Are the Nationals really that bad?
Manny Acta did an outstanding job in '07, especially with the Nats' pitching staff. So why didn't the Lerner Family spend any money on arms last winter as Washington moves into a new stadium?
With all due respect to the jobs turned in by Clint Hurdle in Colorado, Philly's Charlie Manuel and Bob Melvin in Arizona last year, Manny Acta was the real manager of the year in the National League.
Tell me what kind of job Melvin, Manuel and Hurdle could’ve done with Matt Chico, Jason Bergmann, Tim Redding, Mike Bacsik and nine other scrubs in their rotations? That Acta found a way to win 73 games with his pitching staff, a staff without one true ace in 2007 and still lacking a stopper in the rotation, was nothing short of amazing in my book. And it appears Acta will get a chance to show it off again this year after the biggest names that club president Stan Kasten and GM Jim Bowden brought in were…Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge?
Actually, my simulations suggest Acta and the Nationals will take a step back this season, but I’m getting ahead of myself. And Milledge, despite his baggage, is a talent with a lot of potential, so I shouldn’t pooh-pooh on Washington’s front office for that deal. Not yet, at least.
But no matter how you slice it, Acta and his staff have their work cut out for a second straight season. Maybe the opening of their new park this season will bring in some extra cash and allow the team to dip into the free agent market the next two years while Bowden and scouting director Dana Brown continue to build on the farm. If nothing else, the new park will give DC fans something to smile about during this long, hot(winded) summer leading up to the fall elections. And hey, if the Lerner's are just going to fleece the public and pocket the cash like other owners, there's not much we can do about it anyway.
PITCHING
Though you have to take into account certain effects at each team’s home park, it’s still worth mentioning that Acta’s and pitching coach Randy St. Claire’s collection of arms finished with a better ERA than the Cardinals, Astros, Phillies, Pirates, Reds and Marlins. But before we get carried away, we do have to remember that the staff was dead last in the NL in strikeouts, 14th in walks allowed and 13th in home runs surrendered.
Not one pitcher reached triple digits in strikeouts, and only one – Chico – pitched more than 118 innings. Simply finding at least two arms that can go 175+ innings this year could go a long way. Losing the closest thing the Nats had to an ace, Shawn Hill, for an indefinite amount of time probably isn’t going to help.
Washington will come out of Spring Training with a rotation that has three left-handers, including Odalis Perez who will get the Opening Day start when the club opens its new stadium on Sunday, Mar 30, against the Braves. It’s the first Opening Day nod for Perez.
The other two southpaws in the rotation will be Chico and John Lannan. The two right-handers will be Redding and Bergmann. Look for one of the righties to follow Perez with Chico third, the other right-hander fourth and Lannan at the end of the line. Once Hill returns, possibly by the season’s third week, he’ll move into Lannan’s rotation spot.
The bullpen is how the Nationals were able to stay in many games last year, and consistency was their name as not one pitcher had a truly outstanding season just as none of the top seven relievers from a year ago suffered through a horrible campaign. Chad Cordero (3.36, 37 saves) is back at closer, and rumors will persist the first few months about Cordero being a valued commodity come the July trading deadline.
Big Jon Rauch, all 6-11 of him, should be the primary eighth inning arm, with Saul Rivera likely pitching in front of Rauch in the mix. Veteran Ray King will get the lefty specialist duty while Jesus Colome, Chris Schroder and Luis Ayala fill the middle relief roles. Joel Hanrahan is the most logical choice to be the long reliever, possibly making a spot start or two at some point during the 2008 season.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
It would’ve been a completely different story had the Nats won 73 games last year with their offense carrying the no-name pitching staff. But that just wasn’t the case as Washington finished dead last in the NL, and the majors, with just 673 runs scored. And you can only attribute so much of that to the bigger park at old RFK stadium.
Hitting coach Lenny Harris will try and get some more oomph from this year’s collection of bats that includes a pair of youngsters with spotty, troubled pasts. Milledge is taking over in center after being dealt to the Nationals from the Mets in the offseason, and it’s easy to imagine him settling down enough to try and make New York look foolish for giving up on him. Milledge has been hitting second in the order this spring.
Elijah Dukes out in left? Not so easy to imagine him settling down and behaving given he’s yet to endure a full pro season without a suspension for one incident or another. Dukes will get the early starts in left field while Wily Mo Peña recovers from a strained oblique. The best-case return for Peña is late April.
Over in right will be Austin Kearns who is likely to bat fifth in the order. Outfield reserves are Willie Harris and Ryan Langerhans currently, though Harris has been a player mentioned in a few trade possibilities.
If I asked you which regular among this year’s position players is the only Nationals player to be entering his fourth season with the club, would your first guess be Ryan Zimmerman? If so, go pull a cold and crispy beer from the fridge for your just reward. Zimmy is back at third and, according to my gut, about to come of age this year with an all-around solid season.
Across the diamond at first we should see Nick Johnson get the majority of at bats, especially when a right-hander starts. Dmitri Young will back him up. Aaron Boone could also see some time at first as well as spelling Zimmerman at third.
The middle of the infield will find Ronnie Belliard at second and Cristian Guzman at short. But Guzman will be on a short leash following a shaky spring, especially in the field. Felipe Lopez could move into the SS job very soon, and also serves as the reserve at second to open the season.
Brian Schneider, who caught 358 games for the Nationals since their move from Montreal after the 2004 season, made his way north to the Big Apple this winter with the Mets’ former backstop Paul Lo Duca traveling south along the coast to DC to be the Washington backstop. The Nats also picked up Johnny Estrada in the offseason, but Estrada will start the year on the DL due to an elbow problem. With Lo Duca also battling some knee trouble that means we could see third-string catcher Jesus Flores several times in the first few weeks.
Key Player(s): If the entire pitching staff repeated their 2007 performances, and that’s not as improbable as it might sound, then it puts the entire offense on this list. Milledge will be key, a breakout season from Zimmerman would be huge, and someone like Kearns or Nick Johnson finally realizing their potential would go a long way. Then again, this is a team that seems destined to lose 90 times, so how critical is anyone?
Futures: Washington is +3300 to win the NL East at 5Dimes, with the shop offering +7500 for the Nats to win the NL Pennant. TheGreek set the break on their win totals at 70½, pricing the Over at -140 and the Under at +120.
According to my simulations, that +120 on the Under has some value with the Nationals averaging 68.2 in the five runs. This is a tough team to cap this year since we don’t really know what to expect from the new stadium, but it would appear that they will struggle to avoid the 90-loss plateau.
Manny Acta did an outstanding job in '07, especially with the Nats' pitching staff. So why didn't the Lerner Family spend any money on arms last winter as Washington moves into a new stadium?
With all due respect to the jobs turned in by Clint Hurdle in Colorado, Philly's Charlie Manuel and Bob Melvin in Arizona last year, Manny Acta was the real manager of the year in the National League.
Tell me what kind of job Melvin, Manuel and Hurdle could’ve done with Matt Chico, Jason Bergmann, Tim Redding, Mike Bacsik and nine other scrubs in their rotations? That Acta found a way to win 73 games with his pitching staff, a staff without one true ace in 2007 and still lacking a stopper in the rotation, was nothing short of amazing in my book. And it appears Acta will get a chance to show it off again this year after the biggest names that club president Stan Kasten and GM Jim Bowden brought in were…Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge?
Actually, my simulations suggest Acta and the Nationals will take a step back this season, but I’m getting ahead of myself. And Milledge, despite his baggage, is a talent with a lot of potential, so I shouldn’t pooh-pooh on Washington’s front office for that deal. Not yet, at least.
But no matter how you slice it, Acta and his staff have their work cut out for a second straight season. Maybe the opening of their new park this season will bring in some extra cash and allow the team to dip into the free agent market the next two years while Bowden and scouting director Dana Brown continue to build on the farm. If nothing else, the new park will give DC fans something to smile about during this long, hot(winded) summer leading up to the fall elections. And hey, if the Lerner's are just going to fleece the public and pocket the cash like other owners, there's not much we can do about it anyway.
PITCHING
Though you have to take into account certain effects at each team’s home park, it’s still worth mentioning that Acta’s and pitching coach Randy St. Claire’s collection of arms finished with a better ERA than the Cardinals, Astros, Phillies, Pirates, Reds and Marlins. But before we get carried away, we do have to remember that the staff was dead last in the NL in strikeouts, 14th in walks allowed and 13th in home runs surrendered.
Not one pitcher reached triple digits in strikeouts, and only one – Chico – pitched more than 118 innings. Simply finding at least two arms that can go 175+ innings this year could go a long way. Losing the closest thing the Nats had to an ace, Shawn Hill, for an indefinite amount of time probably isn’t going to help.
Washington will come out of Spring Training with a rotation that has three left-handers, including Odalis Perez who will get the Opening Day start when the club opens its new stadium on Sunday, Mar 30, against the Braves. It’s the first Opening Day nod for Perez.
The other two southpaws in the rotation will be Chico and John Lannan. The two right-handers will be Redding and Bergmann. Look for one of the righties to follow Perez with Chico third, the other right-hander fourth and Lannan at the end of the line. Once Hill returns, possibly by the season’s third week, he’ll move into Lannan’s rotation spot.
The bullpen is how the Nationals were able to stay in many games last year, and consistency was their name as not one pitcher had a truly outstanding season just as none of the top seven relievers from a year ago suffered through a horrible campaign. Chad Cordero (3.36, 37 saves) is back at closer, and rumors will persist the first few months about Cordero being a valued commodity come the July trading deadline.
Big Jon Rauch, all 6-11 of him, should be the primary eighth inning arm, with Saul Rivera likely pitching in front of Rauch in the mix. Veteran Ray King will get the lefty specialist duty while Jesus Colome, Chris Schroder and Luis Ayala fill the middle relief roles. Joel Hanrahan is the most logical choice to be the long reliever, possibly making a spot start or two at some point during the 2008 season.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
It would’ve been a completely different story had the Nats won 73 games last year with their offense carrying the no-name pitching staff. But that just wasn’t the case as Washington finished dead last in the NL, and the majors, with just 673 runs scored. And you can only attribute so much of that to the bigger park at old RFK stadium.
Hitting coach Lenny Harris will try and get some more oomph from this year’s collection of bats that includes a pair of youngsters with spotty, troubled pasts. Milledge is taking over in center after being dealt to the Nationals from the Mets in the offseason, and it’s easy to imagine him settling down enough to try and make New York look foolish for giving up on him. Milledge has been hitting second in the order this spring.
Elijah Dukes out in left? Not so easy to imagine him settling down and behaving given he’s yet to endure a full pro season without a suspension for one incident or another. Dukes will get the early starts in left field while Wily Mo Peña recovers from a strained oblique. The best-case return for Peña is late April.
Over in right will be Austin Kearns who is likely to bat fifth in the order. Outfield reserves are Willie Harris and Ryan Langerhans currently, though Harris has been a player mentioned in a few trade possibilities.
If I asked you which regular among this year’s position players is the only Nationals player to be entering his fourth season with the club, would your first guess be Ryan Zimmerman? If so, go pull a cold and crispy beer from the fridge for your just reward. Zimmy is back at third and, according to my gut, about to come of age this year with an all-around solid season.
Across the diamond at first we should see Nick Johnson get the majority of at bats, especially when a right-hander starts. Dmitri Young will back him up. Aaron Boone could also see some time at first as well as spelling Zimmerman at third.
The middle of the infield will find Ronnie Belliard at second and Cristian Guzman at short. But Guzman will be on a short leash following a shaky spring, especially in the field. Felipe Lopez could move into the SS job very soon, and also serves as the reserve at second to open the season.
Brian Schneider, who caught 358 games for the Nationals since their move from Montreal after the 2004 season, made his way north to the Big Apple this winter with the Mets’ former backstop Paul Lo Duca traveling south along the coast to DC to be the Washington backstop. The Nats also picked up Johnny Estrada in the offseason, but Estrada will start the year on the DL due to an elbow problem. With Lo Duca also battling some knee trouble that means we could see third-string catcher Jesus Flores several times in the first few weeks.
Key Player(s): If the entire pitching staff repeated their 2007 performances, and that’s not as improbable as it might sound, then it puts the entire offense on this list. Milledge will be key, a breakout season from Zimmerman would be huge, and someone like Kearns or Nick Johnson finally realizing their potential would go a long way. Then again, this is a team that seems destined to lose 90 times, so how critical is anyone?
Futures: Washington is +3300 to win the NL East at 5Dimes, with the shop offering +7500 for the Nats to win the NL Pennant. TheGreek set the break on their win totals at 70½, pricing the Over at -140 and the Under at +120.
According to my simulations, that +120 on the Under has some value with the Nationals averaging 68.2 in the five runs. This is a tough team to cap this year since we don’t really know what to expect from the new stadium, but it would appear that they will struggle to avoid the 90-loss plateau.