Scoreless First Inning thread for Monday

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  • stingyrivers
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-08
    • 1240

    #1
    Scoreless First Inning thread for Monday
    Here we go again... thanks again for picking it up and starting the thread yesterday Phan.... it was a great day yesterday as scoreless 1st innings were 12-3 on the day, hopefully today will follow suit as it is a lot of 2 starters in the staffs going....

    Here are the numbers for the 5 day games, i will post the numbers for the night games in the afternoon, again for new lurkers, the set-up is pitchers name-1st innings pitched/Runs allowed.... the first set after the name is career and the second set is 2008 season, all these guys have one start on the year so far:



    Phi/Cinn

    Hamels 51/26 1/0

    Arroyo 159/88 1/1


    ---- these numbers are fairly solid, the only real concern is arroyo gave up a run in the first in his first effort this year, so to start the day not something that looks like a near lock, but nonetheless a fairly solid chance of a scoreless first


    Cubs/Pitt

    Lilly 195/97 1/1

    Gorzelanny 44/19 1/1


    ----- this one is troublesome because although the career numbers arent too bad, they both got touched up in the first in their first outing this year, if i remember correctly lilly got smashed on his first pitch of the game for a leadoff homer, but then got three consecutive easy outs... another one, that is tough to pull the trigger on, but as far as matchups we've seen a lot worse this year


    Sea/Balt

    Silva 125/64 1/0

    Cabrera 116/73 1/1


    ----- this series has been great for this bet, i think i have cashed twice in this series alone on scoreless firsts Silva looks extremely solid to get out of the first without a run, the major concern here is Cabrera, so another one that has it's concerns


    SD/SF

    Maddux 707/358 1/1

    Cain 70/33 1/0


    ----- this game seems pretty solid, Cain is generally lights out early in the game, question is how much gas does maddux have left in the tank, and he did give up a run in his opener, the other thing about this one is i expect the juice to be pretty high in the -140 to -150 range


    Minn/Wsox

    Blackburn ---- 1/0

    Vazquez 320/162 1/0


    ----- this one seems really solid, no career numbers for Blackburn because he is a reliever turned starter this year, but he had a scoreless first inning in his first start... always scary to take this one with teams like the whitesox and their potent lineup, but based on the pitching numbers, seems solid enough to take



    there are the first 5 games of the day that lead up to the night games.... nothing that really sticks out like a great bet, hopefully the night match-ups will make up for it.....

    Here's to another profitable day with this bet, haven't tallied it yet, but i am pretty sure close to 70% of all games have had a scoreless first inning on the young season....

    Let's cash again today guys!!
  • stingyrivers
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-08
    • 1240

    #2
    ok, because i was curious and because it should be kept track of if i am going to do this right and all season long, i tallied the results on the season so far:

    scoreless firsts are 51-41 on the season.... not really even close to 70%, but if we continue to find a way to shave out some of those losses, i think 60 plus % can be hit with these on the season
    Comment
    • BigOrangeTitans
      SBR MVP
      • 11-23-07
      • 4504

      #3
      Usually pitchers of quality bounce back in their next start, so one bad outting doesnt make anything a no play. A losing streak is another thing...
      Comment
      • CashMoney
        SBR MVP
        • 01-07-08
        • 1982

        #4
        I'm loving PHI/CIN. Arroyo didn't face the Phillies last year but looking at his box score from last year I found that in 33 starts he gave up a run in the 1st only 9 times or 27% of the time.

        Hamels numbers from last year are statistically worse at 29% but he did pitch a scoreless 1st in his only start against the Reds.

        Here we have two pitchers who throw a scoreless 1st inning over 70% of the time. I think this is a pretty safe play. I'm in on this one.
        Comment
        • CashMoney
          SBR MVP
          • 01-07-08
          • 1982

          #5
          Cubs/Pitt

          Lilly - Scoreless 1st 72%
          Against Pitt 2007 3 Starts 2 Scoreless 1 with a run

          Gorzelany - Scoreless 1st 74%
          Against Cubs 2007 2 Starts 2 Scoreless 1 with a run

          Still up in the air on this one.
          Comment
          • accuscoresucks
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-03-07
            • 7160

            #6
            4-1 yesterday with this,props saved my loosing card yesterday


            today i have
            phi/cnn -120
            cbs/ptt -110
            sd/sf -125


            gl guys
            Comment
            • CashMoney
              SBR MVP
              • 01-07-08
              • 1982

              #7
              Originally posted by accuscoresucks
              4-1 yesterday with this,props saved my loosing card yesterday


              today i have
              phi/cnn -120
              cbs/ptt -110
              sd/sf -125


              gl guys
              Yeah I like SD/SF as well. GL
              Comment
              • dannyt76
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 06-29-07
                • 779

                #8
                Out of the 5 day games the only one that I'm really comfortable with is the SD/SF game. Not only because both pitchers are good, but both teams haven't been scoring many runs so far. GL.
                Comment
                • chinodeft26
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 01-17-08
                  • 97

                  #9
                  i'm on cubs/pit 110 and phi/cin -120 with a lean on the m's/bal -105
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #10
                    I think a way to maximize your profits on this 1st inning thing ... take the ones that stingy points out have great #s going in favor of a NO SCORE. But if there are ones that look atrocious, don't be afraid to pull the trigger on a YES SCORE. I did this a couple times last week and ca$hed.

                    As for the early ones, hard to take the CIN-PHI one even with great pitchers ... all 3 games in the series have had 1st inning scores. Waiting to see lineups.

                    I actually like the NO with Cubs/Pirates. Both offenses have yet to score in the 1st this season. Both pitchers have decent success vs. opposition.
                    Comment
                    • treece
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 11-28-07
                      • 6298

                      #11
                      can someone explain to me what these numbers mean?

                      Phi/Cinn

                      Hamels 51/26 1/0

                      Arroyo 159/88 1/1
                      Comment
                      • stingyrivers
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-15-08
                        • 1240

                        #12
                        what's up guys, hopefully a long day of cashing these tickets ahead....

                        treece,

                        the way the numbers are posted is this:

                        Phi/Cinn

                        Hamels 51 1st inn pitched/26 runs allowed (career) - 1 1st inning pitched/0 runs allowed (2008 season)
                        Comment
                        • OLGC_Slayer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-28-08
                          • 2186

                          #13
                          Id be careful with that Cincy/Philly game. Either one of those teams top 3 or 4 hitters could easily hit a dinger
                          Comment
                          • CashMoney
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-07-08
                            • 1982

                            #14
                            Rollins...lead off homer. 0-1 on the day thus far.
                            Comment
                            • OLGC_Slayer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-28-08
                              • 2186

                              #15
                              I should have said something earlier. Sorry.
                              Comment
                              • CashMoney
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-07-08
                                • 1982

                                #16
                                I should have known better. Still thinking about the Cubs and Pirates. Any thoughts guys??
                                Comment
                                • treece
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-28-07
                                  • 6298

                                  #17
                                  its ok time to double up on the cubs pirates.
                                  Comment
                                  • accuscoresucks
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-03-07
                                    • 7160

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by treece
                                    can someone explain to me what these numbers mean?

                                    Phi/Cinn

                                    Hamels 51/26 1/0

                                    Arroyo 159/88 1/1


                                    hamels 51 innings pitched /giving up 26 runs/ 1-0 for 08 season

                                    someone correct me if im wrong
                                    Comment
                                    • OLGC_Slayer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-28-08
                                      • 2186

                                      #19
                                      Both Lilly and Gorzelanny have had pretty good success against the other team. Lilly can give up a bad dinger every once in awhile but its definitely a better wager than Philly/Cincy.

                                      San Diego/San Fran is the only one that I think is a "lock" but the juice on that must be pretty high.
                                      Comment
                                      • CashMoney
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-07-08
                                        • 1982

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by accuscoresucks
                                        hamels 51 innings pitched /giving up 26 runs/ 1-0 for 08 season

                                        someone correct me if im wrong
                                        51 Innings Career in which he gave up 26 runs in total. Last year he gave up a 1st inning run in 8 of 28 starts.

                                        Arroyo looked good but he normally pitches a light's out 1st or gets lit up as the 3-0 Philly lead in the 1st is showing.
                                        Comment
                                        • OLGC_Slayer
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-28-08
                                          • 2186

                                          #21
                                          Atlanta/Colorado. Going to be a cold, cold night in Denver tonight. Could be a good bet.
                                          Comment
                                          • CashMoney
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-07-08
                                            • 1982

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by treece
                                            its ok time to double up on the cubs pirates.
                                            I'm with you
                                            Comment
                                            • treece
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-28-07
                                              • 6298

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by OLGC_Slayer
                                              Both Lilly and Gorzelanny have had pretty good success against the other team. Lilly can give up a bad dinger every once in awhile but its definitely a better wager than Philly/Cincy.

                                              San Diego/San Fran is the only one that I think is a "lock" but the juice on that must be pretty high.
                                              well if you win theres no juice. thats what jj said in his video.
                                              Comment
                                              • OLGC_Slayer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-28-08
                                                • 2186

                                                #24
                                                Not trying to fade you guys or anything but Ted Lilly used to really struggle in the 1st when he was with the Jays.
                                                Last year in Pittsburgh in his first appearance he gave up 3 runs, 2nd appearance was a 1 run 8 inning outing.
                                                Still he is a good pitcher and so is Gorzelanny. I hope you guys win it.
                                                Comment
                                                • stingyrivers
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-08
                                                  • 1240

                                                  #25
                                                  these bets will heat up, just gotta be patient... BOT made a great point the other day that this bet typically heats up in the later games as the pitchers have had all day for their arms to loosen up..... i am gonna go small on cubbies/bucks with ya... let's see if we can get this ball rolling.... Lilly gave up first pitch dinger last game, but then mowed em down 123 after that
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #26
                                                    **** the juice on the Cubs/Pirates just went to -155. Gonna have to pass even though I think the NO SCORE is a winner.....

                                                    Nooo ... back to -135, so I am in. Derek Lee is the key out to get & Lilly needs to keep the Pirates lead-off man off base.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • CashMoney
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-07-08
                                                      • 1982

                                                      #27
                                                      Was sweating this one out but congrats fellas
                                                      Comment
                                                      • chinodeft26
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 01-17-08
                                                        • 97

                                                        #28
                                                        good win on the cubs/pit game fellas
                                                        Comment
                                                        • treece
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 11-28-07
                                                          • 6298

                                                          #29
                                                          wow -155 thats alot, i got -110. it was -105 a few minutes before i bet it so i hurried and hit it at -110. well no runs in the first.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • OLGC_Slayer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-28-08
                                                            • 2186

                                                            #30
                                                            Congrats on Pitt/Cubbies.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stingyrivers
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-15-08
                                                              • 1240

                                                              #31
                                                              what's everyone's true feel on the balt/sea game? I like it, but might be a bit biased because i cashed on this series twice so far this week?? I think the only real danger for a run is by the mariners
                                                              Comment
                                                              • CashMoney
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-07-08
                                                                • 1982

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                                                what's everyone's true feel on the balt/sea game? I like it, but might be a bit biased because i cashed on this series twice so far this week?? I think the only real danger for a run is by the mariners
                                                                Cabrera scares me to death. When he's on he's on but when he's off he is horrible. He was got lit against the Rays in his 1st start. My gut is telling me to stay away from it but I'm greedy.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • chinodeft26
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 01-17-08
                                                                  • 97

                                                                  #33
                                                                  silva looked good in his last start and if cabrera doesn't walk anyone in the 1st, it should be a win. but that is one giant if. granted this might not matter because the m's don't take walks tho.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stingyrivers
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-15-08
                                                                    • 1240

                                                                    #34
                                                                    there is always my scoreless 1st with a hedge play, but that actually just adds risk to if the O's score a run....

                                                                    1 unit scoreless first

                                                                    1 unit Mariners lead after first
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • CashMoney
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-07-08
                                                                      • 1982

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Cabrera was scored on 13 times in 34 starts last year. In three games against the M's he blanked them once, gave up 1 run and gave up 3 runs.

                                                                      I may make a play that a run will be scored on this one but again my gut is telling me to stay far away.
                                                                      Comment
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