. These are, in essence, "simulated" games where they are practicing certain situational things.

Does anyone have any spring training stats from 2009 or 2010? If so, I'd be interested in doing some calculations with it to see if it actually DOES correlate to a good first season month.

[mebaran]

Also...I think too many people rely on FanGraphs for their info. I especially like this comment found below in the comments section of your FanGraphs article:

"More like….

This is the paradox of spring training: the numbers mean nothing, the games don’t count, and yet jobs are won and lost based on some players’ performances during the month." -Bryz

Bryz brings up a good point: How come scouts and coaches are so interested in spring training results if those results don't matter? Obviously there are flukes, but if someone is coming off of an injury where they missed a whole year, scouts watch to see how they play in spring training to decide on how to use them during the season.

Just two cents...but I'd be willing to test my hypthesis

[mebaran]

Imagine the how the Rays would look if they ended up drafting this guy....quite an amazing story here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6189583