Late money

paco · 10-07-10, 03:38 PM

sportsguy04 · 10-07-10, 03:40 PM

Late money to me doesn't mean a whole lot. I won't base my pick based off the late money.

Pauulzcappin · 10-07-10, 03:41 PM

I totally ignored line movement to make my play, I thought I had a better read than sharps. ]

Looks like they'll get buried on this game if texas holds up.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-07-10, 03:43 PM

I don't understand line movement in baseball. I get it in all other sports. Baseball to me just never seems to make any sense. Anyone who would care to teach me I can throw you some points.

No coincidences · 10-07-10, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

I totally ignored line movement to make my play, I thought I had a better read than sharps. ]

Looks like they'll get buried on this game if texas holds up.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't late money on Tampa yesterday and today? I guess you could say the Phils and Yanks were hit late, but not a lot. PHI opened at -201 and closed at -208, and they were a big public play.

kmarinouofm · 10-07-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Is it just me, or has "late money" been wrong in nearly every playoff game so far?

there is a theory that you should follow day games during the weekdays in these playoff games.. and avoid it during the evening.. due to the joe's hitting the night games cause they are home and watching...

I am not sure i put any stock in this.. but i think its a decent theory

Pauulzcappin · 10-07-10, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't late money on Tampa yesterday and today? I guess you could say the Phils and Yanks were hit late, but not a lot. PHI opened at -201 and closed at -208, and they were a big public play.

Line was all over the place on Phillies game and it was a 90ish% public play, that's pretty sick.

There's been big money on Tampa today all day. joes and sharps

Rixsaw · 10-07-10, 03:54 PM

I took the Reds yesterday because 90% was on the Phil.

TylerDurden · 10-07-10, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

I don't understand line movement in baseball. I get it in all other sports. Baseball to me just never seems to make any sense. Anyone who would care to teach me I can throw you some points.

Really depends upon if you're talking ml movement or RL movement. The ML can be a bit deceiving if it's high (-170 on up for example) but take the the NYY tonight:

10/07 17:57 -116 / +109
10/07 17:58 -117 / +110
10/07 18:05 -118 / +111
10/07 18:06 -119 / +112
10/07 18:11 -121 / +114

The line goes from -116 on the Yanks to -121 in like 20 min..obv late money on NYY ML.

As for the -1.5RL movement, because there is no "spread" so to speak, you again have to follow the juice on the RL.

RUNLINES
10/07 10:30 -1½ +146 / +1½ -159
10/07 11:08 -1½ +143 / +1½ -155
10/07 12:10 -1½ +142 / +1½ -154
10/07 13:38 -1½ +146 / +1½ -159
10/07 14:01 -1½ +143 / +1½ -155
10/07 14:13 -1½ +140 / +1½ -152
10/07 14:16 -1½ +138 / +1½ -150
10/07 14:17 -1½ +141 / +1½ -153
10/07 16:35 -1½ +140 / +1½ -152
10/07 17:09 -1½ +141 / +1½ -153
10/07 17:31 -1½ +138 / +1½ -150
10/07 17:54 -1½ +136 / +1½ -148
10/07 18:08 -1½ +135 / +1½ -146

This not a drastic movement, but you can see that as money comes in on the yanks, the payout starts diving (notice it goes back and forth until the last hour, then it dives down like 6% indicating late money on NYY).

I'm no line expert, so sorry if this sounds super basic, but you essentially have to follow the juice in MLB as the spread doesn't shift at all. Also how high or low the total is set at makes a big difference.

TylerDurden · 10-07-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Is it just me, or has "late money" been wrong in nearly every playoff game so far?

Yeah it has been a bit off so far I agree NoCo.

No coincidences · 10-07-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by TylerDurden

Yeah it has been a bit off so far I agree NoCo.

It was also off big-time in the MNF game, and in the two college games so far this week.

JR007 · 10-07-10, 05:28 PM

Late money is not all what it seems....read the Conquering Risk Book ....you will look at it in a "different way"

TylerDurden · 10-07-10, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Late money is not all what it seems....read the Conquering Risk Book ....you will look at it in a "different way"

From my experience if I am not sold on a read, following late money will more often than not make you money. It's like basic investing, you wouldn't buy a stock without all the possible information you could gather, so (aside from getting a certain number early of course) the smart money is going to be late money. Haven't read the book but I'll check it out. I'd rather be with late money than against it in most cases, but that certainly doesn't mean it's always right. just smart.

vyomguy · 10-07-10, 05:39 PM

Answer to your question in 3 words "PICK YOUR SPOTS".

JR007 · 10-07-10, 09:07 PM

TD......there is a important piece in the book related to scalps......ie books taking a position.....due to unbalanced action......something...I would never think of....it is worth the money.....

No coincidences · 10-07-10, 09:11 PM

Struck back this evening with the Yankees and the under.

Late $$$ was on the SF/ATL under as well.

$Burm$ · 10-07-10, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Struck back this evening with the Yankees and the under.

Late $$$ was on the SF/ATL under as well.

yah im glad i waited on this over, i saw that and made it a no play

TylerDurden · 10-07-10, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by JR007

TD......there is a important piece in the book related to scalps......ie books taking a position.....due to unbalanced action......something...I would never think of....it is worth the money.....

Okay I might have to check it out then...what's the author's name do you know? Also any idea on where I would find that...I'm somewhat skeptical the library or bookstore is going to have a book like that lol

JR007 · 10-08-10, 09:20 AM

Sbr bookstore....

Bostongambler · 10-08-10, 09:47 AM

I know the TB late money went down

lakerboy · 10-08-10, 09:52 AM

There was no REAL money on TB late. That was the books moving the line a little bit to get action on TB. Late moeny cant be used all the time. You gotta look at the trickles of money that was right on almost every game so far. THere was trickles of money on the yanks on both games that moved there ML and RL's. Same case with SF last night.

Bostongambler · 10-08-10, 10:05 AM

Of course there WAS real money coming in on TB. Books didn't and wouldn't move 20cents on trying to get people to bet TB. Are you serious?

lakerboy · 10-08-10, 10:09 AM

The Greek only move 6 cents on TB. thats not enough for me to think there was serious money on TB.

ROFLcopter · 10-08-10, 10:10 AM

LB how do you tell the difference between real money and when books are just fukking around? This is something I have trouble spotting

Edit: ok think you just answered my question right above

Bostongambler · 10-08-10, 10:22 AM

I didn't save yesterdays screen printout ,but I believe Oly. moved much more than 6 cents. I know betcris moved from -120 to -135. and then down a little. But it was money coming in on TB

lakerboy · 10-08-10, 10:28 AM

You can check sbr odds,

$Burm$ · 10-08-10, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

I didn't save yesterdays screen printout ,but I believe Oly. moved much more than 6 cents. I know betcris moved from -120 to -135. and then down a little. But it was money coming in on TB

i dont see the betcris line ever getting to -135

lakerboy · 10-08-10, 11:39 PM

Looks like late money was on ATL.

paco · 10-09-10, 12:18 AM

Lb, I know u will use ur tool which has bought u tons of cash but like today, I got both my braves and reds TT at + money. Braves +110 and Reds +105, and yesterdays Twins TT over was juiced as high as -125, is there a explanation or am I reading it wrong or is it just a situation where the tool works more than loses and these were the instances it faultered?

I like to use late

magic over late money