Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[PickSix]

Great calls On Gm 1 of the World Series, Dexter. Good luck the rest of the series!

[Dexter]

Will you explain why the series price opened where it did Dex?

I've been asking around all day and still don't get it.

i thought -170 was high but im not sure what it opened at - i just looked at it as great value on the cards. series is a long way from over. the cards had to win game 1 with carp home vs wilson.

i can tell you that AL was going to be favored over the NL in most any matchup. they are just perceived as the more dominant league.

[Love The Action]

i cant make any in series bets or live game bets....my guys dont have that.

You'll have options down the line. As I mentioned in my thread, this was a must win for the Cards. As long as they win tomorrow, they can bring it back to Missou no matter what.

Onto tomorrow. I have not looked at the game yet, about to do it now. Any leans?

[No coincidences]

i thought -170 was high but im not sure what it opened at - i just looked at it as great value on the cards. series is a long way from over. the cards had to win game 1 with carp home vs wilson.

i can tell you that AL was going to be favored over the NL in most any matchup. they are just perceived as the more dominant league.

I wasn't surprised that Texas was favored -- I figured StL would be in the +120 range.

I still think the Rangers win this series.

[Dexter]

You'll have options down the line. As I mentioned in my thread, this was a must win for the Cards. As long as they win tomorrow, they can bring it back to Missou no matter what.

Onto tomorrow. I have not looked at the game yet, about to do it now. Any leans?

the sites i use have no data yet.

[Love The Action]

Will you explain why the series price opened where it did Dex?

I've been asking around all day and still don't get it.

What's not to get?

Texas is the superior team on paper and in the mind of public opinion. Therefore, the books were going to get hit with Texas money from sharps and public no matter the price. They had to open at a high enough price to get enough Cards money from the start to minimize their risk from the outset.

You also have to remember that the books have exposure on the Cards to win the world series bets from earlier in the season at crazy odds. Therefore, they are going to go high on that Texas juice because of this Cardinals liability.

What did you expect the price to be? Texas was priced accurately at -150 and up. Perhaps you are putting too much stock in home field or something. I don't know...but that was a proper price based on the perception of the Rangers.

[No coincidences]

What's not to get?

Texas is the superior team on paper and in the mind of public opinion. Therefore, the books were going to get hit with Texas money from sharps and public no matter the price. They had to open at a high enough price to get enough Cards money from the start to minimize their risk from the outset.

You also have to remember that the books have exposure on the Cards to win the world series bets from earlier in the season at crazy odds. Therefore, they are going to go high on that Texas juice because of this Cardinals liability.

What did you expect the price to be? Texas was priced accurately at -150 and up. Perhaps you are putting too much stock in home field or something. I don't know...but that was a proper price based on the perception of the Rangers.

Given the Cards were favored in Game 1 and everything else? I figured StL would be +120 at most.

Why would the books immediately subject themselves to a big arb. opportunity?

[Love The Action]

Given the Cards were favored in Game 1 and everything else? I figured StL would be +120 at most.

The series and game one are completely different animals. The Cards were solid faves in game in because of their advantage on the mound. Look at the turnaround in price for game 2. I would argue the Cards still have the advantage but they are now at around +101. With respect to the series, you have to remember that Texas has three straight games at home. Therefore, all they have to do is steal one game in St. Louis to potentially close the door on the Cardinals. Add to the fact that Texas is the superior team, with the better overall lineup, more bullpen options and better overall starting pitchers, and the books were just forced into this uncomfortable position. There was nothing they could have done to avoid overexposure in one way or the other than to put out the prices they did. If they went too cheap on the Rangers for the series, they would have gotten pounded with one sided Rangers money. If they went too cheap on the Cards game one, they would have gotten pounded with one sided Cards money. Instead, they accurately priced both games in an effort to get equal action, but in so doing knowingly assumed the risk of a possible arb. That just goes with the territory.

Why would the books immediately subject themselves to a big arb. opportunity?[/quote]

Because they had no choice.

Sometimes people "read" into these numbers too much and they draw too great in inference from what they see. All the books are trying to do is make money with as little risk as possible. This particular world series is just a tough series for the books to price because of the pitching matchup in game one. Believe me, if they could have avoided this situation they would have. However, the need to balance out the money for each option overweighed the risk of the arb.

[Dexter]

World Series Game 2:

(3u) under cards 8_I was leaning under to begin with, but greg gibson behind the plate sealed the play for me. He is on his way to the A4 stable in 2012. He was 78% to the under in 2010, and 70% this year over a 30+ game sample both years. Wiseguy money allready hit this down to 8.

[r1kkie]

Great start on the world series Dexter! You are amazing!

[Dexter]

allright....now i would like the cards to put a few on the board. i want to be back in texas up 2-0..

[slickdealmike]

thanks dex for the under.

[Dexter]

i hit the under but im pretty pissed right now. motte needs a friggin out pitch..

[slickdealmike]

bro your the man glad i found this thread.

[lakerboy]

dex you need to acknowledge the guy who is calling you the man. jeez man why you so smug?

[Dexter]

bro your the man glad i found this thread.

thanks.

dex you need to acknowledge the guy who is calling you the man. jeez man why you so smug?

is it ok with you if i go to bed?

great night - i checked out your sheet....10x texas

[Dexter]

Saturday 10/22:

(2u) under rangers 9.5

[r1kkie]

Saturday 10/22:

(2u) under rangers 9.5

Thank you for that one! Your doin great!

[smflanagan]

Thanks Dexter!

[Dexter]

Sunday 10/23 - Game 4:

(2u) over rangers 9.5

[Dexter]

Week 29: 6-3 (+10.9u)

A1: 0-0
A2: 0-0
A3: 1-0
A4: 0-1
Miller: 0-1
_____________________
YTD: 327-281 (+188.85u)

A1: 19-17 (+1.2u)
A2: 6-6
A3: 30-12
A4: 111-98
Reynolds: 16-17
Welke: 20-13
Hoye: 16-13
Layne: 17-14
Darling: 19-15
Joyce: 6-7 (Out for Year)
Miller: 17-19
_______________________
2011 Playoffs: 16-11 (+21.1u)

Week 30: 3-2 (+6.6u)

A4: 1-0
Layne: 1-0
_________________
YTD: 330-283 (+195.45u)

A1: 19-17 (+1.2u)
A2: 6-6
A3: 30-12
A4: 112-98
Reynolds: 16-17
Welke: 20-13
Hoye: 16-13
Layne: 18-14
Darling: 19-15
Joyce: 6-7 (Out for Year)
Miller: 17-19
_______________________
2011 Playoffs: 19-13 (+27.7u)

[Dexter]

Game 5:

(8u) cardinals +120 (A1)

[No coincidences]

With your series bet Dex, I'm surprised you're going this big here. What's your angle?

[Dexter]

With your series bet Dex, I'm surprised you're going this big here. What's your angle?

i have Autobets which ive used all year which allow me to take my thinking cap off some nights.

(A1) - 8u per play all year

[No coincidences]

i have Autobets which ive used all year which allow me to take my thinking cap off some nights.

(A1) - 8u per play all year

My bad -- didn't see the A1.

Good luck. I like Texas tonight, but not much.

[Dexter]

My bad -- didn't see the A1.

Good luck. I like Texas tonight, but not much.

you never agree with a pick of mine, so im not surprised you're on texas....ha

[No coincidences]

you never agree with a pick of mine, so im not surprised you're on texas....ha

I think something's not quite right with Carp.

[Luv2Play2]

you thinking it may have something to do wth that face plant?

[No coincidences]

you thinking it may have something to do wth that face plant?

No idea, but he wasn't throwing his curve much in that game at all. Pitching in Arlington's a whole different beast than StL. I think the Rangers win 5-3.

[Dexter]

I think something's not quite right with Carp.

huh? his elbow?

he pitched great in game 1 and was only pulled b/c of a pinch hit situation.

[No coincidences]

huh? his elbow?

he pitched great in game 1 and was only pulled b/c of a pinch hit situation.

Yes, his elbow.

How many curves did he throw in that game? 5?

[Dexter]

No idea, but he wasn't throwing his curve much in that game at all. Pitching in Arlington's a whole different beast than StL. I think the Rangers win 5-3.

do you just come into my threads when you want to dispute a play of mine or make mention of the other side? cause thats all you have ever done all season the handful of times youve been here.

you think the score will be 5-3 tex (with no mention why)....so i guess there was a .9 cent drop at pinny.

[Dexter]

Yes, his elbow.

How many curves did he throw in that game? 5?

guy pitches a great game (where he was getting stronger into the game) and you're going to read into his pitch selection and look for something negative. brilliant....

[No coincidences]

do you just come into my threads when you want to dispute a play of mine or make mention of the other side? cause thats all you have ever done all season the handful of times youve been here.

you think the score will be 5-3 tex (with no mention why)....so i guess there was a .9 cent drop at pinny.

Were we not discussing Carpenter? I think his elbow is hurting and he's going to get hit tonight. That's why I'm on TEX and the TEX TT over.

Sorry if I offended you.

[Mybologne]

Game 5: (8u) cardinals +120 (A1)

GL dex I'm also on cards 1H and full!!!