Going YES on Bal/Sea. Top of the Ms order has scary good #s vs. Silva. Especially Roberts who has 4 HRs I believe in 9 career ABs! As mentioned, Cabrera can be Cy Young-esque or a walk-machine.
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i went a half a unit on the scoreless inning, hopefully cabrera is in bounce back mode, just looking to buy the juice for the bigger four o clock play with this oneComment -
i am gonna post the numbers for the night games shortly after the start of the 4 o clocksComment -
lol a lot of you guys must use the greek, the sea/balt scoreless 1st went from -105 to -130 in about 20 minutesComment -
I have a super small play at +100.Comment -
2-0 M's in the 1st. Sorry guys.Comment -
no biggie bro, at least we knew enough to go real small on this one if at all.... Cabrera looks like great fade material for this bet....
by the numbers the 4 o clocks looked like the more solid plays so hopefully they cash inComment -
Minny/ChiSox ...
On the fence here. Vazquez has been good vs. MIN, but Morneau owns him - so if it's not a 1-2-3 first, big time scary. Do like an inexperienced guy in as #2 for MIN, so that should help perhaps keep the bases clear. Right around 50-50 #s wise this year with scores in the 1st for these teams.Comment -
Alright fella's...I'm done for the day. Finished +60 on these plays and I'm not willing to lay -160 on the Padres. I'm up +260 for the day so I'm chillin until tomorrow. Good luck with the rest of your plays today and I'll check you all out tomorrow.Comment -
no on sf/sdComment -
-160? I see -125. Gotta take the Giants-Pads. Same match-up twice last year and no scores. Maddux been very good at AT&T Park. Waiting for lineups, but this looks good.Comment -
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Screw it...I'm in for 1 unit. If it doesn't hit I'm still up for the day and won't be able to chase anyway as I won't be close to a PC in a half hour
GL fellas
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gl man.... i went in on it too, havent seen numbers better than this one all season, so even if it loses cant really kick ourselves for making the playComment -
and here are the numbers for the night games, the 3 early games look real dangerous, but the 3 later games look very solid:
StL/Hou
Wellemeyer 12/8 1/0
Rodriguez 77/55 1/0
Fla/Wash
Miller 14/12 1/0
Redding 94/64 1/0
TB/NYY
Hammel 24/16 ----
Mussina 502/212 1/1
Atl/Colo
Glavine 669/368 1/0
Cook 107/50 1/0
LAD/Ariz
Loaiza 331/156 1/0
Haren 122/52 1/0
Clev/LAA
Carmona 39/19 1/0
Saunders 33/23 1/0
GL on all your plays guysComment -
I'm in on MIN/CHI ... no score.Comment -
i went on Mn/Chi small, and SD/SF much biggerComment -
Yeah I think that is wise. I'm hoping Vazquez doesn't face Morneau and the MIN pitcher's "newness" as a starter means the ChiSox won't catch up with him in the 1st!Comment -
Cooked.Comment -
probably a big mistake but i am going even larger on sd/sf gameComment -
i am starting to lose a lot of faith in this.... the ones that seem absolutely likely for scoreless firsts end up with 1st inning homeruns.... definitely getting down on thisComment -
I think you have to dig deeper than just the 1st inning run stats stingy. That's why I wait for box scores to show the lineups. Alot of times you can find an extra edge one way or the other by looking at the #s ofthe 1st 3-4 batters vs. a pitcher.
I still say this is a 50-50 prop any time you bet because of what you said ... one mistake and boom, done. I got locked out of SD/SF and then went and took the under thru the 1st 5, looks like I'm a donor either way!Comment -
stingy mabye try and iron it out a little more i really dont see how though..but low points are inevidable mabye decrease your unit size,my actual unit,pecker,or down right whatever actually does shrink in times like this its an early early day as far as the season goes
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I think maybe it should just be a 1st Inning Scores Thread ... I think you can make money off both YES & NO. There's always going to be a few like the SD/SF game that just don't go according to the research, but more often than not if you look at stingy's #s then go look at the team's #s in the 1st and batter vs. pitcher ... you can find some good juice for these bets.
Waiting for ATL-COL lineups ... leaning to NO SCORE at +105. It's 50-50 unless there are some bad pitcher/batter splits.Comment -
Knew it but oh well. Tomorrow is a new day. Let's get em tomorrow fellas
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Angels/Indians - No Score 1 Unit for a try to save the day/chase play.Comment -
yeah.... i hear you guys, thanks for the support, and it is way early in the season to get that discouraged, plus Clev/LAA scoreless and Kansas miracle ML saved my ass and the day....
you are also absolutely correct about cross referencing the pitching numbers vs the first 4 hitters career numbers against the starter, just havent figured out how to tally that yet, but i was thinking the way i been doing it was incomplete with out that....
another interesting thing i have noticed which just may be coincidence so far is if scoreless firsts are hot one day, they are very cold the very next day and vice-versa, but not only that, in a mirror image type way, like if it goes 10-4 one day, the next day it goes 4-10 or close to the exact opposite, it's been doing this so far for the first week of the season....
BOT is dead on about early games being risky with this too, we've seen that as a trend over and over....
I was much more discouraged that people were tailing this strategy and losing on it moreso than my own bets....
but another thing, like i was saying earlier in the week, making this play as a blanket approach in almost every game is destined to break even at best, so as you all point out, i have much more work to do and the real upside is that baseball season is 6 months long, so plenty of time to iron out a winning way with this....
i will post the day game numbers for those still interested later tonight....
Hope everyone salvaged at least a half decent day.... if the pattern continues that has formed over the first week, then tomorrow should be a good handful of scoreless firsts after today....
Hang in there guys, we'll get em.........Comment
