Late money

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Late money
    Is it just me, or has "late money" been wrong in nearly every playoff game so far?

  • paco
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 05-07-09
    • 62873

    #2
    Comment
    • sportsguy04
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-21-08
      • 11885

      #3
      Late money to me doesn't mean a whole lot. I won't base my pick based off the late money.
      Comment
      • Pauulzcappin
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-23-10
        • 20295

        #4
        I totally ignored line movement to make my play, I thought I had a better read than sharps. ]

        Looks like they'll get buried on this game if texas holds up.
        Comment
        • GiveMeaBJ
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-08-09
          • 8449

          #5
          I don't understand line movement in baseball. I get it in all other sports. Baseball to me just never seems to make any sense. Anyone who would care to teach me I can throw you some points.
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
            I totally ignored line movement to make my play, I thought I had a better read than sharps. ]

            Looks like they'll get buried on this game if texas holds up.
            Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't late money on Tampa yesterday and today? I guess you could say the Phils and Yanks were hit late, but not a lot. PHI opened at -201 and closed at -208, and they were a big public play.
            Comment
            • kmarinouofm
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-26-09
              • 8437

              #7
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              Is it just me, or has "late money" been wrong in nearly every playoff game so far?


              there is a theory that you should follow day games during the weekdays in these playoff games.. and avoid it during the evening.. due to the joe's hitting the night games cause they are home and watching...

              I am not sure i put any stock in this.. but i think its a decent theory
              Comment
              • Pauulzcappin
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-23-10
                • 20295

                #8
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't late money on Tampa yesterday and today? I guess you could say the Phils and Yanks were hit late, but not a lot. PHI opened at -201 and closed at -208, and they were a big public play.
                Line was all over the place on Phillies game and it was a 90ish% public play, that's pretty sick.

                There's been big money on Tampa today all day. joes and sharps
                Comment
                • Rixsaw
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-23-08
                  • 4532

                  #9
                  I took the Reds yesterday because 90% was on the Phil.
                  Comment
                  • TylerDurden
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-06-10
                    • 1427

                    #10
                    Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ
                    I don't understand line movement in baseball. I get it in all other sports. Baseball to me just never seems to make any sense. Anyone who would care to teach me I can throw you some points.
                    Really depends upon if you're talking ml movement or RL movement. The ML can be a bit deceiving if it's high (-170 on up for example) but take the the NYY tonight:

                    10/07 17:57 -116 / +109
                    10/07 17:58 -117 / +110
                    10/07 18:05 -118 / +111
                    10/07 18:06 -119 / +112
                    10/07 18:11 -121 / +114

                    The line goes from -116 on the Yanks to -121 in like 20 min..obv late money on NYY ML.

                    As for the -1.5RL movement, because there is no "spread" so to speak, you again have to follow the juice on the RL.

                    RUNLINES
                    10/07 10:30 -1½ +146 / +1½ -159
                    10/07 11:08 -1½ +143 / +1½ -155
                    10/07 12:10 -1½ +142 / +1½ -154
                    10/07 13:38 -1½ +146 / +1½ -159
                    10/07 14:01 -1½ +143 / +1½ -155
                    10/07 14:13 -1½ +140 / +1½ -152
                    10/07 14:16 -1½ +138 / +1½ -150
                    10/07 14:17 -1½ +141 / +1½ -153
                    10/07 16:35 -1½ +140 / +1½ -152
                    10/07 17:09 -1½ +141 / +1½ -153
                    10/07 17:31 -1½ +138 / +1½ -150
                    10/07 17:54 -1½ +136 / +1½ -148
                    10/07 18:08 -1½ +135 / +1½ -146

                    This not a drastic movement, but you can see that as money comes in on the yanks, the payout starts diving (notice it goes back and forth until the last hour, then it dives down like 6% indicating late money on NYY).

                    I'm no line expert, so sorry if this sounds super basic, but you essentially have to follow the juice in MLB as the spread doesn't shift at all. Also how high or low the total is set at makes a big difference.
                    Comment
                    • TylerDurden
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-06-10
                      • 1427

                      #11
                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                      Is it just me, or has "late money" been wrong in nearly every playoff game so far?

                      Yeah it has been a bit off so far I agree NoCo.
                      Comment
                      • No coincidences
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-18-10
                        • 76300

                        #12
                        Originally posted by TylerDurden
                        Yeah it has been a bit off so far I agree NoCo.
                        It was also off big-time in the MNF game, and in the two college games so far this week.
                        Comment
                        • JR007
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-21-10
                          • 5279

                          #13
                          Late money is not all what it seems....read the Conquering Risk Book ....you will look at it in a "different way"
                          Comment
                          • TylerDurden
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-06-10
                            • 1427

                            #14
                            Originally posted by JR007
                            Late money is not all what it seems....read the Conquering Risk Book ....you will look at it in a "different way"
                            From my experience if I am not sold on a read, following late money will more often than not make you money. It's like basic investing, you wouldn't buy a stock without all the possible information you could gather, so (aside from getting a certain number early of course) the smart money is going to be late money. Haven't read the book but I'll check it out. I'd rather be with late money than against it in most cases, but that certainly doesn't mean it's always right. just smart.
                            Comment
                            • vyomguy
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-08-09
                              • 5794

                              #15
                              Answer to your question in 3 words "PICK YOUR SPOTS".
                              Comment
                              • JR007
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-21-10
                                • 5279

                                #16
                                TD......there is a important piece in the book related to scalps......ie books taking a position.....due to unbalanced action......something...I would never think of....it is worth the money.....
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #17
                                  Struck back this evening with the Yankees and the under.

                                  Late $$$ was on the SF/ATL under as well.
                                  Comment
                                  • $Burm$
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 12-03-09
                                    • 3019

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                    Struck back this evening with the Yankees and the under.

                                    Late $$$ was on the SF/ATL under as well.
                                    yah im glad i waited on this over, i saw that and made it a no play
                                    Comment
                                    • TylerDurden
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-06-10
                                      • 1427

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by JR007
                                      TD......there is a important piece in the book related to scalps......ie books taking a position.....due to unbalanced action......something...I would never think of....it is worth the money.....
                                      Okay I might have to check it out then...what's the author's name do you know? Also any idea on where I would find that...I'm somewhat skeptical the library or bookstore is going to have a book like that lol
                                      Comment
                                      • JR007
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-21-10
                                        • 5279

                                        #20
                                        Sbr bookstore....
                                        Comment
                                        • Bostongambler
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-01-08
                                          • 35581

                                          #21
                                          I know the TB late money went down
                                          Comment
                                          • lakerboy
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 04-02-09
                                            • 94379

                                            #22
                                            There was no REAL money on TB late. That was the books moving the line a little bit to get action on TB. Late moeny cant be used all the time. You gotta look at the trickles of money that was right on almost every game so far. THere was trickles of money on the yanks on both games that moved there ML and RL's. Same case with SF last night.
                                            Comment
                                            • Bostongambler
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 02-01-08
                                              • 35581

                                              #23
                                              Of course there WAS real money coming in on TB. Books didn't and wouldn't move 20cents on trying to get people to bet TB. Are you serious?
                                              Comment
                                              • lakerboy
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 04-02-09
                                                • 94379

                                                #24
                                                The Greek only move 6 cents on TB. thats not enough for me to think there was serious money on TB.
                                                Comment
                                                • ROFLcopter
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 4446

                                                  #25
                                                  LB how do you tell the difference between real money and when books are just fukking around? This is something I have trouble spotting

                                                  Edit: ok think you just answered my question right above
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Bostongambler
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-01-08
                                                    • 35581

                                                    #26
                                                    I didn't save yesterdays screen printout ,but I believe Oly. moved much more than 6 cents. I know betcris moved from -120 to -135. and then down a little. But it was money coming in on TB
                                                    Comment
                                                    • lakerboy
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 04-02-09
                                                      • 94379

                                                      #27
                                                      You can check sbr odds,
                                                      Comment
                                                      • $Burm$
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 12-03-09
                                                        • 3019

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Bostongambler
                                                        I didn't save yesterdays screen printout ,but I believe Oly. moved much more than 6 cents. I know betcris moved from -120 to -135. and then down a little. But it was money coming in on TB
                                                        i dont see the betcris line ever getting to -135
                                                        Comment
                                                        • lakerboy
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 04-02-09
                                                          • 94379

                                                          #29
                                                          Looks like late money was on ATL.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • paco
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 05-07-09
                                                            • 62873

                                                            #30
                                                            Lb, I know u will use ur tool which has bought u tons of cash but like today, I got both my braves and reds TT at + money. Braves +110 and Reds +105, and yesterdays Twins TT over was juiced as high as -125, is there a explanation or am I reading it wrong or is it just a situation where the tool works more than loses and these were the instances it faultered?

                                                            I like to use late magic over late money
                                                            Comment
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