Arizona out to prove '07 no fluke
Feb 15, 2008
Lost in the steroid noise last season was the Diamondbacks shocking MLB pundits with the best record in the NL. With Dan Haren now in the mix, Arizona won't surprise anyone in '08.
There were a lot of great stories on MLB diamonds in 2007 that were pushed aside by the steroids nonsense. The Arizona Diamondbacks were one of them.
Picked by most to finish no better than third in the NL West, the Desert Snakes instead posted the best record in the National League. And most amazing of all was the fact they managed to win 90 games without much help at all from their biggest free agent acquisition, left-hander Randy Johnson.
When I ran my simulations just as camps opened last February, I noted that Arizona’s win totals “jumped around like a butterfly with hiccups,” posting as low as 73 wins and as high as 86. No way they’d reach 86, or so I thought, without a strong year from the Big Unit.
Now another year older and another ace deeper – Two aces deeper if Johnson really is recovered from back surgery – the Diamondbacks seem poised for another postseason run, a run that just fell short of their second World Series appearance in their 11 short seasons when they ran into a red-hot Rockies club in the NLCS.
PITCHING
Entering the 2007 season, my primary concern for Arizona was their bullpen. Jose Valverde was off a 2006 campaign during which is ERA approached 6.00, and his supporting relievers – Tony Peña, Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz – hadn’t set the stat columns on fire themselves.
That foursome responded with solid numbers as Valverde led the majors with 47 saves while Peña, Lyon and Cruz combined for a 3.02 ERA in an out over 220 innings and 201 appearances. Toss in Doug Slaten’s lefty specialist work throughout the season (a nice 2.72 ERA despite a rather lofty 1.51 WHIP), and the bullpen did its job.
Valverde is gone now, shipped to Houston in exchange for pitchers Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez and second baseman Chris Burke. So there is some question about whether or not Lyon will claim – and hold – the closer’s job. But overall, the group is at least as strong as it was entering last season.
If Johnson really is healthy and ready to make 30 or so starts this year, the Diamondbacks have arguably the best rotation in the NL. Brandon Webb is the ace of the staff, without question, and Arizona also added Dan Haren through a trade with Oakland, plus have a second southpaw, Doug Davis. Right now, the rotation stacks up with Webb coming out of Chute No. 1 followed by Johnson, Haren, Davis and Micah Owings who made as much noise in 2007 with his bat as the former third-round pick out of Tulane made with his arm.
When needed, Yusmeiro Petit will get the call for the rotation, with Gutierrez another possibility. Petit could even force his way into the five-hole of the order with a solid spring.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
It’s a good thing the pitching staff did come through in 2007 as the offense was lacking for the most part. Having at least two young stars playing in their first full MLB seasons in your lineup most days can do that to a team. Arizona ranked 14th in the Senior Circuit in runs, outscoring only the Giants and Nationals, and were the worst in the NL on the road with just 4.02 runs per game.
The D-Backs did pop 171 taters, a middling number in the NL, and swiped 109 bags, good for fifth in the league.
Outfielder Eric Byrnes and second baseman Orlando Hudson were the most consistent offensive threats in a batting order that included two of the most productive low-average hitters in the league. Rookie outfielder Chris B. Young (.237) led the team with 32 homers and added 27 steals plus 68 RBI, second on the team, while shortstop Stephen Drew (.238) contributed a dozen bombs and 60 each runs and RBI. They also combined for 241 strikeouts in 1,243 plate appearances against just 103 walks. Look for both to improve across the board in 2008.
Chris Snyder (.775 OPS, 13 HR) should get the bulk of the time behind the plate with Conor Jackson (.835, 15 HR) and Mark Reynolds (.844, 17 HR), a very nice surprise for the D-Backs a year ago) will complete the infield at the corners. An unknown at this time is Chad Tracy who suffered a knee injury last season, opening the door for Reynolds, and saw his rehab complicated by blood clots in December.
With Byrnes in left and Young in center, that leaves right field to former No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton who managed to get into 43 games last season.
The wonder sub on the team this year might be Burke who played all three outfield slots and the two middle infield positions for Houston over the past four seasons. Augie Ojeda is also around for infield depth, but other than Burke, the outfield depth is a bit thin right now with just Burke and Jeff Salazar.
Overall, I rate the team above average on defense.
Key Player(s): Getting the bullpen shuffle settled would be my primary concern if I was manager Bob Melvin. And the development of both Drew and Young will be critical. The starting rotation is deep, and could afford an injury, but there really isn’t a lot of depth elsewhere.
Futures: I haven’t found win totals yet, so it’s impossible to pick an Over/Under on that. They should be up in the very near future, however. But I did pickup the Diamondbacks at 8:1 to win the NL in Vegas a while back, so I do possess at least a modicum of confidence in them. I ran five sims, three ‘regulars’ and one each ‘worst case’ and ‘best case.’ Arizona’s win totals were 82, 89, 90, 90 and 94. I really like 90-91 for them this year, so we’ll wait and see where the totals futures land for the Diamondbacks.
Feb 15, 2008
Lost in the steroid noise last season was the Diamondbacks shocking MLB pundits with the best record in the NL. With Dan Haren now in the mix, Arizona won't surprise anyone in '08.
There were a lot of great stories on MLB diamonds in 2007 that were pushed aside by the steroids nonsense. The Arizona Diamondbacks were one of them.
Picked by most to finish no better than third in the NL West, the Desert Snakes instead posted the best record in the National League. And most amazing of all was the fact they managed to win 90 games without much help at all from their biggest free agent acquisition, left-hander Randy Johnson.
When I ran my simulations just as camps opened last February, I noted that Arizona’s win totals “jumped around like a butterfly with hiccups,” posting as low as 73 wins and as high as 86. No way they’d reach 86, or so I thought, without a strong year from the Big Unit.
Now another year older and another ace deeper – Two aces deeper if Johnson really is recovered from back surgery – the Diamondbacks seem poised for another postseason run, a run that just fell short of their second World Series appearance in their 11 short seasons when they ran into a red-hot Rockies club in the NLCS.
PITCHING
Entering the 2007 season, my primary concern for Arizona was their bullpen. Jose Valverde was off a 2006 campaign during which is ERA approached 6.00, and his supporting relievers – Tony Peña, Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz – hadn’t set the stat columns on fire themselves.
That foursome responded with solid numbers as Valverde led the majors with 47 saves while Peña, Lyon and Cruz combined for a 3.02 ERA in an out over 220 innings and 201 appearances. Toss in Doug Slaten’s lefty specialist work throughout the season (a nice 2.72 ERA despite a rather lofty 1.51 WHIP), and the bullpen did its job.
Valverde is gone now, shipped to Houston in exchange for pitchers Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez and second baseman Chris Burke. So there is some question about whether or not Lyon will claim – and hold – the closer’s job. But overall, the group is at least as strong as it was entering last season.
If Johnson really is healthy and ready to make 30 or so starts this year, the Diamondbacks have arguably the best rotation in the NL. Brandon Webb is the ace of the staff, without question, and Arizona also added Dan Haren through a trade with Oakland, plus have a second southpaw, Doug Davis. Right now, the rotation stacks up with Webb coming out of Chute No. 1 followed by Johnson, Haren, Davis and Micah Owings who made as much noise in 2007 with his bat as the former third-round pick out of Tulane made with his arm.
When needed, Yusmeiro Petit will get the call for the rotation, with Gutierrez another possibility. Petit could even force his way into the five-hole of the order with a solid spring.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
It’s a good thing the pitching staff did come through in 2007 as the offense was lacking for the most part. Having at least two young stars playing in their first full MLB seasons in your lineup most days can do that to a team. Arizona ranked 14th in the Senior Circuit in runs, outscoring only the Giants and Nationals, and were the worst in the NL on the road with just 4.02 runs per game.
The D-Backs did pop 171 taters, a middling number in the NL, and swiped 109 bags, good for fifth in the league.
Outfielder Eric Byrnes and second baseman Orlando Hudson were the most consistent offensive threats in a batting order that included two of the most productive low-average hitters in the league. Rookie outfielder Chris B. Young (.237) led the team with 32 homers and added 27 steals plus 68 RBI, second on the team, while shortstop Stephen Drew (.238) contributed a dozen bombs and 60 each runs and RBI. They also combined for 241 strikeouts in 1,243 plate appearances against just 103 walks. Look for both to improve across the board in 2008.
Chris Snyder (.775 OPS, 13 HR) should get the bulk of the time behind the plate with Conor Jackson (.835, 15 HR) and Mark Reynolds (.844, 17 HR), a very nice surprise for the D-Backs a year ago) will complete the infield at the corners. An unknown at this time is Chad Tracy who suffered a knee injury last season, opening the door for Reynolds, and saw his rehab complicated by blood clots in December.
With Byrnes in left and Young in center, that leaves right field to former No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton who managed to get into 43 games last season.
The wonder sub on the team this year might be Burke who played all three outfield slots and the two middle infield positions for Houston over the past four seasons. Augie Ojeda is also around for infield depth, but other than Burke, the outfield depth is a bit thin right now with just Burke and Jeff Salazar.
Overall, I rate the team above average on defense.
Key Player(s): Getting the bullpen shuffle settled would be my primary concern if I was manager Bob Melvin. And the development of both Drew and Young will be critical. The starting rotation is deep, and could afford an injury, but there really isn’t a lot of depth elsewhere.
Futures: I haven’t found win totals yet, so it’s impossible to pick an Over/Under on that. They should be up in the very near future, however. But I did pickup the Diamondbacks at 8:1 to win the NL in Vegas a while back, so I do possess at least a modicum of confidence in them. I ran five sims, three ‘regulars’ and one each ‘worst case’ and ‘best case.’ Arizona’s win totals were 82, 89, 90, 90 and 94. I really like 90-91 for them this year, so we’ll wait and see where the totals futures land for the Diamondbacks.
